# Ice on Lake Superior in June



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Shipping is due to start on Lake Superior tomorrow. Right now an ice breaker is clearing Duluth harbor of ice that is five-feet thick in places.

The captain of the ice-breaking tug said "Last year we were breaking ice on the 4th of May. This year will be worse. There's a lot of slips that will have to be opened up later in the season. I'm sure we' ll have ice with us way into June."

I was hoping to charter over Memorial Day weekend.... Sailing through ice, that would be a first for me!

As Duluth's icebreakers usher in spring, cargo shippers are anxious to begin work


----------



## jimgo (Sep 12, 2011)

Rent an ice boat over Memorial Day. Problem solved.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Yup ... our season is going to be very slow getting started this year.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Why Is Great Lakes Ice Nearing a Record High, While Arctic Ice Hits a Record Low? - weather.com

excerpt -

_From accuweather

research suggests that as the Arctic gets warmer, and the temperature difference between the North Pole and the equator gets smaller, *the jet stream's west-to-east winds get weaker*. "As those winds get weaker, the jet stream tends to take a wavier path, more northward and southward around the Northern Hemisphere," she explained in a conference call last week.

Why is this important? Because when it moves more in a north-south direction, the jet stream's waves get bigger and slower, she added. "And so the weather they create also moves more slowly, and it tends to feel like on the surface that we're in a pattern that just seems to get stuck."

This would seem to explain why weather events like this year's persistent cold spells across the eastern U.S. have lasted so long. Though Francis is careful to add that "we can't say the rapidly warming Arctic caused this pattern this year," she says it's "a great example of the kind of pattern we can expect to see happen more often as the globe, and the Arctic in particular, continue to warm."_

I have written on a couple of posts my own opinion that the Jet Stream is our problem , but, as some here have said, I am the "type of person who is inclined to believe it anyway"

This is also an informative historical study of ice on the Great Lakes. Cut to the chase, they have only frozen over maybe twice since 1900.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1990/19900009.pdf?origin=publication_detail


----------



## killarney_sailor (May 4, 2006)

I went a canoe trip in early May a number of years ago north or Toronto when the the ice was still in a bit on one lake. It was a warm day 20C and the ice was like crystal with all sorts of holes in it. When we got to where the ice piled up it was suddenly very cool, When we got through the ice it warmed up a lot. Fabulous day.


----------



## mad_machine (Dec 16, 2012)

not this crap again... take it to the gutter would you


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Sigh....



Chas H said:


> In the 1970s according to our government's best intelligence, the earth was heading into a new Ice Age, and ice caps would probably expand for hundreds of years.


Time and Newsweek ran cover stories about global cooling, but Time and Newsweek are popular media, not scientific journals. The popular media is generally a bad place to get your science information.

Climate science was in its infancy, but even then the consensus was that the planet would warm.

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
"However, these are media articles, not scientific studies. A survey of peer reviewed scientific papers from 1965 to 1979 show that few papers predicted global cooling (7 in total). Significantly more papers (42 in total) predicted global warming (Peterson 2008). The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2. Rather than 1970s scientists predicting cooling, the opposite is the case."



Chas H said:


> Remember when Al Gore said the global ice caps would be melted by 2012?


No I don't remember that. Could you post a link?

Anyway. Yes, huge ice on Superior this year and I still have two feet of snow in my garden. On the other hand two years ago it was 80ºF on St. Patrick's Day and we were grilling in the backyard.

I sent an email to the charter company asking them if they think they'll have the boats in and be operational on Memorial Day Weekend. Fingers crossed!


----------



## boatpoker (Jul 21, 2008)

The ice ages were obviously a result of over population and the warming trend that once turned southern Ontario into a tropical jungle were obviously caused by the aboriginal coal fired generating plants.


----------



## crichard (Nov 7, 2002)

Minnesail. Climate change denialists aside......... I've been sailing out of the western end of Lake Superior for over 20 years and have seen ice on the lake Memorial Day only once, maybe this will be the second one. But, the lake is ALWAYS cold that weekend. Nonetheless, those of use that appreciate the beauty of the lake and landscape even with a few ice floes about, still love to get out there. Temperature inversions at time of year can provide some amazing mirages. However, Palm trees won't be the issue. Take a comfy sleeping bag. 

The lake has clearly been increasing in ice-free days over the last several decades. As climate models have suggested, the amplitude of annual temperature swings is increasing over the lakes region, average Lake Superior temps are steadily increasing but the variance around that that increase has been madding for local sailors. A few years ago I launched our boat near the first of April, as you've noted, this won't be one of those years. Nonetheless, it's one of the most amazing cruising grounds in North America and worth the sufferage of these crappy winters. (At least that is what I keep telling myself).


----------



## Lake Superior Sailor (Aug 23, 2011)

Ice or not as soon as the paint dried I'm putting in! I got a lot of sailing I want to do.....Dale


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

I really wonder if the magnetic pole shifting has anything to do with it? I really do not know, really nothing I can do about it except wait for Mother Nature to open the door, so to say. Sitting here with below zero again just makes the anticipation all the better.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Its pretty much the jet stream doing it. But what steers the jet stream?


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I've been sailing Superior for 10 years now, and this is definitely the most ice I've seen so far. I'm sure we'll be seeing it deep in the bays into June. But once it starts to warm, and the wind gets going, the majority of it will break up pretty fast. We live right on the shoreline of Thunder Bay and I've been walking on thick, solid ice one day way offshore, and the next day it's open water. 

I'm less concerned about the ice than I am about all the snow. I've got a two meter wall of it surrounding my boat right now. I was hoping to get on board early in the Spring so I could get a jump on projects. Right now, with the cold and snow, I don't expect to get on board until May.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Sal Paradise said:


> But what steers the jet stream?


jets.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Chas H said:


> A "denialist" in the context of the global warming debate is simply a way of denigrating persons with a viewpoint other than your own.


No, it's not.
It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.

Quoting George Will on the climate change is like quoting Stephen Hawking on running a marathon. Smart guy, no real knowledge on the subject.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

The question is about ice on Lake Superior. Can I suggest that the irrational sceptics (like that better than "deniers"?) take your political fight elsewhere?


----------



## hotdogs (Mar 5, 2008)

Another interesting thread ruined by people who always try to steer the conversation towards their personal hobbyhorses.


----------



## Chas H (Sep 6, 2013)

MikeOReilly said:


> The question is about ice on Lake Superior. Can I suggest that the irrational sceptics (like that better than "deniers"?) take your political fight elsewhere?


Mike you are correct that this off topic banter should be moved to off topic threads.
My off topic responses have been deleted.

That reminds me of swimming in the shallow end of Eagle Harbor on Keweenaw Peninsula's north shore Memorial day once in the 1980s. Perhaps I have not thawed from the experience, thus have not warmed up to global warming.
-CH


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

BJJones has just insulted a large number of people who are very knowledgeable on this subject and for purely political reasons.
Man up and apologize.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Who did I insult, and how?


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

HOWEVER, as a joke, I often claim to be personally responsible for the global warming scientific fiasco. Here is the story.
In 1985, I was working on a defense contract for the Defense Nuclear Agency to develop a computer model of radar and infra-red effects of nuclear bursts in the upper atmosphere in order to predict the ability of missile defense systems to see incoming missiles against a background of Soviet nuke explosions in said atmosphere. This involved a huge computer model that took days to run on the fastest Cray supercomputer of the time. The heart of this model was the Air Force Geophysics Lab Atmospheric Model, the best atmospheric model of the time and what is now the atmosphere model used in most climate models. This computer model predicted the absorption and re-radiation of infra-red light by poly-atomic molecules in the atmosphere.
My job was to compare the model to actual data that had been obtained during the 1962 atmospheric nuclear test series using primitive Infra-red instruments. At any time after a few seconds of the burst, the model under-predicted atmospheric brightness by about 100X.
The modellers simply could not believe this could be true in spite of ALL of the data showing it. They said, "There simply isn't enough water vapor at those altitudes to cause it to be that bright". Being an experimentalist, I responded "Insert enough water vapor in your models and see what it predicts". They wouldn't do so but asked me to do so. So, I put in about 12 lines of code over-riding the calculations of water vapor density at high altitude with a fixed large amount. They told me they would later take my code out.
We ran the program, nearly 5 days on the Cray at the Strategic Defense Command in Huntsville. It still didn't predict enough brightness. The culprit didn't appear to be water vapor. About that time I changed jobs to do X-ray effects of nukes so I dont know what ever happened.
BUT, did they ever really change the code back (This was done with punch cards)? If not, all of the climate models still have my over-ride of water vapor concentration that will radically over-predict absorption of IR thus predicting much more warming than really happens.


