# Is international sailing for US citizens a thing of the past



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

With death rate of 385/million and climbing the EU and others are not going to be accepting US travelers. This death rate is a hard number that can’t be dismissed as an artifact of testing rates nor false positive/negative rates of testing. Crispr testing for the virions presence has been licensed by FDA but remains difficult to obtain on a routine basis. It has good accuracy unlike antibody testing which generally runs at ~20% false negative with some commonly used tests. So accepting countries are correct in wanting a negative test and 2 week quarantine. Add in risks of airline travel and limited flight availability and you have a nasty situation.
We continue to fonder around due to lack of a federal response with forced public health mandates (forced social distancing, masks, etc.) and absence of expanded testing, contact tracing and enforced quarantine. So one can expect the current rates per million to not fall in the foreseeable future. Lastly should a vaccine become available its expected to be 70-75% effective so with a third of the US population already saying they will not vaccinate there’s no expectation of herd immunity. Other governments can be expected to simply accept the financial loses associated with no US tourists and forgo the risks/complications/expense of allowing their entry.

I’m very downhearted . Please cheer me up. Where am I wrong in this analysis?


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Your less than 6 months into an event. Right now this seems the end-all-be-all. History will write this as a blip when put into the perspective of a decade or a generation. The pandemic of 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US. Pandemic of 1958 killled 116,000 in the US. Spanish Flu (1918) killed 675,000 in the US. Traveled continued after all of those events.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

It's true that we've seen similar pandemic events in the 20th century (and many before that). So what's different about Covid-19? Some say nothing. But there are a few factors that come to mind that might mean this a different, and new, situation.

#1. Travel. This is the first major pandemic event in the era of cheap and accessible international travel. Viruses don't fly (at least not very far). They travel with us, and we are traveling further and faster than ever in human history. This is true both internationally, and nationally. 

#2. Risk tolerance. I believe we in the developed countries have lowered the risk levels we are willing to accept. Our wealth and power has reduced so many threats, from disease to accidents to security, that we have changed our expectations of safety. This pandemic is an example where our wealth can't easily protect us all, so we're scared -- more scared than we might have been in the past.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Metacognition........

Understand why you know what you think you know and one’s own understanding may become clearer. Many statements of fact that are far from proven fact. No way one can know the effective rate of a vaccine yet, better or worse. We can’t know if the virus will mutate favorably or unfavorably, only what past viruses did. 

I’m more optimistic, but we’re far from out of the woods. I recognize we don’t know what we don’t know. I choose to relax.


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## olson34 (Oct 13, 2000)

The OP's question is like the 'elephant in the room' for all of us that routinely cruise & cross an international border. It was easy to accept the CN closure this year, but next year and beyond do concern us. 
While things will certainly stabilize in 5 or 10 years, that's a long time to wait, for us present day retirees.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

The situation is improving simply because the virus is spreading. The ironic thing is NYC May end up coming out of this first because it has already killed so many of its potential victims. Every day we have more folks who have been exposed and developed or demonstrated some form of immunity.

Having spent the last few months in undeveloped countries Ihave to disagree that the West is more risk adverse. Some of the Caribbean islands took this VERY seriously.,

Maybe too feel that it will fade away in a few years but in the meantime is screwing with my retirement. PITA.

I remain deeply concerned about this virus providing the opportunity for certain operators to grossly invade our privacy and limit our ability to move. Truly a dystopian year for me.


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## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

When President Biden takes office, things will change. Or if by some unlikely miracle the current occupant of the white house is gotten impeached, or contracted the virus, and his assistant, and so forth and a competent replacement installed. Once that happens, our curve will begin to match Europe, and with the arrival of vaccine, this nightmare will fade. 

Until then its the Trump Pandemic Nightmare. Censor this if you will, it is just simply true.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

hpeer said:


> ...I remain deeply concerned about this virus providing the opportunity for certain operators to grossly invade our privacy and limit our ability to move. Truly a dystopian year for me.


This has concerned me from the get-go. With authoritarian tendencies on the rise almost everywhere in the so-called "free world" I fear what lessons those in power are learning.


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## bjkrad (Nov 7, 2006)

Sal Paradise said:


> When President Biden takes office, things will change. Or if by some unlikely miracle the current occupant of the white house is gotten impeached, or contracted the virus, and his assistant, and so forth and a competent replacement installed. Once that happens, our curve will begin to match Europe, and with the arrival of vaccine, this nightmare will fade.
> 
> Until then its the Trump Pandemic Nightmare. Censor this if you will, it is just simply true.


If it's what you say, I love it.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

We're sitting in Carriacou with these same thoughts running through our minds. It seems our charter business is finished, after all, at my age I don't have a lot of years to wait this thing out.
The planned opening of the airport here July 1st has been postponed indefinitely and I must say I am relieved. I wasn't looking forward to an influx of potential virus carriers, especially those Americans who won't wear masks or social distance because it somehow infringes on their civil liberties. Wasn't our country founded on the idea of protecting *all* its citizens from potential harm and injustice?
Then there's the problem of going to Trinidad when it opens and the worry that Grenada will close it's borders in the fall because of a second wave of the virus and we won't be able to return.
I don't care a lot about quarantines, 15 days in Trinidad, 15 days to return to Grenada, but I'd hate to spend the rest of my sailing days in quarantine everywhere I wish to sail.
The Bahamas has opened up for private planes and high end charters I've read, but I'm not sure how it works. Perhaps they fly in on private planes, go directly to the yacht, and aren't allowed ashore anywhere? Does everyone wear masks?
I also think how difficult it must be for those who have stored their boats down here and are unable to get back to them. Some are out of work and storage fees are mounting, yet the prospect of selling a boat no buyer can get to is very low, so they are in a very difficult situation indeed.
If only I han't thrown away that crystal ball !


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

Unfortunately there is growing evidence that hard immunity may not be a achievable. Some studies are showing that antibodies do not linger in the body for more than a few weeks. It is also by no means certain that a effective vaccine will be available anytime soon. Even if there is a vaccine, there seems to be a large and growing anti vax movement in the USA. Once there is a vaccine it would not surprise me if travellers were required to show proof of vaccination before being allowed entry into many countries.

The politicization of the pandemic and measures to control it are not serving the US well, and the world is taking note. The Canada/US border is currently closed to discressionary travel until July 26, and likely much longer. There is very little public appetite for opening the border. Here in BC one of our major industries is tourism, and it is taking a beating, but still most people understand that it is important to keep it shut down.

The government is allowing US travellers across the border if they are transiting directly to Alaska but they are expected to take a direct route and minimize contact with locals. Reports of some of these Alaska travellers playing tourist once they enter the country is causing some to call for even tighter restrictions. I spoke to the operator of an Inn in the Gulf Islands who said he received a phone call from a guy from Texas who wanted to book a room. He was up front about exploiting a "loophole" by saying he was going to alaska, but making a few stops along the way! There are also reports of US flagged pleasure boats sneaking across the border to go cruising. Unfortunately this has caused people to look upon ALL US flagged boats with suspicion and even hostility. Patrols by CBSA and Coast Guard have been stepped up, and reporting lines set up. People are angry because we have followed the guidelines and restricted our travel to other communities, and it has worked. The Idea that all the hard won progress could be put at risk by a few foreign travellers is galling to us!

We look forward to the time when out tourism industry can get back on it's feet, but in the meantime we have earned our way into phase 3 reopening and we are now free to cautiously travel within our own province. Personally I am looking forward to exploring Desolation Sound without the hordes of American boats that descend upon the region every summer!



Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Thank you for your responses but unfortunately they don’t cheer me up. In fact dig the hole deeper. Hopefully politely will correct what I think are seriously misstatements in above posts.
NY numbers improved NOT because it killed high risk victims. It killed a small percentage of total population so there remain plenty of potential victims in NY even now. I am currently in Massachusetts. It was fourth for quite awhile and now has even better numbers than NY. Both states had an initial poor reactions. More so for NYC than NYS than MA. However the culture in these states and Conn is such that public health instructions were followed and continue to be followed. This was and currently is not true for much of the country. I believe that will remain true regardless of Biden v Trump outcome. The arrogance and ignorance of my fellow citizens is appalling. That being the case mandatory policies are required as well as mandatory contact tracing/quarantine. This has occurred in the past( think Typhoid Mary sitting on a island in the east river) but unlikely at present.
A vaccine may mitigate impact but for reasons I pointed out in the OP is not going to be the solution without appropriate public policy.
Agree much remains unknown and it’s encouraging that the antigenicity of the spike material seems to be preserved in the face of strain mutations but the past predicts the future. There are no 100% effective vaccines for any of the viruses in the covid family. In fact none for those causing prior epidemics. Those were controlled by public health policy.
So I’m left with a boat on the hard in the hurricane zone I can’t get to. I agree this to will pass but not anytime soon. Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

The solution will be how to keep people from dying, not from contracting the disease at all. An effective vaccine would presumably do both, but does not need to. If it's effective enough to lower the death rate, we're done. To date, around 5% of known cases have perished in the US. What's the multiplier to get to actual cases, not just tested cases? The death rate is fairly low, nevertheless, tragic. It will not need to get to zero for all to open up.

It pains me to see this issue politicized, but so many just can't help themselves. It's solely about creating a point of view that puts one's own team or keeps one's own team in power. Sick really. Govt failed. All levels, all parties. They were all rank amateurs and this was clearly predicted to happen one day. No faith in any of them, but I do think the system learned a lesson.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

outbound said:


> Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.


From your previous posts I gather you have a wonderful spouse, a beautiful home in a lovely location, and you appear to be financially quite comfortable. Based on your demeanour here I assume you have a number of quality _real_ friends (not just the virtual type), and have many other interests and activities in your life.

You, my virtual friend, have every reason to remain cheery.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

outbound said:


> Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.


I agree with all your points, except I am more optimistic that a new administration will be more effective (though your concerns are duly noted). So I cannot cheer you up.

Au contraire, mon ami: I think the title of your posting is too narrow: It should be changed from

"Is international sailing for US citizens a thing of the past" 
to 
"Is international TRAVEL for US citizens a thing of the past"

For 28 out of the last 30 years we have gone to Europe for Xmas/New Year's. I am pretty sure that this will not happen this year. We Americans will be treated like pariahs in the whole world and not let in anywhere, except by the poorest countries that are desperate enough for our $s to take the risk of infection over the risk of becoming even more destitute.

And I cannot blame them for it.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

My sense is we are perhaps still in the middle of the spread of this virus... and spread is at least partially due to not taking the measures to prevent spread which we know.... PPE no close contact. Contact is at the heart of commerce and leisure.

So perhaps if there was a very reliable instant test people who were free of the virus (in the stage which is contagious) than we CAN have contact. If I am negative and a bunch of my friends are also negative... why can't we have normal activities? The danger is contracting C19 from a carrier. So we need to find every carrier and isolate THEM... and treat them.

We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.

Too much mystery about how this virus works. Sure everyone understands that virus can become air born when expelled by coughing breathing and spitting,

Realistically the US has 300 million people and 125,000 have died. That means that 299+ million are virus free and a few 10s of thousands are ill with the disease or asymptomatic carriers. This reminds me of auto death stats... except there is less we can do to safe healthy and get better when we catch the bug. And it appears that being healthy is a good way to not be a victim.

I feel bad for my grand children... and their grand mother as well. But not being able to travel is draconian and absurd. Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

SanderO said:


> We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.


I think one thing most people forget about wearing a mask is that it keeps those who wear it from touching their face.
Many (most?) of us have unconscious habits and many of them are hand to face. So a hand that just touched a hand rail, door knob or other frequently handled and potential virus path can transmit the virus to our faces, eyes, nose, mouth or whatever.
Wearing a mask protects everyone and I can't see any intelligent argument against it. What happened to Americans banding together for the good of all, as we did in WWII? Would those same people who protest against wearing masks today have protested against rationing as was necessary in WWII? 
I just don't get it.


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## denverd0n (Jun 20, 2008)

outbound said:


> ...should a vaccine become available its expected to be 70-75% effective...


Where do you get this number? The flu vaccine that people typically get each fall is only about 50%-60% effective, low enough that some people debate whether it should be called a "vaccine." I wouldn't expect a COVID-19 vaccine to be any better than that, but we won't know until one is developed (IF one is developed, which is a very big "if").

In any case, even a 50% effective vaccine gets it down to where we don't have to close down the entire world anymore. Especially since, as it spreads, it is likely that many people will develop natural resistance to it -- as humans have to most diseases over the millenia.



Minnewaska said:


> It pains me to see this issue politicized, but so many just can't help themselves... Sick really.


I agree. Sick and stupid to try to turn this into a political issue. As you say, though, many just can't help themselves. You really have to kind of feel sorry for people like that.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

SanderO said:


> We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.


I know you get this, but to point out the obvious, the thing about mask wearing is, as you say, to protect others. Non-medical grade masks do almost nothing to protect the wearer from getting the virus, but they are reasonably effective at halting airboard transmission. So wearing a mask is similar to physical distancing; it puts a barrier in place that reduces the odds of transmission.

If everyone wore a mask it would reduce transmission significantly, much like if everyone maintained a 2 metre physical distance.



SanderO said:


> Realistically the US has 300 million people and 125,000 have died. That means that 299+ million are virus free and a few 10s of thousands are ill with the disease or asymptomatic carriers. This reminds me of auto death stats... except there is less we can do to safe healthy and get better when we catch the bug. And it appears that being healthy is a good way to not be a victim.


Actually, the USA has 2.6 million confirmed cases of Covid-19. Mortality is 126,000, but so far only about 4.5% of cases result in mortality. So this puts your calculation at 297.4 million as virus free. Of course, we don't know the actual infection rate. Many experts are applying a factor of 10x, so the actual infection numbers maybe as high as 26 million.



SanderO said:


> I feel bad for my grand children... and their grand mother as well. But not being able to travel is draconian and absurd. Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.


I wouldn't call it absurd, but it is drastic. This virus spreads because it hitches a ride on us. And the problem is that many people go unsymptomatic, but still carry and presumably spread the disease. Until we have an effective vaccine and/or achieve a reasonable level of herd immunity, neither of which are guaranteed, we will have to find ways to live with this virus.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

SanderO said:


> Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.


They are some countries issuing a sort of 'clean bill of health' document and before they could be issued in any quantity, fake ones were being sold at a faster rate than the governments could issue real ones. I have no doubt that would happen in the US as well, so I don't see that as a viable solution. But I have none better.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

denverd0n said:


> Where do you get this number? The flu vaccine that people typically get each fall is only about 50%-60% effective, low enough that some people debate whether it should be called a "vaccine." I wouldn't expect a COVID-19 vaccine to be any better than that, but we won't know until one is developed.....


We don't know, but I think comparing the effectiveness of a regular flu vaccine, which requires guessing on strain a year in advance is not the same as targeting a specific current coronavirus. That said, this virus could mutate, like they all do, and move away from the vaccine's effective range. It seems Dr. Fauci is "cautiously optimistic". Good enough for me.

A study was done on the regular Flu vaccine, which varies in it's effectiveness from year to year (because of the strain guessing). It found that it had a meaningful reduction in Flu severity, even when didn't prevent the Flu. Specifically, if you caught the Flu anway, after being vaccinated, you have a 37% lower risk of being hospitalized and an 82% lower risk of being in the ICU (ventilator). If 82% fewer people go to the ICU, that means and even greater percent survive. Get that much done on Covid-19 and life moves on, even though many might still get temporarily sick.






Study Shows Flu Vaccine Reduces Risk of Severe Illness | CDC


Everything you need to know about the flu illness, including symptoms, treatment and prevention.




www.cdc.gov





We only need to keep people from dying and over running the hospitals, we do not need to prevent everyone from getting sick. The later is impossible.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Recent literature suggests breathing and talking are the major modes of transmission not objects nor even coughing or sneezing. Of course coughing sneezing, intubation and other medical procedures place a much greater viral load in the air but everyone is constantly breathing but not constantly doing the other activities. 
My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.
Our death rate per million is currently 4th highest in the world and we’re rising in spite of all the money spent here.
People focus on mortality but morbidity is equally important. The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment. Survivors of the 1918 pandemic years later continued to have serious problems. Profound lethargy, a ParkinsonIan illness and cognitive impairment . I worked at the Boston VA during training. In that setting given many of the victims were in the military I studied and cared for some of that cohort. The illness is called encephalitis lethargica. Given virus has been isolated from covid brain and CSF I’m concerned something similar will occur again. Encephalitis lethargica struck young otherwise healthy people who survived the 1918 flu.

Public health measures will control this illness. American culture is uniquely poorly suited to respond appropriately. Another legacy of western expansion and rugged individualism . God bless John Wayne.

Mike I picked up the IPad while having a cup of tea. I just came in from fly fishing in my backyard. My backyard is a town park they dump 15000 trout in every year. I caught a brown bigger then my net on a fly I just tied this morning with a rod I inherited from my dad. I’m just whining. Have too many friends dealing with much greater issues than my trivial concerns. You’re a good soul to remind me of that. Still, although I’m very proud to be an American sometimes I’m just fed up with what’s going on here now.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

In the OP pointed out there’s many foci with covid 19 that are “preserved”. All prospective vaccines are aimed at those sites. To date there’s no evidence those sites mutate.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

As pointed out in the OP unless you’re testing for virus in very close proximity to departure and there’s been no exposure during transport testing alone is not a “clean bill of health”. Hence crispr testing plus immediate strict quarantine is required.
Given people are very highly infectious transmitters up to 2 days before first symptom a normal temperature is meaningless as a sole indication of whether that individual is a vector.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

capta said:


> They are some countries issuing a sort of 'clean bill of health' document and before they could be issued in any quantity, fake ones were being sold at a faster rate than the governments could issue real ones. I have no doubt that would happen in the US as well, so I don't see that as a viable solution. But I have none better.


A Clean Bill VISA issued by gov stamped in passport.... anything can be forged I suppose.


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## scm2 (Aug 15, 2011)

These same sorts of discussions are extremely active in the commercial airline world among international airports, airlines, gov't agencies, and trade associations. The challenge with the "clean bill of health" stamp is that it becomes obsolete essentially as soon as you walk out of the doctor's office or State Dept. consulate and encounter any other individual. Some airlines (e.g., Etihad) were giving blood tests at the airport for flights into certain destinations. So basically, those stamps have a half life of 30 seconds.... Where you see staff taking passengers (or anyone's) temperatures, those tests fail to capture asymptomatic individuals. 

Some US carriers (most recently American) began asking passengers to submit questionnaires and declarations about their state of health. Who among us believes that all of those forms will be truthful and accurate?

For travel the rest of this year, the EU just put the US on the same "Do Not Travel Here" list with Brazil and Russia. That's a sad state of affairs.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

scm2 said:


> For travel the rest of this year, the EU just put the US on the same "Do Not Travel Here" list with Brazil and Russia. That's a sad state of affairs.


But certainly well deserved.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

outbound said:


> Recent literature suggests breathing and talking are the major modes of transmission not objects nor even coughing or sneezing. Of course coughing sneezing, intubation and other medical procedures place a much greater viral load in the air but everyone is constantly breathing but not constantly doing the other activities.
> My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.
> Our death rate per million is currently 4th highest in the world and we're rising in spite of all the money spent here.
> People focus on mortality but morbidity is equally important. The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment. Survivors of the 1918 pandemic years later continued to have serious problems. Profound lethargy, a ParkinsonIan illness and cognitive impairment . I worked at the Boston VA during training. In that setting given many of the victims were in the military I studied and cared for some of that cohort. The illness is called encephalitis lethargica. Given virus has been isolated from covid brain and CSF I'm concerned something similar will occur again. Encephalitis lethargica struck young otherwise healthy people who survived the 1918 flu.
> ...


I understand how you feel. I have ultimate hope that we will eventually pull out of this if/ when national and rational leadership changes. The EU does not swallow nor accept the bs that is spun out of the White House and therefore are walling us off , by isolating us for their own protection.

American look for easy fixes.....that is not going to possible in this case.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

outbound said:


> Encephalitis lethargica struck young otherwise healthy people who survived the 1918 flu.


Awakenings - Wikipedia


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

outbound said:


> My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.


I was about to offer the same. Fauci is guesstimating a 70-75% effectiveness. He also said this will be too low given the vaccine hesitancy level in the US population. He's too kind. I'd call it anti-vaccine idiots.



outbound said:


> ...The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment.


It's morbidly fascinating, isn't it. This virus seems to lead to far more than a simple respiratory infection for some patients. A small percentage of very young children are reported having serious inflamatory reactions, and encephalitis of various forms is cropping up, producing lasting neurological impacts. This is definitely not just a nasty flu.



outbound said:


> Mike I picked up the IPad while having a cup of tea. I just came in from fly fishing in my backyard. My backyard is a town park they dump 15000 trout in every year. I caught a brown bigger then my net on a fly I just tied this morning with a rod I inherited from my dad. I'm just whining. Have too many friends dealing with much greater issues than my trivial concerns. You're a good soul to remind me of that. Still, although I'm very proud to be an American sometimes I'm just fed up with what's going on here now.




No doubt, we're all feeling a bit whinny. Me included. But this too shall pass. I'm trying to see the silver lining in it all. I've got a small motorcycle that I'm going to try and get road worthy. If this works I'm going to become a land cruiser for a few months, visiting friends and family across this vast country of mine.

Most of us here have many good options, and for that I feel blessed (which is saying something as a professed atheist ).


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## Interlude (Jun 16, 2016)

To all,

Other than a discussion of which anchor is best, there will not be a more heated discussion than this topic. We have our opinions and our concerns but must be concerned mostly with living life and not being infected with fear. We are not stupid and actually during severe flu years have always avoided crowds, washed hands regularly and stayed away from sick people. There is so much misinformation and fear mongering going on it is difficult to make good risk assessment. I have included a link to THE ONLY site we trust for information to determine best protocols. The Swiss have always been known for their balanced approach to many things. Try not to dismiss it and please spend some time with the data and statements presented. It certainly will help the OP feel better! If you find it useful please pass it on and keep it where it can be found easily on this thread. We all could use some well founded information so we can then form our own plans instead of being told what our plans are.

_








Swiss Policy Research


Geopolitics and Media




swprs.org





....meanwhile we at least can explore the 11,000 miles of shoreline we call home waters and _still never be more than a two days sail form our slip. We are very grateful and also mindful.

respectfully,
Interlude


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Interlude. I’ve only posted factual information. I’m trained as a board certified neuro epidemiologist. I do not fear monger. I state facts and clearly point out my opinions as a separate entity. Thank you for your referencing that site. There is a core group of posters here who are international cruisers. There’s also a group who enjoy international chartering. Either from being thousands of miles away from our boats or being unable to fly to a foreign charter fleet your suggestion isn’t applicable. Sad but true.
Social sites such as this do help providing some degree of emotional support. So far this thread has not devolved into the muck but has been helpful to me and I sincerely hope others as well. I hope the moderators allow it to continue as long as it continues to offer that very needed support.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

Re the stats related to this pandemic.
What are the ages of the people who die attributed to C19? Much is made that C19 can be fatal to people with "underlying" medical conditions. It seems that people with serious medical conditions have a high risk of dying as their body is already in a compromised condition. So what IS the cause of their death?
I am curious about the age and health related stats for those reported as dying from C19.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

This is a extremely difficult issue to pin down with accuracy at this point in time. Crude numbers are available from multiple sources with a simple google search. However, it’s understood they are crude estimates. To elucidate will refer to a a paper I published on death certification of stroke as cause of death in the Framingham heart study cohort. There’s several issues
person dies of pneumonia because they can’t swallow due to prior stroke. Did they die of stroke or pneumonia? Covid person dies from myocardial infarction because they can’t oxygenate. Did they die of M.I. or covid. Person with COPD survives Covid and is discharged. Dies two days afterward secondary to their debilitated state. What killed them? 
person never had CT or MRI and dies at home or in ER. Covid person dies at home or ED and is never tested nor autopsied. What killed them?
person is misdiagnosed.
death certificate doesn’t reflect clinical record.
theres no clinical record or it’s lost.
sample used to abstract statistics is confounded by bias or is inadequate in truly representative numbers.

