# Am I being outright reckless?



## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

So. I'm currently a little bit south of Fort Pierce, FL, and pointed south.

I've had a number of discussions about this. Obviously, heading south puts me in the hurricane zone. However, if you run the numbers, the chances of actually getting hit by a hurricane are pretty small. Of course, the counter argument to that is that getting hit is a major life-threatening disaster.

I've pointed out a few times that if a hurricane does pop up and threaten me, I can hop into the gulf stream and run north to get out of the way. When I tell people that, they generally nod like it's a reasonable emergency plan.

However, it took me a lot longer to get the boat ready to go than I expected. And after a few days living at anchor, moving south ... I'm starting to have second thoughts about whether my skills are well enough developed to "go offshore and run north" should I need to.

Maybe in typing this I've already made up my mind, but I thought I'd open it up for discussion. I hear the Chesapeake is lovely in the summer, and mostly safe from life-threatening storms ... maybe I should just make that my home for the summer?


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

Reckless is very subjective


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

RegisteredUser said:


> Reckless is very subjective


Can't argue with that. However, I think that's part of the problem. When I try to get advice on whether my plan is a good one, it _sounds_ well thought-out, so a lot of people subjectively assume I'm not being reckless.

But I'm starting to have second thoughts. No matter how much research I did into the plan. Maybe I don't have enough experience to actually execute it?


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## gulfsail (Feb 22, 2013)

Well, it's going to work out fine.

Unless it doesn't.

But if it's going to happen, it's going to happen out there...


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

You obviously do not have insurance, or this decision would have been made for you.

Running with the Gulf Stream North is easy and fast. You don't need to go all the way to the Chessie if a storm is coming. The bight of Georgia between Brunswick and Savanah is relatively free of direct storm hits, and those two places are inland.

However, this decision isn't as clear-cut and easy as you think. 

First, the chance of getting hit by a hurricane in the area you are in is actually large. The chances are only small when you play with the variables to make them that way. For example, include the entire state of Florida, and all years back to recorded time, and you may think that the chances are low. But include just the area between Ft. Pierce and Miami, and just the years of forecasted expected active hurricanes, and the chances are such that most insurance companies are forbidding boats to be in this area right now. In the recent past, there was a forecasted predictive lull in hurricanes in the SE US due to global weather patterns, and this area didn't see a hurricane for a decade. In the past 3yrs or so, the forecast predictions were for active hurricane seasons, and this area took 3 major storms that did considerable serious damage. They should have been even worse, but the storm paths took the most optimal paths through the area to do the minimal damage possible. If they hadn't danced such a fine line, the damage would have been widespread and catastrophic.

Second is the decision when to run North. We've played this game several times in several places in the US and Caribbean, and that decision is extremely hard to make correctly and without emotion. The best that you can hope for is that the time to leave is clear to you, and that the weather in the Gulf Stream North is amenable. If it isn't, you have put yourself between a rock and a hard place.

The safest bet is to run north as soon as a storm looks like it has a good probability of hitting your area. This is generally 1-2 weeks notice. However, the forecast path is highly uncertain then, and it is likely that you made the passage for no reason, or the storm hits you where you went (albeit, generally less dangerous).

The worse thing that will happen is that inertia and uncertainty sets in, you keep second guessing when to leave, talk to people in the same situation, and convince yourselves that the best course of action is to stay put.

You don't mention why you are in Ft. Pierce, or where you are headed South, but the summer cruising isn't very good there. The summer cruising isn't very good in the Chesapeake either in July/August, but it starts becoming good soon enough, where SE FL stays crappy until October/November (and isn't that good then).

On the other hand, you have made good progress South that will have to be regained the hard way against wind and current, or mind-numbing motoring in a ditch, to get back.

Clear as mud now?

Mark


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## bigdogandy (Jun 21, 2008)

Bill - as a frame of reference, my boat has been in Florida for over 30 years and has survived. She was within 50 miles of the eyes of hurricanes George’s, Charlie, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Irma. Storm prepped and tied to a dock or spiderwebbed across the mangroves each time. The key, in my opinion, is having a plan and being willing to secure the boat and evacuate yourself to a safe place.

And I found the Keys to be a great place for summer cruising - awesome snorkeling, good sailing conditions, and easy to find anchorages away from the mosquitos. 

YMMV, of course, but I don’t think it’s reckless to be in Florida during the season if you have a plan.


