# Halloween Hurricane



## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

The European (ECMWF), generally considered the most accurate of the major computer models, is showing a Katrina type hurricane hitting the mid Atlantic and New England on or about Halloween.

Sure, it may not happen, the GFS says it goes out to sea. But I think we should all be made aware of the possibility so we can plan how to get ready if it should begin to aim at us. I'm concerned that the possibility is being ignored in case it doesn't happen. OK, I hope it doesn't. But I think we should all make our own decision about considering the problem.

I'm having a hard time typing and listening to the debate. So here is a photo of the model as constructed today. Notice the extremely low central pressure, and just to the west, a trough of arctic cold dropping down from Alaska/Siberia/northern Canada. So the coldest arctic cold meeting the warmest tropical air on our coast:

http://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp140/snowstargazer/Weather/HalloweenHurricane.jpg


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## Sail The World (Sep 25, 2011)

are you talking about that little guy out there???


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Sail The World said:


> are you talking about that little guy out there???


Yes, that is the GFS solution. Hope it's true. I'm merely reporting on the European model, and showing what it shows. Crazy? Probably. Would you like to know that the possibility is there or have someone else decide what you should know? I prefer knowing the possibilities and adjusting so I'm as prepared as possible. I believe that it (tropical depression 19) will be named "Sandy", maybe before the debate is over.

Hey, it's the unpredictable weather, debating it won't change it.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

skygazer said:


> Yes, that is the GFS solution. Hope it's true. I'm merely reporting on the European model, and showing what it shows. Crazy? Probably. Would you like to know that the possibility is there or have someone else decide what you should know? I prefer knowing the possibilities and adjusting so I'm as prepared as possible. I believe that it (tropical depression 19) will be named "Sandy", maybe before the debate is over.
> 
> Hey, it's the unpredictable weather, debating it won't change it.


Sandy and #19 are different systems, and looks like the former definitely bears watching...

Sure hope the folks with the NARC Rally aren't too determined to adhere to an on time departure this year...


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

JonEisberg said:


> Sandy and #19 are different systems, and looks like the former definitely bears watching...


Thank you for that clarification! I'm glossing while trying to follow the debate and now the comments. I just wanted to share the incredible forecast. I didn't believe in last Halloween's snowstorm either.


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## MARC2012 (Mar 17, 2008)

Weather men & politicians ,now there is a tough choice which one to trust.marc


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## Capt-T (Aug 14, 2011)

skygazer... as a Minnesota sailor, I typically don't worry about these hurricanes on the coast. But, as luck would have it, I'm going to be in Boston through Halloween next week. I did check out the ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW website, but it's imagery is a bit larger (all of North America). What site did you get your narrowed down east coast isobars and windspeed images from?


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## CarbonSink62 (Sep 29, 2011)

A less porous border with Canada would keep this a Tropical Storm.

I'm just sayin'.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Capt-T said:


> skygazer... as a Minnesota sailor, I typically don't worry about these hurricanes on the coast. But, as luck would have it, I'm going to be in Boston through Halloween next week. I did check out the ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW website, but it's imagery is a bit larger (all of North America). What site did you get your narrowed down east coast isobars and windspeed images from?


Premium Weather Subscription |Weatherbell Analytics LLC ...it's a paid service. Dr. Ryan Maue has set up a lot of excellent model browsing pages. Here is a free site that might help, has tons of stuff but I don't use it so I'm not sure what they have:

e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL

The deep cold coming down to the west will either drive the storm out to sea, or draw it in. The model runs show it going right over the great lakes, so it could hit your home area also. The cold could also produce another Halloween snowstorm, and even if the main storm goes out to sea it could feed back energy to the cold and cause a nor'easter. Weather Bell has been warning about a Halloween storm for weeks. I didn't believe it, just had one last year.

I pulled my boat on last stormy Friday, didn't like to try to do it and take my mast down in the wind and rain, but even less did I like to wait. I needed to have a good high tide for the pull out, Friday was a new moon tide. By the grace of God the downpours let up when we did the boat work, then started back up as soon as it was on my trailer, with lightning and very high winds all night long

There is a full moon rising on Monday, when the storm is expected to make landfall or to go by, either way causing storm surge on top of a full moon extra high tide - though at least not a lunar perigee which would be even worse. Nevertheless, I wouldn't want my boat short tied to anything, except of course where it is now, in my backyard on a trailer!