So there’s a host of confounders that requires very time consuming, detailed review by a reviewer educated in the disease, stastical principles and epidemiological knowledge. At present although data is being collected and published I’m fairly sure over time it will be reviewed and more accurate assessment generated.

Some known current confounders
Death rate is higher in males. But being male May not be the cause. Rather males are less healthy with more co morbidities than females. Correlation is not causation.
Deaths occur from cytokine storm. Cytokine storm more likely as person has aged. So storm is associated with age and death. However, co morbidities increase with age as well. Which is the correct attributed risk factor for death? How do you assign relative contributions to death? Multifactorial analysis requires sophistication and prior knowledge of all risk factors as well as a large cohort to be analyzed.
At present published data should be viewed as established correlations but its still to soon to view as truly established causative factors with known pathogenesis.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

SanderO said:


> Re the stats related to this pandemic.
> What are the ages of the people who die attributed to C19? Much is made that C19 can be fatal to people with "underlying" medical conditions. It seems that people with serious medical conditions have a high risk of dying as their body is already in a compromised condition. So what IS the cause of their death?
> I am curious about the age and health related stats for those reported as dying from C19.


There is significant data available in NY on this, right down to the county level. Hypertension is the number one, followed by diabetes. COVID is a syndrome that causes systemic inflammation, not just Flu like symptoms. I think it's abundantly clear that COVID killed these people, but they were fatally susceptible, due to the co-morbidity. 40% of fatalities were over the age of 80, 66% over age 70 and 85% over age 60, where having one of these co-morbidities is also more likely.

Notable that high cholesterol is the third highest co-morbidity.









COVID-19 Testing Tracker


Statewide tests and positive cases




covid19tracker.health.ny.gov


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## Interlude (Jun 16, 2016)

outbound said:


> Interlude. I've only posted factual information. I'm trained as a board certified neuro epidemiologist. I do not fear monger. I state facts and clearly point out my opinions as a separate entity. Thank you for your referencing that site. There is a core group of posters here who are international cruisers. There's also a group who enjoy international chartering. Either from being thousands of miles away from our boats or being unable to fly to a foreign charter fleet your suggestion isn't applicable. Sad but true.
> Social sites such as this do help providing some degree of emotional support. So far this thread has not devolved into the muck but has been helpful to me and I sincerely hope others as well. I hope the moderators allow it to continue as long as it continues to offer that very needed support.


Hey Outbound,
I am not referring to this forum as fear mongering, but rather the typical media outlets, nor was I inferring your information was incorrect, actually the contrary. The site i referenced, if you have spent time with it, you will find is very fact based with all statements fully referenced with the ability to not only know what research has been done but actually read the research., It was a refreshing change from most information and was given so many here could have much data in a single location.

I only mentioned our cruising close to home as it is the only option out there at present for us and even then some state's borders had been closed to cruisers until recently. We remain very mindful of the small coastal communities that line those coasts and their relative inability to deal with any major health issues but also their dependance upon the boating community. We have been very grateful for this site's support and the information freely shared and hope most will find the link we provided informative. We have always sought to understand rather than being told how to understand. It's why we don't watch TV!

Now how about what anchor is best!


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Interlude, I looked at the link to the _Swiss *Propaganda* Research_, or as it was renamed in May 2020, the _Swiss Policy Research_, and read through their "facts about covid-19". Knowing nothing about them I read with interest, but as I moved through their long list of "facts" I grew increasingly wary. Something didn't seem right. Many of their "facts" are opinion, and a lot of the "facts" are supported by one cherry-picked study.

So then I went looking for background on this organization. Very quickly I found lots of criticism of this site, with many labelling it as a perveyor of conspiracy theory and pseudo-science.

Based on my quick research I would not list this as a trusted source.


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## denverd0n (Jun 20, 2008)

Minnewaska said:


> We only need to keep people from dying and over running the hospitals, we do not need to prevent everyone from getting sick. The later is impossible.


I agree completely. I work for the college of medicine of one of Florida's state universities. I am not a professor, nor a doctor. I just work in IT. But being on the staff means that I am on all of the e-mail lists, and get reports pretty much daily about what is going on. In particular, we get information from the hospitals that are associated with the university, concerning their capacity to handle more cases.

At this point, even after the easing of restrictions and the expected increase in cases, they are nowhere near being over-run. They are, in fact, only slightly more busy than average for this time of year. I understand that it is a bit worse in the Miami area, but still nowhere near over-run. That's the good news. At least in Florida, if you get sick, there are hospital beds and ventilators aplenty for your treatment.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

There is so much "info" to sort thru... and when you have no expertise... it's often a matter TRUST BUT VERIFY.

I think there is BS coming from both sides of this issue.

But MY take away is that healthy people's risk is fairly low. Seniors typically have chronic conditions which raises their risk. I happen to be a senior but I have no chronic "underlying" conditions. I am healthy and my 
"numbers" are normal. My senior issues are related to arthritis, diminishing vision, hearing, balance, old dentisty and balance. It didn't help that I had spine surgery which has damaged my sciatic nerve.... but it is (too) slowly recovering. My nerve might recover before I pass. ;-)


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Some months ago posted the critical balance is between having a functional society and economy and preserving life. With further evolution of the syndrome associated with covid would add persistent morbidity from the illness to that equation. Unfortunately many the young adults and others with no known risk factors assume they may get sick but it won’t be a significant illness. Now we know even young children may become critically ill. What is unknown is the incidence of persistent neurologic damage from the illness. I wouldn’t be so sanguine S. Trust but verify is always wise. Understanding the sub divisions of risk is also wise to include in your thinking. Such as the concept of relative risk as being different from absolute risk. I have risk factors but live in a low risk state, very low risk town and follow ID guidelines. So my risk of death if I get covid is higher than average but my risk of getting covid is lower than average. 
The current continuation of the first wave has a higher proportion of the 30-50 y.o. segment. Be interesting to see outcome numbers.


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## olson34 (Oct 13, 2000)

One thought about travel... modern times brings modern speed of travel and disease movement. Like jet plane- speed.
(sigh)
Back in the age of sail, your could travel to another country/port and fly your yellow flag and the health inspector would row out and somehow certify if you were permitted to come ashore. They had little in the way of cure, but the threat moved at 6 kts rather than 300 kts. (give or take).

Fast moving disease has been a threat since travel became both fast and cheap. Lots of novels have been written, and some of the ones that were labeled 'science fiction' now seem eerily prescient.

I hate this "new normal" but appreciate the irony that we are commenting on the internet about restrictions on our yachting activities! 
--Apoligies to those living aboard whose home has presently been restricted in movement. 

We have some friends presently quarantined on their cruising boat in NZ. At least they are in a nice location to be stuck for a while.

Take care of yourselves, and in November vote like your life depends on it.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

i am still stuck on the death rate stated by original poster being greater then population of usa.. where the hell did the alleged number originate--it is so grossly inaccurate as to be hilarious. usa only has a population of 382 million. wake up folks you are being lied to by someone posing as intelligent. 
as for travel after shutdown... who knows.. no one is allowed to get passport unless for emergency....northern and southern borders are shut... 
i hope you all have read the globalist agendas--21 and 2030... most interesting...
but DO get the population of usa and death rate corrected as the mentioned numbers are absurd. the truer numbers are found in google search if your history classes failed.
as for vaccine and all hopes on them for cure--fuggeddaboudid... see spanish flu., influenza a and the rest...how the hell is a flu virus going to be killed with introduction of said live virus into others--the original form is only mode of virus protected from, as per all other vaccines and this offers more toxins and dna altering issues and a TRACKING CHIP wow.... no thanks. i prefer antiviral medications which prevent replication of viruses. 
enjoy your delusions and donot allow reality to kill your buzz.


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## contrarian (Sep 14, 2011)

If only we could vote for "None of the Above"


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Z please actually read the post. What part of 385 per million do you not understand? 385/million.
even a partially effective vaccine will help drive the R to 1. The R is the number of people a single infected person infects. If a infected person infects another two people the R is 2. If the R is 1 in conjunction with public health measures the incidence and prevalence will decrease to the point the illness is no longer a menace.
since Jenner more than a century ago we have used live virus and more recently attenuated virus to eliminate prior global illnesses. Don’t see much smallpox now.
getting people vaccinated is key. Think of the pseudo science associated with autism spectrum risk and the recent outbreaks of measles in NYC after measles had been controlled for decades.
please read posts.
please understand facts stand alone regardless of the intelligence or lack there of of the individual stating them.
i won’t comment on what I view as the delusional closing to your post.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Interlude said:


> The Swiss have always been known for their balanced approach to many things.


There are good reasons to believe that there is nothing Swiss about this conspiracy-laden website
Swiss Propaganda Research - Wikipedia


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Any one have experience with Peters and Grey? They now will pick up in St.lucia to my knowledge. Thinking of just shipping the boat home if it’s affordable and doable. But reluctant to do so if they’re going to hurt my baby..
having her to sail wouldn’t definitely cheer me up.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Peters and May? No personal experience, but I've known many to ship their boats across the Atlantic and to the Caribbean (various carriers). I've not heard of any horror stories to date. Coordinating each end of the passage can be tricky, but money solves most of it.

Given your situation and concerns, I think this is an excellent idea.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

As an aside there’s a very informative literature about the psychopathology of conspiracists and cult members. Also informs why it seems so much more prevalent in recent years. Worth a look.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

zeehag said:


> i am still stuck on the death rate stated by original poster being greater then population of usa.. where the hell did the alleged number originate--it is so grossly inaccurate as to be hilarious. usa only has a population of 382 million. wake up folks you are being lied to by someone *posing as intelligent.*


Actually, that was the death rate per million then, which is up to 395 *per million *today.
So what's really hilarious is your rant, not the correct information being imparted by the OP.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

outbound said:


> As an aside there's a very informative literature about the psychopathology of conspiracists and cult members. Also informs why it seems so much more prevalent in recent years. Worth a look.


internet is fertile ground for the spread of conspiracies... and all ideas.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

outbound said:


> Any one have experience with Peters and Grey? They now will pick up in St.lucia to my knowledge. Thinking of just shipping the boat home if it's affordable and doable. But reluctant to do so if they're going to hurt my baby..
> having her to sail wouldn't definitely cheer me up.


I have seen yacht transport ships unloading in St. T. so it might be possible to get her shipped from there if St. L. isn't possible.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

Currently I think cruise "planning" is a waste of time until we understand what we can plan for


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## Interlude (Jun 16, 2016)

MikeOReilly said:


> Interlude, I looked at the link to the _Swiss *Propaganda* Research_, or as it was renamed in May 2020, the _Swiss Policy Research_, and read through their "facts about covid-19". Knowing nothing about them I read with interest, but as I moved through their long list of "facts" I grew increasingly wary. Something didn't seem right. Many of their "facts" are opinion, and a lot of the "facts" are supported by one cherry-picked study.
> 
> So then I went looking for background on this organization. Very quickly I found lots of criticism of this site, with many labelling it as a perveyor of conspiracy theory and pseudo-science.
> 
> Based on my quick research I would not list this as a trusted source.


Thought much the same when first viewing it. Just ran contrary to what we had been told. Agree that the studies were less than complete but at least i could read them and not just have them cited. Conspiracy is not just attributable to any group that is not the "authorities". Unfortunately in our country we have much that is conspiring against the truth and then labels the opposition "conspiracy ' theory. I found their statements from two to three months ago more accurate than our CDC or the WHO. That may change but it has been my observation to date. A single example as to why we struggle to accept the mainstream view is that George Floyd's death is counted in the Covid numbers now since he tested positive, though also classified as a homicide. The hospital gets $15,000 extra for every Covid patient. Heck they get another extra $30,000 if someone is put on a ventilator. I am not sure why or how his is useful but it is practice. We are struggling with who to believe.

I mostly still wanna debate which anchor is best, no actually want mostly just go somewhere and anchor! Know you must feel the same. Meanwhile hope that motorcycle trip happens for ya.

peace


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Interlude said:


> Thought much the same when first viewing it. Just ran contrary to what we had been told. Agree that the studies were less than complete but at least i could read them and not just have them cited.


That is a valid point of view. Which are the studies you would like to read, rather than just having them cited?


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

There”s multiple sources for the articles. Unfortunately they’re paid services such as MedLine,uptodate, scientific American medicine, pubmed and the like. Please realize physicians pay for subscriptions to get the journals in which these articles are initially published. Those subscription fees keep the journal publisher in business. Most practitioners subscribe to multiple journals as well to collating services. None of this is free public domain. Virtually all new articles detailing new research close with a list of citations relevant to the new work. So with a few exceptions a search will get you the title and the introduction blurb but not the body of the article. You need to pay for that.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Interlude said:


> ...A single example as to why we struggle to accept the mainstream view is that George Floyd's death is counted in the Covid numbers now since he tested positive, though also classified as a homicide. The hospital gets $15,000 extra for every Covid patient. Heck they get another extra $30,000 if someone is put on a ventilator. I am not sure why or how his is useful but it is practice. We are struggling with who to believe.


And you know this how? Isn't personal medical information private? How would anyone outside of the immediate medical group know what this person's death was classified as? And since the cops have been charged with murder, doesn't that indicate the death would have to have been classified as related to the police action?

It's very true that we are awash in "fake news" these days. This is why I spent some time checking the background of the source you cited. It is clear it is not a credible source.

Having the actual source material is definitely useful. As OB says, some are innaccessible without a subscription, but many are not. And even those behind the paywall usually provide the abstract for free. Membership to any large urban library also gives you access to a lot of these journals.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Outbound,

I think you and I are talking past one another in the bit of my post you rebutted. It's OK, conveying accurate opinions in these short format writings is difficult. I get your point, but still believe mine has merit.

Moving on I want your opinion on something. If you go to Worldometers and Look at their tabular information you can sort it both by column (death/million) and region (Europe, Asia, etc.) If you do this you will see that the epicenter is in the EU with death rates of around 350/million while deep Asia, sorting out the Near Eastern states, has a D/M rate of roughly 15/M. That is a huge difference.

There is NO european country approaching the Asian numbers, and NO asian country approaching the EU numbers. The intermediate countries like Iran and Iraq have intermediate numbers.

I'm not th s first to notice this trend and I've read 3 articles on it, all of which offer various possible explanations which they then immediately refute. BBC was one such source, can't recall the others off hand.

My request is that you do please look at those numbers from worldometers
Coronavirus Update (Live): 10,836,298 Cases and 519,605 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer for a bit, sort them along the lines I did and then please give me your thoughts.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

IMHO the future of international travel depends more upon the posture of the local governments than the virus itself. Local governments have put the people through a lot, suffered great loss of income to “defeat” the virus. But th eh have not defeated it, they have simply stopped time. When they reopen, as they must, the virus will return. And when it does they will have to face it. How they then react to this renewed attack is really the question. 

I don not expect a unified Eastern Caribbean response. Nor do I expect a unified and predictable response. Which means, if I’m correct, cruising in that region will mean dealing with a constantly evolving situation of lockdowns, quarantines, border closings, cancelled flights, etc. 

While I deeply hope I am wrong I’m am not hopeful about returning in November/December. My guess is we will spend the winter in the Carolinas.

FYI we were in Dominica for lockdown. Cancelled our plans to haul in Grenada, and sailed back to Beaufort, NC. Which turned out to be 8 days of wonderful downwind, 2 days of motoring across the doldrums and 2 days of motor sailing through squall lines. Folks are now paying $2,000/seat to go from Grenada to Barbados so they can get a flight home. Trinidad is still not accepting boats, unless that has changed in the last 2 days.


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Hpeer I agree with you. We're seeing a snap shot of that here in Key West. 

Key West is unique for the US due to only having one road in. They were able to isolate for a period. They were able to keep infections to a minimum and up to today only suffer 4 deaths in the whole county. As of last Friday 167 businesses were the cost of that (closed for good). 

When they reopened (on a limited basis) and let in people from outside the county there was an increase in infections. No new deaths and only 3 people in the county hospitals. But the upcry from the locals (retirees/fixed income and trust funders) has been very loud. Local city government is listening to the complaints on social media (they try to answer facebook questions on their weekly video update from the Mayor). Rules and regulations have been random. You can go to some places and sit at the bar because they also have a dining room, but can't go to a place that doesn't have a bar. You can go to Mallory Square and watch the sunset but not fireworks on Saturday (are fireworks safe on other days?). New "adjustments" to the rules happen on a daily basis, visitors and business owners can't make any long term decisions, everyone is just trying to survive day-to-day. Like I told a neighbor in the business park I work in, we have enough business to stay alive, not enough to retire.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Interlude said:


> The hospital gets $15,000 extra for every Covid patient. Heck they get another extra $30,000 if someone is put on a ventilator. peace


In fact hospitals are only receiving 20% more for C-19 patients on Medicare than they would for any other respiratory illness, so that whole $15,000.00 thing is just typical rumor mongering. I was unable to verify the information on respirators, however it seems logical that the same sort of system exists. There has been no evidence that there is widespread over reporting of C-19 by hospitals to fraudulently receive more funds as far as my research has shown.
Since so many C-19 illnesses and deaths go unreported I can't see that any over reporting from hospitals could inflate the actual numbers. I have no doubt that the fact is that the actual numbers world wide (think Russia, Brazil, Asia and Africa) are much higher than reported.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

The thinking in some of the above posts is dead wrong. I use the phrase literally as it will result in avoidable deaths. This crowd is logical so let’s review the logic. What follows is true for any communicable infectious disease.
the index case has infectious disease X. The index case has interactions with 12 people while infectious and able to serve as a vector. But 10 of the exposed people do not receive a sufficient number of infectious units in an appropriate manner to become infected. ( this speaks to how contagious the disease is- some require few units of infectious agent, some require sexual congress, for some introduction into the blood stream, some need contact with mucosa and so on). For covid contact with respiratory tissue or mucosa seems to suffice. This overwhelming occurs not from objects but from close proximity to an infected person as they breathe, talk, sing, cough or sneeze. Sometimes from persistent aerosols usually in an enclosed space where a infectious person or persons where. 
This index case above has an Ro of 2. He infected two people before he either no longer was infectious or died and was buried.
So if you drive the R down to 1 you don’t have a pandemic. Not even an epidemic. The infectious agent may persist but at very low levels in the population. Driving the R down does not require a vaccine. Nor does it require herd immunity. Nor does it require an effective treatment. Recent examples of this occurrence are creutzfield Jacob disease, mad cow disease and the other spongiform encephalopathies. These are all prion diseases. Universally fatal and universally untreatable but under excellent control with only public health measures employed. 
So public health measures isn’t just buying time but rather true disease control.
First you need to identify hot spots and equally important cold areas. This can be done with group testing (testing sewage or appropriate sampling of defined populations or even pooling samples from a group and testing the pooled specimen to conserve testing materials. 
Next you need to isolate your hotspots and equally important protect your cold areas from introduction of the infectious agent.This needs to continue until the population R is near 1 or below. Hot and cold areas will evolve and change locale. 
Then you need to extensively test your hotspots. Both contact testing of known victims of the illness and extensive repetitive sampling of the defined hotspot area. Positives are isolated as long as they are infectious.
Over a relatively short time you will achieve control. The overwhelming majority of US victims were infected by virus that came here from Europe not China. Although Europe isn’t entirely out of the woods they are doing dramatically better then us. Why? Simple. They employed public health measures aggressively earlier and their population was more diligent about following them. 
is it too late for us? No - but we need to put our big boy pants on. Strict public health measures must be followed by all. Red/blue is irrelevant. Rich/poor is irrelevant. Race, religion, creed Is irrelevant. This requires coordination at a national level so needs federal involvement and leadership. Fauci is 80 and just one person. Fortunately their are virologists, infectious disease physicians, epidemiologists and appropriate industry in this country now who could lead and implement the needed measures if allowed to have the resources and if all levels of government, military, legislative and policing agencies were supportive. In short”we have met the enemy and it is us”. 
I remain hopeful. Even a partially effective vaccine will drive the R down. Even in the absence of a vaccine we can drive the R down. Doing both will accelerate the process. Any treatment that decreases viral load should both improve patient outcomes and make victims less infectious. But for now and also in the future even after release of a vaccine or effective treatment public health measures are key. They are not “just buying time”.

The problem with ALL statistics is the potential for error. Both undercounting, overcounting and bias. There are statistics that measure the possibility and degree of error in other statistics. You can generate a statistic that measures how likely the number you reported is a deviation from the actual number. This works just fine when good sampling has occurred and no extraneous bias was applied. We have strong reason to believe that for political reasons many countries are not being honest reporters. Russia, Iran, and Brazil come to mind. Similarly we have reason to believe that even when an attempt at honesty occurs case ascertainment may be inaccurate. Availability of resources, culture, poor sampling protocols, intrinsic bias in testing materials (false positives/negatives), no contact with local healthcare system, poor statistical analysis etc. So I look at what you posted and think. Let’s review this in a year. Then we probably be in a much better position to judge the validity of what you presented. I try to always look at “methods” and the subscripts in judging a study or statistic. Disraeli said”lies, lies, and statistics”. I think that comes from lack of judgment on how the number was generated and what it’s really measuring and what it means.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

capta said:


> I have no doubt that the fact is that the actual numbers world wide (think Russia, Brazil, Asia and Africa) are much higher than reported.


Not only there, also here (in the US and other Western countries). There are lots of studies that compare the number of deaths during COVID-19 with that during equivalent periods, e.g. from the identical weeks from last year. Death rates, independent of officially reported cause, are substantially higher during COVID-19 than during the comparison periods. These can be either COVID-19 cases that were mis-classified as something else, or additional deaths as a result of delaying or not seeking care as the outbreak overwhelmed hospitals.

Here is one example that was published today: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-heart/

In NYC alone there were 4700 excess death ONLY from heart disease, plus many others from other diseases (diabetes, Alzheimer etc).

This is supported by MANY other studies. From the linked article: "in a separate excess deaths analysis, the CDC estimated that since Feb. 1, between about 20,000 and 49,000 more people have died of all non-covid-19 causes than would be expected in a typical year."


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

The missing perspective is that the vast majority will not alter their lives to prevent people from getting the Flu. We never have. You only stand a chance of convincing them to help prevent death. The death rate is getting lower every day, with an unknown asymptomatic denominator making it substantially lower than it even appears, by testing. Most studies are now congregating in the 0.5%-1.0% fatality range, after adjusting for unreported deaths and infections. 

Frankly, the more one exaggerates the issue, the more will reject the proper response. This issue needs to be framed exclusively in how to prevent death, not infection. They are not the same thing and do not require the same counter measures. Treatment or vaccine that prevent (greatly reduce) death and we're done. The trick with social measures is how to move the death rate down, not necessarily the broad infection rate.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

From what I've been reading (just one):
*Nervous system involvement after infection with COVID-19 (Nervous system involvement after infection with COVID-19 and other coronaviruses)*
There may be a lot more consequences for those not in the high risk of death group than previously thought. It may be way too early to use figures like death rates to determine the final cost of this pandemic on a broad range of the population.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Minnewaska said:


> This issue needs to be framed exclusively in how to prevent death, not infection.


No.

As Outbound stated several times, it is not just mortality but also morbidity. We don't know yet what long-term consequences an infection has for survivors but there is good evidence that they can be severe.

EDIT: Just see that @capta beat me to make this point.


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## donahue62 (Jul 13, 2013)

Sal Paradise said:


> When President Biden takes office, things will change. Or if by some unlikely miracle the current occupant of the white house is gotten impeached, or contracted the virus, and his assistant, and so forth and a competent replacement installed. Once that happens, our curve will begin to match Europe, and with the arrival of vaccine, this nightmare will fade.
> 
> Until then its the Trump Pandemic Nightmare. Censor this if you will, it is just simply true.