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## roverhi (Dec 19, 2013)

On the Western Pacific side hurricane tracks are pretty confined and relatively easy to avoid. Unfortunately that's not the case with the Western Atlantic storms. You can head south close to South America and stay clear of most storms. If you are in the hurricane zone there is a lot of ground to cover to get out of there way. The cone of their track is quite wide when they are far enough away to try and stay clear but you would have to sail hundreds of miles to the middle of nowhere to be safe. By the time the track is narrowed down the storms are imminent and not much time to get out of their way. Then of course is the fickleness of the tracks. Storms have been known to do 90 and even 180 degree turns, stop, or suddenly move at accelerated speeds. I'd want to have a hurricane hole within a days sail and not count on being able to outrun a storm. BTW, you aren't going to outrun a storm. They typically move way faster than even a super yacht can sail. There is hope of sailing at right angles to the storm's track and avoiding the worst of the wind and seas but you are still going to get dusted. If you leave days before the storm arrives and make the right decision in the direction to sail, you might get by without much discomfort. If you guess wrong, you'll be in a life or death situation in which luck will probably be the deciding factor whether you live or not. Last but not least, occasionally storms pop up out of nowhere and you better hope you're not in that nowhere.

I wouldn't count on being able to run away from a storm. Would put my money on a good hole to hide in or getting completely out of the danger zone.


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

colemj said:


> You obviously do not have insurance, or this decision would have been made for you.
> 
> Running with the Gulf Stream North is easy and fast. You don't need to go all the way to the Chessie if a storm is coming. The bight of Georgia between Brunswick and Savanah is relatively free of direct storm hits, and those two places are inland.
> 
> ...


Thanks for the detailed and helpful post.

To answer a few of your questions: I'm in Ft Pierce now and just leaving because a bunch of things went off the rails with the boat refit. The original plan was to be leaving for the Keys in November of last year, but due to a long series of events, I'm just getting off the dock now. I've been encouraged by a number of people that S Florida and the keys can be fun in the summer for people (like me) who don't like crowds, and was considering heading there anyway, if I could feel confident that I had a good hurricane plan.

Regaining lost ground sucks ... but sometimes life is toil.


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

bigdogandy said:


> Bill - as a frame of reference, my boat has been in Florida for over 30 years and has survived. She was within 50 miles of the eyes of hurricanes George's, Charlie, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Irma. Storm prepped and tied to a dock or spiderwebbed across the mangroves each time. The key, in my opinion, is having a plan and being willing to secure the boat and evacuate yourself to a safe place.
> 
> And I found the Keys to be a great place for summer cruising - awesome snorkeling, good sailing conditions, and easy to find anchorages away from the mosquitos.
> 
> YMMV, of course, but I don't think it's reckless to be in Florida during the season if you have a plan.


This is an interesting viewpoint. Unfortunately, I'm completely new to S Florida. I don't know many people. And I don't know where the good places are to lock the boat down for a hurricane. And I'm not sure how to figure all that out quickly. Aaaand ... the disturbance in the gulf right now has me thinking that I should really know these things _already_.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

bigdogandy said:


> Storm prepped and tied to a dock or spiderwebbed across the mangroves each time. The key, in my opinion, is having a plan and being willing to secure the boat and evacuate yourself to a safe place.


We've taken two hurricanes in FL similarly. However, at those times we were temporarily not cruising, and we had a car and a safe place to go to, where we already had food, water, etc.

Doing so while actively cruising is difficult. You are not going to find a dock, period. Even if you found a suitable mangrove creek, you probably aren't going to get there before locals do unless you hang out around it all summer. Then, how does one evacuate themselves - call Uber? From a backwater mangrove swamp in the middle of nowhere? If Uber did show up, where do you tell them to take you? The roads will be a standstill, and all hotels full or closed.

I agree with you for residents or not full-time on the boat, but it is a completely different situation for a transient cruiser.

Mark


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

BillMoran said:


> Thanks for the detailed and helpful post.
> 
> To answer a few of your questions: I'm in Ft Pierce now and just leaving because a bunch of things went off the rails with the boat refit. The original plan was to be leaving for the Keys in November of last year, but due to a long series of events, I'm just getting off the dock now. I've been encouraged by a number of people that S Florida and the keys can be fun in the summer for people (like me) who don't like crowds, and was considering heading there anyway, if I could feel confident that I had a good hurricane plan.
> 
> Regaining lost ground sucks ... but sometimes life is toil.


I referred to SE FL as sucky summer cruising, but I wasn't including the Keys in that. Those can be nice, although hot and buggy at times when the wind lies down.