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

CarbonSink62 said:


> A less porous border with Canada would keep this a Tropical Storm.
> 
> I'm just sayin'.


Could you explain that, or would it ruin the humor? I don't get your meaning.


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## Tim R. (Mar 23, 2003)

skygazer said:


> Premium Weather Subscription |Weatherbell Analytics LLC ...it's a paid service. Dr. Ryan Maue has set up a lot of excellent model browsing pages. Here is a free site that might help, has tons of stuff but I don't use it so I'm not sure what they have:
> 
> e-WALL : PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL
> 
> ...


So exactly how is it forecast to hit the mid Atlantic, New England and then travel over the great lakes?


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

treilley said:


> So exactly how is it forecast to hit the mid Atlantic, New England and then travel over the great lakes?


These are computer model runs, they show slightly different solutions, and change as conditions change. They show the storm coming up the coast, then swinging in and striking somewhere along the mid Atlantic to New England coast, then at least one model, I forget which, showed it continuing on inland to the great lakes. It would not be a hurricane by then, they break down away from the ocean.

The cold off to the west, coming down from the north, is expected to be a negatively tilted trough, meaning it lies NW to SE, so if the storm rides up the front it could head well inland. This would happen if there is sufficient blocking near Greenland, which is possible with the extra warm North Atlantic water just now (called I think in confusing meteorologic terms "negative NAO" -North Atlantic Oscillation).

I'm not a weather weenie, I hate all the impenetrable acronyms etc. they use to confuse! I just like to know what the possibilities are so I can plan my actions.


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## CarbonSink62 (Sep 29, 2011)

skygazer said:


> Could you explain that, or would it ruin the humor? I don't get your meaning.


Yes and yes. 

An Arctic low from The North could turn this into a snow event. If the Arctic low stayed up north...


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

I think right now you are being a bit of an alarmist. It is prudent to watch for storms, hurricane tracks etc, this one doesnt appear to be anywhere near the eastern US unless and number of doubtful; predictions line up. Fronts ( steering currents) are coming through this area every three days now ( fall weather) which usually shove these storms away from the coast. This opposed to summer when there is frequently little movement and a blocking Bermuda high pressure system

This is not to say that it couldnt happen and it is prudent to keep on the alert,

Tropical Storm Sandy : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

Tropical Storm Sandy Discussion Number 5 
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 23, 2012
the cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better
organized...with a large curved band feature evident over the
eastern and southern portions of the circulation. Using a blend of
SFMR and flight-level wind data from the hurricane hunters...the
current intensity is set to 45 kt. The upper-level outflow is well
defined over the eastern part of the cyclone but is restricted to
the northwest. Given the environment of low shear and high oceanic
heat content...Sandy is likely to strengthen into a hurricane in 12
to 24 hours...and the official forecast is close to the
statistical-dynamical lgem guidance. The interaction of the
circulation of Sandy with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba
should cause some weakening. Afterwards...the dynamical guidance
shows the vertical shear increasing to near 30 kt which should
limit re-intensification. Around day 5...the GFS output suggests
that Sandy will be deriving energy from baroclinic sources...and
the NHC forecast shows the system as Post-tropical by that time. 
Fixes from the aircraft show a north-northeastward motion...or about
020/4. As the mid-level ridge to the north of Sandy gradually
weakens...the tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward to
northward with some increase in forward speed. In around 2-3
days...the track could Bend a little to the left due to the
influence of an upper-level trough just to the west of Sandy. This
is shown most prominently in the 0600 UTC GFS run...which has
shifted westward from its previous solution. The official track
forecast is nudged westward from the previous one in the 48 to 72
hour time frame. This is very close to the latest dynamical track
model consensus...and also similar to the FSU superensemble
prediction.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 23/1500z 13.8n 77.8w 45 kt 50 mph
12h 24/0000z 14.9n 77.6w 55 kt 65 mph
24h 24/1200z 16.9n 77.2w 65 kt 75 mph
36h 25/0000z 18.9n 77.0w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 25/1200z 21.4n 76.8w 60 kt 70 mph...on north coast of Cuba
72h 26/1200z 25.6n 76.5w 60 kt 70 mph
96h 27/1200z 28.5n 74.5w 60 kt 70 mph
120h 28/1200z 31.0n 70.5w 60 kt 70 mph...Post-tropical


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> I think right now you are being a bit of an alarmist.