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

Your description of "Denialists".


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

_"Ice on Lake Superior in June"_

... please.


----------



## crichard (Nov 7, 2002)

The big freighters are starting the shipping season this week. They've got the power to bust through it. Maybe I need to rethink that repower.......a bigger diesel might do the trick . I'm with you, the 2 meters of snow in my front yard is more worrisome to me at this point.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Frogwatch said:


> Your description of "Denialists".


I didn't describe them at all.

You made a leap of logic and took the example that I offered to be a description.
It wasn't. 
That is a connection you made, not I, and one that is unsupportable, based on the evidence. You based your determination not on the evidence but on...
what?

if this is the approach you take to most research, you might want to reevaluate since you have come to the wrong conclusion.
Further, you might want to rethink the conclusions you have reached on other issues as well, since you see how inaccurate your conclusion was in this instance.

I believe you owe me an apology.


----------



## crichard (Nov 7, 2002)

Minnesail If your chartering out of the Apostles there's a pretty amazing set of data on the dates of ice out near Bayfield on the web at fyi.uwex.edu/.../Forest-Howks-Bayfield-Harbor-Ice-Presentation-2012.pdf

It was put together by a high school student from a variety of sources and is very interesting. The kid did a pretty good job. The bottom line is, it would be very unusual indeed to not be sailing on Memorial Day. As I said before, get your warm comfy sleeping bag ready and enjoy...........


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chas H View Post
A "denialist" in the context of the global warming debate is simply a way of denigrating persons with a viewpoint other than your own.
No, it's not.
It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.


Your intent is very clear. You may try to wiggle by saying that you did not actually call "people who do not agree with the AGW theory" dumbasses but you clearly intended it as I suspect everybody will recognize.

I could accomplish something similar by in this way:

Would it be accurate to call BLJones "incompetent"?

It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.

I clearly did not call you either "incompetent" nor a "dumbass" but the intent would be clear while I have no information that would allow me to make such a statement.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

How do you read "intent"?

You can't. Yet, you did.

I am not "wiggling" at all.


I AM pointing out that you couldn't and can't, make the evidence fit your conclusion, and when called on it, you make an inference that is not in evidence.

If I had written: 

"No, it's not.
It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a Mercedes 500SL is called a Mercedes 500SL"

Would you have implied that I had called climate denialists "expensive heavy underperforming but comfortable German roadsters"?

Of course not. You made am inference that is not in evidence, based on your own opinion of me and my politics and my position, and disparaged me along the way.

I await your apology.


What is your position on climate change? Did you use the same rigorous scientific method to reach your conclusions as you did reaching the conclusion that I described climate change deniers as dumbasses?

If so, do you understand why your opinion would be unworthy of respect?


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

Would it be accurate to call BLJones "incompetent"?

It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.


----------



## Frogwatch (Jan 22, 2011)

Statement A:

I am going to end my part in this discussion with BL.

Statement B:

There is no point in a discussion with a dishonest person.

Now, I did not call BL dishonest.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

LOL.
My point is made.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Hey people and fellow sailors - just because there is ice on Lake Superior why do the climate change people, either yeah or nay, have to come out of the woodwork?

Here are some facts:
My dad has sailed Lake Superior, Huron and Michigan since 1939. Although my parents are well into their 90's these days they still enjoy going out with us sometimes. I have sailed and fished Lake Superior for 45 years starting out with my dad when I was young. The vast majority of those years with powerboats and only 7 years with sails. But it's all the same difference.

This is not the most ice Lake Superior has ever seen. And some years it goes out earlier and some later. It depends on how harsh the winter is. We are getting through a harsh winter this year. However, this is not the worst, the coldest or the snowiest winter we have ever had either. In 1979 we rode snowmobiles across Lake Superior from Bayfield to Two Harbors and it was 48 deg below zero.

Most people have not been around long enough to know what's going on. So they make short term observations on things that are many times in error. The ice will go out. It ain't gonna go out early like it did in 2012 when spring came early. But in June we'll be sailing. So be happy and look forward to it. Quit debating something that is totally stupid. It has gotten to where if ANYTHING happens - the big storm of 1913, the sinking of the Fitz in 1975 - you name it - it is caused by climate change these days. Get over it. It's called "weather" and it's been going on for thousands of years. You would think that sailors that have been on the Great Lakes for 50+ years would pipe up and say something. But we don't (until now). We just sit back and laugh over the panic and "sky is falling" because there's ice on the Lakes.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Agreed CruisingCouple. It's weather, not climate. Although at the risk of perpetuating this climate tangent, this winter is on track for being either the coldest or second coldest winter on record for the Canadian Prairies and Northern Ontario (which takes in Lake Superior). This according to Environment Canada. The data goes back 75 years. I haven't dug out the data for the northern US states, but weather doesn't respect political boundaries. It must be similar.

I can't find definitive data on Superior yet, but the last time it measured 100% coverage was 1996. If it's not 100% this year, its damn close. NOAA reports that Michigan did exceed its all-time ice record this year. Again, according to NOAA and Environment Canada, we could be facing a record ice year in the Great Lakes basin (data is still being collected). No matter how it comes out, this winter is one of the coldest and iciest on record.

One weather event says very little about climate. There is a clear trend in the data indicating reduced ice coverage on the Great Lakes. But this year is on track to be one for the cold record books.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Nice thing about it is that the water levels are up on the lake because it didn't lose to evaporation this year and we'll have good runoff from the watershed. That means not grounding the boat trying to get into our shallow slip in Port Wing. The water level is not as high as it has been in the past. But it's up a good 15".


----------



## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

travlineasy said:


> Another site, climatedepot.com revealed that on average the earth's temperature has really not changed in the past 16 years.


Sorry, Gary, but you might want to take much of what's being dispensed on Climate Depot with a grain of salt, it is not widely regarded as a reliable or objective source of climate science information... 

Climate Change Misinformer Of The Year: Marc Morano | Research | Media Matters for America

For all you Great Lakes sailors, looks like one upside of this winter will be at least a modest return to more 'normal' lake levels...

Hope the sailors in Port Huron and Sarnia can make it out into the lake this summer, that current will be ripping beneath the Blue Water Bridge this year. I'll bet... 

Levels of Lake Michigan, Lake Huron may rise 8 to 14 inches


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

Was at Superior a week ago when ice breaker made it's first trip out from there. They went out 6 miles and turned around but were in water, not ice. Do not know how big the puddle was, but only 6 miles out. Also, here in n. Mn. this is the 8th coldest winter on record but read last week that this was the 3rd warmest winter on record world wide. Hard to believe that one, but was on CNN, so must be spot on. Yea,right.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

BobnCamie said:


> Was at Superior a week ago when ice breaker made it's first trip out from there. They went out 6 miles and turned around but were in water, not ice.


Yep, USCG Cutter Alder. Where were you? I was on Wisconsin Point when I watched her break her way out to sea. She sure throws a lot of water with the props grinding up ice behind her. 6,000hp in a 235 foot cutter breaking 3-5 foot ice at 4-5 kts.


----------



## crichard (Nov 7, 2002)

I was just watching the Alden cutting a path out of the Duluth harbor a few minutes ago. Open water is about 2-3 miles out. With a couple days of good west winds the ice will get blown to Canada.


----------



## mad_machine (Dec 16, 2012)

BobnCamie said:


> Was at Superior a week ago when ice breaker made it's first trip out from there. They went out 6 miles and turned around but were in water, not ice. Do not know how big the puddle was, but only 6 miles out. Also, here in n. Mn. this is the 8th coldest winter on record but read last week that this was the 3rd warmest winter on record world wide. Hard to believe that one, but was on CNN, so must be spot on. Yea,right.


Don't confuse weather with climate. While it as cold in the great lakes and east... Alaska was so warm they had to run the Iditarod on gigs instead of sleds


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

I was at Barkers Island working in the boat. Only person there,wonder why. Her the breaker going by, had to stop and watch. You are right, very impressive. Still think that we will go from -10 to 60 above when it happens. Supposed to be almost -20 tonight, just wonder when my theory will happen.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

BobnCamie said:


> I was at Barkers Island working in the boat. Only person there,wonder why.


Not even John was around there? I thought he's always there. Acts like he's working during the day. Then at night I suspect he sleeps in that Pretorien that's for sale in the heated storage building.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

CruisingCouple said:


> Hey people and fellow sailors - just because there is ice on Lake Superior why do the climate change people, either yeah or nay, have to come out of the woodwork?
> 
> Here are some facts:
> My dad has sailed Lake Superior, Huron and Michigan since 1939. Although my parents are well into their 90's these days they still enjoy going out with us sometimes. I have sailed and fished Lake Superior for 45 years starting out with my dad when I was young. The vast majority of those years with powerboats and only 7 years with sails. But it's all the same difference.
> ...