Waiting for a post like this. Let's just make everything political.


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## Solandri (Sep 7, 2012)

outbound said:


> The overwhelming majority of US victims were infected by virus that came here from Europe not China. Although Europe isn't entirely out of the woods they are doing dramatically better then us. Why? Simple. They employed public health measures aggressively earlier and their population was more diligent about following them.


Agreed with everything you posted. But I think it should be pointed out that roughly half the cases and deaths in the U.S. are in the Northeast (Maryland to Maine) which accounts for only about 1/6 the U.S. population. Outside of there and a few other hotspots (Louisiana, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania), the rest of the U.S. has a death rate nearly as low as Germany, which is one of the EU nations handling this the best.

I can understand banning travelers from the U.S. Since free travel is allowed between states, there's no way to be sure if a visiting American is from Texas (fewer deaths per capita than Germany) or New York (16x the deaths per capita as Germany). But don't make the mistake of projecting the poor handling of the virus in New York and neighboring states onto the rest of the country. Most of the U.S. states are handling this as well as the EU, and several are handling it better.



> The problem with ALL statistics is the potential for error. Both undercounting, overcounting and bias. There are statistics that measure the possibility and degree of error in other statistics. You can generate a statistic that measures how likely the number you reported is a deviation from the actual number. This works just fine when good sampling has occurred and no extraneous bias was applied. We have strong reason to believe that for political reasons many countries are not being honest reporters. Russia, Iran, and Brazil come to mind. Similarly we have reason to believe that even when an attempt at honesty occurs case ascertainment may be inaccurate.


I suspect several EU nations are severely underreporting the number of cases. If you look at the ratio of deaths to cases (i.e. what percent of cases result in death), the U.S. and Germany are around 5%. Spain is about 10%. The UK and Italy are around 15%. And France is at 18%. Either the health care systems in those countries is abysmal (when we're constantly told their socialized medicine is superior to the U.S. system) and letting lots of patients who could survive die. Or they have a deadlier strain of the virus. Or they're vastly underreporting the actual number of cases.


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## Team Liquid Racing (Jul 2, 2020)

My business is recruiting for hospitality superyachts.and professional race (sailing) crews. Hours daily I speak with medical research professionals, hotel chain owners, private jet companies, regatta organizers and economists.

Here's the collective opinion of COVID impact...and they all agree.
The pandemic is here to stay for years, no vaccine will work because COVID keeps morphing. A nightmare.
This week is a good example...as soon as outsiders arrived in Antigua, we went from zero cases to 69 (from America).

It seems the ONLY way to assure safety and to move forward with sailing and racing is to organize for all arrivals to be pre tested BEFORE they travel. Nothing else will work. This is a huge undertaking, to must be coordinated with the airlines and the world health organization, the ports if yachts are sailing entering. Seems implausible but most likely true.

So something radical has to be in place. If arrivals enter our countries and are tested positive, they'll not be able to enjoy anything, they'll be quarantined, so the ONLY solution is preemptive... a pre flight or pre passage test and quarantine until take off.

I for one am gutted.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

The falicy in the above post is for risk ascertainment all that is relevant is the situation now. The Washington Boston corridor has done an excellent job in applying public health measures so at PRESENT the rates are low and continue to fall. One could cogently argue NYC made several missteps initially but fortunately got their act together.
In order to have the US population get onboard with the necessary public health measures federal leadership needs to aggressively inform the public the threat is not controlled nor will it shortly resolve. Public health measures need to be mandated as needed and the public educated as to their need to follow them. As we continue in the first wave irrespective of who holds the presidency this still needs to occur now. This is not a political issue. In the past be it war, depression, terrorism we have rallied around the flag. We need to do that now. I have a libertarian bent. I’m no progressive nor socialist. Still, we need leadership at all levels who honestly assess and propagate the truth be it concerning covid health risks and impact on the economy. That is not currently present much to my disappointment. Wish the Lincoln project was a party.


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## Solandri (Sep 7, 2012)

outbound said:


> The falicy in the above post is for risk ascertainment all that is relevant is the situation now. The Washington Boston corridor has done an excellent job in applying public health measures so at PRESENT the rates are low and continue to fall.


Numbers pulled from here, normalized by state population in a spreadsheet.








United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer


United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




www.worldometers.info







Spoiler: Active cases per million population




New York15047​Rhode Island13539​New Jersey12698​District Of Columbia11857​Arizona10377​Maryland9957​Texas9944​Connecticut8468​Georgia6937​Florida6510​Virginia6259​Delaware4664​South Carolina4554​California4414​Colorado4083​Alabama3476​Louisiana3285​Ohio3136​Utah3125​New Mexico3047​Washington2996​Missouri2794​Mississippi2786​Nebraska2662​Tennessee2538​Kentucky2411​Nevada2239​Illinois2063​North Carolina2055​Arkansas2021​Kansas1823​Iowa1732​Oregon1500​Michigan1439​Pennsylvania1347​Indiana1236​Idaho1180​Massachusetts1168​Wisconsin931​South Dakota920​Oklahoma782​New Hampshire690​Wyoming675​Alaska640​Minnesota630​North Dakota449​Maine391​Montana364​Vermont337​West Virginia324​Hawaii129​



So looking at the current stats changes things a bit, but the northeast corridor is still overrepresented in current cases, with 8 of the top 12 states. This is the number most relevant to a travel ban. i.e. "How likely is someone from a state to have the virus today?"

Sorting it by daily new infections supports what you say. But I've noticed the site's daily stats tend to be spiky. Apparently some areas gather stats for a few days before reporting them all at once. I've been trying to find a site which lets you overlay a graph of daily cases per million population. But they all seem to want to overlay just raw daily cases, which exaggerates the status of high-population states.



Spoiler: New cases in last day, per million population




Texas805.25​Florida470.67​Arizona457.89​South Carolina346.09​Georgia327.02​Louisiana297.48​Mississippi292.34​Arkansas290.92​California236.59​Alabama234.35​Tennessee230.63​Delaware226.90​Iowa224.72​Nevada205.19​North Carolina176.87​Utah172.80​Idaho124.79​New Mexico116.36​Oklahoma107.91​Wisconsin92.58​Minnesota87.59​Oregon86.06​Washington84.31​Maryland83.53​Rhode Island83.10​South Dakota75.71​Nebraska73.42​Ohio71.09​Illinois68.58​Missouri65.99​Pennsylvania65.54​Indiana64.62​Montana62.68​Virginia62.32​Wyoming62.18​Michigan58.98​Colorado56.09​North Dakota55.12​Alaska53.35​New York53.20​Kentucky53.04​New Jersey46.84​West Virginia41.29​District Of Columbia35.41​Massachusetts28.29​Vermont27.24​Maine25.30​Kansas21.28​Connecticut20.76​New Hampshire14.71​Hawaii14.12​


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## JoCoSailor (Dec 7, 2015)

capta said:


> I think one thing most people forget about wearing a mask is that it keeps those who wear it from touching their face.
> Many (most?) of us have unconscious habits and many of them are hand to face. So a hand that just touched a hand rail, door knob or other frequently handled and potential virus path can transmit the virus to our faces, eyes, nose, mouth or whatever.
> Wearing a mask protects everyone and I can't see any intelligent argument against it. What happened to Americans banding together for the good of all, as we did in WWII? Would those same people who protest against wearing masks today have protested against rationing as was necessary in WWII?
> I just don't get it.


I'm for wearing masks. But you have got to kidding me or yourself. If you think it is keeping folks from touching their face. 99% I see are pulling their mask down under their nose. Then back up. Then down their chin, then back up. They touch the mask taking off. They wear the same mask time and time again. They have homemade ones that they can't tell one side from the other. It helps but it would help more if folks had clue about how to put them on and them take off. Curious... not that it can't, but have you read anywhere that confirms a case spread by surface contact?


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## DaveKurtz (Apr 28, 2019)

outbound said:


> I know they are making a big deal about Europe banning travelers from the U.S., but in reality travel has been cut off since mid-March when the U.S. banned all travel from Europe at that time. Most people will not travel there if they cannot return. It will all work out at some point.


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## Team Liquid Racing (Jul 2, 2020)

outbound said:


> The falicy in the above post is for risk ascertainment all that is relevant is the situation now. The Washington Boston corridor has done an excellent job in applying public health measures so at PRESENT the rates are low and continue to fall. One could cogently argue NYC made several missteps initially but fortunately got their act together.
> In order to have the US population get onboard with the necessary public health measures federal leadership needs to aggressively inform the public the threat is not controlled nor will it shortly resolve. Public health measures need to be mandated as needed and the public educated as to their need to follow them. As we continue in the first wave irrespective of who holds the presidency this still needs to occur now. This is not a political issue. In the past be it war, depression, terrorism we have rallied around the flag. We need to do that now. I have a libertarian bent. I'm no progressive nor socialist. Still, we need leadership at all levels who honestly assess and propagate the truth be it concerning covid health risks and impact on the economy. That is not currently present much to my disappointment. Wish the Lincoln project was a party.


I agree, however it's a given this what you are writing is an absolute necessity location by location but there must be a pre-agreed global protocol to assure one is not bringing COVID Positive case into any new destination.


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## Interlude (Jun 16, 2016)

capta said:


> In fact hospitals are only receiving 20% more for C-19 patients on Medicare than they would for any other respiratory illness, so that whole $15,000.00 thing is just typical rumor mongering. I was unable to verify the information on respirators, however it seems logical that the same sort of system exists. There has been no evidence that there is widespread over reporting of C-19 by hospitals to fraudulently receive more funds as far as my research has shown.
> Since so many C-19 illnesses and deaths go unreported I can't see that any over reporting from hospitals could inflate the actual numbers. I have no doubt that the fact is that the actual numbers world wide (think Russia, Brazil, Asia and Africa) are much higher than reported.


This information came from very close friend who is a physician in our area. I hope he was wrong and you are right because I left their home shaking I was so upset to hear what seems to be occurring in some hospitals. Another close friend just quit being a duty nurse as she could not bring herself to continue with situations she faced every day that didn't have to be that way. Both of these friends work in a state of the art hospital in an area with many resources.

I also know some have dismissed the link I provided as 'conspiracy' and not trustworthy but everyone must pick what they choose to believe. I have a tendency to seek understanding not a belief. I in many areas of life will look at what was said previously from multiple sources and then compare them to what actually happened. I then tend to follow those sources that 'called it' more closely. I also am not wed to them and if they become inaccurate over a period of time then I no longer use them. An example that most folks here would identify with is weather reporting. We all have our go to source. Only my barometer is 100% accurate!

I stand corrected about George Floyd's death being counted in the Covid death numbers. He did test positive for Covid. The Hennepin County Medical Examiner's Office determined Floyd died of "cardiopulmonary arrest" - or heart failure - "complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression." The autopsy report states Floyd had fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cannabinoids in his system at the time of his death. None of those substances factored into his death. We will never know if there were any complicating factors from his Covid infection that may have exacerbated the cause of death in the above report. What we do know is that it was a homocide. As a disclosure it is clear that I have not read any medical examiners report first hand and the above statement came from a periodical that obtained the full report, which is public information. Regardless his death was senseless.

Here is what I know for a fact....I appreciate the knowledge freely shared here, don't watch TV, prefer to be outside generally away from civilization, love gardening, playing music, sailing, kayaking and skiing, and this was before Covid! We are getting ready once more when the 4th has come and gone, along with the crowds, to be gone again into no internet, TV, or even cell phone world again, easier now that we have a friend from Hawaii living here with us that knows how to tend the gardens! Cucumbers and squash are getting ready to come in. Numbers that can be verified!


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

capta said:


> From what I've been reading (just one):
> *Nervous system involvement after infection with COVID-19 (Nervous system involvement after infection with COVID-19 and other coronaviruses)*
> There may be a lot more consequences for those not in the high risk of death group than previously thought. It may be way too early to use figures like death rates to determine the final cost of this pandemic on a broad range of the population.


Could become an issue, but policy won't be informed by it yet. This is a fraction of those infected and one long term impact is headaches. I'm not saying this isn't legit, I'm saying the majority won't charge their daily lives, based upon it. They may alter lifestyle to prevent death.

This is all distinct from any individual doing what they choose to avoid exposure. I criticize no one for taking whatever measures they find appropriate for themselves.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

It’s unfortunate that the feds +/or states don’t run a few ads on TV, and social media. Even a YouTube or two would help. Simple stuff. How to wear a mask. How to take it off using the elastics. When to use hand sanitizer. How to wash your hands. 
The feds are empowered by existing law to mandate manufacturing PPE. Current available masks decrease transmission from a vector. N95 if used properly decrease risk. They should be being made here and sold at cost plus small profit in sufficient bulk there’s no issue with access.
In the absence of accessibility our 4 N95 Masks are air dried outside in UV and rotatEd in use. They are reserved for going inside buildings. Our p2.5 masks are also rotated and air dried and used for less mission critical settings. We carry >60% etoh in small spray bottles. We don’t mask when fishing, going for a woodland walk, swim or other very low risk activities. A effective accurate ad program nationwide would do much to drive the R down. I can’t believe that Americans are so self centered they wouldn’t get onboard correct public health policy and actions if presented to them in a non partisan fashion.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

What we seem to NOT be discussing in this thread is that a large percentage of deaths comes from nursing homes. I’ve not seen decent data in this but have heard several reports to support it. 
So it would seem that we should be taking extra measures to protect this population. And maybe that is being done, although clearly not early enough in NYC.

Thoughts?


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Minnie will note in anti cigarette campaign ads pointing out bad dentition, halitosis, and impact on dating were as if not more effective than showing death. Hopefully you are still intact enough to remember when you were young and invulnerable 😊. Being rendered unemployable, and cognitively impaired should catch the attention of the young. 
fortunately the networks news and the “fake” press are talking some about persistent morbidity. It too soon to tell what should be ascribed to being debilitated from effects of any long illness or being in an ICU and direct viral effects. But not too soon to have documented rate of return to full employment at prior level and return to prior cognitive functional level is clearly impacted. My read is that it’s quite likely a significant segment at all age levels have had direct neurological invasion and will be left with long term sequalae beyond any issues of decreased minute ventilation/vital capacity, deconditioning or PTSD. It remains unknown what the incidence of this really is.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> It's unfortunate that the feds +/or states don't run a few ads on TV, and social media.


I've frequently seen the US surgeon general do exactly this on TV PSAs. Can't say I've seen it elsewhere.

edit... just searched YouTube and the White House channel is full of PSAs on this. Thankfully POTUS isn't doing them, rather Dr Brix and US SG.


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## jephotog (Feb 25, 2002)

hpeer said:


> What we seem to NOT be discussing in this thread is that a large percentage of deaths comes from nursing homes. I've not seen decent data in this but have heard several reports to support it.
> So it would seem that we should be taking extra measures to protect this population. And maybe that is being done, although clearly not early enough in NYC.
> 
> Thoughts?


I heard somewhere these were overstated. At least in one instance, the number of deaths via the CDC had reported more deaths than a nursing home had beds. Not to downplay that Covid, is the equivalent of the perfect storm against the health of those living in Nursing Homes and puts that whole system at risk.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> ...... It remains unknown what the incidence of this really is.


This was my point. Until it is known, most people are not going to alter lifestyle for it. Lower the death rate and the vast majority will want to go back to normal activity. No way this will be a thing unless the incidence rate is high and the long term affect is more severe than headaches.

Understand, I'm not arguing that is a proper reaction, I'm suggesting the reality of public policy.


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## jephotog (Feb 25, 2002)

JoCoSailor said:


> I'm for wearing masks. But you have got to kidding me or yourself. If you think it is keeping folks from touching their face. 99% I see are pulling their mask down under their nose.


I have family members who are physicians and they talk of limiting your exposure. I kept envisioning one drop of Covid making onto my nose or finger and me getting sick. You have to get so many "viral units" to possibly be infected. Any mask helps prevent the number of Covid units from spreading. Wear the mask to the best of your ability/comfort and try not rubbing your eyes, itching your nose, etc, until you get home and wash your hands. If nothing more i have learned how much I used to touch my face before this.

I saw a photo of a guy on a plane sleeping and had his mask pulled up to be used as an eye mask.


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## captain jack (May 5, 2013)

MikeOReilly said:


> It's true that we've seen similar pandemic events in the 20th century (and many before that). So what's different about Covid-19? Some say nothing. But there are a few factors that come to mind that might mean this a different, and new, situation.
> 
> #1. Travel. This is the first major pandemic event in the era of cheap and accessible international travel. Viruses don't fly (at least not very far). They travel with us, and we are traveling further and faster than ever in human history. This is true both internationally, and nationally.
> 
> #2. Risk tolerance. I believe we in the developed countries have lowered the risk levels we are willing to accept. Our wealth and power has reduced so many threats, from disease to accidents to security, that we have changed our expectations of safety. This pandemic is an example where our wealth can't easily protect us all, so we're scared -- more scared than we might have been in the past.


Security is just a comfortable illusion people choose to hold onto. Anything could happen at any minute.


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## captain jack (May 5, 2013)

capta said:


> We're sitting in Carriacou with these same thoughts running through our minds. It seems our charter business is finished, after all, at my age I don't have a lot of years to wait this thing out.
> The planned opening of the airport here July 1st has been postponed indefinitely and I must say I am relieved. I wasn't looking forward to an influx of potential virus carriers, especially those Americans who won't wear masks or social distance because it somehow infringes on their civil liberties. Wasn't our country founded on the idea of protecting *all* its citizens from potential harm and injustice?
> Then there's the problem of going to Trinidad when it opens and the worry that Grenada will close it's borders in the fall because of a second wave of the virus and we won't be able to return.
> I don't care a lot about quarantines, 15 days in Trinidad, 15 days to return to Grenada, but I'd hate to spend the rest of my sailing days in quarantine everywhere I wish to sail.
> ...


America was founded on the principle of individual liberty; not on the idea of protecting people from potential harm or injustice.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Minnie since publication of “Hidden Persuaders” in the 1950s it’s been known an effective ad campaign needs to be intrusive to some degree. You need to go look for the information you cite. A good ad is in your face frequently if you want it or not.
Minnie I don’t get where yo get the only effect is headaches. This is so far from the truth. 
Minnie the incidence of Wasting Disease in elk and deer is low. The incidence of transmission to humans even lower. However it’s an untreatable universally fatal prion illness. A very effective ad campaign and set of public health measures was instituted in all the hotspots in our nation. Hunters and public complied. Red/blue or other social issues didn’t interfere. The illness didn’t spread and was controlled and remains controlled.
Viral induced gynocologic cancer doesn’t impact much on males. We are currently in a public health campaign to vaccinate both male and female children. To date it remains ongoing but seems to be doing well.
When it becomes uncool and socially unacceptable to not follow public health instructions Covid will be controled. Some will comply due to fear of death, some due to fear of long term lasting dysfunction, some for altruistic reasons, some due to fear of shaming. Don’t much care how we get there as long as it’s ethical as long as we get there.


My state (MA) after a tragic debacle with our veterans home has a very clear set of protocols for SNIFs and nursing homes. Numbers have gotten dramatic better.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Jack please read the constitution and bill of rights.
The bill of rights clearly states explicitly its purpose is to “protect people from harm and injustice “.
The union of the colonies into the United States was codified by the constitution. Please read the preamble it clearly states the union was formed to protect people from harm and injustice. You are confusing individual rights and freedom which are codified from the common good.
the basic principle of libertarianism is - I am grounded by the constitution and bill of rights in doing what I wish as long as I don’t injure others. I’m protected by the constitution and bill of rights in the preservation of my individual integrity. I think current mass thought control and surveillance by big tech is a violation. I don’t think what amounts to manslaughter by not following public health instructions falls in that category.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> Minnie I don't get where yo get the only effect is headaches. This is so far from the truth.


Out, ask yourself why you read my comment to say "only" headaches. It is one of the potential long term symptoms and I'm pointing out it's not one you'll get most people to react to.



> Minnie the incidence of Wasting Disease in elk and deer is low. The incidence of transmission to humans even lower. However it's an *untreatable universally fatal *prion illness.


Of course. This comports with my point. People react to mortal threat.



> When it becomes uncool and socially unacceptable to not follow public health instructions Covid will be controled.


Yes! Absolutely. If you can pull it off.

Media has a role, but they get so car crash sensational, too many just assume they're exaggerating, even if they aren't. They cry wolf Too often.

Hollywood has extreme power to change perception too. We could nearly eliminate drugs, if celebrities unified on the "uncool" message. Holier than thou PSA's don't do it. Personal behavior and movie/song content could.

Again, I'm only suggestion what might and might not work to persuade mass public behavior. During the AIDS crisis, govt could have made it illegal to have sex with anyone you weren't married to. We had to come up with smarter ways people would actually follow and remain realistic and deal with treatment.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

I think this pic is particularly poignant.


captain jack said:


> America was founded on the principle of individual liberty; not on the idea of protecting people from potential harm or injustice.


Some must agree with you at any cost.








I wonder if he intends to protect himself from the virus with his sidearm?


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

capta said:


> I think this pic is particularly poignant.
> 
> Some must agree with you at any cost.
> View attachment 136191
> ...


He's gonna need a lot more bullets .


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## Pegu club (Jun 10, 2012)

Presently your concerns are valid, but in early January things will start getting better, as the idiot president we currently have will be gone and we can start to fix the disaster that he and the Republican Party willfully and knowingly caused. Stiff upper lip, better days are a head of us,


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

As an outsider watching what is going on south of the border I shake my head whenever someone says "don't make this political", when it is clear to see that the severity of the outbreak down there is absolutely a result of politics. What do you expect when your president tell his supporters that he believes wearing a mask is a personal attack against him. The right seems to be hell bent on reopening the economy at all costs. It is no accident that the states that are experiencing big resurgence in cases are the ones that are politically aligned with Trump. There is no doubt that if the USA had a competent, unifying federal leadership they would not be where they are today.

I fear the damage is done, and even a new administration in the Whitehouse it is going to take a very long time to fix what is broken. I just hope it can be done without the violence that guys like Tucker Carlson are laying the groundwork for.

To get back on the topic of this thread, we Canadians are watching what's going on with horror. 87% of Canadians feel that the border should remain closed to discretionary cross border travel indefinitely. US flagged pleasure craft seen in Canadian waters are looked upon with suspicion and sometimes hostility. There is pressure on the Federal government to stop allowing cars and boats to transit through to Alaska because so many Americans are taking advantage of that policy to vacation in BC and Alberta. These people are the cause of the anger and hostility we are seeing, and people are pressuring the government to come down hard on them. Boaters who misrepresent their intentions in order to vacation in our waters risk heavy fines, or even forfeiture of their boats. It is only a matter of time before someone is made an example of.

We all just need to stay in our own countries for now, and wait until this is over. 


Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

When Kennedy was president, Americans went to the moon. With Trump as president, Americans can't even go to Europe.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

SchockT said:


> We all just need to stay in our own countries for now, and wait until this is over.


I suspect that before this is over, we may all be forced to stay in our own provinces/states. We're already partway there.


