# What would you do you are off Hatteras ?



## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

1. Are you nut Moron, stay home hahah. 
2. Sail right into it this coming Monday nite and Tuesday Morning, the weather is likely to be wrong.
3. Hey, just perfect condition to wet my appetite, go for it.

I am ready, and fly out tomorrow nite to FLL.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

You are taliking about northbound?

Well the wind is up your bum (in a number of ways  )so the gulf stream wont be rough. You will have one fast trip.

The wind is far more than I like. Even if its from astern.


Now, if you mean you are heading southbound around the you'd be nuts  stark raving bonkers. I dont plug into a forceast 35 knot winds.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Yes, we are heading north. Leaving FLL this Friday to Annapolis. I am thinking of just flying a tiny staysail. However, according to the weather, we do have a brief period of time that we will have some northern component of wind (less than 4 hours), we can sail east to gain some more sea room.

We have SSB and modem to get weather fax, etc. so we can make our decision as we approach NC. We can make a left if we have to.


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## jsaronson (Dec 13, 2011)

What will it be like in 2 days when you are there? Today's conditions don't mean much. You're on a 59 footer? Working jib should be fine.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

You wont need SSB as you will be inside the gulfstream, so you will have VHF weather.

Yeah, I would be going jib only, maybe poled out if its that far behind, but only a small snippet of sail.

Opt out point of Beaufort NC.

But asy you say, if its predicted for a weeks time whats the chances.... Nil.

Mark


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I would be thinking twice about being in that. I'd be looking at a number of different forecasts, surface and 500mb charts, etc. not just a Passage Weather map. Look out ahead a few days. I'd be thinking ICW at Beaufort or sooner if it looked like getting beat up. It's a big boat but do you know what it can do?


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## killarney_sailor (May 4, 2006)

Keep checking the weather as you get closer. If it is a big capable boat there should not be a problem going northbound in those winds.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

killarney_sailor said:


> Keep checking the weather as you get closer. If it is a big capable boat there should not be a problem going northbound in those winds.


I will. If system swings to any north wind we will duck in Wilmington. I am not quite sure if we should wait until we get to Beaufort, NC as Mark suggested. I will study the charts carefully.

Thanks.


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## Coquina (Dec 27, 2012)

This area is not called the Graveyard of The Atlantic for nothing. If I had even a slight HINT of wind going north or east I would go inside.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

Coquina said:


> This area is not called the Graveyard of The Atlantic for nothing. If I had even a slight HINT of wind going north or east I would go inside.


Uhhh, not with that boat's 85' air draft, you wouldn't ...


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Coquina said:


> This area is not called the Graveyard of The Atlantic for nothing. If I had even a slight HINT of wind going north or east I would go inside.


I can understand to duck inside the port for northern wind, but not sure why Easterly will be a problem if one keeps enough sea room off the shoal . The boat sails windward quite well with her high performance sails with two tracks, plus a powerful Yanmar engine with 125 horses.

Please explain. Regardless, I will be utmost caution at all time.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> I will. If system swings to any north wind we will duck in Wilmington. I am not quite sure if we should wait until we get to Beaufort, NC as Mark suggested. I will study the charts carefully.


If you can make it up to Cape Fear and around Frying Pan before you might have to pull the plug, I'd do that and go into Wrightsville rather than Southport... Beaufort and Southport are both good spots to wait for more favorable conditions, but the big downside to either is that is can be a long way back out and around again - either Frying Pan, or Cape Lookout Shoals, when you resume the trip... You can save yourself a bit of distance overall by going into to Wrightsville, then shooting straight for Diamond Shoals...


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Jon, that is I was thinking too to get to Wilmington area. How is Bald Head Island Marina, it seems relatively easy on and off. Or should I go to what you suggested Wrightsville. From Active Captain, I did not see any easy marina we can go. Perhaps, Atlantic Marine?

TIA


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> Jon, that is I was thinking too to get to Wilmington area. How is Bald Head Island Marina, it seems relatively easy on and off. Or should I go to what you suggested Wrightsville. From Active Captain, I did not see any easy marina we can go. Perhaps, Atlantic Marine?
> 
> TIA


I wouldn't try to go into Bald Head with 8+ draft... you'd probably make it at high water, but the entrance is very narrow, little margin for error... Plus, there's not much there, it would be very quiet this early in the season...

Southport Marina is probably your best bet, nice spot... Make sure they know about your draft, however, there may even be issues there, at least in certain slips. There's also a new marina just a bit up the river from Southport, but I've never been in there...

Atlantic Marine - sorry, I'm not familiar with that one...


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## captbillc (Jul 31, 2008)

that's a 60+ ft boat ? we took a 50ft shannon from SW harbor Maine to bermuda in november. 200 miles out at night it was blowing 40, gusting to 57 knots. wind was on the stbd quarter blowing against the gulf stream. we had the full main up & dropped the mizzen from time to time. made 10 knots down the swells & 8 knots up them. it was a quite a ride. we took a wave that filled the cockpit about 2 in the morning when i was at the helm. we made god time !