Then I'm not communicating very clearly, or perhaps you mean the computer model graphic is alarming, which is how I feel and why I posted it. I have not made a forecast, nor indicated that I believe it will happen. Since all the other tropical storms went out to sea I expect this one to follow the pattern. However, upon returning from getting my sailboat out I was shocked to see the graphic I posted at the start of this thread. I wanted others to be aware of the possibility. That is a graphic I never want to see, but I would expect it in Sept. if it was coming, not almost Nov.

I have a paid premium subscription to accuweather. I feel that I should have been made aware that there was a possibility of such a large storm forming and coming my way. It's not like a "partly cloudy" forecast, it's a potential serious storm that even if it comes close, or jump feeds a nor'easter, I want to know. I've been burned numerous times with the type of weathermen who only tell you what model they decide to use, and then we get clobbered by something that was on their screen but they decided we didn't need to know about.

Your long quote from weather underground is a good example of "weather speak". I detest it. Einstein said something like "if you can't explain it to a 7 year old, you don't understand it yourself". Of course, he only dealt in easy to understand subjects. 

The graphic I posted is from the ECMFW which has been shown to be more accurate than the GFS. Our weather services generally follow the GFS blindly, often to the hurt of final users. If you think "weather underground" is giving insights beyond NWS, then you might be interested in comparing this NWS forecast (derived from the GFS) to the one you posted:

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
*NWS* NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT
020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3
DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS
IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.9N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.9N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Me again, I hope it does go out to sea, but I make different decisions when expecting clear weather than I do if a huge storm is lurking nearby. I like to know about the lurkers, thought you might to.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Here is a free site I stumbled across just now, never having seen it before. It discusses the storm from a New England standpoint. I know nothing about the site or it's accuracy, just found it interesting. This is today's (Tuesday) post.

MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS: Tuesday Update: Predictability increases for Sunday to Tuesday time frame, powerful coastal storm still quite possible


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## Sail The World (Sep 25, 2011)

oh youre talking about THIS one... yes it is worth keeping an eye on.









especially with the still very warm SST in that area


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

> Your long quote from weather underground is a good example of "weather speak". I detest it. Einstein said something like "if you can't explain it to a 7 year old, you don't understand it yourself". Of course, he only dealt in easy to understand subjects.-skywalker


Sir your condesending attitude is counterproductive.

Since you are claiming to be such the expert in determining which weather synopsis has the greatest validity and you are so far superior in readuing the "correct" sites I will stand in awe of your ability and stand corrected as who am I to dispute Albert Einstein. I am a mere mortal.

Lets see if you are right. The next two days will tell. If so I humble myself If not I expect the same from you.

Dave


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

When looking at Weather undergrowund I observed the following discussion

NOAA/NWS Models
The National Weather Service produces some of the models used by the National Huricane Center. These models are run by NOAA/NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO). Output images from the NOAA/NWS models can be found through NCEP's Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) interface. Raw data from the models can be found through the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS).

Other model background information

If you look close at the computer models it contains predictions from not just GFS, but also GFLD, NAMS, UKMET, HWRI and BAMM.

While I am glad you have found accuweather to be a good site for you, I have found in my ignorance using weather underground to be helpful for my pedestrian abilities.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> Sir your condesending attitude is counterproductive.
> 
> Since you are claiming to be such the expert in determining which weather synopsis has the greatest validity and you are so far superior in readuing the "correct" sites I will stand in awe of your ability and stand corrected as who am I to dispute Albert Einstein. I am a mere mortal.
> 
> ...


Dave, I'm sorry I offended you. I didn't mean to. I'm not a weather expert, I'm a consumer. I was upset that I hadn't heard about the storm possibility from accuweather, which I pay for and look at every day.