Not to dispute you, but what were your facts? Seemed just like opinions.

On the first page of this thread I posted a study of the ice -
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1990/19900009.pdf?origin=publication_detail

I spent time reading through the report. I'm not a scientist but it seems to be saying that Lake Superior Froze over once around 1979-1980 and possibly one other time around 1920 - in 110 years it has happened once, or perhaps twice. Laugh if you want but it's an event worthy of comment.

There have been several articles recently on the big duck die off in the Great Lakes due to the ice. Coincidentally, I have spotted several large groups of mallard ducks around here. Our lakes are still frozen over here too, including the one behind my own house. I watched a flock of Canadian Geese bounce off it in shock the other day, and then fly away so there may be benefits to this deep freeze .

The contempt exhibited against the common man who merely wants to understand his environment through science has gotten more prevalent and more virulent in recent years.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Sal Paradise said:


> I spent time reading through the report. I'm not a scientist but it seems to be saying that Lake Superior Froze over once around 1979-1980 and possibly one other time around 1920 - in 110 years it has happened once, or perhaps twice.


Ummm... Nope. She was froze over in '94 too. Didn't read your article or anything. Don't have to. Been living with Lake Superior long enough to know that she freezes over, on average, about once every 20 years. If the government says it only froze over twice in 110 years before this, then they're wrong.


----------



## Chas H (Sep 6, 2013)

I'm happy to know that the tide will be coming in on the lakes this spring.
-CH


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Just got off the phone with my dad and out of curiosity asked him when he remembers Superior freezing over. He said 1936, 1963, 1979, 1994, and this year.

The media sensationalism makes it a "once in a lifetime" or "record" event. I don't get wrapped up in the media sensationalism. Yes, you will only see it a few times in your lifetime. What that does is give you experience like my dad has. It is not a record event, it is not unprecedented, it has happened many times before. Based on historical events it will probably not happen again until I am old and grey and can hopefully sail her one last time after she freezes again.

Hopefully this year will be like I remember in the 90's after she froze. It can get hotter than blazes here with a warm wind from the south. Go out on the lake it's nice and cool, fishing is good in the bays where the water is warmer, if the south breeze has decent humidity in it the lake gets a layer of pea soup fog at night that burns off in the morning. On a still night you can hear the horns from the freighters for 30 miles in the fog. It is absolutely beautiful to witness.


----------



## tdw (Oct 2, 2006)

This thread began as a comment on unseasonal ice on the Great lakes not Climate Change as such.

Climate Change discussions are for Off Topic. Any further mention of Climate Change will result in this thread being banished to PRWG or posts removed and if necessary holidays will follow.


----------



## hotdogs (Mar 5, 2008)

tdw said:


> This thread began as a comment on unseasonal ice on the Great lakes not Climate Change as such.
> 
> Climate Change discussions are for Off Topic. Any further mention of Climate Change will result in this thread being banished to PRWG or posts removed and if necessary holidays will follow.


This is closing the barn door after the horse has left. Thanks.


----------



## tdw (Oct 2, 2006)

hotdogs said:


> This is closing the barn door after the horse has left. Thanks.


Mea Culpa on that but unfortunately no one reported when the thread went off the rails and I've been on boat and not always with internet connection. All I could do was react when I did see the thread.

To be honest, what I'd like to see is more reporting of posts that cause thread derailments. Doesn't have to result in cries of tittle tattling but it does bring matters to the attention of the mods.

To my mind this was an interesting thread not because of climate change issues but more what could be nothing more than an unseasonal cold spell. Surely Great Lakes sailors would want to discuss, indeed even bemoan a late start to their sailing season.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

*hangs head, scuffs ground with toe of shoe.*

Sorry.


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

Yea, I know. As I said, 3rd warmest on record world wide. Just saying hard to believe it with this weather here. -27 again here this morning. Was watching Fairbanks weather all winter, only about a 10 day stretch it was colder there than here. Just the way it goes. That prompted my original statement about magnetic shift. Just a head scratcher


----------



## mad_machine (Dec 16, 2012)

all my magazines are boxed up at the moment (just moved last week) but Small Craft Advisor or Good Old Boat had an article of some people who hiked out to one of the lighthouses on Lake Michigan.. a lighthouse that is usually miles out into the lake on an island


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

CruisingCouple said:


> Ummm... Nope. She was froze over in '94 too. Didn't read your article or anything. Don't have to. Been living with Lake Superior long enough to know that she freezes over, on average, about once every 20 years. If the government says it only froze over twice in 110 years before this, then they're wrong.


They probably mean 95%+ I'm sure it does get ice on it, but its 32,000 square miles - can you see the whole lake from your house?

I'll be in Buffalo next weekend. I'll take a look and let you know if Lake Erie is 100% froze over. :laugher


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Sal Paradise said:


> They probably mean 95%+ I'm sure it does get ice on it, but its 32,000 square miles - can you see the whole lake from your house?


Well, I don't like to argue with folks and this is why I get tired of these internet forums pretty fast.

Even this year she was not froze along the North Shore on some days. If the wind is still and it's cold then it sheets over. The wind picks up and the ice goes out. It is a constantly changing thing. When the media was reporting "froze over" she was open up by Split Rock Lighthouse.

Folks were able to walk out to the mainland sea caves this year from Meyer's Beach. There's caves on Sand Island and the north shore of Devil's Island too. But there's no way the ice was safe enough to go out there this year. But there's been years past when it could be done. In 2009 folks were walking along the mainland to the caves.

There has been years when the ice was a lot better than this year. In 1977 Lyle Rhine tried to a move a house across the ice to Madeline where they got the ice road in the winter. He made it 3/4 of the way across and the ice broke and she went through and sank. Then in the spring the USCG told them they had to get it out of there so Ed Erickson went out there with his scow and a bunch of divers to retrieve it. All they got was a bunch of timber and water logged truck back. They actually got the house to the surface, though, before the bottom fell out of it. We laughed - it was the funniest thing we ever seen.

Anyway, I'm sorry folks - this year is not "unprecedented". We've seen 'em better and we've seen 'em worse. It only seems to be "unprecedented" on the internet forums, and I'm losing patience, and interest, in those.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

"Well, I don't like to argue with folks and this is why I get tired of these internet forums pretty fast."

Personal anecdotes don't usually win the day on the internet forums.

You gotta learn to take the good and leave the bad. Peace.


----------



## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

CruisingCouple said:


> Anyway, I'm sorry folks - this year is not "unprecedented". We've seen 'em better and we've seen 'em worse. It only seems to be "unprecedented" on the internet forums, and I'm losing patience, and interest, in those.


Guess I must have missed it, but I haven't seen anyone in the course of this thread arguing that this winter's freeze on the lakes is "unprecedented"... 



BobnCamie said:


> Also, here in n. Mn. this is the 8th coldest winter on record but read last week that this was the 3rd warmest winter on record world wide. Hard to believe that one, but was on CNN, so must be spot on. Yea,right.


Why would you find that hard to believe? MN and the Greal Lakes region is a fairly small sample of this winter's weather worldwide, after all... 

World begins 2014 with unusual number of extreme weather events | Environment | theguardian.com

So, while such fluctuations and extremes in weather as the Northern hemisphere may not be without precedent, they certainly have been atypical. The Olympic Games in Sochi were the warmest so far...










And, the conditions in this winter's Iditarod in Alaska were, to say the least, 'atypical'...










It's been a strange one in my little corner of the world here in NJ, as well... As harsh as this winter has been, Barnegat Bay and my lagoon did not freeze over as solidly, or for as long a duration, as it has in recent years... For all the cold weather we've had, I don't think I had to run my bubbler as much as I did last winter, or 3 years before... Weird...


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

All weather, when it is outside people's "comfort zone" is an anomaly. I'm happy to see what we call a "good old fashioned winter" return to the Great Lakes Basin. The water levels will be up, the water will be cold, when it warms ups in the shallows and bays the fishing will be good. Enjoy it and take it in stride, realizing that it is an ever changing thing. Nothing ever remains constant.