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## justified (Jun 14, 2007)

If you have to bailout before Frying pan then I would go into Southport. Never stayed there but the cape fear entrance is very well marked and not far up to Southport. your next spot would be Marlborough inlet and over to Wrightsville. You may however have some dapth issues once you hit the main ICW channel. There is a nice marina just to the North south of the bridge - see active captain. If you make it up to Beaufort I would go to Beaufort town docks very easy on and off - long outside tees. 
Have a safe and fantastic trip.
Peter


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## blt2ski (May 5, 2005)

Someone is worried about a 50-60+ foot boat in 30-40 knot winds? Going with the wind no less!?!?!?! Some folks would have a chute up planing in the 20+ knot range! Could be fun in my 30' boat frankly. I hit 11 one time with a full main and 110 up. She does really well with a double up in 30+, I have to say that 11 was a hoot. Was doing 7-10+ that day with 30-40 knots of wind. Hoot of a down wind run. 

Yeah the ocean is a bit bigger waved than here in puget sound......but still, those winds would be normal in Scotland! or some other places. Enjoy the downwind/current run would be my saying on this......Too bad I am on the left coast at the moment......

marty


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## fallard (Nov 30, 2009)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> You wont need SSB as you will be inside the gulfstream, so you will have VHF weather
> 
> Mark


Last time I sailed north in the Gulf Stream (with SSB) we were about 140 miles offshore as we sailed past Georgia. You wouldn't get weather on VHF unless it was relayed from someone else with SSB or satellite.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

JonEisberg said:


> I wouldn't try to go into Bald Head with 8+ draft... you'd probably make it at high water, but the entrance is very narrow, little margin for error... Plus, there's not much there, it would be very quiet this early in the season...
> 
> Southport Marina is probably your best bet, nice spot... Make sure they know about your draft, however, there may even be issues there, at least in certain slips. There's also a new marina just a bit up the river from Southport, but I've never been in there...
> 
> Atlantic Marine - sorry, I'm not familiar with that one...


Thanks for the heads up on Southport Marina, I will call them tomorrow. IF they can't take us, I will ask for their suggestions up river. There is Indigo Plantation Marina and South Harbour Village Marina.

Southport seems easier than Wrightsville.

Thanks.


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

rockDAWG said:


> 1. Are you nut Moron, stay home hahah.
> 2. Sail right into it this coming Monday nite and Tuesday Morning, the weather is likely to be wrong.
> 3. Hey, just perfect condition to wet my appetite, go for it.
> 
> I am ready, and fly out tomorrow nite to FLL.


In the first place you are missing a LOT of weather information looking at gribs. I've made this speech before so I'll shorten it - the GFS computer model that generates gribs smooths over barometric discountinuities like fronts. See my aggregation of synoptic charts here.

Note that there is an occluded front stalled behind a mature low that dissipates over the weekend. That means thunderstorms in most cases. As the mature low dissipates the occluded front becomes a cold front and gets dragged along by the big low over the northeast which is likely to mean a significant wind shift completely glossed over in the gribs.

If you head offshore at 045T from FLL in SElys by midday on Friday, watch sea temperature to find the middle of the stream, the cold front will pass over you Sunday(ish) with the usual wind shifts. Really shouldn't be a problem on a big boat. Keep the boat moving and watch the radar. If the front moves fast or you are slow you may have to move East out of the Gulf Stream in anticipation of the wind shift - I don't like to give up the boost earlier than I have to.

As the high moves in behind the front you'll have light air for a while - all the more reason to be in the heart of the Gulf Stream.

Anything further out than that is guessing at this point. Watch the weather faxes.



rockDAWG said:


> I can understand to duck inside the port for northern wind, but not sure why Easterly will be a problem if one keeps enough sea room off the shoal.


Look at the Gulf Stream imagery. The curve of the US coast line drives the Stream along the coast of the Carolinas into a northeasterly direction before tipping further yet (driven by the Labrador Current among other things) and heading for Europe.

By the way, if you take the path espoused by others earlier in this thread and stay nearer shore watch for counter currents. You can really get knocked inshore. I'd go Gulf Stream center and out.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

It looks like a variable mix of fronts out about 48 hours. Think I'd avoid being off Hatteras or going around Frying Pan during that time frame. Too much uncertainty. Out 96 hrs., it looks like a high pressure system moving in. That may well put a north component in the wind. Just my opinion but I'd be thinking in terms of short hops up the coast, waiting for weather windows rather than getting committed far offshore this time of the year. Interesting advice you're getting but I'd err on the side of caution in those waters.


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## Coquina (Dec 27, 2012)

I am seriously not trying to be an interwebs troll, but you have no idea what you are talking about. 
30-40 knots of wind is serious business when dealing with a large area of shoals, 3,000 miles of fetch, and a swift flowing current. I have a few thousand miles of offshore experience and have sailed through a hurricane. I would be VERY scared to be caught off Hatteras in a Northeaster with 30 to 40 knots 

Now wind and current on the stern as in that forecast is sailing heaven. My boat would be FLYING up the stream towards home likley turning in 200+ mile days. The issue is the potential for that to change and put you in the perfect trap - the same one that has been killing ships and men since the 1400s.