I did not make the judgment that the euro is more accurate than the GFS. That is something I gleaned from charts of accuracy results made by scientists studying computer model results. I imagine you could google it and find that for yourself. I'd post a graph comparing results for a decade, but I'm not sure I have the right to do so.

My reference to Einstein was to describe how I think weather people try to be experts by confusing outsiders with their language. They love impenetrable acronyms. They actually use acronyms which contain the first letter of another acronym. Einstein felt that he could explain his knowledge to a seven year old. I think that is an admirable attitude.

I do not predict that the storm will behave in any certain way. I am not attached to any certain outcome, unless the fact that I would prefer a fizzle counts. I can't be "right" since I have no idea what will happen. I merely wanted others to be aware of the possibility of a significant storm. I don't believe two days will tell. We need almost a week to find out. These storms, as you must have experienced, defy our understanding even when they are right on our doorstep.

I'm fine with using weather underground. My neighbor was a huge fan and contributer. My point was that they get their info from NWS, a paid for by our taxes service. Being a government entity, NWS is forced to primarily use the GFS, which is "our" computer model. They know that the euro is more accurate, it is common knowledge and not my judgement.

I'm not sure how I can be any more clear.

From my point of view it seems that you are shooting the messenger. I don't believe that insulting me or anyone serves the sailing community as well as discussion about the issues. I feel certain that I've seen good posts from you, so I'll just consider this a misunderstanding or a bad night for you, hey, I have them also. No problem.


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

Skygazer,
You Eurotrash weather model obsessing fear monger your! How dare you use those cheese eating surrender monkey's weather model rather than our good ol' made in the USA GFA, or whatever it is called.
Actually, I completely agree with you. This COULD BE a very poorly timed severe weather event for the east coast of the US. I will say that the NWS will revise their forecasts if the European model proves to be more accurate. It is true that most free and paid weather outlets in the US only use the NWS data and weather model prediction services. 
Have you tried looking at, say, the Bermuda weather service? They are quite concerned about the same tropical weather and take it quite seriously. I'm not sure what forecast modeling software they are using but I'd bet it ain't ol' GFSA or whatever its called.
I was planning on hauling our boat anyway but if the worst case does develop then all bets might be off.

Who posted the large graphic that messed with the page width? Eh?


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

CalebD said:


> Skygazer,
> You Eurotrash weather model obsessing fear monger your! How dare you use those cheese eating surrender monkey's weather model rather than our good ol' made in the USA GFA, or whatever it is called.....


Thank you, I was beginning to feel that I could only open mouth and insert foot, and no one could understand what I was saying. I used to imagine I was fairly articulate.

Just to clarify, I do use NWS forecasts, I think it's a great service. I used to also use weather underground, my neigbor was so enthusiastic it was catching. He also ran a weather site for them, so the info for my area came from just across the street. He had a couple of computers that continuously showed weather underground when I was at his home. He kept his boat next to mine on the lake. He recently passed away from cancer and I stopped using W.U., maybe too many memories.

While most models have names like ECMWF or some other mouthful, my favorite model is the "Brazilian Model". Very accurate, and I can't help thinking of red wine and Samba on guitar when I think of her - whoops, I mean that model. Unfortunately, I can't find the English speaking Brazilian model, though I've seen graphics from it.

That graphic messed with my page width also, but the warmth it shows in the north Atlantic has a lot to do with the craziness of Sandy. Hope we change pages pretty quick so I don't have to scroll or shrink the page.

Edit: Oh, we are on a new page, nice and narrow!


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## chucklesR (Sep 17, 2007)

"I'm dreaming of a white halloween,
Just like the one's I used to know"

Nah, doesn't work for me. Everyone turn east and blow as hard as you can.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Looking at the 564 mb upper level lows, it seems that the track of this storm depends on the movement and location of those two cold "barriers. It's not surprising that the computer models disagree. In any case, the boundary between Sandy and that cold northern air may create some interesting weather and is certainly no place to be in a boat. Listening to a couple of local Vermont meteorologists this morning, they have more confidence in the European model and are becoming concerned. This time of the year, with the trees asleep and little absorption from the forests, flooding is a major concern. Vermont is still recovering from last year's flooding which did a tremendous amount of damage.