However, this is probably the worse place in FL to be for a hurricane. There really isn't any safe holes or mangroves or anchorages - that place is a storm away from being wiped off the map completely.

One option if you have the support system and means is to just put the boat back on the hard in a relatively safe place/way for a month or two and visit family or friends. Personally, I wouldn't worry about the current weather system, but mid-August through September would be a good time for your boat to be tied down or otherwise safe, and you enjoying family or friends.

Mark


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

I stashed a fresh 600' spool of 3 strand before i left florida... prob have 2000' of rope on the boat if i stripped it down
More than a week out and the spaghetti is still crazy. 5 days you have a good guess. 3 days....worth a large bet.

Im in black point exumas now and there are no other cruisers here...zippo.
Last year i enjoyed the summer more than winter. Trade no fronts for possible hurricanes...add in lots of squalls..

Its always in my mind as i plan forward. Lots of mini plans...what ifs out the kazoo

My fave anchorages are empty anchorages
Its a blast...for me


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## gulfsail (Feb 22, 2013)

The good news is that the current disturbance isn't going to affect you.

There are plenty of people living on boats everywhere in Florida. You just need an idea of what you'll feel comfortable with doing in the event of a significant storm, so you can act decisively if and when it comes up.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

I've generally figured there were 3 hurricane seasons.
The first, early in the season, is usually storms that develop in the Gulf or off Central America and basically head NE.
The second is the storms that develop between Africa and the West Indies and depending on where the Atlantic high is located, they either go up the east coast or into the Caribbean and on to the Gulf or Central America.
The third one, late in the season, they mostly start in the Caribbean or very close to the islands and normally just meander west then recurve toward Bermuda much more slowly than the other two.
If I'm heading south, I'll chance the run from the NE to Bermuda in October if everything is clear on departure because Bermuda is only a 5-day trip, giving me plenty of time to make the trip. There I can get good weather info and hold up until I'm comfortable that I can do the 8 or 9 days to St. T. safely.
Of course, these are generalizations and the as the saying goes, the only certainty about hurricanes is their uncertainty, but with the info (not forecasts) available on the web these days, that saying is less true.
If you take the 'Thorny Path', you will have a better chance to find shelter and have plenty of stops available. If you make an offshore crossing, you could get caught and have no way to avoid a fast-moving storm. Remember, the only way to get out of a hurricane is to beat, running will only put you deeper into one. Having been in two at sea on sailboats, it is something I shall endeavor never to repeat, not that sitting on my boat in the most sheltered anchorage is something I would choose to do again, either!
As for running north in the Stream, you must consider if there is ANY possibility of encountering northerly winds, even just 25 knots, that choice could be just as fatal as a hurricane deep sea, if not more so!


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## Totuma (Jul 27, 2017)

capta said:


> ... Remember, the only way to get out of a hurricane is to beat, running will only put you deeper into one.
> As for running north in the Stream, you must consider if there is ANY possibility of encountering northerly winds, even just 25 knots, that choice could be just as fatal as a hurricane deep sea, if not more so!


Two comments here which interest me. Can you elaborate?
a


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## Yorksailor (Oct 11, 2009)

I have spent the last 30 years dealing with tropical systems in Florida, the Caribbean, the Pacific and Japan. The concept of going to sea, especially in the Gulf Stream, to out-run one is ridiculous and will get you killed!

Pay your insurance and be somewhere they will pay for a named storm.

Develop a valid plan with sufficient anchors and lines.

Identify locations where the boat has a chance of survival.

Leave the boat and find a bar built of concrete with small windows, a generator and more than 30 ft above sea level.

If you stop off in Miami I will give you my daylong 'hurricane preparedness course' I developed for www.CGSC.org after we had 50 boats damaged and sunk in hurricanes Wilma and Katrina...my boats have never been damaged in the 7 hurricanes/typhoons my wife and I have dealt with. Definitely a mixture of preparation and good luck!

If we still owned a cruising boat my wife and I would already be north of Hatteras or south of the hurricane zone!

Good luck.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

BillMoran said:


> However, if you run the numbers, the chances of actually getting hit by a hurricane are pretty small.


I've run these numbers twice.

2009 in Australia where I ended up anchored in a bay where 13 people had died in a hurricane (cyclone) 30 years before. We were hit by a catahory 5 cyclone and I thought I had just killed my girlfriend as well as myself.

2015 in the Caribbean when I stayed in the hurricane zone to get a low season price break on some boat work. Got hit by Cat 2 hurricane. It was OK only 1 guy was killed a few hundred meters from me.