* btw, it wasn't near Hatteras thank God, but crossing the stream with wind against current produced an effect we called the "toilet bowl". Within the space of 5 minutes we took a ton of green water from port, starboard, and aft.



blt2ski said:


> Someone is worried about a 50-60+ foot boat in 30-40 knot winds? Going with the wind no less!?!?!?! Some folks would have a chute up planing in the 20+ knot range! Could be fun in my 30' boat frankly. I hit 11 one time with a full main and 110 up. She does really well with a double up in 30+, I have to say that 11 was a hoot. Was doing 7-10+ that day with 30-40 knots of wind. Hoot of a down wind run.
> 
> Yeah the ocean is a bit bigger waved than here in puget sound......but still, those winds would be normal in Scotland! or some other places. Enjoy the downwind/current run would be my saying on this......Too bad I am on the left coast at the moment......
> 
> marty


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Coquina said:


> I am seriously not trying to be an interwebs troll, but you have no idea what you are talking about.
> 30-40 knots of wind is serious business when dealing with a large area of shoals, 3,000 miles of fetch, and a swift flowing current. I have a few thousand miles of offshore experience and have sailed through a hurricane. I would be VERY scared to be caught off Hatteras in a Northeaster with 30 to 40 knots
> 
> Now wind and current on the stern as in that forecast is sailing heaven. My boat would be FLYING up the stream towards home likley turning in 200+ mile days. *The issue is the potential for that to change and put you in the perfect trap - the same one that has been killing ships and men since the 1400s. *
> ...


Indeed! That is the point.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

smurphny said:


> It looks like a variable mix of fronts out about 48 hours. Think I'd avoid being off Hatteras or going around Frying Pan during that time frame. Too much uncertainty. Out 96 hrs., it looks like a high pressure system moving in. That may well put a north component in the wind. Just my opinion but I'd be thinking in terms of short hops up the coast, waiting for weather windows rather than getting committed far offshore this time of the year. Interesting advice you're getting but I'd err on the side of caution in those waters.


The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.

Thanks everyone's comment. Regardless, I will be prudent. I have confident on my Captain and his boat. Likewise, the Captain respects my input. We always work out our differences based sound practices.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

SVAuspicious said:


> In the first place you are missing a LOT of weather information looking at gribs. I've made this speech before so I'll shorten it - the GFS computer model that generates gribs smooths over barometric discountinuities like fronts. See my aggregation of synoptic charts here.


It is just because I only posted the GRIBS from Passageweather on my post, it does not signal that this is the only sources I use. Color GRIB is colorful and catchy. But in all my iDevices, I have link to all weather maps.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrwind_wave.gif
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif



> Note that there is an occluded front stalled behind a mature low that dissipates over the weekend. That means thunderstorms in most cases. As the mature low dissipates the occluded front becomes a cold front and gets dragged along by the big low over the northeast which is likely to mean a significant wind shift completely glossed over in the gribs.
> 
> If you head offshore at 045T from FLL in SElys by midday on Friday, watch sea temperature to find the middle of the stream, the cold front will pass over you Sunday(ish) with the usual wind shifts. Really shouldn't be a problem on a big boat. Keep the boat moving and watch the radar. If the front moves fast or you are slow you may have to move East out of the Gulf Stream in anticipation of the wind shift - I don't like to give up the boost earlier than I have to.
> 
> As the high moves in behind the front you'll have light air for a while - all the more reason to be in the heart of the Gulf Stream.


This makes sense and is applicable in many situations.



> By the way, if you take the path espoused by others earlier in this thread and stay nearer shore watch for counter currents. You can really get knocked inshore. I'd go Gulf Stream center and out.


That is my concern too. I would rather be lonely in the middle of nowhere than seeing land.

All points are taken and understood.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Have a great trip! I'm jealous.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.


Don't be a wooos! Be in the Gulf Stream, but close to the edge. Then make the decision when the change comes.

Yes, by the gribs only, (i am too lazy to really work it out ) you may have 12 hours of NE, but how many hours of that are over 20 knots?

All you can do is have some options planned but assess it when you are out there.

How accurate do you think you can plot the western wall of the GS? Its much easier than the east side which isnt so much a wall but a slower fading, isnt it?


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> The northerly wind will definitely be there on Sunday, it seems unavoidable for at least 12 hours. We can position ourselves off the GS on the east side, or we duck in Wilmington.


Seems pretty optimistic at this point, to think that 72 hours from now that will turn out to be entirely accurate...

Just a friendly reminder, although it seems as if winter is finally over here on the East coast, this can still be a VERY volatile time of the year anywhere in the vicinity of Hatteras, the most difficult time of the year to forecast, IMHO. I'd sooner have to take my chances going around Hatteras in January, than in March, or some years in April...

There have been some very serious storms that have come out of nowhere in recent years in the spring in that part of the North Atlantic...

The writer Michael Tougias has made a living writing about them, and the yachts that were lost:

Overboard!: A True Blue-water Odyssey of Disaster and Survival: Michael J. Tougias: 9781439145753: Amazon.com: [email protected]@[email protected]@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/[email protected]@[email protected]@51C2PMI3PaL

A Storm Too Soon: A True Story of Disaster, Survival and an Incredible Rescue: Michael J. Tougias: 9781451683349: Amazon.com: [email protected]@[email protected]@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/[email protected]@[email protected]@510-pMLP6iL

During the storm which claimed the life of the skipper of ALMESIAN, I was hunkered down in my little tub behind a Mexican restaurant the Dismal Swamp Canal... The weather even in there was pretty ferocious, I can't imagine what it was like offshore...