In 1978 when we graduated from high school, my cousin moved to North Pole, Alaska. It was his dream all the way through high school because he loves snowmobiling and hunting. In '79 we had a "good old fashioned winter" here with 12-14 feet of snow on the ground, 40-50 below zero, and we could ride snowmobiles across to Two Harbors. In Fairbanks and North Pole they didn't have enough snow that winter to even bother pulling their snowmobiles out of the shed and people were wearing light jackets in Fairbanks in January. Instead of snow they had a 1/2" of rain there. My cousin flew home so he could go snowmobiling 

Me thinks people's memories are way too short and folks are way too willing to panic these days at the slightest change from their "comfort zone". And I think the internet is primarily responsible for propagating all the "gloom and doom". And folks suck it right up. Everybody got spoiled in 2012 when spring came in March, Superior had more time to warm up that year, and all the scientists were reporting that the average temp of Lake Superior is going to rise by 5 deg F by 2015, or whatever it was. Seems mother nature threw 'em a curve ball and they struck out.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Yeah, it's strange but brutally cold winters have been missed by conservatives and they look at snow and ice as an icon of days of yore. There is irony inside of irony. You realize that by calling it " an old fashioned winter" you basically endorse the idea of global warming?

To the rest of us, cold weather just sucks.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

OK, hold on here CC. While this winter is not beyond the pale, it is certainly one for the record books. It IS on track for being either the coldest, or second coldest on record for the Canadian Prairies and Northern Ontario. Lake Michigan DID break its all-time ice coverage record. And we are in the top three for over-all Great Lakes ice coverage this year. So yes ... it's not off the scale, but this winter certainly is unusual compared to actual historic data. People are right to think of this as an usually tough winter.

Oh, and yes, Lake Superior and all the Great Lakes are experiencing a long-term warming -- at least as long as actual data shows. That's measured in water temperatures and ice coverage:

_"Data shows a long-term warming trend throughout the Great Lakes, which may be related to manmade climate change. According to George Leskevich, a physical research scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich., there is also a long-term downward trend in Great Lakes wintertime ice cover, although there is considerable year-to-year variability."_

Perhaps this will reverse itself now. One weather event says little about climate. Time will tell.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

I'm pretty sure that there has been times in the past, long before modern records, when this place has experienced worse extremes. Man hasn't been around long enough to know about it. We see evidence of the ice sheets that once extended to the southern US plains. So saying this year is a "record" is a misnomer. It can only be a "record" in the relatively short experience of mankind.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

CruisingCouple said:


> I'm pretty sure that there has been times in the past, long before modern records, when this place has experienced worse extremes. Man hasn't been around long enough to know about it. We see evidence of the ice sheets that once extended to the southern US plains. So saying this year is a "record" is a misnomer. It can only be a "record" in the relatively short experience of mankind.


Uhm, yes ... the Great Lake have been a lot colder, and a lot hotter. It's been under water, and a desert. Heck, if you want to go back far enough it was part of a molten basin, and the void of space.

As I said, compared to actual weather data, which according to Environment Canada goes back 75 years, this winter IS a significant event. One of the coldest on record. Not unprecedented, but certainly nothing to dismiss.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Those "void of space" days, now that was cold. None of this "atmosphere" crap to keep you warm. I walked up hill both ways. LOL


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

The longer the winter, the more fun the summer and less demanding we are of the sun. Gotta love the north country. What else we gonna do,move to the tropics?


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

BobnCamie said:


> The longer the winter, the more fun the summer and less demanding we are of the sun. Gotta love the north country. What else we gonna do,move to the tropics?


Bob, the tropics aren't all they're cracked up to be. Too many people down there crawling over each other like rats in a cage. Here, you can sail up to the Slate Islands and get a nice anchorage where it's cool at night and you can actually sleep, the fishing is good, and you won't see anybody else for days at a time.

Meanwhile, down in the tropics you're bleeding sweat 24 hrs a day. And there's so many boats in an anchorage you don't even need a dinghy to get to shore. You can walk to shore by hopping from one boat to another. Oh, and don't forget to tell the dingbat that dropped hook right next to you about what you think about him running that Honda EU2000 flat out on the stern deck so he can run his A/C unit.

Be happy with what we got here. Folks down south got it a lot worse. And, while few of them could survive up here anyway so there's little chance they will invade, it's best to let the lower latitude people think they got it made.


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

I like your attitude! And I believe whole-heartedly with your sentiments. Made a major mistake a few years ago and introduced my wife to snorkeling and the tropics. My life has been more difficult since then. Will show her your reply. Just wish it was warmer here. After living in Panama for a year, learned to love the tropics, but hate the jungles. They are hand in hand,too. Winter has lost its appeal for me.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Snorkeling is fun, no doubt. But for us it can never match a sunrise in the Slate Islands on a cool morning with fog in the cove, loons calling, and cooking breakfast over a campfire on the shore.

The lower latitudes can be a nice break for 2-3 weeks in the middle of winter. But much more than that and my wife starts wondering when we're going home because she's had enough of "paradise". We took off two weeks this year and went sailing in the Keys and my wife starts getting irritated after the first week because it's too crowded down there and it's all a big developed tourist trap. And they got regulations about where you can even even drop an anchor for fear of disturbing a fish.

It's good to spend some time there. It makes you appreciate what you have out your back door once you get back home.


----------



## miatapaul (Dec 15, 2006)

Hey the way I figure it the ice is just floating there to cool off the beer, enjoy it!


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)




----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

To answer my own question - What is steering the jet stream? This is from AccuWeather today -

"According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston, the reason behind the record-breaking winter is due to a blocking high pressure ridge over Alaska, the Yukon and the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. *"That system deflected the jet stream across the North Pole, down through Canada and into the United States," *he said, citing unseasonably low temperatures as a result of this burst of arctic air. The cool air from the North meets with the jet stream and moisture in the South to create storm systems, and this is the main reason behind this year's heavy snowfall totals, Boston said.

Toledo, Ohio, experienced their snowiest winter ever, with a record breaking snowfall of 84.8 inches. Weather data for the city has been collected since the late 1800s, according to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards.

I did find this image to describe the jet stream -


----------



## boatpoker (Jul 21, 2008)

Sal Paradise said:


> To answer my own question - What is steering the jet stream?


I don't care .... just make it stop.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Nice image Sal. I like to go to the actual prediction charts like this one:

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/526_100.gif

The 500 hPa panel easily shows the significant air flows, and the jets streams (of which there are many). From this I can see my area (Northern Ontario) will start to get slightly warmer over the coming week, although not really warm (and not where is should be).

Guess my boat will remain inaccessible for a while yet.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

The Soo Locks opened yesterday on schedule and the first freighter locked thru last night. Poe is open but they're still welding on gates on MacArthur.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

Minnesail said:


> That has not happened, although the summer of 2012 had record low arctic ice and the summer of 2013 had the sixth lowest. Now in the winter of 2014 we are seeing the record for the lowest winter arctic ice.
> Arctic Sea Ice Sits at Record Low for Mid-February


I don't know that that's all that alarming unless you want to be alarmed over it. Being somewhat of a history buff, and especially where my sailing ancestors are concerned, it is unfortunate that the early Norse records that were moved from Trondheim to Copenhagen in 1664 were lost in a fire in 1728.

But records from eastern Asia and Siberia show that early Norse sailors sailed the Northwest Passage around 800-1,000AD. The shores along the Northern Greenland coast show that the Arctic Ocean was ice-free for at least 1,000 years before that time. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.


----------



## hotdogs (Mar 5, 2008)

CruisingCouple said:


> Well, when ever these bold predictions are made and it never comes to pass I believe the standard response now goes something like, "Oh, it's true. It is really gonna happen. This is just a 'hiatus'. Trust us."
> 
> One of the other new common responses that they thought up is trying to make a distinction between "weather" and "climate" now. You see, the weather can't be predicted accurately even one week in advance. But climate can be predicted for the next 200 years. Trust us.


Take it to the appropriate venue. This ain't it.

Earlier in the thread, from the moderator:

Climate Change discussions are for Off Topic. Any further mention of Climate Change will result in this thread being banished to PRWG or posts removed and if necessary holidays will follow.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I hear the ice breakers are finally going to try and get Thunder Bay open. The Canadian breaker, the CCGS Samuel Risley, usually does the spring breakup for Thunder Bay, but I see it is working lower down on the seaway. I hear the USCGS Aldur is heading up here, and two smaller USCGS vessels, the Morrow Bay and the Kaitmay Bay are already hard at it. Hopefully we'll start to see some actual water and shipping traffic soon .


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

The charter company said they plan on having all their boats in the water and ready to go by Memorial Day weekend.

I'm trying to get one with a diesel heater, because even if the air temp is warm, the water temp will be chilly! That'll be new for me, I've never used a heater on a boat before.