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## christyleigh (Dec 17, 2001)

chucklesR said:


> "I'm dreaming of a white halloween,
> Just like the one's I used to know"


 Well..... we had Halloween Blizzard last year in Mass with a 5 day power outage so what the heck  Let's have some more extremes


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## cb32863 (Oct 5, 2009)

chucklesR said:


> "I'm dreaming of a white halloween,
> Just like the one's I used to know"
> 
> Nah, doesn't work for me. Everyone turn east and blow as hard as you can.


I remember a white Halloween many years ago, 31" I believe. Part of the Perfect Storm...... And no, I do not want that to happen again.

On a side note, leave it to SN to have a weather discussion turn in to a cat fight....


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

from what i have been watching, int merely the named storm called sandy that is in need of being watched--is also the impending land based frontal system approaching and expected to join the sandy storm to provide a great huge fun event---however, as humans, and as predictions arent always spot on, we will see what happens when it happens, or a couple of days prior. is still too far off to accurately KNOW what is gonna be. we remember jova , on this coast--nothing is for sure. be ready and see what ye get.
hunker down as if the world is coming to an end, and be safe!



MEOUW!!! FFFFFFFFT FFFFFFFFFFFFT...


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Here's where the old saw "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" plays out in cruising.

I'm currently advising and weather-routing some southbound friends on their first cruise. My goal is for them to have a boring trip. (Well, boring weather-wise.) They were in Norfolk on Sunday. I told them about the possibility of this storm and advised them continue toward Oriental (which they could reach by around Friday) but not to continue out toward Beaufort and the coast until we knew which way the storm would play out. If it continued to build, they needed to stay in shelter; if it fizzled they could head out. I needed to know the worst-case possibility a week away because when you're cruising, in some cases the decision you make on Wednesday locks in where you are going to be on Saturday! 

I'm a grownup and prefer to know all the possibilities, including the low-probability but high-threat ones, to make a grownup decision, rather than have a nanny state coddle me with "nothing to worry your pretty little head about" crap. If you don't know there's a chance of a storm coming, you can't be watching for further development and making sure you have a Plan B. That's not alarmist, its just contingency planning.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

sandy doesnt look like a fizzler--- and the front coming isnt small..might wanna get them as far inland as possible, or as protected as possible, for a few day until safe, when the time comes. they are new, so wouldnt hurt.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Agreed about prepare for the worst. Keep you eye on the developing and changing predictions. Weather predictions are not an exact science, thats why its so important to get as many and a much information as possible. NOt just follow one weather servive or prediction as gospell. 

Wingnwing, your advice is the same as I gave my friends who are headed south and are actually further along than Beufort. I told them to stay inland. These storms can turn on a dime. It has northing to do with last years storm...or it occuring in November...it has everything to do with the parameters of this particular storm Sandy. And yes, looking 5 days ahead is the prudent thing to do as putting yourself in a position with no options is not a good one. They are all different and follow no pattern of predicability based on last years pattern. Watch what the Navy does with its ships in Norfolk, thats a good indicator for the Chesapeake and North Carolina 

There is measured way to go about this without becomming "chicken little" or predicting the return of the "perfect storm" of a few years back.. Instead of being an alarmist with hysterionics like the local weather forecasters, accuweather or the weather channel does everytime there is a low pressure system developing into a tropical cyclone in the Carribbean or Sargasso Sea. Stay alert, or a you said the opposite side being a "nanny saying everything will be just fine"...follow the storm and make your decisions accordingly. Thats just common sense. 

Agreeing with statements about cautiousness is really reaffirming the obvious. No prudent sailor or anyone on here including me has stated otherwise. I think the difference of opinion centered on which service to use for predictions. I say use them ALL and dont make fun or discount any of them

We were on our trip at the end of the LI Sound this year when a hurricane developed in the gulf and decided not to go further north so we would have a 3 day window to return to the Chessapeake in time. 

Jim Cantorre hasnt headed for the mid-Atlantic region yet so I am not worried about impending doom:laugher:laugher:laugher. If the storms heads this way I will take proactive action.

My eyes are wide open as I have a boat in the water and a vested interest..