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## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

Pegu club said:


> Presently your concerns are valid, but in early January things will start getting better, as the idiot president we currently have will be gone and we can start to fix the disaster that he and the Republican Party willfully and knowingly caused. Stiff upper lip, better days are a head of us,


Nonsense there may be plenty of blame to go around for some mistakes during the crisis from Trump to Dr. Faulty and New York Governor Cuomo the Nursing Home Killer. Meantime the hypocrisy continues with politicians like New York City Mayor Bozo Bill DeBlasio and others who limit gatherings of people and religious groups unless you are having a Marxist led BLM demonstration. Then there is no limited to the size of the crowds permitted. No wonder people are saying WTF! In the end the blame for the spread of the COVID 19 virus belongs primarily on the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party.
Eventually the hysteria and restrictions will ease up. Though some countries may restrict travel from some countries though I think the American dollars will be missed as it already is in places like Italy. Caribbean countries maybe not so much. Cruise Ships full of Americans might still be welcome. But, cruising sailors may find things a little more difficult. Maybe the locals have had enough of watching the cruisers bringing their pets to the local beaches daily to defecate during their stays. They also may have had enough of cruisers wiping out the shelves in local markets as they provision their boats for their next transit. Leaving the locals to wait for the next cargo delivery. Then there are cruisers who spear fish on the local reefs helping to deplenish a food source for the locals. Who could blame them for restricting cruisers from plying their waters in the future.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

I think this nickname stuff is childish. It reveals a bias that distracts from the points that you’re trying to make. I try to consider all points of view, but when you make up names for highly regarded public figures, I skip over the rest of what you’re saying.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

The first political salvo was fired when the Feds banned travel from China and Trump was labeled a xenophobe. Biden was on that bandwagon, but cleverly attack his leadership and his rubes defend those tweets. Still, it was quickly obvious that the far right saw this as an illegitimate attack and dug in on retorting the exaggeration, the fake news, for sure that time. The far left saw the extreme shutdowns as an opportunity to declare “health over money” and the most extreme even suggesting they could topple the entire economic system now. 

I’m here to tell you the independents don’t buy either party’s BS. 

I’m embarrassed to have Trump as our leader, but equally embarrassed to listen to all the twisted political attacks, unless they are accurate. I think Biden is a pretty good man. However, I’ve personally met both Pelosi and Schumer and neither can be trusted. The are the worst of the derogatory “politician“ and they will own Biden. He did not want to run for President, he was recruited. 

It’s the worst job on earth and a life sentence for you and your family, living the rest of your lives being politically attacked and behind a wall of security. It’s the making of the political divisiveness. Anyone who tows the line for one political party is the foundation of the problem.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

mbianka said:


> Meantime the hypocrisy continues with politicians like New York City Mayor Bozo Bill DeBlasio and others who limit gatherings of people and religious groups unless you are having a Marxist led BLM demonstration. Then there is no limited to the size of the crowds permitted.


Uh, I think you forgot to mention Trump's political rallies. If you're going to rant on this subject, at least give credit to all sides.
Interestingly enough though, at Trump's rallies the pictures show very few wearing masks, whereas almost everyone at the BLM rallies is wearing a mask. Now I ask you, which to you consider more socially responsible?


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

This is exactly how these go down the sewer. I know conservatives that wear masks and liberals that don’t (most 20 somethings for example). If you think all BLM protests were masked, that’s politically blind. 

Can we get back to sailing, close the thread or move it to the sewer, where it now belongs. It stinks in here.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

captain jack said:


> America was founded on the principle of individual liberty; not on the idea of protecting people from potential harm or injustice.


people Formed governments ( packs) before the written word. The premise is safety for the individuals by the power of the group.

Your right as an individual is preserved as long as it doesnt threaten the herd. You right of freedom of speech is not completely unabridged. You cant as an individual yell fire in a crowded area causing harm by the stampede by the herd around you.

if you want to live without restriction move to Antartica.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Minnewaska said:


> The first political salvo was fired when the Feds banned travel from China and Trump was labeled a xenophobe.


He was appropriately labeled a xenophobe long before that. I personally never complained about the ban, but did complain that the China ban (and downplaying the danger) was all he did for almost two months.


Minnewaska said:


> I think Biden is a pretty good man. However, I've personally met both Pelosi and Schumer and neither can be trusted. The are the worst of the derogatory "politician" and they will own Biden.


I could challenge that, but I'll just respond by saying that at according to your accusation, at least Biden is American-owned. ?


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

SchockT said:


> As an outsider watching what is going on south of the border I shake my head whenever someone says "don't make this political", when it is clear to see that the severity of the outbreak down there is absolutely a result of politics. What do you expect when your president tell his supporters that he believes wearing a mask is a personal attack against him. The right seems to be hell bent on reopening the economy at all costs. It is no accident that the states that are experiencing big resurgence in cases are the ones that are politically aligned with Trump. There is no doubt that if the USA had a competent, unifying federal leadership they would not be where they are today.
> 
> I fear the damage is done, and even a new administration in the Whitehouse it is going to take a very long time to fix what is broken. I just hope it can be done without the violence that guys like Tucker Carlson are laying the groundwork for.
> 
> ...


Totally agree.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

TakeFive said:


> He was appropriately labeled a xenophobe long before that. I personally never complained about the ban, but did complain that the China ban (and downplaying the danger) was all he did for almost two months.
> 
> I could challenge that, but I'll just respond by saying that at according to your accusation, at least Biden is American-owned. ?


I have PERSONALLY met and worked with Pelosi, Boehnet, Ryan, Schumer, Reid, OConnell , Obama, Biden, over the last 12 years. and worked for Trump for 18 years where I saw him every day For three of them. I see very little difference between and of them except that Trump won't let experts help run things

they are all politicians.
they all have good attributes
they all have bad attributes
they are all qualified or unqualified to serve, and all suffer, take advantage of the media and the political system set up 
for them by us
they are all owned by those who financially support them to run and stay in power

When something does work....Americans vote for change.
Trumps approach to the virus isn't working....simple as that....Americans will turn him out


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

TakeFive said:


> He was appropriately labeled a xenophobe long before that. I personally never complained about the ban, but did complain that the China ban (and downplaying the danger) was all he did for almost two months.
> 
> I could challenge that, but I'll just respond by saying that at according to your accusation, at least Biden is American-owned. ?


Better controlled by Pelosi and Schumer who are Americans than controlled by Putin and Kim I'll Sung


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

capta said:


> When Kennedy was president, Americans went to the moon. With Trump as president, Americans can't even go to Europe.


Or Canada


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

contrarian said:


> If only we could vote for "None of the Above"


We can. And I always have.
And doing otherwise only serves to encourage their bad behavior.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

capta said:


> When Kennedy was president, Americans went to the moon.


and 1 twitch away from a nuclear holocaust

BTW - when the first man landed on the moon it was President Nixon watching from the White House!


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

TakeFive said:


> I suspect that before this is over, we may all be forced to stay in our own provinces/states. We're already partway there.


We were already there, but at this point we have covid under control and interprovincial travel is opening up again. It is only the USA that is having to backtrack and close things up again.

That's not to say that a second wave can't happen, but right now BC has only 16 people hospitalized, and only 5 in ICU, so it is safe to say we have flattened the curve.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

BTW - since we aren't talking boating on a boating forum

If you blame the President because your Governor didn't take actions to protect their State you are being foolish. And if your blame your State Governor for your Mayor not taking action to protect your city, you are being foolish. And if you blame anyone else for YOU not taking actions to protect yourself, you are very foolish.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Don L said:


> and 1 twitch away from a nuclear holocaust
> 
> BTW - when the first man landed on the moon it was President Nixon watching from the White House!


Should have been watching from jail😄


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Don L said:


> BTW - since we aren't talking boating on a boating forum
> 
> If you blame the President because your Governor didn't take actions to protect their State you are being foolish. And if your blame your State Governor for your Mayor not taking action to protect your city, you are being foolish. And if you blame anyone else for YOU not taking actions to protect yourself, you are very foolish.


It's easy to criticize ......make fun of others and second guess......so what is your solution?


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

SchockT said:


> We were already there, but at this point we have covid under control and interprovincial travel is opening up again. It is only the USA that is having to backtrack and close things up again.
> 
> That's not to say that a second wave can't happen, but right now BC has only 16 people hospitalized, and only 5 in ICU, so it is safe to say we have flattened the curve.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


Posted earlier today by another Canadian cruiser:


MikeOReilly said:


> Just as a follow up, I've officially abandoned any hope of using my boat this season. Newfoundland remains closed to all outside of the "Atlantic Bubble." They may open up to the rest of Canada on July 17, but by then it's too late for me...


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Yes, Newfoundland remains closed to those outside the Atlantic bubble (NL, NS, NB, PEI). NL has been the most conservative in its response to the pandemic, limiting non-essential travel to legal residents only. It continues, although may open to the rest of Canada in a week.

I don't like it, and it's have a serious impact on my life and lifestyle, but I do understand the reasons, and I can't honestly disagree with the decision to keep us "come from aways" out. It's an island with a small but relatively concentrated population. It's one of the least wealthy provinces, and its healthcare infrastructure is limited. 

So I understand... I don't like it, but I understand.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Salty Cracker said:


> We can. And I always have.
> And doing otherwise only serves to encourage their bad behavior.


unfortunately with the system we have it doesn't happen that way. You don't send any message to anyone, you throw your vote away in terms of choice given. But I understand internally it is cathartic to yourself to vote that way.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

TakeFive said:


> Posted earlier today by another Canadian cruiser:


Of course I am speaking from a West Coast perspective. The East Coast is over 5500km away!

I can't blame them for keeping things closed up a little longer. Ontario and Quebec aren't in as good shape as western Canada is.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

chef2sail said:


> unfortunately with the system we have it doesn't happen that way. You don't send any message to anyone, you throw your vote away in terms of choice given. But I understand internally it is cathartic to yourself to vote that way.


I respect your opinion, even if it's in the minority. Actually as a full throated contrarian, I respect it _because _it's a minority opinion.
Yes, it's a personal choice not to give my vote away. I don't play penny slots either. When I look back at every single party nominee since I've turned voting age, I would be ashamed to have endorsed any one of them.
I don't care how/if you vote. I only care that you share your sailing knowledge.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Salty Cracker said:


> Yes, it's a personal choice not to give my vote away. I don't play penny slots either. When I look back at every single party nominee since I've turned voting age, I would be ashamed to have endorsed any one of them.


I disagree pretty strongly with this "Nobody is good enough" attitude. Everyone has flaws, but agree with them or not, the vast majority have distinguished careers serving their constituents. Throwing your vote away every election year is sad, and says more about you than it does them.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Salty Cracker said:


> I respect your opinion, even if it's in the minority. Actually as a full throated contrarian, I respect it _because _it's a minority opinion.
> Yes, it's a personal choice not to give my vote away. I don't play penny slots either. When I look back at every single party nominee since I've turned voting age, I would be ashamed to have endorsed any one of them.
> I don't care how/if you vote. I only care that you share your sailing knowledge.





> *"contrarian said:
> If only we could vote for "None of the Above"*


*You statement .....We can. And I always have.
And doing otherwise only serves to encourage their bad behavior." *

was really only responding to your remarked which opened the topic about voting up. 
I respect your opinion also. Since you continued I will respond . The minority opinion is yours. The of people who voted in the 2016 election 92.3 % voted for either Clinton or Trump. All the other Contrarians 7.7% ....clearly an overwhelming minority.

it ok. I believe voting is a personal right no matter who you vote for. It's the ones who choose not to vote for anything which I don't understand. Abrogating that right is also someone's choice?


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

TakeFive said:


> I disagree pretty strongly with this "Nobody is good enough" attitude. Everyone has flaws, but agree with them or not, the vast majority have distinguished careers serving their constituents. Throwing your vote away every election year is sad, and says more about you than it does them.


That's okay you feel that way. I see it differently that's all.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

chef2sail said:


> *You statement .....We can. And I always have.
> And doing otherwise only serves to encourage their bad behavior." *
> 
> was really only responding to your remarked which opened the topic about voting up.
> ...


*


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

chef2sail said:


> *You statement .....We can. And I always have.
> And doing otherwise only serves to encourage their bad behavior." *
> 
> The minority opinion is yours. The of people who voted in the 2016 election 92.3 % voted for either Clinton or Trump. All the other Contrarians 7.7% ....clearly an overwhelming minority.


Respectfully, I think you misunderstand my point. Never in American history has the majority of citizens voted in an election. In our lifetime, it's hovered just above the 35% range. 
Gosh, I'm starting to feel like I do when I tell a Yankee fan that I don't like baseball.
I don't mind if you vote. Honestly. I don't care who you vote for either. It doesn't effect me either way.
I'm more interested in sailing.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

@Minnewaska noted. I don't think there is a sewer any more...

Don't really want to close the thread.

Would be nice if the political name calling type stuff stopped though.

It certainly is a frustrating topic. But if the partisan type stuff could be dropped, there is some information being exchanged.

Btw, I am in Ontario and we certainly seem to be one of the last remaining hot spots in Canada for now. I have not been able to launch my boat yet. Legally yes, but doubt I could do it and maintain an adequate level of distancing. We are still getting 100+ new cases a day here.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Salty Cracker said:


> I respect your opinion, even if it's in the minority. Actually as a full throated contrarian, I respect it _because _it's a minority opinion.
> Yes, it's a personal choice not to give my vote away. I don't play penny slots either. When I look back at every single party nominee since I've turned voting age, I would be ashamed to have endorsed any one of them.
> I don't care how/if you vote. I only care that you share your sailing knowledge.


I sincerely believe it is our civic duty to vote, even if we believe we are voting for the lesser of two evils, so to speak. Last election it cost my wife over us$50.00 to FedEx her absentee ballot to Connecticut from Grenada. SC let me email mine in. This year we may be able to put them in the Embassy diplomatic bag.
IMO if you don't vote, you have no right to criticize any part or actions of the government at all.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

Arcb said:


> Would be nice if the political name calling type stuff stopped though.
> 
> It certainly is a frustrating topic. But if the partisan type stuff could be dropped, there is some information being exchanged.


I agree. It's the name calling and partisanship that has always turned me off of politics. It's all I heard growing up and through school. I vowed to never get wrapped up in it. Some of my friends have hyper-politicized their young kids.



capta said:


> I sincerely believe it is our civic duty to vote, even if we believe we are voting for the lesser of two evils, so to speak. Last election it cost my wife over us$50.00 to FedEx her absentee ballot to Connecticut from Grenada. SC let me email mine in. This year we may be able to put them in the Embassy diplomatic bag.
> IMO if you don't vote, you have no right to criticize any part or actions of the government at all.


I think you should do what you believe is right. I don't judge people based on these things.
It's easy for me to assume that you have nothing but the best intentions.
I've never once suggested that anybody don't vote.
All I did was mention, in passing, to somebody that I don't vote on purpose and that it's the best way to vote for "none of the above". I choose not to give my vote away.
I'll always reserve my right/duty to criticize the jackals though.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

“I've been all over the world and I've never seen a statue of a critic.” 
― Leonard Bernstein


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Salty Cracker said:


> Never in American history has the majority of citizens voted in an election. In our lifetime, it's hovered just above the 35% range.


Completely false.

Turnout of voting age population has been over 50% in every presidential election since 1928, except for 1996 when it was 49%. If you count by % of eligible registered voters the % is higher because the denominator is lower.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Now there’s evidence that if you survive SARS-2 COVID-19 the effective protective antibodies may only last for several weeks. After that you can get reinfected. This is no surprise as it’s also true for the common cold - another covid virus.
If these results are confirmed in other studies it will have huge implications for social policy, development of herd immunity, vaccinate development and persistence of the virus.
Theres been further documentation of several post COVID-19 syndromes. These are being documented in young as well as old survivors. Persistent neurological deficits, persistent respiratory deficits and various pain syndromes. The virus is now understood to attack the small vasculature (arterioles/capillaries etc.). This plus an induced hypercoagulable state leading to multiple organs(brain, heart, liver, kidneys etc.) being at risk for damage. The percentage of survivors NOT being able to returning to prior gainful employment at the same level of employment seems quite significant and the percentage not returning to any form of work as well.
Due to economic pressures expect the Caribbean will continue to open. Even with restrictions on Americans and inter island traffic expect penetration of the virus in up coming months. Expect there will be an evolution to only accept testing for the presence of virus for purpose of travel. Either PCR or antigen not antibody. Suspect accepted interval between test and acceptance for immigration will be shorten. Believe airline travel will be unsafe for quite some time to come. Believe Caribbean cruising will be unsatisfactory for quite some time to come.
In response to the above I have changed my future plans. My boat will be loaded on a Seven Seas ship come 22-25 of July and transported from Rodney Bay to Newport RI. It’s a port to port and wet to wet transport so hugely expensive. I’m scrambling to arrange this and surprised by the complexity. In doing so I’ve been networking. Find out in my circle a increasing number have made or are making similar plans. The other common choice among my friends is to haul their boats and rent land properties for long term residences. They are betting on a low risk of infection where they are. The expectation is no resolution for several years. This is particularly true among America friends where there’s an expected resistance to vaccination and appropriate social policy leading other countries to blanketly view them as suspect.
the following is not political but rather-it is what it is.
nearly all countries are dividing into states, districts or provinces. Nearly all countries understood a virus just doesn’t care about these artificial divisions.
Nearly all countries understood social policy needs to be based on predictions of behavior of potential vectors. So Minneapolis St Paul and like transborder regions are one. State lines are irrelevant as are counties and city borders. What’s relevant is hotspots, cold spots and common travel corridors.

nearly all countries understood expense, availability and transport of PPE, medical supplies, medical infrastructure, and personal should be approached nationally. Only by doing so could you maximize availability and minimize expense.
We failed and are continuing to fail to accept these realities. We are and will continue to pay the price of these failures. This is a failures of policy. Politics may underpin this failure as well as public perception, resistance to acceptance of basic scientific, epidemiological and medical principles and misunderstanding of existing of our founding documents. But it’s a policy failure where the rubber hits the road.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Thanks for the medical update OB. I'm not as immersed in the liturature as you, but this coincides with what I've been reading. This is definitely not just a bad flu, and it's also not just a danger to the elderly or immune-compromised. 

As a Canadian that shares a big southern border with the USA, I've been increasingly alarmed at the complete fubar approach that country is taking toward the pandemic. Not all states and not all jurisdictions, but the overall effect puts the USA increasingly on the outlier side of the graph.

Countries who have the economic ability will increasingly be forced to restrict American travel. It's not fair because some areas of your country are doing well (so far). But international travel is conducted on a nation to nation level. The USA will be treated as one entity.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Ha... as if on cue, I open my CBC news feed and see this as the top story:

*Canada adds health officials at U.S. border crossings to screen for COVID-19*
*Move follows a surge in coronavirus cases in many U.S. states*


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

@outbound - Thank you for this succinct and thorough summary. It's one of the best that I've seen. I am sickened to see the deluge of data that shows the US performing no better than 3rd world ("sh!thole") countries.


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## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

TakeFive said:


> I think this nickname stuff is childish. It reveals a bias that distracts from the points that you're trying to make. I try to consider all points of view, but when you make up names for highly regarded public figures, I skip over the rest of what you're saying.


As you wish. Sorry about the snarky response. I understand and I feel the same way about the lengthy politically infused polemics sometimes posted here. Of course it's debatable about who the "highly regarded public figures" are. Current media praise or lack there of is not an indication of how well they have done once the dust settles.


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## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

capta said:


> Uh, I think you forgot to mention Trump's political rallies. If you're going to rant on this subject, at least give credit to all sides.
> Interestingly enough though, at Trump's rallies the pictures show very few wearing masks, whereas almost everyone at the BLM rallies is wearing a mask. Now I ask you, which to you consider more socially responsible?


Point is that some State and Local officials will padlock small local city parks to not allow the children to play in them. But, say nothing when thousands of people gather to protest. Also those attending the Trump rally were temperature checked before entering which is more than can be said for those in the protest crowds.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

mbianka said:


> Point is that some State and Local officials will padlock small local city parks to not allow the children to play in them. But, say nothing when thousands of people gather to protest. Also those attending the Trump rally were temperature checked before entering which is more than can be said for those in the protest crowds.


Don't forget those armed militia wannabe rallies storming Statehouses demanding haircuts. That is as fundamental of a right as the right to breathe.

Mark


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Just spoke about the future with a chairman and professor at one of the tertiary Harvard Boston hospitals. His read is exactly the same as I posted. He further pointed out the past history of RNA vaccines and why they are not in common usage. This is because of a relatively high incidence of side effects. He believes (as do I) the current US Federal vaccine campaign is being poorly handled. This is being misguided in the hopes of a licensed vaccine before the election. Current direction is politically motivated and will not follow commonsense guidelines. Given urgency it is appropriate to fast tract but ”first do no harm” has been a medical precept for thousands of years and risk/benefit calculations remain the premier principle in current clinical practice. That being the case I will follow the clear social guidelines for the indefinite future although I’m current in a cold spot as regards risk. Both he and I will be vaccinated once a vaccine against spike protein antigen has passed a level2 not even a level3 trial with reasonable results.

Aside an aside some of the above posts are total BS. Both from the left and right. The guidelines are clear. Supporting science is being refined but the guidelines are supported by experience on the US east coast as well as multiple other countries. Basically if you’re not exposed to the virus you don’t get it. Limit your exposure and limit your ability to serve as a vector of the virus. That’s it. That hasn’t changed one iota since the beginning of this pandemic. Violations of the guidelines is antisocial, increases risks to all, and just plain stupid. People talk about a tree failing to see the forest. People ascribe political motives, financial motives, religious belief and other extraneous issues to this. The virus just doesn’t care about any of this nonsense. Drop it and talk about how the pandemic is effecting your sailing.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Forgot to mention licensing and disseminating an ineffectual or dangerous vaccine for general use will confound and increase non compliance once a safe and effective vaccine is developed. That would be truly tragic.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

outbound said:


> Forgot to mention licensing and disseminating an ineffectual or dangerous vaccine for general use will confound and increase non compliance once a safe and effective vaccine is developed. That would be truly tragic.


And very likely in this political environment, wouldn't you think?


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

USA faces the "state's rights" problem when a national response is called for. And that mentality is present within the states themselves.... One town does one thing another does something else. Actual war is a different matter... people enlist or are drafted from all 50 states to "serve" the nation.

Many important matters concerning the commons are driven by for profit corps. You can see this in how energy companies are driven by share value and profits rather than environmental considerations. Government is supposed to represent the interests of the people, but government has fallen prey to the influence of corporations and their holy need for profit.

Medicine has fallen to the profit makers.... and insurance has become a "medical" component... another for profit force. Even medical patents are created for nothing else than to control the market and increase the profits.

The covid 19 cannot be licked by a strong economy. But perhaps a rising DOW can distract voters from what they need to do to survive this plaque.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Public health policy is a federal issue. 
States can’t all have different standards of for instance meat inspection .
States can’t have differing overarching marine rules. Imagine if buoys meant different things in NY and Conn.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

chef2sail said:


> Public health policy is a federal issue.
> States can't all have different standards of for instance meat inspection .
> States can't have differing overarching marine rules. Imagine if buoys meant different things in NY and Conn.


Well of course... but the states rights idiots want to control all manner of things which should be federal matters.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

SanderO said:


> Well of course... but the states rights idiots want to control all manner of things which should be federal matters.


States rights claims are just gaslighting. The same people are still claiming that it's a hoax that was made up to defeat Trump. (Wow, how did we get the ENTIRE WORLD to participate in this conspiracy?) It's total denial of the medical statistics, with conspiracy theories that non-COVID deaths are being falsely attributed to COVID. I guess they're using paid actors to go fill up the emergency rooms.


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## jvlassak (Oct 1, 2009)

outbound said:


> Just spoke about the future with a chairman and professor at one of the tertiary Harvard Boston hospitals. His read is exactly the same as I posted. He further pointed out the past history of RNA vaccines and why they are not in common usage. This is because of a relatively high incidence of side effects. He believes (as do I) the current US Federal vaccine campaign is being poorly handled. This is being misguided in the hopes of a licensed vaccine before the election. Current direction is politically motivated and will not follow commonsense guidelines. Given urgency it is appropriate to fast tract but "first do no harm" has been a medical precept for thousands of years and risk/benefit calculations remain the premier principle in current clinical practice. That being the case I will follow the clear social guidelines for the indefinite future although I'm current in a cold spot as regards risk. Both he and I will be vaccinated once a vaccine against spike protein antigen has passed a level2 not even a level3 trial with reasonable results.