----------



## abrahamx (Apr 3, 2006)

CruisingCouple said:


> Just got off the phone with my dad and out of curiosity asked him when he remembers Superior freezing over. He said 1936, 1963, 1979, 1994, and this year.
> 
> The media sensationalism makes it a "once in a lifetime" or "record" event. I don't get wrapped up in the media sensationalism. Yes, you will only see it a few times in your lifetime. What that does is give you experience like my dad has. It is not a record event, it is not unprecedented, it has happened many times before. Based on historical events it will probably not happen again until I am old and grey and can hopefully sail her one last time after she freezes again.
> 
> Hopefully this year will be like I remember in the 90's after she froze. It can get hotter than blazes here with a warm wind from the south. Go out on the lake it's nice and cool, fishing is good in the bays where the water is warmer, if the south breeze has decent humidity in it the lake gets a layer of pea soup fog at night that burns off in the morning. On a still night you can hear the horns from the freighters for 30 miles in the fog. It is absolutely beautiful to witness.


You crack me up. Its not media hype its study groups with high tech devices. Unless your dad has his own satellite or flys over the whole lake every few days and documents this consistently. I would just have to believe the study over someones dad's opinion. I mean seriously?  Last I saw, it had not even iced over 100% this year.


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

I was in Superior yesterday and saw two boats heading to two harbors, I was told this anyway, to get two barges out and send them south. Ice breakers were at work recently in harbor and have a few channel open. At least it is a start.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

hotdogs said:


> Take it to the appropriate venue. This ain't it.
> 
> Earlier in the thread, from the moderator:
> 
> Climate Change discussions are for Off Topic. Any further mention of Climate Change will result in this thread being banished to PRWG or posts removed and if necessary holidays will follow.


Who said anything about climate change? Somebody wanted to know why the ice didn't melt like it was supposed to. Those are the standard canned answers provided these days, for pete's sake.

It's kind of like if you're going to go sailing and wondering if it's going to be nice, or if it's going to rain. You are given "percent chances" that it might rain. This is called CYA weather forecasting. If the weather person says definitively "it is going to rain" and it doesn't, then they have egg on face. If they give percent chances, then they can resort to the canned responses of why it didn't rain, and proudly proclaim successful weather forecasting if it does.

Pretty soon you become very suspicious that the weather forecaster doesn't really know much more than you do about whether or not it's going to rain. They just got a job on TV and get paid for it, and you don't.

Same thing with the ice melting. 75% chance she'd all melt. 2012 was looking really good and everything on track. People out sailing all over the place in April. Well, now we must've hit the 25% outside chance that it won't melt and we got people pi$$in and moanin over it. So now we have to resort to the canned response of why we still got ice. People have a right to know these things because this inaccurate ice melting forecasting is starting to cut into people's sailing season.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

CruisingCouple said:


> Same thing with the ice melting. 75% chance she'd all melt. 2012 was looking really good and everything on track. People out sailing all over the place in April. Well, now we must've hit the 25% outside chance that it won't melt and we got people pi$$in and moanin over it. So now we have to resort to the canned response of why we still got ice. People have a right to know these things because this inaccurate ice melting forecasting is starting to cut into people's sailing season.


You lost me CC . The topic is ice this year on Lake Superior. I don't know what you're talking about, but there is a lot of ice this year. Not unprecedented. Not even a record, but more than the long-term average (as compared to actual, measured data that goes back close to 100 years). What that has to do with how local weather is predicted and communicated eludes me.


----------



## hotdogs (Mar 5, 2008)

CruisingCouple said:


> Who said anything about climate change? Somebody wanted to know why the ice didn't melt like it was supposed to. Those are the standard canned answers provided these days, for pete's sake.
> 
> It's kind of like if you're going to go sailing and wondering if it's going to be nice, or if it's going to rain. You are given "percent chances" that it might rain. This is called CYA weather forecasting. If the weather person says definitively "it is going to rain" and it doesn't, then they have egg on face. If they give percent chances, then they can resort to the canned responses of why it didn't rain, and proudly proclaim successful weather forecasting if it does.
> 
> ...


I don't know what any of that has to do about the topic of this thread, but I gleaned from it that you are mad. Maybe now is an appropriate time to step away from the computer, go outdoors and enjoy the weather.

Happy trails.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

It must be hard to troll with all that ice.


----------



## BobnCamie (Nov 10, 2013)

Well,just checking my ais receiver from home(250 mi. From Superior,Wi) and see the c.g. vesselAlder is headed north and looks like it is headed to Silver Bay perhaps and another cargo vessel, theMesabi Miner is also headed n.e. along shore 20 nm north of Silver Bay making 5.7 kts. Must be open water? At least it is starting.


----------



## CruisingCouple (Jan 14, 2014)

hotdogs said:


> I don't know what any of that has to do about the topic of this thread, but I gleaned from it that you are mad.


Ah yes. Mad. I must be. I mean, after all I live in the north where ice on the lakes is completely normal well into late spring. Flashback to last year in case your memory is short:
NWS reports snowfall totals in excess of 16? in NW Wisconsin | FOX6Now.com

I love it. We got so many "records" now that nobody can even keep track of how fast they get broke. LOL!

We'll be sailing in May just like we were last year. Maybe see some of you guys out there in July sometime after the "Ice on Lake Superior in June" thread finally expires. In the mean time, carry on :hammer


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Just flew back to Thunder Bay from Toronto. Had a good view of the Big Lake, crossing from White Fish Bay to Thunder Bay. It is frozen! In the 15 years of me living, and flying over the Lake, I've never seen it anywhere near as ice covered. There is almost no open water, and Thunder Bay is solid packed. 

I know CC -- 15 years is a small sample size. I know... Take it for what it is; an actual observation from a first-hand source: Me.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Not quite on topic, but apropos none the less:

Seven Day Forecast - Rick Mercer Report - CBC Player


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Just confirmed with the charter company, I'm getting an Islander 36 for Memorial Day weekend. 

I'm hoping to take the dinghy to some of the sea caves. Maybe there'll be some ice formations left.


----------



## SailPNW (Oct 2, 2013)

April 1 Blizzard on the horizon! It isn't over yet!


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

SailPNW said:


> April 1 Blizzard on the horizon! It isn't over yet!


I know, right?!? In North Dakota today hundreds of miles of interstates were closed because of whiteout conditions, and the storm is headed across northern Minnesota to Lake Superior.

Meanwhile in southwestern Minnesota a tornado touched down. Fun times.

Spring!


----------



## captbillc (Jul 31, 2008)

NE wind howling down lake superior today. yesterday the USCG vessel morrow bay was towed to duluth by 2 other cg vessels. the rudder bolts were sheared off by the pack ice in thunder bay, canada. the lake carrier presque isle came back to duluth with hull damage from the ice which is 7 ft thick in places. vessels are staying in port till conditions improve. i wont be launching my sailboat till the end of june.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Crews work to clear Great Lakes shipping pathways - TwinCities.com

INDIANAPOLIS-U.S. and Canadian Coast Guard crews kept up their battle Monday to clear pathways for vessels hauling vital raw materials on the ice-clogged Great Lakes, where a shipping logjam forced a weeklong shutdown of the nation's largest steel factory.








Traffic remained largely at a crawl after a winter that produced some of the heaviest ice on record across the five inland seas, where more than half the surface area remained solid this week. Icebreaking ships slogging across Lake Superior were still encountering ice layers 2 feet to 3 feet thick. In some areas, wind and wave action created walls of ice up to 14 feet high.

The shipping season officially began two weeks ago with the opening of navigational locks on the St. Marys River connecting Lakes Superior and Huron, a bottleneck for vessels hauling iron ore and coal to manufacturers and electric power plants. But just one convoy of vessels-including two icebreakers and the two ships hauling iron ore-had traversed Superior with loads of freight.

About three-quarters of Lake Superior, the largest and deepest of the Great Lakes, remained ice-covered. Gill estimated it would be about two weeks before the surface is clear enough for freighters to make the crossing without an icebreaker escort.

Even then, the icebreakers probably will be on duty well into May and possibly as late as Memorial Day.


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Just heard this on mainstream news. It's causing price spikes in fuel costs. Darned global warming.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Bluewater bridge over the st clair river yesterday:


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

smurphny said:


> Just heard this on mainstream news. It's causing price spikes in fuel costs. Darned global warming.


Meanwhile, elsewhere:
Carteret Islands - Telegraph


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Sorry I started this. Let's get back to ICE Looking at the NOAA ice chart, it does look like the ice is atypically widespread for this time of the year. The weather here in Northern NY seems to have returned to a normal temperature range. http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PIEA88.gif


----------



## Faster (Sep 13, 2005)

Folks.. removed the political hijack and reaction posts. Please keep this on the original topic.