So you're right. I haven't actually died. Your numbers are correct.

Mark


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## PhilCarlson (Dec 14, 2013)

@Totuma

Northerly winds in the gulf stream creates a particularly hazardous sea state: The wind blowing from the North interacts with the water (current flowing to the North) causes waves to build taller, steeper and move slower leading to "standing waves."

https://gcaptain.com/high-wind-wave-events-crossing-gulf-stream-explained/


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Totuma said:


> Two comments here which interest me. Can you elaborate?
> a


As I'm sure you know, hurricanes are circular storms. The wind blows about 15 degrees off the circle toward the eye and if you run you are going deeper into the storm. Beating is the fastest way out of the system. Reaching just prolongs your involvement in the system. 
Phil's post on the Stream was absolutely correct, if not a little understated. Seas in the Stream on any northerly vector from east to west can create waves very similar to those breaking on a beach and once you are in them there is no safe way to go, other than the shortest way out of the Stream.


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## mrWinter (May 2, 2018)

I hadn't seen all these charts before and thought some of them were interesting. Especially the return period ones. Interesting that Georgia and north Florida get hit significantly less than coasts either north or south. Perhaps sometimes it's better to aim for Georgia or north FL rather than try and make it all the way north of NC.


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

After reading all the comments as well as talking to a few other local cruisers, it seems like my original plan of running was more than a bit misguided. Better learning that now than later, I guess.

So, possible new plans:

A number of people have suggested that I head north and hang out around the Chesapeake or other areas. I'm not convinced that's actually a good plan, as the possibility of hurricane strength storms hitting that area isn't very low either.

Another plan would be to find a safe place to put the boat up for the summer, find something else to do for a while and come back in November.

Another plan would be to have a "home base" somewhere near a place where I could be reasonably sure that the boat would be safe (inland river with strong trees to tie to, or one of those places that guarantees you a haulout if a storm comes). In the even that a hurricane comes, secure the boat as best as possible, evacuate and hope for the best.

I think I like option #3 the best, but I'm at a bit of a loss as how to find a good place and assure that I will be able to use it in the event of a storm. And that's not an option that I'd be comfortable using unless I was very sure that it will work. (i.e. sure that I'm not going to get there and find that someone else has taken the spot)


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## Carl Huber (Jul 10, 2019)

RegisteredUser said:


> Reckless is very subjective


Indeed. When I asked a somewhat related question on this forum (or similar one) several years ago I received a mix of reactions spanning the entire spectrum, and the sum of which, on the whole, didn't answer the question, but I received some helpful advice and information in all those responses. So while that question is subjective and emotionally driven, it could be rephrased for more technical specifics, unless you really do find joy in the evoked responses. There certainly is some human-nature humor there!


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Your option three of having a home base isn't a bad idea. Asking around on sailing forums and reading through Active Captain can be a starting point. Learn how to prepare your boat if you have to haul for a storm and know where you're going once she's hauled (shelter, hotel, flight out, rental car, etc.).

Having been through a few nor'easters and two hurricanes I will say that you can't overprep or have too many lines. 

Geography plays a big part in it too. When Sandy was charging into the Jersey coast I made the call to move my boat to a different marina only half mile away but with an elevation about six feet higher. Our Marina got six feet of water and a lot of the boats on the hard were wrecked, where I hauled only got a few inches in the parking lot and no damaged boats. Everybody focuses on wind speed and where the eye makes landfall, but storm surge does the most damage.

If you get insurance through BoatUS they will pay half the cost of hauling for a named storm. Make the decision early and be decisive. I've hauled once when the storm fizzled out. I happily paid the yard bill.

There is a randomness to these storms that is mind bending. Big Pine Key and Cudjoe Key took the worst of hurricane Irma. My buddies house in Big Pine had relatively little damage. But several houses on his street were just decimated. The working theory had to do with tornadoes forming in the eye wall as it passed over. I just remember sitting on his deck sipping a beer after the storm. We were talking about re-taping drywall seams where the house flexed and all the houses around us were a total mess. 

Yes he storm prepped the house. But sometimes you're just lucky...