I had just left Lauderdale with a powerboat at the time the second "Storm Too Soon" developed, literally overnight... Only made it to Ft Pierce before having to duck back inside. The 56' Little Harbor FLYING COLOURS, enroute to the Chesapeake from the islands with a professional crew, disappeared without a trace... I finally got back outside from Charleston to Beaufort, and that afternoon running from Frying Pan up to Morehead, the ocean was literally carpeted with styrofoam packing, from a ship that had lost a few dozen containers... the next day, I had a look at Oregon Inlet, the swell was still rolling, bigtime... So I bit the bullet and turned around, staying inside to Norfolk, one of the few times I ever thought Oregon might be do-able, but wasn't...

And that was about a month later than now... So, just sayin'...


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Thanks Jon, all understood. I will keep the captain and his boat safe, his wife told me so. 

Just make a reservation at 

South Harbour Village Marina
4909 Fish Factory Rd
Southport, NC 28461
United States (US)
910-454-7486 (Fax: 910-457-6930)

Their Draft is 12 feet in their transient dock, so it is perfect. Southport Marina has only 8 ft draft at low tide. They sent me to South Harbour Village Marina. Both marinas were very nice and accommodating on the phone. 

I read A storm too Soon when it was just come out. Excellent reading and learn a lot and give me a sense what to expect.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> Don't be a wooos! Be in the Gulf Stream, but close to the edge. Then make the decision when the change comes.
> 
> Yes, by the gribs only, (i am too lazy to really work it out ) you may have 12 hours of NE, but how many hours of that are over 20 knots?
> 
> ...


The biggest complain about FRC for me is there is no sea water thermometer installed to tell me if we are in GS.

I do bring my portable IR thermometer with me, but not sure how good for this type of reading. I guess if the sea state is like water in the washing machine with the north wind, we will know we are in the GS. .... run.... hahaha.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

Why not use the thermometer built into the transducer? Set your sounder to “Temp” or configure the data group on your chart plotter. Try reading the manuals for your navigation instruments.


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

On the US east coast, anytime you hear "occluded front" you can also hear the weathercasters yelling "Mommy! I broke my Magic-8-Ball!". Figure it can take 48 hours before predictions are really more than hunches when that happens.

Meanwhile, call Larry Ellison, there's some might fine hydrofoils you might be able to borrow to make that ride really fun. (VBG)

BTW, personally I HATE IT when anyone says "Easterly" or "Westerly" etc. Because "easterly" is defined both as "coming from the east" and "moving towards the east" so there's no way to tell if someone means an EAST WIND or WEST WIND. Which are only defined as coming from the named point. Shorter, more precise, impossible to confuse.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

GeorgeB said:


> Why not use the thermometer built into the transducer? Set your sounder to "Temp" or configure the data group on your chart plotter. Try reading the manuals for your navigation instruments.


He said it was busted a long ago. He has a long list thing to do in Annapolis in his excel worksheet. I may do some for him.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

The depth sounder is broken? That explains running aground.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

hellosailor said:


> BTW, personally I HATE IT when anyone says "Easterly" or "Westerly" etc. Because "easterly" is defined both as "coming from the east" and "moving towards the east" so there's no way to tell if someone means an EAST WIND or WEST WIND. Which are only defined as coming from the named point. Shorter, more precise, impossible to confuse.


That is what I always say to my secretary. Because English so suck, she always has a job in proofreading.....hahaha.

To make the matter worse, when we talk about wind, it means the direction when is coming from. when we talk about current, it always means what direction it is going to. I have the hardest time


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> Don't be a wooos!


I must be on Sailnet too long. I just hang around sailnet and fuss around the boat, and call myself a sailor. Occasionally, I sail to Europe on QEII and brag about it. 
Other: Hey have sailed the big Pond.
Me: Of course, I sailed to UK twice.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> The biggest complain about FRC for me is there is no sea water thermometer installed to tell me if we are in GS.
> 
> a.


Get a bucket of water from over the side and pour it over yourself.....

If you don't freeze to death you are still in the gulf stream.....


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

dawg-
FWIW, a temperature sensor is usually a very dumb thermistor, a slab of "stuff" that changes resistance as the temperature changes. Which makes them about as delicate as a rock.
Odds are if it is broken, it is NOT broken, but one of the wires connected to it has broken. So, if you want to bother, you disconnect the wires, check the two leads that go to the thermistor with an ohmmeter. If it says "zero" or "infinite" the rock is probably broken. If it says anything else on any other scale, odds are some new wire (or finding and fixing the break) is all it needs.
Rashly assuming the problem is not in the display head.

Of course, you could also get one of those cheap $25 no-contact IR thermometer guns, and just point it over the side from time to time. (G)

Useful for checking the engine coolant, and the hot tub, too.