----------



## SteveKras (Mar 23, 2014)

Sal Paradise said:


> The shipping season officially began two weeks ago with the opening of navigational locks on the St. Marys River connecting Lakes Superior and Huron, a bottleneck for vessels hauling iron ore and coal to manufacturers and electric power plants. But just one convoy of vessels-including two icebreakers and the two ships hauling iron ore-had traversed Superior with loads of freight.


I know you guys are mainly discussing Lake Superior, but I just heard on the radio this morning that the first freighter with iron ore made it to US Steel at the bottom of Lake Michigan. Our harbors that aren't fed by rivers still have "icebergs" in them. The dingy frostbite fleet has to dodge the ice during their races.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Superior remains heavily iced over. The port of Thunder Bay is weeks behind in its shipping. Breakers are trying to keep a thin ribbon of a route open to our elevators, but it's going to be a long time before the port is where it normally should be.


----------



## travlin-easy (Dec 24, 2010)

Wow, that's a lot of ice to melt yet. In Chesapeake Bay's upper reaches, the water temperature is still only 47 degrees - damned cold. If you fell overboard, at best you would last an hour before hypothermia set in. This has definitely been the longest, coldest, snowiest winter I can recall in my entire life.

C'mon on summer,

Gary


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

I'm so tired of this ****.
Here - just look at this - proof of global warming hoax! Global Warming Hoax

And then everyone take a drink.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

_groan... _

Talk about blind zealotry. The Heartland Institute is a well know sham think tank that receives its funding from numerous right wind(nut) groups and individuals, most notably the Koke brothers. As for your Gulf weather report, I assume this means that when we break temperature high records this summer somewhere (as I'm sure we will) you will then proclaim Man-made global warming does exist.

If you're going to make a these ridiculous claims, at least try and put some intelectual effort into it.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

seafrontiersman said:


> Typical liberal arrogance, superior attitude, and womanish venom. So data is invalid unless approved by you and Al Gore? Who made you judge? What criteria do you use other than what Salon tells you to think?
> 
> BTW we both know you never heard of the Koch brothers until Dingy Harry mentioned him...


I will simply report your posts now.


----------



## seafrontiersman (Mar 2, 2009)

MikeOReilly said:


> I will simply report your posts now.


For what? Having the temerity to disagree with an oh-so- righteous liberal? Are you REALLY that much better than me?


----------



## killarney_sailor (May 4, 2006)

seafrontiersman said:


> I am, at this moment, proceeding thru the Head of Passes of the Mississippi River and the thermometer reads 46 F, it bottomed out at 41F.
> 
> At the same latitude as Daytona, Fl.
> In April.
> ...


This sounds very much like the parable of the blind men experiencing an elephant. So you (and I) get a really severe winter and it means global warming isn't happening. What response would you get from people of the west coast and in Sochi (where they had the Winter Olympics) that had extremely mild winters. Last time I looked they were in the northern hemisphere.

Think you need to broaden your focus and look globally. Also time to brush up on the difference between weather and climate.


----------



## travlin-easy (Dec 24, 2010)

Overall data reveals the globe's average temperature has not increased in more than 16 years. And, does anyone remember the global cooling hype of the 1970s. Manmade global warming, according the the scientific community, does not exist. Lots of great, unbiased information at http://www.climatedepot.com/tag/global-warming/
Gary


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

killarney_sailor said:


> This sounds very much like the parable of the blind men experiencing an elephant. So you (and I) get a really severe winter and it means global warming isn't happening. What response would you get from people of the west coast and in Sochi (where they had the Winter Olympics) that had extremely mild winters. Last time I looked they were in the northern hemisphere.
> 
> Think you need to broaden your focus and look globally. Also time to brush up on the difference between weather and climate.


Thanks KS, although rational discussion is clearly not this person's strength. I've never done this before, but _seafrontiersman_ is now on my personal Ignore list. He's clearly not worth even a minimal effort.

I love thoughtful discussion, but I've learned not to engage with zealots. There's just no point.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

travlineasy said:


> Overall data reveals the globe's average temperature has not increased in more than 16 years. And, does anyone remember the global cooling hype of the 1970s. Manmade global warming, according the the scientific community, does not exist. Lots of great, unbiased information at global warming | Climate Depot
> Gary


I'd be happy to carry on the discussion with you Gary. I know you to be a respectful, thoughtful person. However, this is not the place. I don't want to further feed seafrontiersman's trolling.


----------



## Cruisingdad (Jul 21, 2006)

Fellas, this is not the place for this discussion. Take it to off topic or I send this whole thread there.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

In an effort to get this back on track, and atone for my contributing to the thread drift, I post this link that charts water levels on the Great Lakes. It's actual data that goes back to 1918 (although the quality of the data degrades as you go further back). It also makes water level predictions for the coming six months.

GLWLD - Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard

Looks like all the Lakes are predicted to be near or above their long-term averages for the coming season. I assume partly due to the added snow precipitation we've had in the basin this year.

It's a fascinating tool that lets you look at the history of the Lake levels over the past century.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

<resisting the urge to say...oh never mind>

Anyway, yes, this water level rise is great news. If they can ever break the ships through the ice this extra foot or so of water will really help their carrying capacity.

Several of the Apostle Islands have docks maintained by the park service, but lately they haven't been deep enough to safely use them in a keel boat. The Islander 36 I'm getting over Memorial Day has a draft of 6', I'm guessing the charter company will still tell me to stay away from those docks.


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Will be interesting to watch the "ice out" dates for all the lakes this year. Thus far, we've had a very tame melt, without the flooding we sometimes get from ice dams. If the weather pattern remains cool, there could be ice on the NY, VT, and NH lakes for a long time.


----------



## killarney_sailor (May 4, 2006)

I think a secondary reason for higher lake levels is that ice cover prevents evaporation over the winter. In any case, it is good news.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

killarney_sailor said:


> I think a secondary reason for higher lake levels is that ice cover prevents evaporation over the winter. In any case, it is good news.


Yes. Good point. This may even be the more significant impact given that winter evaporation is the major cause of the lakes being lower.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Sam Champion was on the weather channel last night saying that the frozen Great Lakes were actually cooling the north east now. The north west wind has been cold. The Hudson is ,of course, ice free


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Sal Paradise said:


> Sam Champion was on the weather channel last night saying that the frozen Great Lakes were actually cooling the north east now. The north west wind has been cold.


So you're saying your lousy weather is our fault? Jeez!


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

No, I blame the Canadians!


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

I cannot speak for all of us, but personally, I got no issue with the blame. Conveniently, we have located a Canadian on American soil to deal with this issue. Feel free to vent your wrath on Justin Bieber.


----------



## tdw (Oct 2, 2006)

Some people simply will not listen. SFM is taking a short break. 

I really believe that the premise of this thread was valid and of special interest to any of the PNW and Great Lakes SailNetters. Ergo I'd really like it to survive in Sailing Related.

SFM refused to listen, anyone else who cannot understand a very simple ruling may well get the same treatment. Indeed it seems to me that people like SFM deliberately set out to derail any thread that doesn't agree with their viewpoint, presumably in the hope that said thread will be moved to PRWG, Closed or even removed hollus bollus. 

btw ... some posts that were simply replies to SFM's deleted posts have also been deleted as they made no sense without the original. 

Everyone should remember that there is already a Climate Change thread in PRWG. It is open slather over there.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

bljones said:


> Feel free to vent your wrath on Justin Bieber.


Do you know how he can legally stay in the US? An O visa.

They give O visas to those "who possess extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics."

So of all those I'm guess it must be athletics that he's here for....

(Is this sailing related? Did I just doom this thread to the off-topic area?)


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Sal Paradise said:


> Sam Champion was on the weather channel last night saying that the frozen Great Lakes were actually cooling the north east now. The north west wind has been cold. The Hudson is ,of course, ice free


The effects of snow cover are tremendous. Year to year it's obvious in the amount of time it takes for the air to warm up relative to the amount of radiation from the sun that gets absorbed by the ground. Wind blowing over snow from the predominant wind direction spreads the cold air. The upper level low pressure systems, JUST in the last couple of weeks, seem to be moving north which will allow some more seasonal weather patterns to take over. Those lows spin air right down from the Arctic, over the lakes and are what has caused the harsh winter and late spring. Still 2' of snow cover here in the Adirondacks.

"The Hudson" is more than what you see passing through NYC. It starts at Lake Tear of the Clouds in the Adirondacks. I can assure you it does not remain ice free! One of the local entertainments here is to go watch ice-out when house-sized chunks if river ice float down the river. There are typically ice banks into April.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I CAN SEE WATER! 