Outbound, in one of your posts you mention that antibodies last only a few weeks. Does that imply that vaccines will not be effective either? For a disease such as measles, there is no better protection than having had the disease - that doesn't seem to be the case for Covid19.

If so, this will have major implications for public health and our ability to sail wherever the winds take us.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

TakeFive said:


> Completely false.
> 
> Turnout of voting age population has been over 50% in every presidential election since 1928, except for 1996 when it was 49%. If you count by % of eligible registered voters the % is higher because the denominator is lower.


While only slightly exaggerated, you're essentially right. A better source shows that voting age population participation hovers at about 50% on average. I took from a source figuring in TOTAL population. Go figure.
I'm comfortable with my choice. And I respect yours.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

chef2sail said:


> "I've been all over the world and I've never seen a statue of a critic."
> ― Leonard Bernstein


These are just off the top of my head. Please don't mistake any particular inclusion as an endorsement.

Mahatma Gandhi
George Washington
Muhammad Ali
All the confederate generals
Christopher Columbus
Martin Luther King Jr.
Thomas Jefferson
Karl Marx
Vladimir Lennon
John Lennon
Hunter S. Thompson
Nelson Mandela
Che Guevara
Jesus Christ
Malcolm x
Albert Pike


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

All the above presented solutions with their criticisms. Criticizing without solution......we’ll let’s say I divorced that 30 years ago


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

“For a disease such as measles, there is no better protection than having had the disease “

This is not a true statement. For many viruses once you have them you always have them. For instance the ones associated with gynecological cancer or herpes and cold sores. There’s a disease subacute sclorosing pan encephalitis that represents reactivation in adulthood of measles in the brain and nearly universally fatal. No thanks.!!!people continue to fail to understand the morbidity of a disease is very complex. For instance with TB your immune response may do just as much damage as the bug itself. The covid thing doesn't violate known principles of infectious disease. Just is a particularly nasty example. I made sure everyone I love was vaccinated. I vaccinate myself against those infectious diseases I can reasonably be exposed to that have passed a level three trial and show what I think are acceptable risk/benefit.
Due to the Internet , continued restrictions on access to knowledge, lack of teaching of basic scientific principles in grade school many misconceptions are held by the general public. This has resulted in bad public policy. Creationism in Kansas, resistance to addressing climate change, the anti vaccer movement. The near total lack of understanding how risk/benefit decisions are made and the implications (absence of black/white. Everything’s is always a shade of grey) continues. The current crisis lays this bare. Policy needs to rapidly respond as new facts are.established. This doesn’t make prior policy wrong but rather best advice with available data and analysis. Rand Paul is way out on the right but he was trained as a physician. Although I’m fairly libertarian I think he’s a jerk. Still, you can have a rational discussion with him. Again this is a policy not political issue. We’ve set up a perfect storm. Public acceptance of beliefs with no scientific underpinnings, anti intellectualism, unfounded righteousness of both right and left, lack of knowledge of our founding documents.
Finshed arranging ship transport of my boat yesterday. I went through a decision matrix. As new information became available modified it. I listened to people who know more about doing this (friends who are commercial captains) accepting expert advice. I accepted my original plan was wrong. In short acted rationally. It may come to pass shipping the boat turns out to be a bad decision but at least I went through a risk/benefit protocol so know I did the best I could
The presence of my way or the highway thinking at all levels of our society will be our undoing. Just wish it would stop.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Turning back to to covid. With my demographics my current thinking (modifiable as new informative becomes available) I will vaccinate. Vaccine needs to provide 60% or greater efficacy, have passed a well run level two trial and have a acceptable risk of side effects. Given risks of death and long term disability this is a rational risk/ benefit decision. My sailing program will be determined by reported efficacy of the vaccine ,and incidence and prevalence of covid in projected cruising ground(s). Similarly at present although I’m currently in a cold spot I continue to restrict behaviors to lower my risk and do actions that lower my risk and that of others. We need Spock not Kirk thinking on this.covid has no emotions. Follows strict scientific laws. Doesn’t give a damn who you are or what you think.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Salty Cracker said:


> While only slightly exaggerated, you're essentially right. A better source shows that voting age population participation hovers at about 50% on average. I took from a source figuring in TOTAL population. Go figure.
> I'm comfortable with my choice. And I respect yours.


Total population is irrelevant. Children under 18 and non-citizen residents are not allowed to vote. You used irrelevant data to back up your false statement. You should not be comfortable with that.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

outbound said:


> "For a disease such as measles, there is no better protection than having had the disease "
> 
> This is not a true statement. For many viruses once you have them you always have them.


Another example is chicken pox. As one who has suffered shingles, the reactivation of dormant chicken pox virus in an adult, I really wish the chicken pox vaccine was available when I was a kid.



outbound said:


> It may come to pass shipping the boat turns out to be a bad decision


That's the decision I would have made.

Mark


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> Just spoke about the future with a chairman and professor at one of the tertiary Harvard Boston hospitals.


Sorry, Out. While that sounds impressive, unless their specialty is infectious disease or epidemiology, it's not necessarily authoritative. It's more educated than the average bear reading the NYT and WSJ, for certain, but my urologist had no opinion on the long term effects of my meniscus tear.

The common cold is not vaccinated, more because there is virtually no death or long term effects. People do die from seasonal Flu, so we vaccinate. However, the vaccine has very low efficacy. 50/50 maybe, over time?

However, as I've posted before, the Flu vaccine has been studied to show that, while not greatly eliminating development, it largely reduces the death rate. 86% lower, iirc. Did this professor opine on this point?

My hope is that the vaccine has greatest impact on reducing mortality and long term side effects, for which there is precedent in coronavirus vaccination to be hopeful. The concern has never been and will not largely be, simply catching the Flu.

When death rate (perhaps long term side effect) is low enough, all will reopen and this epidemic will stop making the news, even if many still get sick.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

I dunno I think I will listen to the doctors opinions on human health and it’s effects before I listen to an airline pilot or in my case a chef.😄😄😄 no matter which discipline the doctor specialty is

While we all have to form our opinions about issues we have no expertise in. Listening to a variety of views and angles helps in creating a more balanced decision. Usually that means an amalgamation of the opinions you viewed.

I appreciate hearing Outbounds views ( sometimes I read a number of times as they can be quite long and intricate) and postings of experts in the medical field he follows.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Minnie nothing you said countervenes what I posted. However your analysis is faulty. I’ve been involved in a vaccine trial which was aborted due to a untoward side effect. I have a degree in epidemiology. I’m not a urologist talking about orthopedics. The gentleman I was chatting with is well versed in virology and immunology as its part of his research and multiple publications. I know there’s a lot of people more knowledgeable than me. He has brought vaccines to market. I listen closely to him. When he says RNA vaccines should be looked at closely before acceptance and for vaccines aimed at preserved domains such as some of the spike proteins a level 2 may suffice I am in concert with that thinking.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Out, I'm hoping you can reply to the question. I said nothing of your credentials, rather I asked about the Professor that agreed with you. Thanks for the clarification. 

Back to my fundamental point. Exactly what was faulty with my analysis? You claimed that was the case, but never seemed to addressed it. The CDC has studied the Flu vaccine's impact on death rates and concluded, more than once, that it had a significant positive impact, despite whether it was effective against becoming symptomatic. I swear I posted the link above somewhere, but not looking for it again right now.

This is the best hoped for outcome and, if effective enough against death and long term affect, it would be amply sufficient.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

I tend to be very pro-vaccines. As a school board president, I took a tough line against allowing vaccine exclusions for children whose parents simply didn't want them to get a vaccine. Cancer kids get an exclusion, everyone else needs a vaccine to protect those who can't get one.

However, this whole COVID-19 debacle is turning me skeptical. You can bet that POTUS is going to force FDA to rush approval of a vaccine before the election and hype it just like he did hydroxychloroquine . I'm reading that RNA vaccines have not been successful for other coronaviruses, and have had significant side effects.

I myself got a part 1 of a new 2-part lyme disease vaccine about 25 years ago. When I went to get part 2, I was told that Merck had pulled the vaccine off the market because they discovered a heightened risk of rheumatoid arthritis. So I now have the heightened risk with none of the protection. That's what happens when products are rushed to market, but Trump will be screaming, "What have you got to lose???"

I desperately want a vaccine, but it MUST be fully tested and validated. For that, I will listen to medical experts, not a self-aggrandizing narcissistic autocrat.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

Salty Cracker said:


> A better source shows that voting age population participation hovers at about 50% on average. I took from a source figuring in TOTAL population. Go figure.
> I'm comfortable with my choice. And I respect yours.





TakeFive said:


> Total population is irrelevant. Children under 18 and non-citizen residents are not allowed to vote. You used irrelevant data to back up your false statement. You should not be comfortable with that.


You shouldn't continue to argue with a person that agrees with you.
I pointed out that I didn't notice that my original source factored the WHOLE population. That's would be inaccurate.
Only counting voting age citizens would be accurate. 
When doing so, an average of about 50% casts a ballot for president. Some cycles more, Some cycles less.
An interesting footnote that I found at the census bureau is that its been noticed that many people claim to vote that actually don't. More claim to vote that actual returns show. That probably only accounts for a few % though.
Let's not let politics separate us okay? I don't care that you like to vote. It shouldn't bother you so much that I choose not to.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

chef2sail said:


> All the above presented solutions with their criticisms. Criticizing without solution......we'll let's say I divorced that 30 years ago


Hey, another thing we have in common... me too! Except for me it was 34 yrs ago.
Let's go forward knowing that we have things in common okay? Love of sailing, a chef and solutions on living ones life in accordance with their beliefs.
If you ever find yourself moored in Mobjack bay, let's get together and share some solutions for humanities problems.
Or we could talk about food and sailing. I know more about food than sailing though.
But alas, I was just correcting the often quixotic Leonard Bernstein's notion that harsh critics of federal government haven't been treated with statues.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

You failed to consider long term disability. Lowering mortality is wonderful but lowering morbidity is quite important as well. With ’flu you get sick-either die or get better. With Covid you get sick but there are is an third possibility. You get better but are left with sequalae that is either permanent or that takes a very long time to clear. That known fact confounds your analysis. I have no interest being left with a stroke nor surviving a myocardial infarction and being a cardiac cripple nor being left with cognitive impairment nor a pain syndrome etc. We are talking about hypotheticals as there is NO knowledge about incidence and nature of side effect risk nor efficacy nor any of the clinical details of any of the vaccinations in development. That’s what level 3 trials are for. Even with level 3 completed the medical community continues to report adverse reactions and is often mandated to do so. Understanding the details of a vaccine takes years. Can’t be forced by political motives nor fear. So with all due respect you need to admit “you don’t know what you don’t know”. So you need to avoid mental masturbation .


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## Sal Paradise (Sep 14, 2012)

Back to the title of the thread for a post - the NYTimes has a rather depressing article today saying that the world is closed off to Americans. Likely will be until a vaccine is out and distributed.

When will that be? The NYTimes reports China already has one for their military









Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker


A look at all the vaccines that have reached trials in humans.



www.nytimes.com


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Most of our vaccines come from India to my knowledge. Feds have long standing established law in place to mandate production here (GM making tanks for WW2 as an example). My understanding is we have yet to gear up to produce the necessary glass vials let alone the vaccine production at an adequate scale. This needs to done at a federal level. It’s common knowledge we are in process as regards who gets prioritized for receiving a future vaccine but that remains in flux as well as payment for the vaccine or vaccines. Logistics may be a major issue.
ideal situation is to preposition all aspects of vaccine production domestically, Have the order in which you will vaccinate the population established. Have insurance issues not be an obstacle to vaccinating the entire population even if feds have to pay for the uninsured and have several effective vaccines available. Doubt that will happen if the past predicts the future. Think it not unlikely it will still be a year or two until the bugs are worked out and you as an individual can receive a vaccine. I’m also concerned we will fast track a vaccine inadequately studied so it will not be recognized as adequate by other countries for practique.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Minnewaska said:


> .....if effective enough against death *and long term affect*, it would be amply sufficient.





outbound said:


> You failed to consider long term disability.


I added emphasis to my point, in my post, that you seem to have missed.



> So with all due respect you need to admit "you don't know what you don't know". So you need to avoid mental masturbation .


You can claim this is with respect, but it's hard to take it that way. Not sure why your knickers are twisted.


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## Salty Cracker (Jul 8, 2020)

Russian said:


> You may want to cross out the Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin - these came down at the fall of Soviet Union back in 1991. As someone from that era and from the Motherland, I can assure you there are NO standing monuments of these damned commie propagators anywhere in Russia or Ukraine. There's a mummy of Lenin still laying at Red Square mausoleum for tourist amusement though.


BUT, they _were_ there when Mr. Bernstein made that silly statement right? That was my only point.
You and I can both have a toast to their demise. 
Welcome to the forum. I'm rather new myself. This seems to be a good group for the most part it seems.
I hope I can glean some sailing knowledge from you.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

TakeFive said:


> I tend to be very pro-vaccines. As a school board president, I took a tough line against allowing vaccine exclusions for children whose parents simply didn't want them to get a vaccine. Cancer kids get an exclusion, everyone else needs a vaccine to protect those who can't get one.
> 
> However, this whole COVID-19 debacle is turning me skeptical. You can bet that POTUS is going to force FDA to rush approval of a vaccine before the election and hype it just like he did hydroxychloroquine . I'm reading that RNA vaccines have not been successful for other coronaviruses, and have had significant side effects.
> 
> ...





Salty Cracker said:


> Hey, another thing we have in common... me too! Except for me it was 34 yrs ago.
> Let's go forward knowing that we have things in common okay? Love of sailing, a chef and solutions on living ones life in accordance with their beliefs.
> If you ever find yourself moored in Mobjack bay, let's get together and share some solutions for humanities problems.
> Or we could talk about food and sailing. I know more about food than sailing though.
> But alas, I was just correcting the often quixotic Leonard Bernstein's notion that harsh critics of federal government haven't been treated with statues.


sounds good to me and a plan
If you are also up in the Annapolis area let me know....
We keep our boat in a creek just north of there but south of the Bay bridge


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Minnie apologies my bad


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> Minnie apologies my bad


Cheers, my friend. Hope to see you out there somewhere, on the other side of all this. No Caribbean plans for me this winter either. Glad to hear your baby is coming home.


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## jvlassak (Oct 1, 2009)

outbound said:


> "For a disease such as measles, there is no better protection than having had the disease "
> 
> This is not a true statement. For many viruses once you have them you always have them. For instance the ones associated with gynecological cancer or herpes and cold sores. There's a disease subacute sclorosing pan encephalitis that represents reactivation in adulthood of measles in the brain and nearly universally fatal.


Thanks for pointing that out - I learned something new today. I was aware of the shingles connection with chickenpox, but didn't know that the measles virus could reactivate as encephalitis.

Coming back to your earlier statement that protective antibodies after getting Covid19 only last a few weeks, do you anticipate that this will limit the effectiveness of vaccines? Or are the ways some vaccines protect sufficiently different that that is not a concern?

As far as I am concerned the sooner we have a vaccine that is both safe and effective the better. That seems to be the only way to get back to normal.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Million ( really trillion) dollar question J . Also the statement about neutralizing antibodies is preliminary. Hasn’t been confirmed yet. It’s real typical in medicine to publish a result and for that field of medicine to hold off on accepting it as valid until confirmed elsewhere or analysis of a really large number of individuals. Often an initial result is modified or thrown out entirely.
Classic teaching is that if you can teach memory Tcells to cause you to produce neutralizing antibodies or sometimes mount killer Tcell response against an antigen on the target infectious agent that is preserved (doesn’t mutate) you’re good to go. Still unknown if you can do this and It will work in this instance. Other issue is you don’t want an excessive cytokine response (storm). There was an effective immune mediated treatment for Alzheimer’s. Actually worked very well. Seemed like cure. Problem was it could also produce an diffuse severe encephalitis. Never came to market. Took quite sometime to realize this. It successfully went through phase one and if I recall correctly nearly completed phase two trials before development was aborted. Anytime you mess with the immune system the risk on untended consequences exists. Unfortunately careful means slow.
Once my boat comes back to US waters it’s not likely to leave for further international cruising until the covid thing sorts out to my satisfaction. People need to act in accordance with known science not Fox or CNN news and definitely not in accordance to political motives. Fauci is factual- Trump is not. Fauci talks in paragraphs but is quoted in phrases.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I believe one will be able to see Dr. Fauci's video in the link below, without a subscription. He describes why he is cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will be identified. He also says....



> "....the majority of individuals respond well [to coronavirus] and ultimately clear the coronavirus without serious consequences to one's health. You can get ill mildly or moderately, but a relatively small percentage of people go on to advanced disease and death...."











Fauci ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ About Coronavirus Vaccine


The federal health expert said he believes it is likely that successful vaccine candidates would prove effective ‘within a reasonable period of time’ to fight the novel pathogen.




www.wsj.com


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Of course agree with Fauci. Would note the incidence of sequalae and nature is not known. Not enough time has passed to determine that. He is giving our current knowledge of the acute illness and states “the majority “as regards absence of sequalae To my understanding that’s anything over 50%. More accurate numbers will become available in the future. In my personal sphere of associates there’s been quite a spectrum in how people feel after the acute illness. My personal information carries no weight scientifically but we do know there’s a increased risk of cardio/cerebrovascular events and reports of cognitive as well pulmonary reserve decline of significance in some people after the infection is cleared. His language is quite careful he is cautiously optimistic and qualifies stating “in a reasonable period of time”. What’s reasonable? A year? Two years? 6 months? 3 months? Tomorrow? He says nothing about the time frame when there be enough and a mechanism that you can actually get the vaccine. 
My read is with several vaccines already showing a neutralizing antibody response a time frame of a year to 18 months can be hoped for when you can be vaccinated but I wouldn’t go to Vegas and bet on it yet. Here we do need leadership in the political as well as industrial and legal spheres as well as a mechanism to underwrite the finances of vaccinating a huge number of people. Be great if we as a country complete all the prep work before a safe and efficacious vaccine comes out. As previously stated there’s two parts to this-get a good vaccine is first but getting it into people is second and of equal importance. That would definitely shorten the time line if we have our act together. It’s here that my concern lies. Good scientists produce good science. Industry sees an opportunity to make huge money. Don’t worry about them. It the rest of it that’s the concern.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

@outbound , I've started hearing comments that COVID-19 may not be a repiratory disease, but a blood disease that attacks virtually all organs, and just happens to show up in respiratory system first for most people. Are you starting to see it that way?


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

According to NPR, the federal government is indeed granting funding to standup several vaccines/treatments for manufacturer at once. At risk manufacturing they call it, as the drug may not prove effective, but they want it ready, if it proves to be.

NPR science correspondent Joe Palca is also optimistic.









Federal Government To Invest Over $2 Billion Into Coronavirus Vaccine Development


The federal government on Tuesday announced grants for the development and manufacture of vaccines and treatments for COVID-19 totaling over $2 billion.




www.npr.org


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Had more opportunity to read about cove Moderna trial. Seems it was a phase one. Numbers are quite good. Seems a s decent study design so accept it passed with flying colors. Given it’s being done with the feds money the plan is likely similar to the tPA development and release and population education and dispersal into general clinical use that I was involved in. The NIH did tPA (now in general use for stroke) just right so I’m much more optimistic this morning. Furthermore the fed/Moderna group is planning ahead appropriately so drug delivery in suitable numbers should not be an obstacle. they're saying a year if all goes well. That’s sounds about right as well. Although this is definitely good news passing a trial with very small numbers unfortunately doesn’t predict ultimate success . Still, best news yet.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

TF that’s been my and the general understanding for quite some time now. With that understanding you can see why there’s an increased occurrence of M.I., stroke, liver, lung and kidney damage.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

TakeFive said:


> @outbound , I've started hearing comments that COVID-19 may not be a repiratory disease, but a blood disease that attacks virtually all organs, and just happens to show up in respiratory system first for most people. Are you starting to see it that way?


I've read this differently, but Out will have a professional understanding. Covid-19 is the disease created by the virus SARS-Cov-2. That Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. The key words is syndrome. While this is a respiratory disease the syndrome create inflammation throughout the system.

Many unique attributes to the disease itself, but the concepts around coronavirus and SARS is known.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Would further add the downside to the cove/Moderna vaccine. It takes two doses. About half of people did have some level of side effects. That will make compliance a difficult sell. Some people will refuse from the get go. Some will do the first dose but not the second if they don’t want to face possible side effect risk. As with any infectious disease if insufficient numbers vaccinate the disease remains endemic never going away. Would note in a prior post here I pointed out the difficulties with mRNA vaccines as regards side effects. Still hoping a different vaccine becomes available. 
Just about all viruses have a predilection for one or more organ systems or even one group of type of cells. Just about all viruses can production odd ball effects. Shingles is usually a pain syndrome in a peripheral nerve but can effect the facial cranial nerve. If so it can produce enough inflammation around the carotid artery where it pierces the skull as to produce stroke. Or it can effect the eighth cranial nerve causing marked imbalance.The flu strain of 1918 caused a tragic Parkinsonian syndrome in a significant group of people. In that group some had no significant respiratory complaints as part of the syndrome. So more respiratory complaints are more likely with 19 but it’s a syndrome effecting potentially everything. What is effected more severely varies with lungs leading the list. In short you get covid. You then have menu of what clinical symptoms and what the severity of those symptoms will be.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

At best, we don’t know the odds of severe disease morbidity, post infection. I’m not reading anywhere that it’s expected to be large. Fauci said it was a “relatively small percentage“. That might still mean 10% and I’m not downplaying the impact. Sometimes, it reads just the opposite, like everyone will have these long term impacts.

To date, I personally know 6 people that have been infected. One died in his 70s. He was the husband of someone I am acquainted with, so I do not know of co-morbidities, other than age. 4 had symptoms, from very mild to “worst 11 days of his life” and recovered. The worst systems were with a very obese friend (Estimate 5’10” and 350-400 lbs). No report of ongoing impact on any. One never knew he had it (relative mid-50s in NYC area). He went for an antibody test and was told he had a “high number“ of antibodies. I don’t know what high means.

The point is, it’s all over the map. However, as Dr Fauci says, a relatively small percentage really get hurt. We need to get that lower, but we don’t need to get it to zero, nor do we need to prevent anyone from being mildly or moderately symptomatic for things to reopen. It will take a while to meet the minimums here, but I remain optimistic.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

I know of no one who has C19 illness or who died. I know someone who tested positive and is asymptomatic.


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## MacBlaze (Jan 18, 2016)

Russian said:


> You may want to cross out the Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin - these came down at the fall of Soviet Union back in 1991. As someone from that era and from the Motherland, I can assure you there are NO standing monuments of these damned commie propagators anywhere in Russia or Ukraine. There's a mummy of Lenin still laying at Red Square mausoleum for tourist amusement though.


 Don't know about Lenin, but Marx is alive and well in other parts of the world.


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## Pegu club (Jun 10, 2012)

As stated earlier in this thread, when don don and his lackeys in Congress are voted out, life will start to return to something we all recognize, then and only then will there be a chance to reverse the current trends. Until such time this situation will only get worse, buckle up America, it’s gonna be quite the ride. 

Fair winds,


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

SanderO said:


> I know of no one who has C19 illness or who died. I know someone who tested positive and is asymptomatic.


My sister who lives in Ridgefield Connecticut got COVID 19 , was hospitalized for 22 days at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester. She was bornthere during my father surgical residency and has been treated there for some pretty serious comorbidities.

she is back home lucky yo still be with us♥


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

SanderO said:


> I know of no one who has C19 illness or who died. I know someone who tested positive and is asymptomatic.


(First time I've tried to quote, odd wayof doing it)

Sander,

I have the same experience. I ask people I know well enough if they know of anyone. Only once did I get a yes, he knew 2 folks who had died. And my ex-Wife claims to have had it (typical) and her husband was hospitalized. But I talk to very few people. My son is a corrections officer who part times at a hospital. He sees it at the hospital, but not the jail.