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

If you are in the path you will get clobbered....to degree of the strength
Maybe your homebase plan is in the next path...maybe not.
If youre mobile you need good wx info.
Surrounding elevation is a biggy. 
If hurricane is imminent out in the islands dont count on fuel being available...you waited too late. Stay fueled and watered.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Oh, and the only way to outrun a hurricane is in a car or a plane. :wink


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Bill, your reluctance to rely on a plan to run is wise. If you can get out early enough and have a good weather window to go and it's very certain where you're going is clear, it may work. This is the rub. All three are not always going to present themselves, as the process is stacked against you. Far enough out to run and you really don't know where the storm will be. If the storm is close enough that you're sure you're in the way, it's too late to be offshore. You might even breakdown underway. Still, if the events present themselves and it's safe, it's an option. It's plan B or probably C, at best.

Plan A should be to get yourself on someone hurricane haulout list. That's hard to do, as locals usually get first dibs. My home marina can not get everyone out with three days notice. We all decide whether we want to be on the list. I'm #11.

The idea of tying off to a tree in a hurricane hole can work. However, you really can't rely on that being accessible, as anyone could beat you to it.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

BillMoran said:


> So. I'm currently a little bit south of Fort Pierce, FL, and pointed south.
> 
> I've had a number of discussions about this. Obviously, heading south puts me in the hurricane zone. However, if you run the numbers, the chances of actually getting hit by a hurricane are pretty small. Of course, the counter argument to that is that getting hit is a major life-threatening disaster.
> 
> ...


The issue with running north with the Stream is.....you can break down. Why put yourself in that position . Maybe you roll snakeyes.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

One of the pains in the butt about running from a hurricane is it looks easy from afar, but when you are actually there is suddenly doesn't look easy at all!!

I have made this little pic of a 2017 hurricane and extended the daily tracking lines for each day. Hindsight is grand!  

If you decided to go early from Guadalupe you may have sailed right into the area the hurricane actually hit in St Martin and the BVIs!
If you had waited while it changed course each day you would have been at sea in a hurricane that grew to 500 nms wide. Even missing it by 2 days you're still dead.
If you had STAYED in St Martin or the BVIs you would have *thought* you were safe... until it was too late to move.

Then add one further consideration: Don't sail across the front of a hurricane.... you've heard that and its been mentioned here in this thread. But thats a problem as it cuts off 50% of your escape routes. However, we all know hurricanes *USUALLY* re-curve to the North, so you can't escape across any hurricane to the south of you as yoi would be crossing its path and you can't go North as you are going to get re-curved upon.

So really, there is no escape. (unless you are in a displacement motor boat capable of doing 8 to 10 knots in any conditions, up wind into 30 foot seas ... i.e ships or a Nordhavn.)


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## sailordave (Jun 26, 2001)

Just jumping in here quickly but think about this. You see a storm coming and you start sailing North. Regardless of whether it would have hit you where you were or not, you sail a significant distance.... and then sail back down, working hard to regain all that distance. You are putting a lot of miles on the boat (wear and tear) that didn't take you anywhere you wanted to be. And anytime you're at sea there is always the possibility of something going wrong. Mr. Murphy DOES show up sometimes. I could expound more, but gotta run!


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

JimMcGee said:


> Oh, and the only way to outrun a hurricane is in a car or a plane. :wink


I was serious.

I'm a weekender, not an ocean sailor. But given how many things can go wrong at sea with a hurricane approaching it just doesn't seem like a wise choice.

Ahead of Irma a sailor on a 27 footer left Marathon headed up the west coast of Florida toward Tampa.

The squalls thrown off in advance of a hurricane can be quite nasty and the boat was lost. They were the last rescue before the Coast Guard shut down ahead of the storm. Afterward there were stories circulating on the coconut telegraph about boats that left after them that hadn't been heard from.

We're building a home here. It's elevated, made of concrete and built to withstand 180 MPH winds. It's basically a CAT 5 storm shelter. But if it looks like we're going to take a direct hit from a CAT 3 or above the boat will be hauled, the house will be locked down and I'll be watching the Weather Channel from a safe spot far from the storm.

You only get one life...


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

outbound said:


> So on the hard in Grenada in a hurricane cradle lashed down to 5000lb blocks as per pantaenius requirements.


Outbound can you post a link to those Pantaenius requirements?

I did a Google search and came up empty.

Thanks,
Jim


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## PhilCarlson (Dec 14, 2013)

JimMcGee said:


> We're building a home here. It's elevated, made of concrete and built to withstand 180 MPH winds. It's basically a CAT 5 storm shelter. But if it looks like we're going to take a direct hit from a CAT 3 or above the boat will be hauled, the house will be locked down and I'll be watching the Weather Channel from a safe spot far from the storm.
> 
> You only get one life...