For the first time since December I can actually see hints of water out beyond the endless field of ice here on Thunder Bay (the bay, not the city). Maybe the rumours are true, and this mythical thing called Spring does exist after all .


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

...and patches of ground have proved that Earth still exists under the snow here in the Adks


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Good for you man. Its supposed to be 80 here on Monday. We have just tiny patches of snow here and there.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

OK?


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

and less hair to cover, as well.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

A better scientific proof I've never seen .



Sal Paradise said:


> OK?


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Oh my god. Global warming causes hair loss.


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Minnesail said:


> Oh my god. Global warming causes hair loss.


apparently. Compare 70s penthouse centerfolds to today- you don't see the full fidel, bikini bandito look any more.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Well bugger.

I had an Islander 36 reserved for Memorial Day weekend, but I just got an email from the charter company.

They said the harbor is still completely iced in and the marina has delayed the official opening by three weeks. They're asking if I can re-schedule for June sometime.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I flew over Lake Superior just a couple days ago. Still lots of ice, especially on the south side (ironically enough). The harbours and bays are all really packed in. They are convoying the freighters to Thunder Bay, Duluth and Superior using icebreaker leads. It's never been this bad in recorded history (which only goes back ~100 years).

At this rate I won't be surprised to see ice on the Lake into Spring. I still haven't even got to my boat b/c of the cold and snow.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Ick. I want to go sailing.

If I'm remembering correctly, I heard on the radio that the wind has been pushing the ice south. That's why the south is more iced in than the north.

I hope it clears up soon so you can get your boat ready and get on with your adventure!


----------



## Alibaba (Feb 6, 2010)

Well its not June yet.. This is a result of all the artic ice melting and the sun hitting the blue water insteasd of the White Ice. 
Increasing more energy into the atmosphere, thus more rapid movement of the jet stream which caused it to snow in Atlanta in febuary.
The earth rotates on its axis which adds extended darkness in the winter months and more ice to form along with increased wind chill factors from more energy driving the upper currents.

This is 8th grade science. Earth rotates on its axis. No sun= more ice, When the sun shine in the winter months, it reflects off the Blue Oceam. driving more energy into the atmosphere driving colder temp further south. 
in the winter of 2012. The increased artic energy forced snow all the way to the Sahara desert.

I`ll post a scientific study of the natural Changing weather pattern in the GPR section.


----------



## Squidd (Sep 26, 2011)

In 8th grade I was more interested in girls than science.....


Pretty much the same way today...


----------



## Alibaba (Feb 6, 2010)

Squidd said:


> In 8th grade I was more interested in girls than science.....
> 
> Pretty much the same way today...


When I was in 8th grade Gilligan`s Island was very popular. My friend called me the Professor. I didn't discover girls until is was a senior and became more interested in football and sex.
When I turned 50 I returned to the professor stuff.
My TV is locked onto the science channel, PBS, and all that kind of stuff. I found the weather channel very good for Sailing topics, nature topics and understanding weather on a more advanced level.
I found Shakeltowns adventure on the Weather channel. The best Sailing adventure ever. A very interesting explanation of this 600 mile trip on a modified 22`lifeboat from the south pole to elephant island in 1918. 
I posted the National Geographic version in the off-topic section at Sailnet.
What is colder Sailing? The southern ocean or Lake Superior.??


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Lots of ice out there still. White as far as you can see looking over the lake from Marquette. From the surface the ice looks thin and about ready to break up. Then you find a spot where you can see the edge of the ice and you realize it's still 1-2ft thick, yikes! It has been fun watching the ice breakers escorting the freighters around here though.

I'm only 29 and I remember seeing ice on Superior in June. It was a warm "summer" day and people were at the beach pulling chunks of ice out to put in their coolers to keep the drinks cold. I think that was in mid 90's, 94 maybe?


----------



## Alibaba (Feb 6, 2010)

Just curious.. What the highest temp of lake Superior in the summer months,??
I hears its very uncompfortabe to swim.
Down here in Erie, in July, August & Sept its been about 75-77 in the open lake and very warm in Erie bays and up to 80 degress warm at times.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Alibaba said:


> Just curious.. What the highest temp of lake Superior in the summer months,??
> I hears its very uncompfortabe to swim.
> Down here in Erie, in July, August & Sept its been about 75-77 in the open lake and very warm in Erie bays and up to 80 degress warm at times.


Last year, most of the summer my depthsounder (about 1ft below the surface) was reading around 58 degrees F. This was around the harbor and Marquette bay. It got up to the low 60's toward the end of the summer. I think out in the open lake the temperature is lower. Near shore, on calm hot days, the surface temp gets up to the 70's. It can feel okay when you're floating on the surface, but let your feet dangle down and they'll go numb in a hurry lol.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Alibaba said:


> Just curious.. What the highest temp of lake Superior in the summer months,??
> I hears its very uncompfortabe to swim.


I would say mid 50ºs in open water, but protected bays can get quite a bit warmer. Well, "warmer" might not be the best word. "Less cold" might be a better way to say it.

If the weather is nice we'll often swim around the boat while anchored, but it's really more of a test of machismo than it is a pleasant swim.

Here in Minneapolis the lakes are officially ice-free and the city has started to put in the docks and buoys, but if you look in the shadowy places there's still ice lingering around.

I took this photo of Minnehaha Falls yesterday and you can see the big chunks of ice in the protected areas on either side of the falls.


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Water temperatures off shore (10-15 nm) will average about 5-6 Celsius (~40F), unless it's been unusually warm and calm. Near-shore in the summer it's not unusually to see surface water temps in the 12 C to 16 C range (53F to 60F). In very protected waters you can see temps in the low 20C, but this is rare, and depends on having warm weather and very little wind. As soon as the water starts churning it gets cold again.

BTW, this is only surface water. Going down even 10 feet and you'll get out of the warmed zones.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Sounds about right. Nice to see some fellow sailors of the Big Lake here!


----------



## Alibaba (Feb 6, 2010)

Thanks for the info and the warning..
I`m going to venture south not north.

The coldest moment in my life.. I was in a 19`Rhodes open boat. Lake Erie, July 4th weekend 1987. Friday night I sail out about about 15 miles in light winds. About midnight, the South west winds picked up to about 20-25 knots with a 4` foot chop. the wind was blowing the the tops of the chop on us like loose hose. The 5hp motor was usless as the waves and chop built to 5`-6` it took about 3 hours to tack back into Erie Pa. My underwear and socks were soaked. My 2 crew mates were shivering and horse from screaming at me. I never saw them since.
They were telling everyone what an A-hole I was for taking them out, Of course they said it was 50mph winds and 20` wave pounding the boat.


----------



## Squidd (Sep 26, 2011)

Still looking mighty icy round the Islands

MODIS Imagery: t1.14123.1643.LakeSuperior.143.250m.jpg


----------



## Chas H (Sep 6, 2013)

smurphny said:


> Will be interesting to watch the "ice out" dates for all the lakes this year. Thus far, we've had a very tame melt, without the flooding we sometimes get from ice dams. If the weather pattern remains cool, there could be ice on the NY, VT, and NH lakes for a long time.


Any bets on how long this thread will last and who will report the last ice cube in Lake Superior? 

Watch out for growlers when you set sail early this season.
-CH


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Squidd said:


> Still looking mighty icy round the Islands
> 
> MODIS Imagery: t1.14123.1643.LakeSuperior.143.250m.jpg


Oh the entire area under the cloud bank is ice, I promise


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Memopad said:


> Oh the entire area under the cloud bank is ice, I promise


Right? For frog's sake, I want to go sailing soon! I hope that shift melts.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

The charter company called yesterday (finally). She said the wind shifted and blew the ice pack out into the lake, so they are able to get boats in and out of the harbor. There was a boat out yesterday and I guess they were sailing through a field of ice chunks!

Anyway, my charter is on for next weekend. And instead of an '81 Islander I get a '13 Jeanneau.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Still ice to the horizon here. Some of the icebergs go down about 8ft deep. It's incredible. Keep your eyes open, one shift of the wind and all that ice will be back in your harbor in half a day.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Memopad said:


> Still ice to the horizon here. Some of the icebergs go down about 8ft deep. It's incredible. Keep your eyes open, one shift of the wind and all that ice will be back in your harbor in half a day.


Wow!

Yeah, it's a bit of a thing. The person from the charter company told me that people are only daysailing now, but she thought it would be OK for us to anchor out next weekend. But like you said, a wind shift could blow all that ice back.

I know it's dangerous, but I am loving the idea of sailing through an ice pack.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

This is from last weekend in Marquette harbor. The ice moved out far enough to sail the mini around for a while. It was very fun sailing around the ice, especially with the underwater camera!