Not trying to make a point, just sharing my experience.

When I review all I hear and the data I see about this disease I am mystified. I have no clear conclusions but see some weird trends. And yet so many folks have such strong opinions.

main event we are reclusive by nature Common recommended practices, other than masks, reflect our normal life. So I'm not overly impacted. I'm in a watch and see more, very skeptical of everything.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

hpeer said:


> (First time I've tried to quote, odd wayof doing it)
> 
> Sander,
> 
> ...


At my (our) ages we don't have the sort of social lives many younger people do. Most of our interactions are with colleges at work (wife), neighbors, and people we meet when shopping (mostly for groceries).... and the grand kids and their parents. I have been working from home for years and have very little and increasingly so... face to face work contacts. Lock in was not very different from my normal routine. Wifey works in a health clinic and she has brought home some sad stories.

I realize how horrible C19 is. Yet I am foggy on the statistics. Hopefully someone like @outbound can help.

So we are a nation of 330,000,000 people and have typically 2,800,000 deaths per year.

So this year we have a pandemic which has claimed 135,000 people in 6 months... Let's say it will be 250,000 in one year. Lot of people. However many of those who died were quite old and did not have many years left... so they had their lives cut short perhaps by a few years.

So clearly C19 has spiked up the "death rate".... but it appears to be a less than 10% spike. The horror is death for people who were young and had many years to live. What is the age distribution of people dying from C19? Are we getting a somewhat distorted view of this? People, young and old are dying from all sorts of causes... accidents, illness, cancer etc. Cancer kills almost 700,000 people / yr. Almost 40,000 from auto accidents.

My sense is that we don't have good means to knock this virus out and avoidance is the only thing we have at the moment and that is not much and really impacts the fabric of society.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I have no idea what Trump thinks he’s doing with the statistics, but they are amply available. I know I’ve posted NYC‘s link, which the Feds don’t control.

Covid, like so many issues, is very real, but some grossly exaggerate. The worst do it for political purposes. The relatively few that died are tragic and should be protected. To make that point, some make it sound even worse than it is. As I’ve said many times, this is remarkably counterproductive. People, in general, are smarter than given credit. They can tell when someone’s view is biased, so tune out their input. Or worse, start taking an equal and opposite exaggerated stance, perhaps subconsciously trying to meet in the realistic middle. It happens on climate, economics, and now Covid.


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Honestly, when I heard about this in January with the focus on what was going on in China I expected there to be more deaths. I made a mental list of about 6 relatives I felt wouldn't make it through the situation. As stated above when .govs and other organizations ring the "it's the end of the world" bell all the time for every event it opens the situation up to a lot of speculation of the real situation and affects. In the US this seems to really polarize the commoners, and no one listens to an opposing view even in moderation. 

We have lost over 100 businesses in Key West to date, with many of the working class moving out. Only 6 deaths, 700+ confirmed cases (we're not told how many have recovered), and 20 people in the hospital in all the Keys from Covid.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Posting crude numbers are meaningless. Both incidence and prevalence should be thought of as # per #. e.g. X per 100,000 or Y per thousand. To assess risk of anything you need a denominator and numerator. In the lay literature only the numerator is often given and this is often misleading. The John Hopkins site was good as well as the CDC although that lagged time wise. WHO does give a crude world view of things. Basic realities which seem reliable are
US death rate per confirmed case is unusually high compared up other first world countries.
Duration of US “first wave” is unusually high(and it remains ongoing) compared to peer countries.
Rate of positive test per 1000 tested remains high which confirms continued US pandemic is ongoing . This is valid regardless of numbers tested. In fact if you increase testing successfully then percentage of positive tests should fall as more non infected people are tested. Symptomatic or exposed people are more likely to be tested and more likely to be positive than the general population. 
as pointed out by Fauci and others in the absence of a coordinated national response we can expect covid to remain endemic with where the hotspots are to wander about the country.
Over time you would expect a culling effect and death rates to fall. High risk people would die at a higher rate then general population so would make up less of a percentage of the total population. This has yet to occur in available statistics to my knowledge. Perhaps due to inadequate numbers. it might take the death of 10% of 360m or about 35 million deaths. Or the effect of no risk people’s dying as well (even at a lower incidence) attenuates the culling effect.
One of the reasons I keep stressing morbidity is that it’s not death that is the major economic risk. Take even a small percentage incapacitated from working for even a few weeks and the economic impact is huge. You’ve experienced this every time you go to the supermarket since this started. Indentured servitude regardless of how it’s implemented is not the solution. Complete and total compliance in hotspots and mitigation measures at the work place and transportation to the workplace is.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

It is not exaggerating to say that the US has dramatically underperformed other first-world countries in containing the virus. Peer countries got their numbers under control, and are therefore able to reopen in a sustainable manner. Our country has some places that did this too, and other places that reopened irresponsibly. This will lead to states closing their borders from each other, with dire economic consequences. The numbers are clear, and hopefully will continue to be clear.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

People are so likely to think about their immediate area and their immediate close contacts in terms of the immediate past. That’s human nature. Perfect example is post#183.
He is absolutely right. Assuming his numbers he is at low risk. Impact on his immediate surrounds is medically low but economically high. Seems totally unfair and illogical to raise a ruckus that just hurts him and his cummunifty.
This is yet another reflection our not implementing public heath measures in a coordinated way at all levels. A global plan at a national level still needs to be done. Then each state, county, municipality needs to follow the global plan. A patchwork plan is just cumbersome.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Some good news.









5 vacation destinations opening their borders to Americans this summer


These dreamy destinations are welcoming visitors – albeit with conditions.




www.foxnews.com


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

SanderO said:


> So clearly C19 has spiked up the "death rate".... but it appears to be a less than 10% spike. The horror is death for people who were young and had many years to live. What is the age distribution of people dying from C19? Are we getting a somewhat distorted view of this? People, young and old are dying from all sorts of causes... accidents, illness, cancer etc. Cancer kills almost 700,000 people / yr. Almost 40,000 from auto accidents.


From what I've been reading there are consequences from C-19 that that are just becoming known to the medical communities and these may affect the younger folks who get the virus for the rest of their lives. I believe it is way too soon in the lifespan of this virus to just blithely accept getting the virus just because the immediate consequences of the original infection won't be much more than the normal flu. Never mind spreading it to other, more at risk people.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

outbound said:


> People are so likely to think about their immediate area and their immediate close contacts in terms of the immediate past. That's human nature. Perfect example is post#183.
> He is absolutely right. Assuming his numbers he is at low risk. Impact on his immediate surrounds is medically low but economically high. Seems totally unfair and illogical to raise a ruckus that just hurts him and his cummunifty.
> This is yet another reflection our not implementing public heath measures in a coordinated way at all levels. A global plan at a national level still needs to be done. Then each state, county, municipality needs to follow the global plan. A patchwork plan is just cumbersome.


But the reason his numbers are so low and that the virus seems under control is because he lives somewhere with one road in and I believe they stopped entry for all but residents. Had they kept it open and had the influx of people necessary to keep all those businesses open, I'm sure the numbers would be quite different.


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Capta
Key West is definitely unique in it's situation, just like you described. Similar to other isolated tourist locations (Hawai'i and Carribean Islands for example). On the topic of this thread I don't know that any of these places can afford to stay shut for the entirety of the event (which is the only surefire way to keep the numbers low). Business death and job loss is a short term financial issue. Long term property asset devaluation coupled with raising property taxes (the .gov is gonna get their money one way or the other) are going to hit those crying for us to be locked down again in the following years. 

The point of my original post was that I expected a lot more death when this first started in January than what I'm thinking we will experience.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Yes that accounts for his numbers, but just because it hasn’t infiltrated his “bubble” doesn’t mean it won’t. All it takes is one person with Covid ANYWHERE to start the chain reaction of exponential spread. Anyone who thinks they are immune from that happening wherever they are are just fooling themselves. Those who don’t heed the science of the infection in other areas and think it won’t happen to them because they are special are only fooling themselves. The virus will continue to spread, even across artificial borders and 14 day quarantine until there is a virtual lockdown again . Even a vaccine will not prevent spread initially.

Those who bask in the security of living somewhere they haven’t been infected are foolish to think they have some super protection from it happening. Those who think their age or lack of co morbidity makes them immune from being affected and infected with far reaching effects but not death are just fooling themselves. Those who think their personal rights are being abridged by wearing a mask should think how their rights will be abridged when the government locks their area down to prevent their infected epicenter from infecting other areas with low rates.

voluntary quarantine being replaced with MANDATORY enforced quarantine which has saved other countries. Or are we just going to let everyone get it in some Darwinesqe scenario and only the youngest and the fittest survive and “cull the herd”. The younger people aren’t worried, thus they don’t wear masks or socially distance, as they won’t die. Some call this the “boomer remover” , then they jump in the lake with all their friends. The only appeal to them is that their action may kill their grandparents.

Those of us over 55 with potential for death are the ones worried. I don’t expect we will change the young’s mindset, no matter what law or the / government CDC enacts. The solution is to minimize the effects until a vaccine. Until it affects them individually they won’t change the way they react.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

dwedeking said:


> The point of my original post was that I expected a lot more death when this first started in January than what I'm thinking we will experience.


I was actually on the other side of the fence in January, thinking (yeah, OK, very naively) that the US, being a rich, 1st world country with a decent medical system, could contain and keep the death rate lower.
I think when they have to start putting the dead in refrigerated trailers, first in NY, then Texas and Arizona, then one can safely say the death rate is way more than expected or as a result of the annual flu.
But, as I posted above, the death rate may not be the most significant factor from this virus. Time will tell.


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Chef, 
I'm not sure if your rant was targeted at me or not. I never stated my position on wearing a mask or not. In reality this pandemic has had little affect to my day-to-day life except for my job. But that is because I choose to self isolate and stay away from crowds normally. The only thing I've changed is a 40% cut in pay (same hours) and I don't go out for my Saturday morning breakfast anymore. 

Life is a game of percentages. Every step of the way you evaluate the risk vs the reward. You make it sound like this is the Black Plague or Ebola (with added infection rate). It makes sense to take precautions based on logic and risk/reward analysis. We've weathered other pandemics since the Spanish Flu with no where near the economic carnage that has happened this year (and will continue to happen for years). Looking at Risk/Reward and the numbers we see with this disease I wonder why those in the high risk group and on a fixed income don't isolate. I'm not in the high risk group yet (got a couple of years to go, lost my weight and got my diabetes to a managed state) but I'd isolate if my boat was finished and I had the cruising kitty stocked (Nov 2021 was my leave date). 

Can young people get sick? Yes. Can they have long term issues? Yes. But those are a small percentage and not the norm. The percentage of renters not making rent payments is higher that the number of sick. We've lost 370 jobs for every death from Covid. Those jobs are with the low risk (for the most part) groups.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> Those who bask in the security of living somewhere they haven't been infected are foolish to think they have some super protection from it happening.


*And here it the validation of this point;*
Three Trinidadians test positive for Covid-19 after departing Grenada Health Minister, Nickolas Steele, has confirmed that 3 of the individuals who left Grenada on a repatriation flight for Trinidad on Wednesday with Caribbean Airlines, have tested positive for Covid-19.

"Yes, it's true, we have been in contact with Trinidad and we have already begun our contact tracing for the 3. It's a massive undertaking but we have no choice," Steele said on Friday.
Health officials have made it a policy not to disclose names nor the location of positive cases, but when asked if any of the 3 were among the students who left or among the other persons on the flight, the Health Minister said that they were not students. "These were people who were at various locations all over Grenada. They were here since March and so we can only conclude that they most likely got it from an unknown asymptomatic person," he said.
One of the 23 laboratory-confirmed cases in Grenada was an asymptomatic individual who came from the USA in March. *That person was diagnosed almost one month after the island had shut down its airport to commercial passenger traffic.*
Steele said that the diagnosing of the 3 who are presently in quarantine in Trinidad is a reminder that there are asymptomatic persons walking around and are most likely spreading the virus to other persons. "And it's for this reason we are stressing and urging every citizen to wear a mask or an appropriate face covering when in public as well as abide with the social distancing and other health protocols," he said.
*"We are Covid-19 free presently because we have not had a laboratory confirmed case since May,* but we are very conscious that this virus is out there in the world," Steele said as he made a plea for persons who are display flu-like symptoms to seek medical attention.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

dwedeking said:


> We've lost 370 jobs for every death from Covid. Those jobs are with the low risk (for the most part) groups.


But again, if the Keys hadn't closed, your numbers wouldn't be anything like that. There is a trade off especially in the Keys, which has an inordinate number of retirees who would rather not be exposed to the virus.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

As Lindsey Graham said in March, “There is no functioning economy unless we control the virus.”

States and localities that reopened prematurely are learning this the hard way. Because the US failed to contain it and bet that it would “miraculously disappear”, economic damage will be unavoidable. Whether the damage will be permanent will depend on our resolve to forego immediate gratification and start to follow CDC’s guidelines.


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## dwedeking (Jan 28, 2007)

Capta, 
Sorry for my lack of clarity. That's 370 jobs per death in the US as a whole (last saw this quoted in an article last week so maybe outdated). We (as a society) have papered that over with the influx of free money (both additional unemployment and propping the stock market up) but my opinion is you're really going to see that economic pain start to show around the first of the year. 

In my opinion, those retirees are the easiest to protect by just having them stay home. The working class would be better able to serve them (paying taxes, paying rents on their apartments and houses owned by some of these retirees, providing services) by going back to living. 

Isolation only works if there is herd immunity or vaccine in the future unless you plan on staying isolated forever (and we weren't really isolated as workers came down from Miami to deliver goods and work on construction jobs).


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Medical anti microbial drugs are a relatively recent discovery. Epidemics and in fact pandemics( flu, cholera, plague, Ebola etc.) have been controlled with simple infectious disease measures( in past burn bedding, clothes, bodies, soap and personal hygiene, clean water, appropriately disposal of human/animal waste) and simple public health measures. As stated here multiple times herd immunity is likely never to be seen. Due to non compliance and unknown efficacy of vaccines vaccines alone will not get us below Ro and cause the pandemic to subside. Neither will work without appropriate public health measures. No magic bullet.sorry


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

dwedeking said:


> Chef,
> I'm not sure if your rant was targeted at me or not. I never stated my position on wearing a mask or not. In reality this pandemic has had little affect to my day-to-day life except for my job. But that is because I choose to self isolate and stay away from crowds normally. The only thing I've changed is a 40% cut in pay (same hours) and I don't go out for my Saturday morning breakfast anymore.
> 
> Life is a game of percentages. Every step of the way you evaluate the risk vs the reward. You make it sound like this is the Black Plague or Ebola (with added infection rate). It makes sense to take precautions based on logic and risk/reward analysis. We've weathered other pandemics since the Spanish Flu with no where near the economic carnage that has happened this year (and will continue to happen for years). Looking at Risk/Reward and the numbers we see with this disease I wonder why those in the high risk group and on a fixed income don't isolate. I'm not in the high risk group yet (got a couple of years to go, lost my weight and got my diabetes to a managed state) but I'd isolate if my boat was finished and I had the cruising kitty stocked (Nov 2021 was my leave date).
> ...


it wasn't a rant....it was an opinion. If that's what you call people who don't quite swallow what you write as ranting and choose to use incendiary language like that, you probably won't get a good conversation going.

you fail to realize things as you MINIMIZED the spreading of CV 19. Comparing it to the Spanish Flu of 1918 doesn't make sense. The world has changed since then. The ability to isolate has changed. The interconnectivr nature of people traveling has changed. Every SCIENTIFIC opinion states the transmission rate exceeds the norms.

Also shortsighted is this argument is that we should balance an economy on people's lives. What kind of economy will exist when people don't feel it's not safe to buy goods, travel, send their kids to school. Lastly not safe to work.

Again you failed to understand the issue completely. It's not just who survives the disease. It's that the disease is easily spread to severely affected groups By those who are not in danger. Pretending CV19 is normal and no worse than other viruses by your facts, pretending it doesn't exist, pretending that the actions of the young fit and able does not affect the groups endangered by it is ludicrous. You cant have a segments staying behind closed doors and others cRrying on going to bars and beaches.

The rallying cry that saving others lives is affecting the economy is a cold blooded calculating way to look at this basing decisions on money and greed.

we will never have a robust economy with the virus nipping at our heels. That is a fact not disputed.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> Then each state, county, municipality needs to follow the global plan. A patchwork plan is just cumbersome.


You're going to need to start advocating the elimination of the republic itself. No State is beholden to the Federal Govt, unless specified in the constitution. Add politics (ie different party: Governor and President) and the odds are it will be a pissing match, no matter the topic. Evidence abounds.

Not that you suggested otherwise, but there are both blue and red states screwing this up.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

outbound said:


> ....Due to non compliance and unknown efficacy of vaccines vaccines alone will not get us below Ro and cause the pandemic to subside.....


My dusty collegiate logic class memory would suggest an "unknown" premise can not allow for a certain conclusion.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

dwedeking said:


> I don't know that any of these places can afford to stay shut for the entirety of the event (which is the only surefire way to keep the numbers low).


(The following is not directed at you in any way - just keying off the above quote because it represents the viewpoint of most people in the US.)

This viewpoint is seriously flawed, and proven so by how much of the rest of the developed world has dealt with the virus. This thing has been sold to us as an "either/or" proposition by the current federal government executive branch, with support from the state governments politically aligned with it.

However, this is not a either/or situation, it is a complete and utter lack of leadership at these levels, along with a lack of imagination, and a lack of understanding of basic science.

The reality is that commerce can easily be put in place, with the virus controlled, if only we had an actual plan involving widespread rapid testing (we do NOT have this no matter what you are being told), coupled with robust contact tracing (of which we have ZERO ongoing, with nobody interested in doing any). This is almost criminal, and definitely sowed the seeds of our current economic position, as well as our coming economic reckoning.

An example: South Korea tests fast and robustly traces all positive cases to achieve the ability to publish real-time maps of individual offices in high-rise buildings with COVID hotspots. They publish street-level maps of the entire country of COVID outbreaks, and physically and economically isolate just those highly specific hotspots that flare up. They have never had to shut down their entire economy, even at the worst of their outbreak. Shut downs take the form of individual businesses, or possibly neighborhoods, but the national economy bangs along at high pace. Pretty much every single other developed nation is now doing the same, with much better economic results than the US.

This is very important: The US is the ONLY developed nation who has decided to just let things ride with absolutely no plan of attack, no keying off science, a lot of bullcrap from the top of the government, and a childish, mistaken belief from the top that this virus can be simply bullied into submission by nasty tweets, passing blame around, outright denial, and claims of victory.

We too could have a highly functional economy now, living with a controlled long-term virus, and our people allowed to enter other similarly operating and controlled countries, but this takes a determination, work ethic, innovation, and sacrifice that the US populace no longer seems to be able to rise to.

The greatest generation will not be us.

Mark


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

I was in the


dwedeking said:


> Isolation only works if there is herd immunity or vaccine in the future unless you plan on staying isolated forever (and we weren't really isolated as workers came down from Miami to deliver goods and work on construction jobs).


 Nearly every highly developed industrial nation has dealt with the issue through public health measures.

I am a big fan of Florida, especially south Florida and the keys. I was in the keys when things started to go down hill. Our prime minister issued a statement requesting all Canadians to return home immediately around the 18th of March or so.

I departed the keys and travelled across 8 states before arriving home and being quarantined in my home for 14 days.

I can say from first hand observation the situation in much of the US was very different from the situation in the Keys.

Monroe county has something like 700-800 cases of Covid, but Miami-Dade, right next door has 80 000.

Florida is experiencing something like 10 000 new cases a day. Ontario, which had strict measures in place for about 2 months is now getting around 100-200 cases a day.

Pblic health measures work.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Arcb said:


> Florida is experiencing something like 10 000 new cases a day.


Dude, it was 22,690 yesterday. 10,000 were the good old days.

Mark


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Ok M let’s run the numbers
population 330m
number without valid medical reason to not vaccinate 300m
number likely to be non compliant 60-120m
efficacy of vaccine 60-90% (unknown at present but doesn’t impact even if 90%. 90% upper limit is chosen due to % where vaccine was rendered ineffectual for a variety of reasons when having a 100% effective vaccine in a controlled setting).
R of 2 if no public health measures.
need 60-70% of population to have adequate levels (titres) of neutralizing antibodies for long enough that R falls. (Neutralizing antibody can come from prior infection or vaccine).

so even without the ability to give hard numbers (actual R, vaccine efficacy, rate of compliance, )and paint the most favorable situation a vaccine by itself just doesn’t cut it. To state it again even in the presence of a vaccine you need compliance to public health measures. Mark is spot on in post #202. we have spent huge funds already. We have taken a huge hit economically already. We could have had the level of control that other countries currently enjoy already at a fraction of the cost economically and in human suffering and lives if our government (Society) accepted science and proceeded accordingly.

No question without a vaccine you will have flares. But also no question with appropriate testing, contact tracing, isolation of vectors they could be dealt with. No question a vaccine needs to be part of our arsenal. But equally true no question until it arrives and afterwards public health measures are key.


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

outbound said:


> Mark is spot on in post #202. we have spent huge funds already. We have taken a huge hit economically already. We could have had the level of control that other countries currently enjoy already at a fraction of the cost economically and in human suffering and lives if our government (Society) accepted science and proceeded accordingly.


This is what has me so frustrated. We went through all this economic pain over the last 4 months and the lack of political leadership basically wasted it. Europe was able to get it under control. The Northeast was a disaster early but able to get it under control. But half the states had initial low infection rates but didn't do what was necessary and now are facing what the Northeast did in the spring. Crazy.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Out, I'm not arguing against public health measures. I am saying the forecast for the impact of a vaccine still contains assumptions. How would you know the efficacy or the non-compliant at this point? They are part of your math and then your conclusions. You're also ignoring the potential for the vaccine to reduce severe impact, if not fully effective against contagion, like the seasonal flu vaccine is proven. That alone changes everything, if it's the case. Catching the flu, with low risk of death or long term affect, is not going to be tough to deal with.

To be even more blunt, if the vaccine exists and is appropriately determined safe, why would the majority cater to those that refuse to be vaccinated? If we're just speculating, I'd say the elderly are very likely to vaccinate; nursing homes will mandate it, like they do,the seasonal flu vaccine. That alone will have the greatest impact on death rates. Fatality rate among the remaining non-vaccinated population would plummet.

I acknowledge, we do not know many of these variables, but I choose to be positive. No great breakthrough was ever found by those swearing it would never work.



outbound said:


> Ok M let's run the numbers
> population 330m
> number without valid medical reason to not vaccinate 300m
> number likely to be non compliant 60-120m
> ...