Right! Just because the bunker can take the hit doesn't mean you want to be in it when it does. Or after!


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

It’s in the policy itself. I apologize but don’t care to share that level of financial detail. Basically states need to be in a hurricane cradle or equivalent. Strapped down every 10’. Requirements for the straps. All canvas/sails etc. removed.
Pretty standard stuff. My prior insurance had the same in slightly different wording. Believe it’s now boilerplate across companies.
Your broker can pull it up for you and without my details. 

Just built a house in a totally low risk place. Plymouth MA 1 mile in from the bay. Still need 110mph wind rating for code. Put in 145mph as that was product we choose to get HERS we wanted. 

It’s a new world. Regardless of what our government does ( or doesn’t) the impacts of CC will continue to be felt. As sailors being ever more careful and vigilant seems wise.


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## Damon Gannon (Mar 3, 2017)

Chesapeake, Montauk, Block Island, Buzzards Bay, Narragansett Bay, Nantucket, Marthas Vineyard, Cape Cod, Maine, Canadian Maritimes...all beautiful places to explore during hurricane season. Statistically, even Georgia is a much better place to be than Central Florida (although when Georgia's number finally comes up, it could be ugly, given the contour of its coastline).

Storms often track up the FL coast in the Gulf Stream. Wouldn't want to be sailing north at 6-10 Knots with a hurricane bearing down on me at 20 knots. You won't be able to find an anchor berth in any reasonable hurricane hole less than 72 hours from landfall. The good hurricane holes fill up as soon as the possibliity of a storm is predicted. And don't ever expect to go anywhere in the ICW once a hurricane warning is issued. All bridges will remain closed to expedite evacuation of the barrier islands.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

4 posts deleted.


You want a political discussion then go to Politics, its in Off Topic. 


.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Bill, best of luck whichever way you decide to go. 

And let's hope no SailNetter's take a hit from a hurricane this year...


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## sailpower (Jun 28, 2008)

BillMoran said:


> After reading all the comments as well as talking to a few other local cruisers, it seems like my original plan of running was more than a bit misguided. Better learning that now than later, I guess.
> 
> So, possible new plans:
> 
> ...


Have you looked into Indiantown, FL?

Indiantown Marina - Home


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

sailpower said:


> Have you looked into Indiantown, FL?
> 
> Indiantown Marina - Home


I'm going to investigate that option after I get back to the marina (probably tomorrow) That sure seems like a "put the boat up and do something else for the summer" option.

That would be disappointing, but honestly, if I could find 3 months of work, the cruising kitty wouldn't mind the money going in.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

BillMoran said:


> I'm going to investigate that option after I get back to the marina (probably tomorrow) That sure seems like a "put the boat up and do something else for the summer" option.


While people do live there during the summer, it isn't pleasant weather, and not dynamic or exciting. Would definitely need good A/C. I'll probably take crap for saying that from someone who loves living in the place, but inland FL in the summer is brutal.

Mark


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

BillMoran said:


> That would be disappointing, but honestly, if I could find 3 months of work, the cruising kitty wouldn't mind the money going in.


"WORK"!!!

There's always better options than that word!

:grin


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> "WORK"!!!
> 
> There's always better options than that word!
> 
> :grin


I suppose I could hit the streets and sell my body for money ...


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## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

BillMoran said:


> I suppose I could hit the streets and sell my body for money ...


What are you going to do with that extra $1.75?


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

Minnesail said:


> What are you going to do with that extra $1.75?


I don't understand why you have to be so insulting ... I charge $1.75 PER HOUR!


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

Brutal is the correct adj
Without wind and good shade....you will quickly tell them what they want to know...


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Oh well, just to prove the point, "as the saying goes, the only certainty about hurricanes is their uncertainty" there's an African storm trying to build and head west toward the Windwards early in the season.
However, if the Atlantic high moves east and the storm becomes a hurricane, my guess is it will turn north at least a bit and our boat in Trinidad should be OK. A whole bunch of ifs at this time. Of course, even though Trini hasn't had a bad storm in ages, we did pay the extra bucks for hurricane tie downs. I sure hope she won't need them.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

What are hurricane tie downs?


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

Big ratchet straps and ground anchors


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

SanderO said:


> What are hurricane tie downs?


A proper hurricane tie down is a sand screw like those used for moorings with straps to the forward and aft cleats on a boat, as RU said. Most yards down here charge a reasonable fee to set them up, they are not DYS, and some even bury the keel in a hole, which I think is a brilliant idea unless there is a big storm surge!