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## captain44 (Mar 6, 2014)

I'm trying to learn as much as I can from this thread--and it's shown what is useful about this and other such online forums without the stupid and arrogant remarks we so often see. Whenever I have expressed doubts about inexperienced and foolish sailors trying to do stupid things on the cheap I sound off and then am told to shut up and let people be. So then why ask for advice? But Rockdawg is a prudent sailor and doing the right things and the respondents are providing good ideas. It seems to me that no matter what or where we are discussing, we are still talking about a particular boat with a particular group of folks and the decisions to go where and when exactly are of course, ultimately up to them. I also think that the "gribs" while generally very reliable do not tell the whole story and that a weather routing expert (one respondent gave good ideas)would be quite helpful. On the one hand the winds will be abaft the beam. On the other hand it could be quite cold and we are talking about the Gulf Stream and...the dreaded North Carolina Capes. Yes there are some inlets in which to hole up but not all will likely be advisable for an entry in high winds and seas--Masonboro at Wrightsville for example might not work well especially with deep draft but Beaufort/Morehead and Wilmington/Cape Fear might be fine. I think the ultimate decider might be the timing and if it were me I might go a little north in the stream and put in at Jacksonville or mayve even Charleston and wait for a clearing while much closer to my destination. Or I might just delay all together and wait for a more optimal wx window. The issue of searoom and shoals, Gulf Stream and Hatteras conditions seems to make this trip marginal but again--it's only my opinion. There should never be a hurry when talking sailing. Ultimately the captain and crew have to decide and we all now that. Let us imagine for a minute if the captain of the ill-fated Bounty had gone online here asking for advice. What would we have said and would he have listened? Hey RockDawg--waiting for you in Annapolis. I just sailed from Norfolk back here in total fog, then we had heavy rain and gale NW (as in from the NW...heh heh) winds. But its calm and warming up so give me a shout!


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

hellosailor said:


> BTW, personally I HATE IT when anyone says "Easterly" or "Westerly" etc. Because "easterly" is defined both as "coming from the east" and "moving towards the east" so there's no way to tell if someone means an EAST WIND or WEST WIND. Which are only defined as coming from the named point. Shorter, more precise, impossible to confuse.





rockDAWG said:


> To make the matter worse, when we talk about wind, it means the direction when is coming from. when we talk about current, it always means what direction it is going to. I have the hardest time


Some things you just have to remember.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

captain44 said:


> I'm trying to learn as much as I can from this thread--and it's shown what is useful about this and other such online forums without the stupid and arrogant remarks we so often see. Whenever I have expressed doubts about inexperienced and foolish sailors trying to do stupid things on the cheap I sound off and then am told to shut up and let people be. So then why ask for advice? But Rockdawg is a prudent sailor and doing the right things and the respondents are providing good ideas. It seems to me that no matter what or where we are discussing, we are still talking about a particular boat with a particular group of folks and the decisions to go where and when exactly are of course, ultimately up to them. I also think that the "gribs" while generally very reliable do not tell the whole story and that a weather routing expert (one respondent gave good ideas)would be quite helpful. On the one hand the winds will be abaft the beam. On the other hand it could be quite cold and we are talking about the Gulf Stream and...the dreaded North Carolina Capes. Yes there are some inlets in which to hole up but not all will likely be advisable for an entry in high winds and seas--Masonboro at Wrightsville for example might not work well especially with deep draft but Beaufort/Morehead and Wilmington/Cape Fear might be fine. I think the ultimate decider might be the timing and if it were me I might go a little north in the stream and put in at Jacksonville or mayve even Charleston and wait for a clearing while much closer to my destination. Or I might just delay all together and wait for a more optimal wx window. The issue of searoom and shoals, Gulf Stream and Hatteras conditions seems to make this trip marginal but again--it's only my opinion. There should never be a hurry when talking sailing. Ultimately the captain and crew have to decide and we all now that. Let us imagine for a minute if the captain of the ill-fated Bounty had gone online here asking for advice. What would we have said and would he have listened? Hey RockDawg--waiting for you in Annapolis. I just sailed from Norfolk back here in total fog, then we had heavy rain and gale NW (as in from the NW...heh heh) winds. But its calm and warming up so give me a shout!


The GRIB graphics are interesting to look at and useful but they are the end result of someone's guesswork, a snapshot of a moment in time. As we all know, weather predictions are just that: guesses, hypotheses based on questionable and changing data. After about 24 hrs, the reliability plummets. Depending on the "magic" of GRIB graphics as a primary source of weather predictions would be less than wise. Collecting and assessing multiple sources of info. and obtaining local experience of weather patterns is the most reliable way to make decisions. The local experience is the most difficult to come by when you are in unfamiliar places. It's also probably the most important.


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## Shinook (Jul 13, 2012)

rockDAWG said:


> Thanks Jon, all understood. I will keep the captain and his boat safe, his wife told me so.
> 
> Just make a reservation at
> 
> ...


Be sure to run next door to Provision Company


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Just north of FLL, We are smoking. 12 knot SOG. Beam reach 

Heading north 12 degree to Wilmington.


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## captain44 (Mar 6, 2014)

12 knots and 12 degrees to Wilmington. I hope it is Celsius and not Fahrenheit.... I always get that mixed up..... and SOG... (silly old goat?) GO FOR IT!!!!!!!


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Haha hey. ..... We use kelvin. 

It went up to 14.1 kn. captain is having a ball. He said the fastest FRC archive was 18.5. His previous boat was 25 kn in TransPac with a kite. 

Still getting 3G.


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## captain44 (Mar 6, 2014)

3G???? As in three gs as in lifting off in a rocket? Or did you mean the girls in Apartment 3g as in the old comic strip? You are using Kelvin? I hope he does not file a lawsuit...Kelvin--are you out there buddy?