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

It will work. I’m very optimistic that an effective vaccine will be available. I’m further optimistic that several will be available. I’m less confident that Modern’s mRNA will be the ultimate answer.
let’s drill down on your statements.
first you seem to only consider mortality. I’ve repetitively pointed out morbidity is equally important. In fact morbidity May be more important as regards economic impact. With any illness be it the flu or a broken hip you consider days missed from work (or school), days in hospital, expense of care, long term disability. You continue to seem to not think that way. Doing so may change your perspective.
you continue to fail to understand at all levels an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Flu sgays home from work/school (Isolates), covers their cough in their elbow, disposes their snot rags appropriately. Smart people don’t leave things on the staircase, have nonskid under their rugs, avoid trip obstacles in rooms. Appropriate behavior to limit flu and broken hips is so ingrained and non political it’s is the societal norm. That’s public health successes but they still occur. Public health measures for C19 is not being followed.
unfortunately the past to some measure predicts the future. My assumed compliance number is what public health is using in modeling for a reason. This is optimistic. Look what occurred with measles in liberal, progressive NYC. Or rate of vaccine for shingles, flu, pneumonia,, meningitis or any of the existing safe and effective vaccines currently available. No, that assumption of % compliance is well grounded.
your closing statement is a non sequitur. A effective, safe vaccine would definitely be a huge breakthrough. Personally it would lift the restrictions I labor under. Economically it would allow return to work. Medically both morbidity and mortality would fall. It would be huge even with a third of US citizens being non compliant. It would be huge even if only 60% effective.
But just like with flu, pneumonia, meningitis, Ebola, measles, e.coli, shigella,HIV, or any infectious agent public health measures remain key to effect and maintain suppression of what will persist as a endemic risk. We thought we had totally controlled smallpox. We been working at it since Jenner found cowpox as a live vaccine worked . That was in 1798. Now we have an effective smallpox vaccine and have had it longer than the readers here have been alive. There’s still a worry about outbreaks. We had effective Rx for TBc. and malaria for quite some time. They are still major causes of morbidity and mortality. Minnie please expand your analysis. Given the likely future mindset of this country I hold post #205 to be well grounded by known facts.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Minnewaska said:


> ...Catching the flu, with low risk of death *or long term affect*, is not going to be tough to deal with.





outbound said:


> ....first you seem to only consider mortality.


For the life of me, I can't undertake why you keep saying that, when I have to repeatedly shown that's not the case, as in my post above. Feels like you are trying to change what I said.

Further, I posted Dr, Fauci's assessment that long term adverse effects were a relatively low percentage, which he combined with death in his statement.



> .........you continue to fail to understand at all levels an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure......


Would you quote the portion of any of my posts above that drew you to this conclusion? It just comes across as mean.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Russian said:


> That's because of all the scared idiots running to get tested despite the fact that most don't have any symptoms, but may have presence of antibodies. Not to mention the travesty by a testing lab in Orlando that overinflated the numbers. Number of people with antiobodies does not equate to number hospitalizations, not even close. Also, those that end up getting hospitalized never get transferred to ICU. Most end up in Med/Tele/Med/Surg units with some going to step-down and progressive care units. Very, very few require endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. Then of course the media gets this fanned out. The truth is always the first victim in any warfare, and this plandemic is no exception.


What about all the cases that don't get reported, those running around spreading it because they don't wear a mask? Personally, I believe no matter how many cases are reported, correctly or not, the actual numbers are significantly higher.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Russian said:


> That's because of all the scared idiots running to get tested despite the fact that most don't show any symptoms, but may have presence of antibodies.


"scared idiots?"

If you have antibodies, you either are infected or have been infected a short time ago. That means you either are, or recently were actively spreading the disease. Don't you think it is a pretty good idea to know about that, for the sake of those people that you are in contact with, or recently were?

Looks like you would rather not know who is spreading the disease, for the sake of "keeping the numbers down." The term 'scared idiot' seems much more fitting to someone who proposes this 'solution.'

Like someone who shouted to his supporters, "When you do testing to that extent, you're going to find more people, you're going to find more cases. So I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down, please.' They test and they test."


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Russian said:


> Robust contact tracing? You're kidding right? Google and Apple wanted to team up to creat just that, an Orwellian dystopia in a form of obligatory contact tracing through firmware updates. Not as long as we have a U.S. Constitution in place and direct means of legal recourse. Ask yourself one question: Do you value temporary safety and security more than freedom? If you do, you deserve neither, to praphrase Ben Franklin.


I sincerely doubt that Ben Franklin envisioned a world wide pandemic when he made that statement. This pandemic is not something created just to rob you of your constitutional rights. It is a unique situation that requires unique measures to get under control. If it isn't controlled through the medically recommended procedures (including contact tracing, which has been shown to work very well in the few countries that have contained this pandemic) then you will have repeated lockdowns and the society will continue to suffer both from the virus and a bad economy.
You are of course free to lose your home, starve to death or expect your government to support you, rather than participate in the medically recommended procedures and see no end in sight to this.


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Russian said:


> Robust contact tracing? You're kidding right? Google and Apple wanted to team up to creat just that, an Orwellian dystopia in a form of obligatory contact tracing through firmware updates. Not as long as we have a U.S. Constitution in place and direct means of legal recourse. Ask yourself one question: Do you value temporary safety and security more than freedom? If you do, you deserve neither, to praphrase Ben Franklin.


Your freedom stops at the point where it endangers the life of others.

If you have TB, you are free to live in a cabin in the woods and do what you want. But you are not free to cough in my face.

If you feel that this is against the U.S. Constitution, good luck with your means of legal recourse. I refer you to this link Confinement in a Facility | Case Management | State TB Prevention & Control Laws | TB Laws & Policies | Resources & Tools | TB | CDC that explains the rules of involuntary confinement of individuals to insure that the public's health is adequately protected.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Is this website being infected with Russian propaganda? I feel like someone is cherry-picking the Constitution and associated quotes to stir dissent and confusion.

We will never control this virus without contact tracing. In some areas, the infection rate may be so high as to render contact tracing impossible. Those areas may pay a tremendous economic price, and they may have to be totally closed off from the areas where the virus is still controllable.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Flu costs millions of dollars. Even after advent of vaccine that continues to be the case. Flu annually takes big numbers out of the work force for a significant amount of days per case. Tamiflu hasn’t changed this much at all. Flu remains a significant cause of death. Please be aware every public health physician and scientist is very concerned about the fall if COVID and flu are active together. This is in large part due to impact economically and to healthcare systems. Death from flu is a relatively low percentage. Long term disability from flu except for 1918 is most unusual. But it continues to be an economic drag. Individuals I know with covid have been in their working years. Most 30-40s. A few who are retired but their ability to avoid exposure is greater. All were out of work for quite some time. 
Number you might want to follow isn’t open ICU beds. That will continue to rise as care plans improve. Nor death rates as your right most aren’t in the work force. Their impact is that dead people don’t buy anything. But you can hope their survivors ,now with extra money, will. But hospitalization is quite relevant as is missed work/school days. There’s a reason those have been followed in the past. Other number is total additional healthcare costs. As this is a new cost and drain on household budgets ultimately. . You can reasonably assume just like hurricanes and marine insurance a bump to average cost of a premium. May be a lag but there will be a bump in the near future. Its ok to compare with some aspects of annual flu but if you do so use the whole data set Please.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Russian said:


> Robust contact tracing? You're kidding right? Google and Apple wanted to team up to creat just that, an Orwellian dystopia in a form of obligatory contact tracing through firmware updates. Not as long as we have a U.S. Constitution in place and direct means of legal recourse. Ask yourself one question: Do you value temporary safety and security more than freedom? If you do, you deserve neither, to praphrase Ben Franklin.


I see. So your proposal for handling this "plandemic" is to do absolutely nothing. No widespread testing, and definitely do not try to understand where an infectious person has been, nor who else have been in contact with them. Just let the disease run its course

This is exactly how the world approached infectious diseases.

In the 1700's.

Maybe we should light incense, say certain prayers, make some effigies, offer a few sacrifices, and find a few people to blame and burn at the stake?

BTW, you do not understand our constitution, and project your opinions on it. You do not have the right to infect other people with a disease, knowingly or unknowingly. You do not have the right to hide where you have been and who you have been in contact with if you have potentially done known, measurable, and described harm.

Mark


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Should explain some background. There’s a ICD coding system. Docs, ERs, and hospitals are pretty good about this as it controls billing. The ICD code and level of service is entered at each encounter. A electronic encounter form is generated at each medical visit. Be it in the ED, at admission and at discharge at a minimum. Statistics are drawn from the medical record and billing forms. It ain’t rocket science. It’s reliable as mistakes mean folks don’t get paid if not done. The information block currently being attempted and done in the past is in part contrived and in part due to inadequate maintenance/updating at a government al level not the healthcare industry.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

Russian said:


> Robust contact tracing? You're kidding right? Google and Apple wanted to team up to creat just that, an Orwellian dystopia in a form of obligatory contact tracing through firmware updates. Not as long as we have a U.S. Constitution in place and direct means of legal recourse. Ask yourself one question: Do you value temporary safety and security more than freedom? If you do, you deserve neither, to praphrase Ben Franklin.


This sentiment is exactly why the future looks bleak for the USA. The fundamental mistrust of the government makes it very difficult to a reasonable percentage of the population to buy into any kind of contact tracing, even though that contact tracing is absolutely the key to getting a handle on the pandemic and reopening the economy sooner. South Korea shut down the virus in their country very quickly with a combination of mask wearing and digital contact tracing via mobile devices.

I don't advocate for allowing Apple and Google to build contact tracing into their operating systems as a mandatory feature, (even though they already do a lot of tracking for commercial purposes). There are plenty of apps being developed that can be voluntarily installed and run on people's phones to provide that data. Different Provinces in Canada are rolling out contact tracing apps, and we trust our government not to use the data they generate for nefarious purposes.

I can't help but think if such an app were to be voluntary in the USA there would be a much lower acceptance rate due to the fundamental distrust of the government. It is ironic considering how much personal information people voluntarily give big corporations who's only motivation is profit and who buy and sell that information as a commodity.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Russian said:


> Testing is completely volitional. If you do, that is entirely your choice. Yes, the scared idiots because they are ignorant and driven by fear, not logic.


If I have reason to suspect that I may be infected and I worry that I infect other people (like my loved ones) and therefore get tested, you call me a 'scared idiot.'

If this is how you tick, we don't have to discuss any more.



Russian said:


> BTW, CDC does not recommend antibody testing, source here


PERFECT example of cherry picking, what TF referred to.

You are not even good at that. From that link: "CDC does not currently recommend using antibody testing as the sole basis for *diagnosis of acute infection*" (bold by me). You know why? Because these tests suffer from large percentages of false negatives. This means they UNDER-report the prevalence of CV-19. So feel free to add a couple thousands additional cases to your numbers that were missed because of false-negative test results.

For the purposes of what we are talking about, understanding prevalence of the disease in the population, just one paragraph later the CDC specifically *endorses* antibody testing:

"Serologic assays for SARS-CoV-2, now broadly available, can play an important role in understanding the transmission dynamic of the virus in the general population and identifying groups at higher risk for infection. Unlike viral direct detection methods, such as nucleic acid amplification or antigen detection tests that can detect acutely infected persons, antibody tests help determine whether the individual being tested was previously infected-even if that person never showed symptoms."


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

The key number for social planning is to know
what percentage of a given population has the disease.
what percentage has had the disease
what percentage has yet to have the disease.
you don’t need to test every last person to get reliable estimates but you do need a very large sample free of bias if your numbers are to mean anything and allow good social policy.
every other industrial nation except the US has done and continues to do this exercise. Every other industrial country has both tested for active presence of the virus (PCR) and prior exposure (antibodies). You need both in large numbers.
russian doesn’t seem to grasp this. Hope above explains why this is the case. The USA has a long extensive history of involuntary quarantine.Also a history of involuntary screening including taking sputum /doing chest X-rays for TBc VDRLs blood draws for marriage licenses . His position is not supported by law, tradition, founding documents nor our past history. We have destroyed property, residences, controlled burials all by governmental seizure and have done involuntary confinement or other involuntary actions to individuals to protect the common good. His position would have no standing even in a conservative court. Government even has the right to involuntarily test you Russian. The legal constructs that apply to food workers are an example. If in the course of your employment or behavior you represent a risk(not even a certainty) you can be tested or confined against your will. Get over it guy. Do the right thing.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

These concepts are politically fraught. Hope it never comes to that. Hope there’s a radical change in gestalt at the federal level and a massive ad campaign in all of media so basic concepts are explained. The daily Fauci presentations were helpful in this regard. He and his colleagues presented information in a non political fashion. Just”it is what it is”.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Wish to congratulate my fellow posters. View this thread as a public health message. Think it very helpful folks like Russian continues to post. Most people are moral. Most people have more than enough intelligence to make good decisions. We all have been misled by others due to their biases or self interest. It’s important to help even one person be aware of the consequences of their decisions. Good on you all.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Russian from your citation


"Individuals being tested for purposes of public health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2"

this is one of the indications for testing noted in the document you referred to. Once again I stated known fact. I've not been cherry picking to support a personal bias. I have plenty of those but feel they should be clearly identified as such or not posted (particularly if posted as fact).

My opinion is the same crap goes on at a federal level. Fauci wanted PPE reserved for frontline workers so asked the public to defer use until knowledge stated they were necessary in the broad population. Once that knowledge became available he stated everyone should mask. Now it's stated he was wrong when in fact he was entirely correct. Cherry picking is one of the worst type of lie. So hard to refute a phrase when a paragraph is required.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Good old Ben spent a lot of time in France. Both in philly, NY and Paris think he ample awareness of epidemics. Few people escaped a brush with smallpox or awareness of a cholera event. As you stated pandemics require enhanced numbers of international travelers and commerce so not prevalent until 1900s except if you only consider Native Americans as the world’s population.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

outbound said:


> Wish to congratulate my fellow posters. View this thread as a public health message. Think it very helpful folks like Russian continues to post. Most people are moral. Most people have more than enough intelligence to make good decisions. We all have been misled by others due to their biases or self interest. It's important to help even one person be aware of the consequences of their decisions. Good on you all.


I think it's incredibly lucky we have a real professional to discuss this with on this forum. Just because we are all sailors does not mean we shouldn't be able to discuss such an important subject. My father was a surgeon who stayed current with all of the medical changes and I miss the "straight info" he used to provide. Thank you for your contributions.


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

I think Russian needs to go volunteer in one of the overwhelmed hospitals in Arizona, Texas or South Florida and then come back and report. Maybe a few days loading bodies into the refrigerated trailers because the morgues are full will change his attitude. 
An increase in positive tests is followed in a few weeks by a increase in hospitalizations and a few weeks later in deaths.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Russian said:


> It is sad that most will willingly accept anything that is forced upon them, some on their knees.


BS. This is simply false. What is at question here is medical science. The extent to which most willingly accept it is based on our trust in the medical experts. Time and again, it has been shown that betting against science is a losing strategy. Just compare the US's infection/hospitalization/fatality numbers vs. any other civilized country. Their economies are recovering better too. Without controlling the virus, there can be no economic recovery.


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## jb cruzan (May 24, 2015)

SchockT said:


> This sentiment is exactly why the future looks bleak for the USA. The fundamental mistrust of the government makes it very difficult to a reasonable percentage of the population to buy into any kind of contact tracing, even though that contact tracing is absolutely the key to getting a handle on the pandemic and reopening the economy sooner. South Korea shut down the virus in their country very quickly with a combination of mask wearing and digital contact tracing via mobile devices.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


Don't believe everything you read. Some mistrust is generally a healthy thing.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

As a Canadian I am increasingly astounded at the politicization of this pandemic in the USA. Of course I am well aware of the political dysfunction that characterizes your republic these days -- who isn't. But the level to which partisans appear willing to sink exceeds any cynical prediction I would ever have made.

Covid-19 is a viral disease. It's not a challenge to the founding principles of your republic, or an insult to your constitution. The solution is well within the grasp of all functioning societies, as is being proven by almost every developed country, and most under or developing ones. Stop whining and complaining and making excuses or pretending it isn't real. 

Or in the parlance of the day, put on your big boy/girl pants and just do it!


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## jb cruzan (May 24, 2015)

SchockT said:


> Personally I am looking forward to exploring Desolation Sound without the hordes of American boats that descend upon the region every summer!


Ah at least honest enough to write your true feelings.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

jb cruzan said:


> Ah at least honest enough to write your true feelings.


SchockT said:
*Personally I am looking forward to exploring Desolation Sound without the hordes of American boats that descend upon the region every summer!*

Maybe honest but a very rude thing to say.

It's ok ......we notice that the Canadian boats who go south down the east coast ( a hell of a lot more than visit Desolation Sound) and stop at AMERICAN ports of call as they work their way to the Caribbean will be continued to be welcomed with hospitality and not the resentment you just expressed. Must be the difference between living in the east coast of Canada where they consider Americans comrades and the west coast Canadians who feel they are invaded by us dirty Americans like you do, or maybe you are the only one who resents American.

So why is it you don't want to sail the water and the beauty of your area with Americans?


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## danvon (Dec 10, 2012)

capta said:


> I think one thing most people forget about wearing a mask is that it keeps those who wear it from touching their face.
> Many (most?) of us have unconscious habits and many of them are hand to face. So a hand that just touched a hand rail, door knob or other frequently handled and potential virus path can transmit the virus to our faces, eyes, nose, mouth or whatever.
> Wearing a mask protects everyone and I can't see any intelligent argument against it.
> I just don't get it.


Those arguing against it are not making intelligent arguments.

They are bleating about "freedom" and incorrectly arguing that, since the mask is to protect themselves, it's their choice as to whether to run the risk. I wonder what this same bunch would say if i insisted on walking around their demonstrations with a couple of guns (surely they are fine with this part) and leaving the safeties off because of, you know, "freedumb"? Sorry if this sounds harsh but a lot of people are dying unnecessarily becase of the anti-mask crowd's total lack of concern for others.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

chef2sail said:


> Maybe honest but a very rude thing to say.





jb cruzan said:


> Ah at least honest enough to write your true feelings.


Come on, he didn't mean it that way. Anyone who has lived in a popular seasonal destination place understands what he meant. I've lived in Mystic, CT where the summer hoards have locals lying low, but when they leave, the place is a quite different experience. Likewise, I've lived in coastal FL where the NY and MI people flood it during the winter, but it is much different as a local when they leave. I've lived in the Caribbean, which becomes a quite different place after the charter season. I'll bet it is the same in Maine. This doesn't mean locals in these places hate the nationalities or home states of the people that visit - it just means that the place is busy, and there is an enjoyable difference when they are not there.

It wasn't the Americans themselves he was noting - it was simply that the place got crowded because Americans are the ones crowding it during season. Like New Yorkers in FL.

Mark


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

colemj said:


> Come on, he didn't mean it that way. Anyone who has lived in a popular seasonal destination place understands what he meant. I've lived in Mystic, CT where the summer hoards have locals lying low, but when they leave, the place is a quite different experience. Likewise, I've lived in coastal FL where the NY and MI people flood it during the winter, but it is much different as a local when they leave. I've lived in the Caribbean, which becomes a quite different place after the charter season. I'll bet it is the same in Maine. This doesn't mean locals in these places hate the nationalities or home states of the people that visit - it just means that the place is busy, and there is an enjoyable difference when they are not there.
> 
> It wasn't the Americans themselves he was noting - it was simply that the place got crowded because Americans are the ones crowding it during season. Like New Yorkers in FL.
> 
> Mark


sorry Mark I disagree he could have called the summer hordes but specifically called the American summer hordes. By itself maybe but is congruent with other numerous critical anti American remarks in other posts he has madeI legitamitly asked what I did. Besides even though I have only sailed the Desolation Sound once and visited a few times, it's hard to imagine that HUGE area overrun with tourists, two at a time in a few sailboats, we are proud and happy to show off our sailing grounds and don't look at others as intruders

Yes Mystic can get crowded, Newport especially. There are many Canadians here in the Annapolis area in the fall passing through. They are always welcome. They are fellow sailors. Some even have accents and speak other languages. I would never describe them as a horde.

sailors are welcome where we sail, no matter what nationality


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Will admit that due to living in “America’s home town-Plymouth Massachusetts “ I had a bumper sticker on my pick up.

they call it tourist season- so when can we shoot them

still I don’t care a rodents behind where you come from nor your demographics. I care about who you are.

Opinion 
strongly suggest reading today’s NYT article “inside trumps failure....” distorted by liberal bias but salient facts are there for review. Classic fight between Birx and Fauci that’s all to commonly seen in academia. Seen this dynamic play out over and over again. Because of the rules of scientific and medical discourse the correct science always wins out. Usually this is done with decorum even when there’s underlying animus and fairly rapidly as third parties will study the contentions until dispute underlaying the issue is laid to rest. However, in this issue self serving politics intervened. Birx is not dumb. She knows the Washington model was wrong and not compatible with known facts. However as recently as yesterday the feds are going to curtail funds for testing. If your house burns down with you in the front yard or you’re in Bequia it doesn’t matter. Your house is still burning. But if you’re in the front yard you can.
unlock it for the fire department, tell them where the flammables are, tell them who is still in the house and where. Between defunding testing, screwing around with reporting protocols, not buying supplies at a national level, not strongly voicing continued need for masks/social distancing the feds are doing nearly everything possible to ensure continuation of maximal economic,social, medical damage from this pandemic. Looks like I’ll need to hold my nose and just vote against the narcissist although I see the progressIves as carrying some danger as well. Biggest determinate is progressives agenda can be modified or even undone with minimal harm. The cult in power is causing irreversible damage and unnecessary deaths.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

chef2sail said:


> SchockT said:
> *Personally I am looking forward to exploring Desolation Sound without the hordes of American boats that descend upon the region every summer!*
> 
> Maybe honest but a very rude thing to say.
> ...


Don't get me wrong, in normal times American boats are welcome. I have had plenty of very positive experiences with American boaters, but in these times of social distancing and avoiding crowds it will be nice to have the area to ourselves. It is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity.

You need to understand that this is not just a few american boats passing through. There are vastly more boats in the US Pacific Northwest than there are north of the border because population density is so much higher down there. Desolation is a premier destination on the west coast. It may be a large area, but it is also very deep...some areas thousands of feet deep, so in peak season anchorages get very crowded.

Is it so terrible that I look forward to being able to enjoy our little piece of paradise in peak season without the usual crowds? I am sorry if you are offended by that sentiment, but it was not intended as a slight against Americans.

This picture is of Prideaux Haven, one of the more popular anchorages, around this time on a normal year. I just spoke to someone who is up there right now, and there are only 6 boats there.









Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## MacBlaze (Jan 18, 2016)

chef2sail said:


> sorry Mark I disagree he could have called the summer hordes but specifically called the American summer hordes. By itself maybe but is congruent with other numerous critical anti American remarks in other posts he has madeI legitamitly asked what I did. Besides even though I have only sailed the Desolation Sound once and visited a few times, it's hard to imagine that HUGE area overrun with tourists, two at a time in a few sailboats, we are proud and happy to show off our sailing grounds and don't look at others as intruders
> 
> Yes Mystic can get crowded, Newport especially. There are many Canadians here in the Annapolis area in the fall passing through. They are always welcome. They are fellow sailors. Some even have accents and speak other languages. I would never describe them as a horde.
> 
> sailors are welcome where we sail, no matter what nationality


Lol. Come summer, American boats outnumber Canadian ones 10:1. On top of that the size of US boats is usually double and predominantly powerboats. The attitude is not so much anti-American as it is pro solitude. I am deeply regretting not being able to get out there and experience Desolation in the summer without sharing Prideaux with 50+ other boats, running generators and roaring around in their big tenders. I've herd reports of Squirrel Cove with only half a dozen boats: there were over 100 last time I was there in summer.

It's why we almost always cruise in the shoulder seasons.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Aw come on don’t hide behind social distancing . You just don’t want American sailors to invade your peace and quiet . You cant enjoy yourself as much when American boats are around. 

To be honest That doesn’t look very crowded. Plenty of room for everyone. Boats look well distanced.if that’s the most crowded anchorage you can find.....sorry I don’t buy it. You’d feel really uncomfortable sailing in the Chesapeake, Long Island Sound , Caribbean.

American hordes were your words. That and your above explanation says you don’t want AMERICAN boats. That and that “ some of my best friends are Americans “ sounding quote.