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

capta said:


> A proper hurricane tie down is a sand screw like those used for moorings with straps to the forward and aft cleats on a boat, as RU said. Most yards down here charge a reasonable fee to set them up, they are not DYS, and some even bury the keel in a hole, which I think is a brilliant idea unless there is a big storm surge!


I know some places bury the hull... I presume close to the waterline depth... which should keep the hull upright. But the force on the rig could be severe. Is DYS the same as DIY - do it yourself?


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

SanderO said:


> I know some places bury the hull... I presume close to the waterline depth... which should keep the hull upright. But the force on the rig could be severe. Is DYS the same as DIY - do it yourself?


Yes. Just another sign I'm getting old I guess.
I believe if one's rig can't stand that sort of pressure, with all sails and booms removed, one might be in a bit of a pickle when sailing and something like a severe squall hits.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

capta said:


> Yes. Just another sign I'm getting old I guess.
> I believe if one's rig can't stand that sort of pressure, with all sails and booms removed, one might be in a bit of a pickle when sailing and something like a severe squall hits.


I know someone's boat whose boat was buried and an another one tipped over and the boom mast was destroyed in the collision...,but nothing else supposedly. This was in Antigua in the early 90s


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

mrWinter said:


> I hadn't seen all these charts before and thought some of them were interesting. Especially the return period ones. Interesting that Georgia and north Florida get hit significantly less than coasts either north or south. Perhaps sometimes it's better to aim for Georgia or north FL rather than try and make it all the way north of NC.


That map is really interesting. For one thing, it basically says that I'm at the extreme north of "The Really Bad Zone" If I were to move a few counties north it seems like my odds of getting hit would decrease dramatically ...

I got back to the marina yesterday and spoke briefly with the manager. He says that this is a good place to tie up and weather lower strength storms, as the marina is decently sheltered and has good, solid docks. Of course, a major storm is still going to trash everything, but even being tied up on land wouldn't be enough to protect against a direct hit from a major storm.

So, I'm still debating things. While the boat performed well this week, it didn't perform perfectly, and there are a few issues that really need to be addressed before I spend longer periods away from dock. That little excursion is making me think that I need to do more short trips with repairs and improvements in between before I'll be ready for longer trips anyway.

The question I'm faced with now is whether I do those cycles using Fort Pierce as a home base, or somewhere else, or put the boat up for the summer in Indiantown and start over with the sea trial cycles after storm season ... and if I do that last bit, where do I live and what do I do while the boat is lashed down in Indiantown?


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

It means early historical data is of less import than in the past. Regardless of your personal opinions about made man climate change it is evident we are in a rapidly changing transition period. Statistical odds of so many 100 y events and decrease height of the bell shaped curve would support this assertion. 
Would put little faith in data compiled over such a long period and ending in the main back in 2015. Rather wound simply get out of the zone or at least to an edge (Maine-Grenada). Even there you aren’t entirely out of risk but options are better. 
Yes local geography makes some areas within a region slightly less dangerous. But believe you are better served getting out of that region altogether.


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## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

outbound said:


> It means early historical data is of less import than in the past. Regardless of your personal opinions about made man climate change it is evident we are in a rapidly changing transition period. Statistical odds of so many 100 y events and decrease height of the bell shaped curve would support this assertion.
> Would put little faith in data compiled over such a long period and ending in the main back in 2015. Rather wound simply get out of the zone or at least to an edge (Maine-Grenada). Even there you aren't entirely out of risk but options are better.


Unfortunately, those statements are self-contradicting ...

The fact that recent weather appears to be different than past weather doesn't just affect the frequency and strength of storms. It also _might_ mean that areas that were reasonably safe in previous decades might get statistically more storms than they have in the past. I.e. heading north might not actually be reducing my chances of getting hit as weather patterns might be shifting to direct storms further north than has happened historically. We don't appear to have the technology yet to model the weather accurately to know how things are changing, so we can only accept that there are no guarantees.

Add to that my personal situation: this weeks trials of the boat revealed a handful of problems, the worst of which might leave the engine nonfunctional if not addressed. Now I have a situation where I have to consider the potential that if I leave now I might not make it to a better location and might end up stuck in a _worse_ location while I do repairs.

Is staying here a guarantee? Of course not. But right now I consider moving a greater risk. At least until I can assess these engine problems. However, time required to figure out what's wrong, wait for replacement parts to ship, put everything back together, then test everything out ... that could easily be 2 or 3 weeks given the random issues that tend to come up during boat projects.