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

How is the sea state? Sounds like you are having a blast! What's the winds? What's the sail config? Nothing runs like a *FREE RANGE CHICKEN!!!*


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

smurphny said:


> The GRIB graphics are interesting to look at and useful but they are the end result of someone's guesswork, a snapshot of a moment in time.


No. The problem is that gribs are the direct output of a single computer model untouched by human hands. The value of synoptics (again, see AuspiciousWorks - Communications / Yacht Management / Deliveries Worldwide ) is that a meteorologist uses the product of multiple computer models, data returns from atmospheric sounding, overhead visual and radar imagery, and spot reporting to develop a forecast using the best information and expertise available.

Sometime Monday you should hit a period of light air. That will be the precursor for a new cold front collapsing into the remnants of the occluded front we talked about above. You could easily see 35 to 40 knots sustained from the SW with thunderstorms Monday late into Tuesday. If you aren't North of Diamond Shoals light by the time you get light air think hard about Beaufort NC or heading way way East.

Sounds like you are staying inside so I'd plan on Beaufort. Watch the counter currents - they will really knock you back.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

SVAuspicious said:


> No. The problem is that gribs are the direct output of a single computer model untouched by human hands. The value of synoptics (again, see AuspiciousWorks - Communications / Yacht Management / Deliveries Worldwide ) is that a meteorologist uses the product of multiple computer models, data returns from atmospheric sounding, overhead visual and radar imagery, and spot reporting to develop a forecast using the best information and expertise available.
> 
> Sometime Monday you should hit a period of light air. That will be the precursor for a new cold front collapsing into the remnants of the occluded front we talked about above. You could easily see 35 to 40 knots sustained from the SW with thunderstorms Monday late into Tuesday. If you aren't North of Diamond Shoals light by the time you get light air think hard about Beaufort NC or heading way way East.
> 
> Sounds like you are staying inside so I'd plan on Beaufort. Watch the counter currents - they will really knock you back.


That would be a unique computer indeed;one that programs itself


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

smurphny said:


> That would be a unique computer indeed;one that programs itself


I think you don't understand the way the models, particularly the GFS model, work(s). One of the real values of meteorologist value-added products like synoptics is that the meteorologists DO understand the models and their limitations.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

SVAuspicious said:


> I think you don't understand the way the models, particularly the GFS model, work(s). One of the real values of meteorologist value-added products like synoptics is that the meteorologists DO understand the models and their limitations.


I'm sure I have no idea what goes into the algorithms of those computer models but am confident it is the best we can do. I am still helping to restore my relative's place on the Jersey Shore which fell victim to Sandy, that weird storm that none of the models(except the European) got even remotely right. I'm just saying that no matter how well intentioned the guesses are, they are still our best guesses but a whole lot better than Buys Ballot's and getting better It's hard to imagine what we would do without them, thinking that not all that long ago hurricanes would appear out of nowhere.


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## Raider Curt (Feb 10, 2014)

rockDAWG said:


> Thanks Jon, all understood. I will keep the captain and his boat safe, his wife told me so.
> 
> Just make a reservation at
> 
> ...


South Harbour Village Marina is great. My boat lives there. Unfortunately, I do not. Stop by the Dead End Saloon while you are there. It's on site and has great food as well as "Barley Pops".


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> Just north of FLL, We are smoking. 12 knot SOG. Beam reach
> 
> Heading north 12 degree to Wilmington.


Well, for a 60' high-performance sled like FREE RANGE CHICKEN, 12 knots SOG with a push from the Stream seems fairly pedestrian... Hell, I've seen that on a comparatively stodgy H-R 43, with 17 feet less on the waterline... 










I'm guessing this will not be the 4 day trip originally predicted. I left Oriental Saturday AM with a Valiant 42 in a moderate W, moving NW to NE... Forecast to blow hard last nght after midnight, so I wanted to get across Albemarle Sound before it did. Not bad, was NE about 15 when I started across the sound, fortunately the chop was running a bit more out of the east, so my speed wasn't knocked too badly... Made it across a bit before midnight, and anchored up close to the eastern shore. Between the time I pulled a beer out the fridge, and I made it back up into the cockpit, the breeze shot up to 25-30, and stayed there for the next 12 hours... I'll take lucky over good every time... 

The last 24-30 hours would have been pretty sporty off Hatteras. I'm guessing the only guys out there making those "easy 200 mile days" northbound were either wearing a Navy uniform, or their ride was a 800' Maersk container ship...


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## blowinstink (Sep 3, 2007)

JonEisberg said:


> I'm guessing this will not be the 4 day trip originally predicted. >>snip<<
> 
> The last 24-30 hours would have been pretty sporty off Hatteras. I'm guessing the only guys out there making those "easy 200 mile days" northbound were either wearing a Navy uniform, or their ride was a 800' Maersk container ship...


I just noticed this thread yesterday and I wondered about the plan to "duck into" Wilmington if things get snotty. That might be fine if you are very near Hatteras when you are headed and things get rough. I hope it works out that way (or better). The potential problem is that if things get snotty further south, your options are more limited. This is because, while the Gulf Stream is close to shore at the outset of the trip (where RD was within 3G range) and similarly close at Hatteras, it is quite far offshore along the way. The stream runs pretty much straight north while the coast falls away to the west for most of the SE coast. As a result, you can easily be 18 hours or more from port if you decide to "duck in" along the way. None of this is criticism, just comments on what is an interesting thread (RD has a knack for them -). I hope RD is having a good run and it sounds like he has the boat, crew, attitude and experience to make the best of it regardless. I'll be interested to hear the post trip debriefing.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Haha, we are alive in Southport, NC. 