Hey it’s all good. We will continue to welcome all boats to the Chesapeake whenever they come and from wherever they are from, our Canadian brothers included. We are not exclusionists and welcome diversity and see it as a strength. Wanting to unnecessarily isolate yourself from others, in you case Americans and looking forward to it is not an example that I find in most sailors. Personally I love seeing other sailors enjoying themselves, but I’m not an isolationist. 😃😃😃😃⛵⛵⛵⛵🇺🇸🇨🇦🇺🇸🇨🇦🇺🇸🇨🇦

looking back in history if hordes it was used to define Gengis Kahn, the golden hordes in Russia.......all were negative marauding nomads Who plundered other populations......hardly a positive discription of American sailors

I was just shocked to see that in writing, and now defended. Let’s just move on. 😀


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## MacBlaze (Jan 18, 2016)

chef2sail said:


> To be honest That doesn't look very crowded. Plenty of room for everyone. Boats look well distanced.if that's the most crowded anchorage you can find.....sorry I don't buy it. You'd feel really uncomfortable sailing in the Chesapeake, Long Island Sound , Caribbean.


Here's a pic from the same place in April. You can honestly say you would rather enjoy this gorgeous scenery without tons of other boats? If so we are definitely cruising for different reasons. And yes, I would very likely be uncomfortable in all those "popular" places. I am uncomfortable in the Salish Sea come summer season and keep moving north as the "hordes" (which are, unfortunately for the purposes of this conversation, mostly Americans) show up. Further north in the Broughtons there are still tons of Americans but they are the more adventurous kind and we all get along just fine thank you-away from it all, 3-4 boats to an anchorage.











chef2sail said:


> Hey it's all good. We will continue to welcome all boats to the Chesapeake whenever they come and from wherever they are from, our Canadian brothers included. We are not exclusionists and welcome diversity and see it as a strength. Wanting to unnecessarily isolate yourself from others, in you case Americans and looking forward to it is not an example that I find in most sailors. Personally I love seeing other sailors enjoying themselves, but I'm not an isolationist. ????⛵⛵⛵⛵????????????


Holier than thou much? We all live where we live. No one said Americans weren't welcome (although in other contexts mentioned in this thread it is becoming increasingly so), but this ain't about Social distancing, its about being able to enjoy something in something vaguely resembling its natural state. It's a benefit of our vast territory and small population...sometimes we get to be alone.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

I kinda get the idea if not the phraseology. Almost everywhere I've lived in my adult life has been where others vacation. Hawaii, Tahiti, Skagway AK, Australia's Coral Coast, the Med, the Seychelles, the Canaries, the Caribbean, So Fla and the Keys, Charleston, etc. There's always a sigh of relief when the season is over, but everyone of us living there realizes that without the seasonal visitors, none of us could afford to live there.
The influx of American boats to the southern Canadian PNW must also contribute greatly to the income of the area, lowering taxes on the locals and paying for ample, qualified service personnel, especially in the marine business, who couldn't survive there on the local market.
It is a trade off, but hardly one that one should cause animosity, as the locals have the shoulder seasons (as mentioned above) in the temperate regions and the off season in the tropics to enjoy their home waters. I imagine that a couple of years w/o American boats will cost some Canadians their businesses and that isn't much of a plus when compared to empty anchorages and only Canadian vacationers.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

chef2sail said:


> Aw come on don't hide behind social distancing . You just don't want American sailors to invade your peace and quiet . You cant enjoy yourself as much when American boats are around.
> 
> To be honest That doesn't look very crowded. Plenty of room for everyone. Boats look well distanced.if that's the most crowded anchorage you can find.....sorry I don't buy it. You'd feel really uncomfortable sailing in the Chesapeake, Long Island Sound , Caribbean.
> 
> ...


I said hordes of American boats because the vast majority ARE american boats! If there were boats from other countries I would have said so. If it is the term "hordes" you find offensive I can't help that. It is not an uncommon term around here when referring to large groups of tourists descending upon our city as they do most summers. It has nothing to do with Gengis Khan! I cant help it if that is the imagery that comes into your head with that word.

You say that pic "doesn't look crowded", so you see that is the difference. If that is the case, and anchorages in your waters are that crowded, then you are right, I would not enjoy it. You live in an area of much higher population density than we have here, so your tolerance for crowds would be necessarily much higher than many of us have. We are accustomed to our wide open spaces, and many of us like to enjoy nature while we are away. Another positive benefit of the drastically reduced boat traffic is that sightings of Humpback whales and Orcas in our waters are way up. To me that is another positive thing that could make this summer vacation that much more special.

I am not an "Isolationist" because I am looking at the silver lining of this whole pandemic, which is that we get a rare opportunity to enjoy our cruising destinations without the usual crowds. I felt the same way about our local waterfront park when they shut down the parking lot and boat launch which stopped people from coming to the park from all over the city, and made it a nice, quiet park for locals to enjoy, and drastically reduced the number of jetskis and wakeboard boats tearing around our waters. It made daysailing a much more peaceful experience, and I miss that now that things are almost back to normal. Terribly selfish of me, I know, but there ya go!

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

We’re on the opposite side of this coin. Given I’m a days ride from the canucks on their straight pipe hogs and the Montrealers who like to drive in the middle of the street or the Québécois who scream at you when you can’t understand their absurdly accented distortion of French I’m enjoying their absence. my backyard pond was also wonderful while it was shut to ALL out of towners. The usually tripling Of town traffic is gone. Noise levels quartered. Paddles on local streams and rivers a joy. Litter nearly gone. The animals and birds in the park that surrounds my house flourishing. The only upsetting thing is all the empty storefronts, restaurants and downhearted people I see.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

I think you are right. I am probably more tolerant of people being around than you. It’s not because I live around more it is because I enjoy seeing others sailing too.

I also sail in and area you can anchor pretty much anywhere not just in specific places so you can always isolate yourself.

yes sometimes I go for an isolated spot , but when it’s got more than 6 boats in a huge anchorage I don’t feel like I won’t enjoy myself as much

I don’t have to be isolated to enjoy the scenery or where I am. I also don’t feel that a bustling sailing activity in. Newport Harbor or Annapolis isn’t great to be in the midst of at times.

While you must look for the most isolated spots when you vacation, we like to have the variety of both not just untamed vistas. 
the Chesapeake and Long Island , NE offers both. There are plenty of places to isolate and plenty of historical places with good restaurants and culture to go to.

I felt sad when I took our vacation in May that we saw so very few other sailboats Were out because of CV19. I didn’t feel relieved that the pandemic had cleansed my favorite places of unwanted boats or a specific group/ nationality of people .

I imagine this year we won’t see the usual migration of Canadians headed to the Carribean and Florida for the winter. I guess if I thought as you do it would make me happy to think I had Annapolis, St Micheals , Solomons , Yorktown to myself . Course my already isolated spots have always been isolated and would remain that way whether they migrate through or not.

Maybe I should change my thinking and wish and enjoy them not being here. 


,


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

outbound said:


> We're on the opposite side of this coin. Given I'm a days ride from the canucks on their straight pipe hogs and the Montrealers who like to drive in the middle of the street or the Québécois who scream at you when you can't understand their absurdly accented distortion of French I'm enjoying their absence. my backyard pond was also wonderful while it was shut to ALL out of towners. The usually tripling Of town traffic is gone. Noise levels quartered. Paddles on local streams and rivers a joy. Litter nearly gone. The animals and birds in the park that surrounds my house flourishing. The only upsetting thing is all the empty storefronts, restaurants and downhearted people I see.


is it worth seeing that for the isolation?
Because that's what comes from this grand flourishing peace and quiet, created by the suffering of others.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

chef2sail said:


> I think you are right. I am probably more tolerant of people being around than you. It's not because I live around more it is because I enjoy seeing others sailing too.
> 
> I also sail in and area you can anchor pretty much anywhere not just in specific places so you can always isolate yourself.
> 
> ...


 Maybe the positive outcome of this pandemic and the shutdown of international travel is that everyone can slow down a bit and take the time to appreciate their own areas. Instead of taking their money and flying to distant locations they will stay local and support their own communities.

I don't doubt that the residents of Maui will enjoy a season without the "hordes" of Canadians who flock there every year. (Kihei is referred to by Canadians as the "Canadian Ghetto" because so many of us have vacation homes there!) Certainly the loss of tourist revenue will be felt, just as it will be felt here in BC, but all one can do is make the best of the situation.

Interestingly, around here the used boat market is very busy, particularly on the low end of the market. That means that many locals are turning to boating instead of travelling abroad. Making the best of a bad situation.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

The way I understand from a few of the brokers I’m friends with it lots of people are having to get out of boating because of the financial situation and job losses CV 19 has caused. I know at lest four people who had boat mortgages who could no longer make their payments as they’ve lost jobs and their companies have downsized in one instance and went bankrupt in another. The other two could no longer justify expenditures for luxury item like a boat.

I think it’s way to early to start forecast trends so early in the game about boat sales and then draw assumptions from them. It would be more accurate to just accumulate the data for a while yet as people are very unsettled about their jobs and investments.

As we are on the precipice of retirement we have Consolidated all our monies out of the stock market areas as well as moving retirement funds invested in the market into , low yielding but extremely safe bonds. Next year we are required to start liquidating a certain percentage.

I find it doubtful many are purchasing boats except for bargain hunters. The long term results on the middle class are so uncertain economically so I would be suprised to see buying boats as what people will do. Housing I can purchasing continuing see as it usually can remain constant or even investment, plus you need a place to live.
In the US there is an election coming and investors are not spending because they await the results and COVID has hit the country hard and it’s economic results are not predictable. 

I think where you live in Vancouver area the only way to see anything else is to travel a great distance as very little near of interest is near by. Where I live the opposite is occurring since many vacationing and traveling can be done by car.

we had a condo for years in area of Wailea , Maui, in the shadow of Haleakula which is where got married.
Many people had condos and rented them there and it turned out to be an excellent investment property. It more than paid for itself each year and easily rented because it was In the preferred area to stay in vs noisy areas like Kihei And Kannapali, which had lots of shopping and car traffic. Buying property on Maui can be expensive and for those of us on the east coast of the US rarely is done as the Caribbean is much cheaper. However with travel between countries at risk, those who depended on rentals may be like the charter companies, restricted by the countries government not allowing easy travel. I had it for almost 25 years. We would vacation there every 3 years in the wintertime. The flight was at least 12 hours which was the great deterrent, especially coming back. The pandemic will have a great effect in the US on how people vacation . Many I have talked to this year have cancelled vacations because of distance, worries about being in the midst of a busy spot, travel restrictions, and the general unpredictability of the Covid 19 situation. That won’t change for a while until either leadership is changed or not. That won’t change until a vaccine is started distributing. It would be hard to believe that the uneasiness most are feeling economically for themselves and others, that they will make a large financial decision of not only buying a boat but maintaining and docking it.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

Nothing of interest around Vancouver? I guess it all depends on what it is you are looking for. Trust me there are plenty of things to see and do within driving distance of Vancouver. That might be why tourism is one of our top industries in BC.

I think the economic situation here is quite different. Certainly covid has been an unprecedented upheaval, and no doubt the pain isn't over yet, but there is a lot of cautious optimism these days that the worst MAY be behind us. Housing sales this June out paced June 2019 by around 40%, even though prices have actually gone up. Unemployment, while still not great, is improving steadily. 

Government policies are making sure those that are still out of work still have income to pay their bills and put food on the table. Students who can't find summer work qualify for $1400/month so they don't have to worry about not having tuition money. 

Everything is not rosy by any stretch, but there is a lot more optimism here. Most people don't have to worry about bankruptcy, eviction, or foreclosure. the middle class in particular seems to be doing well, and consumer confidence in the middle class is a big economic driver.

The hot used boat market in our area is another sign of that confidence. Our local marine store owner told me the other day that this year has been his busiest year in many years.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

chef2sail said:


> The way I understand from a few of the brokers I'm friends with it lots of people are having to get out of boating because of the financial situation and job losses CV 19 has caused.
> ......
> I find it doubtful many are purchasing boats except for bargain hunters.


We only know a couple of boat brokers, but they don't have enough inventory for the demand they have. New boat sales are at record highs, particularly the catamarans. Balance, Seawind, and HH are completely sold out for the next 3-5yrs. We sold our previous boat last August and are getting regular calls in the past month asking about it. After telling them it sold, they ask if the new owner would sell and wanted contact info. We have a friend who works at Defender and they can't keep inventory on their shelves, nor ship product fast enough. Defender is at record high sales never seen before. We are ordering a lot of boat stuff now from other places than Defender, and a lot of it is being drop-shipped to us instead of coming from inventory like in the past. A lot of backordering too from Defender and others. At first I thought this was virus-related shipping and inventory delay issues, but in talking with them it is demand outstripping supply.

It is crazy and not at all what I would expect, but I think the reality is not what you describe. I don't understand it, but I think the boat market is currently going gang-busters.

Mark


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Maybe, just maybe, there are too many people where ever you go. 
How do those in India and Bangaladesh and China deal?
Maybe the over crowding alters our senses.
Maybe 7.5 BILLION ain’t such a grand idea.


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

hpeer said:


> Maybe, just maybe, there are too many people where ever you go.
> How do those in India and Bangaladesh and China deal?
> Maybe the over crowding alters our senses.
> Maybe 7.5 BILLION ain't such a grand idea.


Certainly people adapt to living in high density situations adapt to that and are accustomed to it, whereas if you are used to having lots of space you are likely to have an aversion to crowds. When I look at scenes of people being packed onto subway cars it horrifies me! I would be extremely uncomfortable in that situation.

The idea of preferring a less crowded anchorage might be the same thing? If anchoring in crowded anchorages is what you know you are likely more comfortable there. If you are someone who prefers more space, privacy and peace then that same crowded anchorage is less than ideal.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## jb cruzan (May 24, 2015)

hpeer said:


> Maybe, just maybe, there are too many people where ever you go.
> How do those in India and Bangaladesh and China deal?
> Maybe the over crowding alters our senses.
> Maybe 7.5 BILLION ain't such a grand idea.


Great point. Doesn't this world really belong to everyone? Or perhaps I should say, "shouldn't" this whole world belong to everyone? Who is it to claim one area and say it's too busy, go away from here.



SchockT said:


> Certainly people adapt to living in high density situations adapt to that and are accustomed to it, whereas if you are used to having lots of space you are likely to have an aversion to crowds. When I look at scenes of people being packed onto subway cars it horrifies me! I would be extremely uncomfortable in that situation.
> 
> The idea of preferring a less crowded anchorage might be the same thing? If anchoring in crowded anchorages is what you know you are likely more comfortable there. If you are someone who prefers more space, privacy and peace then that same crowded anchorage is less than ideal.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


While folks used to crowded anchorages may be "comfortable" there, it may not be their preference, in fact I'd wager not.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

jb cruzan said:


> Great point. Doesn't this world really belong to everyone? Or perhaps I should say, "shouldn't" this whole world belong to everyone? Who is it to claim one area and say it's too busy, go away from here.
> 
> While folks used to crowded anchorages may be "comfortable" there, it may not be their preference, in fact I'd wager not.


I'm really not sure what he is talking about. I guess he mistakenly envisions Americans as all being packed in subways and anchoring in crowded anchorages. Of course that's extremely uninformed. it's again actually a demeaning characterization. besides not being true....even where I live and sail on the Chesapeake.

Not wanting to share your beautiful anchorage by keep others out or similarly being glad they aren't there because of the tragedy befalling Americans because of our governments handling of COVID. That's not being part of the sailing community. Our government f....this up......Most Americans didn't.

I'm glad he has his place all to himself. I sailed there two years ago to say I had. Desolation Sound is named appropriately. Gloomy , wet, cold, lots of current, lots of motoring . Exceptional scenery but many places in America have that. The people were friendly, mostly all white, but in all my travels through Canada I have found that most usually like and welcome Americans. Personally I like the Seattle area better, but you know I like crowds and packed subways????

It's alright , it's all good. Least we know we will never see him sailing in the Chesapeake or anywhere in America as he is happy where he is and has it all to himself for now.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

So in keeping with the thead Covid has affected the travel of sailboats to Desolation Sound and some Canadians are glad😀


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## SchockT (May 21, 2012)

chef2sail said:


> I'm really not sure what he is talking about. I guess he mistakenly envisions Americans as all being packed in subways and anchoring in crowded anchorages. Of course that's extremely uninformed. it's again actually a demeaning characterization. besides not being true....even where I live and sail on the Chesapeake.
> 
> Not wanting to share your beautiful anchorage by keep others out or similarly being glad they aren't there because of the tragedy befalling Americans because of our governments handling of COVID. That's not being part of the sailing community. Our government f....this up......Most Americans didn't.
> 
> ...


The crowded subway and train comment was in reference to the comment about crowded places like Bangladesh and china! Try to keep up!

Chef you really are trying very hard to take offence to whatever I say.

I will not apologize for looking forward to going cruising without hundreds of foreign boats in our waters. You will all be most welcome to return when this pandemic has passed, but for now we are quite happy to keep our border closed.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

Alrighty. I sail quite a bit in the US, and Canada including Quebec. 

I really don't see a big difference in boating styles.

A few years back I was well inside Canadian waters having some engine problems. Was passed by a bunch of boats but eventually a bass boat with Pensylvania registration stopped and offered us a tow, which we accepted. The Pensylvania Bass boat towed us to open water and I asked him to cut us loose. Which he did, but then he took his day off fishing and shadowed us another 15 miles or so (at about 4 knots) until he was confident we were in a safe anchorage. Awesome. 

I think most Canadian boaters like American boaters just fine. 

I think S was just happy to have a break from the tourist crowds. Just so happens that American boats are prevalent in his area. Don't think there was any kind of anti sentiment there. Those just happen to be the prevalent tourists in the area 

Wife and I know our Florida trip is off for 2021. It's just not going to happen. But, when the C19 cases settle down, we will certainly return to our winter "cruising/camping" grounds in Florida.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

SchockT said:


> The crowded subway and train comment was in reference to the comment about crowded places like Bangladesh and china! Try to keep up!
> 
> Chef you really are trying very hard to take offence to whatever I say.
> 
> ...


That I don't blame you for. We would do the same if it was your country mishandling
But I wouldnt feel good about excluding my friends, by gloating how much more peaceful it was?


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

*Chef you really are trying very hard to take offence to whatever I say.*

Naw. I like you , respect your opinions, and find most of what you post thought provoking and informative
But we can't agree on everything.......people would talk???


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

I am tired of the virus blame game in all this.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Guys I was just goofing and looking for a laugh in my prior post. Think DonL is right. We are such a small group. There’s so many who wish us ill and have the money and inclination to restrict our ability to sail, anchor and explore. You can be negative and harp on the restrictions Covid has placed on us. Or be positive and enjoy the opportunities it has opened.

currently dealing with the nonsense involved with the simple task of launching a boat out of a yard, moving it 40 miles to be put on a ship. Then relaunch from the ship to move it to a berth.
I’m being asked for vaccination lists ( Boat has no one on it during transport)
complete list of all contents (I’m not there to make such a list and such a list would have thousands of lines)
prior clearances of last year ( fortunately saved them in one place so accessible to my manager)
prior crew ( ridiculous as no one on the boat)
all language used is for commercial shipping not a small pleasure craft. 
loading protocols asked for not only for principal dimensions and sling locations but also “center of gravity”. Do you know how to calculate the center of gravity of your boat? I didn't. Especially after adding things like a watermaker and generator and ~1000lbs of tools and spares and drogue and additional sails/spare pumps, rigging etc. 
so had the choice of pissing and moaning or looking at it as a learning experience. Sure is weird dealing with customs on the commercial side and real shipping not just our recreational side. Apparently covid has made this real strict. International handoffs much more regulated and difficult.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Out, 

if I wasn’t up to my ass in redoing 2 heads, fixing windows in our house and getting an incinerating toilet I would gladly volunteer to sail her back with you. We just came back and had a great ride.
Good luck with your efforts. And here’s to wishing you patience.


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## MacBlaze (Jan 18, 2016)

Oh-oh... That's unfortunate.



> *Bahamas closes borders to U.S. tourists after COVID-19 cases spike; others still welcome*


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article244340147.html


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Now following Weather along the planned path of sea steamer which is my transport ship. It just left Guyana. This season was predicted to be more active than usual. That’s turning out to be the case. The waves, invests and TS keep rolling along. Last winter made for some brisk sailing at times and delayed getting together for gams with friends but nothing extraordinary. Still, the recent trend hasn’t been favorable.
over the last week networking find a increasing number of folks are not going back to the Caribbean even after covid issues are resolved. Covid has been a wake up call on just how vulnerable you are when cruising to things out of your control. Kind of sad as these people were active international cruisers. Plans extend beyond the Caribbean and include aborted plans to do the North Atlantic loop and the med. People seem more risk aversive is general. Just hope this dissipates with time. Still, in my very small circle hear about covid “it can happen again with a different bug” and on weather “not like it used to be” whether talking about Sahara dust or shoulder seasons or heavy weather.
Local boat sales are flaming hot. be interesting to to see how many do the world ARC, SDR or Caribbean 1500 this fall. Be interesting to see if caribbean yacht services of all sorts can keep their heads above water if the fall season collapses.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

outbound said:


> Now following Weather along the planned path of sea steamer which is my transport ship. It just left Guyana. This season was predicted to be more active than usual. That's turning out to be the case. The waves, invests and TS keep rolling along. Last winter made for some brisk sailing at times and delayed getting together for gams with friends but nothing extraordinary. Still, the recent trend hasn't been favorable.
> over the last week networking find a increasing number of folks are not going back to the Caribbean even after covid issues are resolved. Covid has been a wake up call on just how vulnerable you are when cruising to things out of your control. Kind of sad as these people were active international cruisers. Plans extend beyond the Caribbean and include aborted plans to do the North Atlantic loop and the med. People seem more risk aversive is general. Just hope this dissipates with time. Still, in my very small circle hear about covid "it can happen again with a different bug" and on weather "not like it used to be" whether talking about Sahara dust or shoulder seasons or heavy weather.
> Local boat sales are flaming hot. be interesting to to see how many do the world ARC, SDR or Caribbean 1500 this fall. Be interesting to see if caribbean yacht services of all sorts can keep their heads above water if the fall season collapses.


I suppose there is more awareness of "uncertainly" and that is a deterrent. My experiences down in the Eastern Caribe in the 90s seems different from what I have been reading on SN. Trades were reliable and I don't recall weather events which threatened sailing. Making the trip north and south from New England has not a piece of cake... but it was something that a well found yacht with a competent crew could handle. I did this trip 15 or 20 times with only one challenging sail... in the Marion Bermuda 1990.... with a full gale in the Gulf Stream YUCK. Checking in and out was not a PITA nor expensive.... I don't recall time limited permits. For sure there was less "development" but there were charter fleets in Antigua, St Martin, Guadaloupe and so on... but I avoided the VIs because of the development I imagined. I met some fabulous sailors from allover... CA, SA, UK, US, Holland and so on. I have very fond memories... Maybe because everything was so carefree and the weather was wonderful. Oh well...


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Who knows what next year will bring. Recall just one year ago what your expectations were, and what happened to them. My motto is to seek maximum flexibility. It still sounds like good advice.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Yup but you can project the future to some degree. Sure prepare for the worse and hope for the best. Personally for a variety of reasons think a lot fewer Americans are going to be sailing internationally for quite some time to come.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

SanderO said:


> I suppose there is more awareness of "uncertainly" and that is a deterrent. My experiences down in the Eastern Caribe in the 90s seems different from what I have been reading on SN. Trades were reliable and I don't recall weather events which threatened sailing. Making the trip north and south from New England has not a piece of cake... but it was something that a well found yacht with a competent crew could handle. I did this trip 15 or 20 times with only one challenging sail... in the Marion Bermuda 1990.... with a full gale in the Gulf Stream YUCK. Checking in and out was not a PITA nor expensive.... I don't recall time limited permits. For sure there was less "development" but there were charter fleets in Antigua, St Martin, Guadaloupe and so on... but I avoided the VIs because of the development I imagined. I met some fabulous sailors from allover... CA, SA, UK, US, Holland and so on. I have very fond memories... Maybe because everything was so carefree and the weather was wonderful. Oh well...


Over 20 years ago...they've invented the internet since then???


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