I'm not saying that you're wrong ... actually I'm saying that your right, but things are even more complicated than you describe. Add in the unique situation that each individual has and you don't have an easy one size fits all solution.

Don't get me wrong, I'm really appreciating all the feedback that I'm getting on this thread. But it all has to be thrown into the great calculating machine with all the data I've collected from other sources as well as details about my situation that I might have forgotten to mention to others. I still don't have a full blown plan for the summer, but I feel that until I've at least sorted out these engine problems that staying here is the best option. Once I have a propulsion system that I can reasonably trust, I'll have to reassess things.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

FWIW, I think you’re evolving toward the traditional thinking. Unless you’re trucking your boat, don’t take it for long distances until you’ve had adequate shake-down time and established confidence in self and vessel. 

I’m not going to reread the thread, so forgive me if you’ve already considered this, but I’d get on a hurricane haulout list somewhere nearby and leave the boat in the water at a marina. If liveaboards are allowed, I’d get an inexpensive window air conditioner and configure it for your hatch or companionway, and spend your time on board until conditions force you to haul out and seek shelter.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

The zone is still the zone.Even the insurance companies agree. If you at either edge of the zone the incidence of events continues to be less and and opportunity to get out of harms way much greater. Cruising in Grenada or Maine is quite pleasant. Grenada world take you much more time to get to and requires passports and some difficult upwind sailing. Maine is your best choice and could be done quickly if done as a straight shot or long jumps. This would require experienced crew.
The trip back to L.I. Is not unpleasant in the fall. Sail directly to P’town. Go through the CC canal and down Buzzards Bay. A day after leaving Pigs and Sows you’re home.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

outbound said:


> The zone is still the zone.Even the insurance companies agree. If you at either edge of the zone the incidence of events continues to be less and and opportunity to get out of harms way much greater. Cruising in Grenada or Maine is quite pleasant. Grenada world take you much more time to get to and requires passports and some difficult upwind sailing. Maine is your best choice and could be done quickly if done as a straight shot or long jumps. This would require experienced crew.
> The trip back to L.I. Is not unpleasant in the fall. Sail directly to P'town. Go through the CC canal and down Buzzards Bay. A day after leaving Pigs and Sows you're home.


OP lacks confidence in his motor and appears to need significantly more shakedown time. That was the reason for my suggestion - it would seem that Maine is out or reach for quite awhile. So I suggest spending the hot season getting the boat in shape and sailing on every day that's not unbearably hot, and be ready to head to paradise after hurricane season.

There is no risk-free alternative for the boat (aside from trucking it out). Given the choice of risking his life or risking his vessel, I think the latter wins out. And if he can get on a hurricane haul-out list, the risk to his vessel is greatly reduced. However, I don't know that area at all, so maybe that's not available down there.

I know you know a lot more about this than I do, but you might not recall what it's like to have a new (to you) vessel that's not quite ready for prime time. If I'm wrong about that, I'll defer to your advice.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Would think even replacing the engine and transmission would take about a week or so. Still you have a very good point I hadn’t fully considered.
He will need a fully functional engine regardless of his summer plans. Hopefully he can find a good wrench, watch and learn. The experience should also help him learn what spares and tools to carry. I know for me it was a huge difference to be out cruising and not have immediate access to a WM or defenders and my own car. 
A big part of cruising skills is figuring out how to service and fix things and how to figure out who to use when it’s beyond you skill set.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Maine? That is certainly taking risk aversion too far. Grenada possibly not far enough.

Mark


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Last hurricane in Grenada was in 2004. Maine has been hit after that with several cyclonic storms. Both places allow a short sail within the time window of accurate storm prediction to get out of harms way. Trinidad and inner Maritimes.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

OP has no passports and sailing from Florida to Grenada is a bear. Maine is wonderful this time of year. Has awesome boat yards if he needs further refitting. His wife and kids will enjoy it. No, with all due respect Maine is the more viable choice.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Maine is an extreme for the OP. He only wants to avoid the most potential for a devastating storm, while still cruising and working on his boat. The Chesapeake or North Carolina is a much more reasonable suggestion than Maine, with equally good yard facilities that are usable 3 months further into the year. He can get there through day-hopping, and the intercoastal if weather is not cooperative, and be there in much shorter time. If he experiences issues, there are yards and facilities all along the way. Then there is the return trip - much more onerous from Maine than from the bottom of NC.

With all due respect, the OP would be silly to shoot up to Maine now.

Mark


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