Here us my dally entry on on iPhone. Unfortunately, I accidentally delete the the entries. 

Please also note, I suck in English. I often misuse tenses, preposition and articles. Bad grammar. So read it at your own risk. 

Sunday, April 6：

Engine of at 11 pm doing 10 kn SOG. With current 2.5 to 3.5. 

At 1 am I asked how to trim the sails when the wind was light. We were doing less the 5 boat speed at 10 kn with. Bruce went into his full blown teaching mode. And have me running all over. Tighter the adjuster. Got the hydraulic vang tighten and retrim the main to just perfect. We gain a knot. 

I told him I did not like the jib at all, but no matter how I adjust it the tell tail just bad. He said this is it not a good situation to sail with the jib. Told me the bring the lazy jib (port) sheet to starboard out side track. Vila, re trim the jib. Got another knot. It is just like magic. 
God, he knows this stuff. He continue teach me more. I understand. 

At 2:30 am wind piped up to 20 kn 280 degree true wind boat heading to 40 degree. Boat speed over 9 kn with SOG over 12 knots. 

Woke up in an angry sea. captain said the Wind was up 20 plus since 8 am, Clicked to the north. Captan had already buttoned down everything, reefed main only. Our head remain the same between 45 to 50 degree. We lost the GS. 

At 2:45 pm, we are 67 nm to Wilmington. Wind Clocked to east. Boat speed about 8 nm heading north. 

At 6:08 pm we were hit hard wind shifted to north in a sec and pounded with over 30 kn wind. There was another sailboat east of us just a couple nm from us. Less than 10 min, We did not see the boat more. We were on our second reef. Boat holding well, captain was at ease. I am holding on and taking video. 

Wind were up to 37 knot. But sea was rough, totally wet with green water. We got into Southport harbour. It was my fault that that I failed research properly my chart and his chart show the entrance of Cape fear river has less than 6 ft. Captain did not take a chan to go in at mid night. We ended up anchoring next to the side of the channel. We were dead tired and cold. I did not bring more warm clothes. 

After a hot clam chowder we were all happy, not mention ed some good rum.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

We just followed to the GS north, getting 2 to close 5 knots current. We lost the current this Morning (Sunday).

Not sure what was the plan tomorrow, will study the weather before heading out.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

5 knots current??

Wow!

How long did that last for?


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## Coquina (Dec 27, 2012)

Very glad you are doing well and having fun.
Now you know why those of us familiar with the area were warning you - things change fast in that area. You can be the old salt warning the noobs next time


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Cape Fear Inlet 6' depth? It's a class A inlet. I always try to research where I'll be able to anchor once inside an inlet so if it's necessary to go in at night, I have an idea of what I'm looking at. It can be confusing. I'll always have a detailed course plotted in advance, both on the plotter and on paper. Having to wait outside is often not an option. Around any inlet, especially a class A, you always have to be very aware of ship traffic, although at night most of the really big ones seem to be outside in a holding anchorage.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> 5 knots current??
> 
> Wow!
> 
> How long did that last for?


Yeah, 5 plus current, at the 84.2 F. 4 to 4.5 kn was the normal in Florida and Georgia sections. We got a spike counter current 0.5 to 1 kn for a few hours, yesterday. Captain B was so surprise that he uses water temp to navigate instead of wind.....hahha, he is a such a West Coast sailor.

BTW, Did I mention he is a fantastic sailor and good captain (human being or ape) 

Having fun. Wind is expected to go southerly, occassional to 30 to 35 knots wind. May be we can just use staysail sail right into Port Annapolis. hahah.

Just finished our western omelet with shrimp, good coffee.

Thanks guys for all the input, they are all useful in a timely manner.


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## Coquina (Dec 27, 2012)

Last time I went in Cape Fear it looked navigable for a small ship at least.



smurphny said:


> *Cape Fear Inlet 6' depth*? It's a class A inlet. I always try to research where I'll be able to anchor once inside an inlet so if it's necessary to go in at night, I have an idea of what I'm looking at. It can be confusing. I'll always have a detailed course plotted in advance, both on the plotter and on paper. Having to wait outside is often not an option. Around any inlet, especially a class A, you always have to be very aware of ship traffic, although at night most of the really big ones seem to be outside in a holding anchorage.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

rockDAWG said:


> BTW, Did I mention he is a fantastic sailor and good captain (human being or ape)


I guess he is reading over your shoulder???

:laugher


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> I guess he is reading over your shoulder???
> 
> :laugher


Hahahe he had a 870 saw off shotgun pointing to my head. That is why. . Mutiny is at the planning stage. .


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

Six feet? Or six _fathoms_, in the channel?


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

I would have kept going.





































Sorry about the sizes - that's what NOAA distributes. Good stuff, what?

I'll deal with weather when I'm out, but I won't stick my nose into 35-40 kts forecast.