Dave


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

This is a nasty looking picture. Your friends would be wise to remain in the ICW and find some little backwater to hole up until it plays out.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PWAM99.gif


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

amigo--we are all preparing for impending doom daily, as we are living aboard cruising.....is just from which direction(or all) is the impending doom coming.....so much potential...


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## jaschrumpf (Jun 22, 2002)

Just for perspective, let's revisit the official NWS bulletin for Katrina. When I read this back in the day my blood ran cold:

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


The only thing left out of that is "Cats and dogs living together!!!"

And you know, it was dead on correct.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

wingNwing said:


> Here's where the old saw "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" plays out in cruising.....
> 
> .....I'm a grownup and prefer to know all the possibilities, including the low-probability but high-threat ones, to make a grownup decision, rather than have a nanny state coddle me with "nothing to worry your pretty little head about" crap. If you don't know there's a chance of a storm coming, you can't be watching for further development and making sure you have a Plan B. That's not alarmist, its just contingency planning.


WingNwing, if you had broken your post up into two pieces, I could have "Liked" it twice!!

My thoughts exactly. Thanks for making my thoughts so clear, that even I could understand them.

Nicely written, you do very well with your "pretty little head"!


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

jaschrumpf said:


> Just for perspective, let's revisit the official NWS bulletin for Katrina. When I read this back in the day my blood ran cold:
> ............


Wow, it made my blood run cold just now, reading it.


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## cb32863 (Oct 5, 2009)




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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

chef2sail said:


> Agreed about prepare for the worst. Keep you eye on the developing and changing predictions. Weather predictions are not an exact science, thats why its so important to get as many and a much information as possible. NOT just follow one weather service or prediction as gospell.
> 
> ...follow the storm and make your decisions accordingly. Thats just common sense.


Agreed. I don't think there's much point in arguing weather models. Different models seem to work better for different storms. As we get further into the week the models will begin to converge -- that's when you can start making plans.

For right now the plan is to sail down Barnegat Bay on Saturday morning with a couple of good for nothing reprobate sailors. Drop the hook in Myers Hole for lunch. Throw some chicken and little necks on the grill and wash it all down with some Sam Adams. 









If it looks like the storm is going to veer toward shore we'll spend Saturday morning stripping sails and canvas off four boats and getting hauled.

Really, there isn't much more that we can do when you get right down to it.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

I am with you Jim...sounds like fun. Which Meyers Hole (1 has mooring balls...the other is in front of High Bar Yacht Club) we usually andchor in the first when when transiting to the LI Sound and comming in the inlet.

Our plans are to sail to Cacaway Island and watch the annual geese landing carnival. If the storms looks like it is comming I will do like you are. Strip the boat and prepare it for heavy weather. We are in a hurricane hole. Oour biggest worry is surge and flooding.

We will access as the weekend draws near and all the weather forecasters start " converging" as you said/

Dave


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Dave,
We'll go into the first by the mooring balls. I love this time of year, warm but not hot and a lot less boat traffic on the bay.

"_annual geese landing carnival_"

Is there such a thing or is it a euphemism for rafting up and drinking :laugher

We have the same concern with a storm coming in. We're also in a hurricane hole on Forked River. But the marina parking lot is only about four feet above the normal water level so a storm surge is always a worry if we take a direct hit.

Too early to worry about that though...


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

19 is now tony, so you have tony in the middle and sandy running too close to coast....sandy is spozed to meet with a front that is going across usa--and is spozed to be a huge east coast mess. goood luck--i hope they lied.
tony is easy--he gonna go to ireland.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204249.shtml?gm_track#contents


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

Hi,

Hurricane Sandy's Eye is currently between Jamaica and Cuba. We'd like to share with you how wave development is predicted for the next few days. It is a GRIB forecast from 2012-10-24 to 2012-10-29, updated every hour, data provided by NOAA:






Safe Sailing

Daniela


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Our last best hope for a miss has caved in, GFS has flipped and has 95% of the ensembles hitting the east coast. Here is a screen shot from Weather Underground of this mornings (Thurs. 10/25/12) model runs:










Am I happy? Absolutely not, I wanted a fizzle.