----------



## Alden68 (Mar 21, 2007)

Wow that was really cool!

Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk


----------



## Chas H (Sep 6, 2013)

Minnesail said:


> Wow!
> 
> I know it's dangerous, but I am loving the idea of sailing through an ice pack.


Your '13 Jeanneau must have a steel hull. If not keep your dink ready at the rail or pick a big ice cube to jump on if you get stove in by one of those big growlers. What the heck it's a charter.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Chas H said:


> Your '13 Jeanneau must have a steel hull. If not keep your dink ready at the rail or pick a big ice cube to jump on if you get stove in by one of those big growlers. What the heck it's a charter.


I'll check with the charter company to see if they offer a "Titanic" option on the insurance.

Here's the NOAA forecast:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WAVES CALM TO 2 FEET.
NOTE...WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE FOR ICE FREE AREAS.


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

I've been watching local webcams and talking to the charter company and there is ice all over. Some just random floating chunks, in other places stacking up in sheets. The island marina about five miles from the charter marina is totally iced in.

They're sending charterers out with boats

The owners of the charter company said they were going to go out tonight in their fast powerboat to survey the ice situation. My car is packed and I get up there tomorrow afternoon and they'll advise me then if it's safe to anchor out, or if they'd prefer we return to the marina every night.

I'm hoping I get to anchor in an ice field so I can play Shackleton! (If Shackleton had an Espar heater.)


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

I watched an ore freighter get stuck leaving the docks last weekend. It was creeping along and slowly came to a stop in the ice. Heard him throttle up, smoke pouring out the stacks, and the ice in front of the boat just started moving UP. The pile of ice was about halfway up the bow of the ship before the thing started moving forward again... lol


----------



## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Minnesail said:


> I've been watching local webcams and talking to the charter company and there is ice all over. Some just random floating chunks, in other places stacking up in sheets. The island marina about five miles from the charter marina is totally iced in.


Hey Minn, you should come north to Thunder Bay. We've been mostly ice-free for a week or so now. Looks like all the ice blew south, and is still lodged down there.










Of course it's still freakin' cold, but at least we're ice-free now.


----------



## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Drift ice is really nothing to mess around with. I've been caught out in salt water drift ice. It can blow back and close in a harbor very quickly. Trying to get back in through it can cut through a hull at the waterline. It will also immediately clog the water intake.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Nevermind the ice still drifting around out there is 6-8ft thick...


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

Yeah, the ice blew south and blocked most of us in. But recently it switched and blew the ice out into the lake, so off we go. I just got an email from a guy in Duluth that as recently as yesterday didn't think he could get out this weekend, but a west wind blew the ice away from the lift bridge so he'll be able to get out of the harbor and out to the open lake.

I think caution will be the word for the weekend.


----------



## wolffy (Oct 23, 2006)

Memopad said:


> This is from last weekend in Marquette harbor. The ice moved out far enough to sail the mini around for a while. It was very fun sailing around the ice, especially with the underwater camera!


Nice video Memo
what camera is that? I'm looking for a "gopro" type of camera

On the Ice front I just talked to Scott the service manager at Barkers Island marina in Superior they are launching boats as fast as they can but there is no sailing as the entire harbor is iced in. the wind blew it in a few days ago.

so it may be June


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

wolffy said:


> Nice video Memo
> what camera is that? I'm looking for a "gopro" type of camera
> 
> On the Ice front I just talked to Scott the service manager at Barkers Island marina in Superior they are launching boats as fast as they can but there is no sailing as the entire harbor is iced in. the wind blew it in a few days ago.
> ...


I have a gopro hero 3+ black. Like it a lot so far!

The Marquette Yacht Club has floating docks that go in the harbor so we can't even put our docks in till the ice stops moving around. Gonna be a while yet! Luckily the mini's don't need a ramp or a dock or much of anything


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

I had a great three-day charter in the Apostles! And there was ice. Lots and lots of ice. Big bergs, little bergs, slushy stuff.

The ice collected in areas, sometimes big fields of it and other times just lines. Once you were free of those areas it was mostly open, and two days out of three we had good wind and got some nice sailing in.

There were a lot of clothing changes involved, because if you were getting a land breeze it was very warm, t-shirt and short pants warm, but if you were getting a lake breeze it was long underwear and winter hat cold. Some of the time I helmed wearing Columbia thinsulate winter gloves.

I talked to people who have lived up there their whole lives and never seen the ice like this. I got a lot of good pictures, once I get them together I'll post some.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

I'll attach a photo of Superior from this past weekend. 85 degrees at the shore, nothing but ice on the lake. Quite a site. When the breeze shifts directions off the water the temp drops down to about 50 instantly lol


----------



## Seaduction (Oct 24, 2011)

bljones said:


> No, it's not.
> It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.
> 
> Quoting George Will on the climate change is like quoting Stephen Hawking on running a marathon. Smart guy, no real knowledge on the subject.


Absolutely the worst display of liberal idiocy that I have seen posted here on the heretofore rational forum.


----------



## Seaduction (Oct 24, 2011)

There is evidence of climate variations covering more that the last 20 years, as most of you folks know:


----------



## Squidd (Sep 26, 2011)

I knew that...


----------



## Seaduction (Oct 24, 2011)

You knew that?! Well then the matter is "settled", isn't it?


----------



## Squidd (Sep 26, 2011)

Far as I'm concerned...


----------



## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

Seaduction said:


> Absolutely the worst display of liberal idiocy that I have seen posted here on the heretofore rational forum.


If this is the worst you have found, it demonstrates the weakness of your research skills. Trust me, there is idiocy much greater than my post on semantics. 
Like your response, for example. Only a moron would argue that a post clarifying the semantics of a previous post is idiocy, and liberal idiocy at that. Try to keep up. Don't be afraid to ask for help with the big words. There are a few liberal teachers more than willing to help, I am sure.

Nice graph, by the way. If you look at the graph, see the dramatic rise at the end, you know, after, oh, 1. 7 million years of relatively static CO2 levels? Notice that it has occurred since the rise of tool making man and began to really climb when we discovered our penchant for fossil fuels? the last time we saw an uptick this dramatic, according to your graph, was the jurassic period...

... when those fossil fuels were created.

You know how well that ended for the dinosaurs.

So, yes, when you go back more than 20 years and understand the data you are reading, you discover that the earth is becoming an interesting place to live, CO2-wise, for the first time in more than a million and a half years. Might be coincidence that it coincides with the rise of modern man. But, what is the worst consequence of arguing that it isn't coincidence? What is the worst consequence of saying " Yeah, it's human caused, we gotta do something about it." ? You might have to start thinking about your consumption choices. THAT is the downside. Seems to me like $4/gallon gasoline and high heating and air conditioning costs is already doing that for you.

The really amusing thing about this stupid conversation is that many conservatives will tell you that your graph is inaccurate, in fact a complete fabrication, since the Earth is less than 6000 years old.

Interesting that you see me as "liberal," Most here would disagree with you. Or is "liberal" just your all purpose label for anyone smarter than you?


----------



## fryewe (Dec 4, 2004)

You guys are about to be sent to the PRWG woodshed...heh...

Seems a shame. I'm sure many who never visit OT/PRWG are enjoying the pix of the ice in the lake in summer.


----------



## jackdale (Dec 1, 2008)

Seaduction said:


> There is evidence of climate variations covering more that the last 20 years, as most of you folks know:


Milankovitch cycles.


----------



## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Seaduction said:


> You knew that?! Well then the matter is "settled", isn't it?


To quote from the very book _you_ cite,the book that your graph comes from -

* "Earth's climate is rapidly warming and it is clear that humans are the cause of this change"* - Earth's Climate Past and Future by William Ruddiman


----------



## miatapaul (Dec 15, 2006)

Sal Paradise said:


> To quote from the very book _you_ cite,the book that your graph comes from -
> 
> * "Earth's climate is rapidly warming and it is clear that humans are the cause of this change"* - Earth's Climate Past and Future by William Ruddiman


Oh you mean you meant for him to more than just look at the pictures with the squiggly line on them?


----------



## wolffy (Oct 23, 2006)

I can officially report the the ice is gone at least in the south east part of the lake so lets get out sailing. "if it's going to happen it's going to happen out there"










after 7 years on the hard Barefoot is back in the water!!


----------



## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

wolffy said:


> after 7 years on the hard Barefoot is back in the water!!


You're going to have to change the status line beneath your username!

Looks like you're having lots of good fun.


----------



## Memopad (Jul 4, 2008)

Nice looking boat wolffy


----------



## kwaltersmi (Aug 14, 2006)

wolffy - What boat is Barefoot? A Pearson 365?


----------