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

2640 pixels wide, and gif images always map at 72 pixels/inch.

*TOO
MUCH
PIXELS *!


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

Coquina said:


> > Originally Posted by smurphny
> > *Cape Fear Inlet 6' depth?* It's a class A inlet.
> 
> 
> Last time I went in Cape Fear it looked navigable for a small ship at least.


The perils of navigation by iPhone, perhaps? 

Perhaps it's shoaled up badly in the years since they berthed the USS NORTH CAROLINA in Wilmington...










Or, perhaps not...


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Haha.... We all are all alive and well. No fishes were harm during our voyage. Last night or this morning was most exciting. 30 to 39 knot doing 13 kn. While I got off my watch they had 48 kn wind. she leaned 45 degrees for a brief period 

We are about 40 nm from Chesapeake bay. It is likely we will head to Annapolis without stopping Norfolk.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Some more notes form my iPhone log:

Monday, April 7:
Everyone woke late this morning about 9 am. Anchorage was great even we have not much protection in Southport 

Had a western omelette with shrimp and coffee. Everyone had a look of the weather and we are going toddy. 

Left anchorage at 12 noon motor sailed south to clear the shoals until we turned left. Wind from 210 blowing 13 to 18 kn, sea is relatively calm. 2 to 4 ft waves. Cloudy. 

At 5:34 pm cloudy sky SOG 8.1 kn boat speed 7.3 kn. under full main and head sail. True wind 187 degree heading 66 degree. We were south east of southport 23 nm. We are heading to Hatteras 85 nm from us. 

At 6:30 pm:
Extra hungry today, we had chicken wings with fermented oyster sauce, old ginger root and scallion over rice. I vaporized the food. LOL. 

Hot tea on my hands, sitting in the cockpit, listening sat radio, life is good. 

Boat speed 8.5 with another knot from current pushing us towards Hatteras. 

Lightning at the distant sky. Captain B laid out his approach to the storm, so everyone knows what to do in a systemic manner. All understood. 

At 11:40 pm 
Perfect sailing wind from SW at 20 kn. one reef and jib. Going thru a squall with purring rain. Sea state not bad at all, comfy ride.

Tuesday, April 8,
At 1:07, we passed point lookout. Could not find 14 red buoy fl r 4s and A buoy either 

Wind increased to above 25 kn from SW, boat speed over 9 kn and SOG above 10 kn. heading to Hatteras at 63 degree. 

1:40 pm:
Whoa what a night or early morning. At 3:30 am during of switching watch, wind pike up to 30 to 40 kn with wind swing all over. With this wind and pitch dark even a simple task become 10x more difficult. We got the main reef again. Taking in the jib, for a second the boat was so imbalance. The autopilot quit. We took out the staysail and the boat is back in a control manner. Wind is still blowing hard. The boat speed was 12 knots. Not sure what was our SOG. I was freaking cold and all wet too lazy to move my ass to the helm. 

I went down below when captain came up at 5 am it was apparent after the noise and screaming, we woke him up. 

I woke up at noon. Wind about 20 kn from south. Just 69 nm from the entrance of Chesapeake bay. Heavy fog is here with visibility 1 to 2 nm. We turned on our fog horn and keep our eyes on the radar 

As now we will not stopping by Norfolk but toward Annapolis. 

At 5:02, we continue to motor sail. Boring . 
It looks like a squall is coming our way from west. Massive radar image on our screen. I rolled up the jib, and button down stuff. Wind clocking from south to west occasional to the north. Massive black cloud growing bigger. Time to get my foul weather gear. LOL. 

Oh did my mentioned they had a knock down this morning at around 6am. Lucky bastards. Damn, I was sleeping soundly.

Sailing up the bay is tough, very light wind on our nose. We motored all the way. We arrived at Back Creek, Annapolis at 3:15 pm on April 9, Wednesday. 

A total of 5 days. If we don't count the anchorage in Southport, NC. The trip took 4.5 days. 

The boat needs some TLC for next few months to get her ready again. I will have the boat while Captain B is away.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

It looks like an universal joint of my Jeep.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)




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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Storm is coming on route to Hatteras









Carbon fiber Rudder, along with the scuba gear including on-board compressor.









Boat Speed at nite:









Little fellow comes in for shelter. The poor little thing was shivering.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

JonEisberg said:


> The perils of navigation by iPhone, perhaps?


We were using the table place-mate chart from the Red Neck watering hole. It has all hand written local knowledge there.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Shot with my iPhone.

https://www.youtube.com/edit?o=U&video_id=M_UoOqfWOW4


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Hey, rocky. The size of your photos has screwed up the thread.

Can u please reduce the size of the pics!


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> Hey, rocky. The size of your photos has screwed up the thread.
> 
> Can u please reduce the size of the pics!


Mark, it was not me. . It is Dave's images. It drives me nutzz too 



SVAuspicious said:


> I would have kept going.
> *Sorry about the sizes - that's what NOAA distributes. *Good stuff, what?
> 
> I'll deal with weather when I'm out, but I won't stick my nose into 35-40 kts forecast.


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## SVAuspicious (Oct 31, 2006)

rockDAWG said:


> Mark, it was not me. . It is Dave's images. It drives me nutzz too


That's how big they are on NOAA's website. Is there a way to mark them up with bbcode to render smaller?


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