Domestic animals and wildlife often give signs of what the weather is going to do. Does the wildlife out here in the country indicate coming bad weather? Well, you need to know that I'm too far northwest for nut trees. Not so many gray squirrels live here, they are more along the coast. This is a hunting community, not a city park, squirrels here are wild and wary.

This morning is beautiful and sunny, calm before the storm. I went out and gray squirrels came pouring out of my sailboats and running away in all directions. I counted at least seven (7), by far the most I've ever seen together in my life in the wild. IIRC it was in '07/'08 that I last saw gray squirrels breaking into buildings, we had the biggest winter here in a decade.

I've never had squirrels go into my boats before, never! Didn't even think they could get up there. Not sure if this means a big winter or just a big storm, but the behavior is so extreme I have to guess both.

I'm not happy that lots of models are showing a hit on Maine. Even if it's a miss, I'm sure we'll get a secondary nor'easter out of it. My least favorite storm type, when anything can happen and forecasts mean nothing.

I hope this is not setting up a pattern of extreme nor'easters for Maine for the winter.

*Ha Ha! LOL, I just realized the squirrels are getting into boats! Boats! Do they expect flooding! I'm at the top of a high hill, so they left the trees, climbed the steepest hill, and got inside of boats. The opposite of rats leaving a sinking ship. Weird, and a bit scary.*


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

NOAA is providing an early forecast prediction with the highest probability that landfall will be centered around NYC;


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

I bow to the superior knowledge on this one forecasted by the european model. It has it bullseying my home right now.

Dave


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

Its been chaos here on the NJ shore. People shrugged this storm off as if it were nothing. Now people cant get their boats pulled in time. Even the models showing her pushed out to sea have all changed favoring a swing to the west. In my opinion, IF it does make landfall in the Jersey Shore it is going to be devastating.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

All the computer models have been slowly changing to predict an East Coast hit, somewhere from Del. to NY. The worst news is that it is supposed to run into the cold front and stall for close to a week, dropping mega amounts of rain. AP is calling it :Frankenstorm." :News from The Associated Press


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

My boat is coming out of the water Saturday. This is why I hate waiting till the end of the season.


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

skygazer,
Today The Weather Channel, the fast food source of weather info discussed the differences between the GFS and Euro models, how they initially diverged but are now beginning to agree on a landfall in the northeast. 
That is pretty bizarre about your gray squirrels finding your boat. They must know something, or did you leave a bag of peanuts on your boat?
I hate to say this but if Sandy is coming I hope she hits north and east of NYC. My boat is scheduled for haul out on 11/4/12 and not before then. This one is going to be a bit of a nail biter!


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Caleb, might be worth thinking about running up the Hudson to Haverstraw, Esopus Creek, or even higher up into the canal system. According to the news, Bloomberg is talking evacuation.

Speaking of the critters, the birds have been at the feeder like there's no tomorrow for a couple of days now.


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## Nicklaus (Apr 23, 2012)

Ugh... I have a boat survey and sea trial scheduled for Tuesday. Guess I could get a chance to really see how she handles. Ha.

Hopefully the Bay won't get any more than some good wind and chop.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

Hurricane SANDY


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

smurphny said:


> Caleb, might be worth thinking about running up the Hudson to Haverstraw, Esopus Creek, or even higher up into the canal system. According to the news, Bloomberg is talking evacuation.
> 
> Speaking of the critters, the birds have been at the feeder like there's no tomorrow for a couple of days now.


Smurphny,
We live 2 blocks from the Hudson in lower Manhattan. During h'cane Irene the buildings across the street from us were in the un-enforced evacuation zone. The tidal surge of Irene was pretty large but not to catastrophic proportions. Hoping this one is similar, however unlikely.

Definitely thinking about heading the boat up north but at this point is unlikely. At a minimum all canvas is coming off and extra pennants run to the mast, then hope and pray.

Irene sure wreaked havoc on upstate NY, Vermont etc. I can't believe that this one will do the same, so soon.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

CalebD said:


> .....I hate to say this but if Sandy is coming I hope she hits north and east of NYC......


Hey, wait a minute. I didn't wish this thing on you.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

from another weather site--these guys are radical weather followers--interesting folks----



> Interesting discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the scenarios for New England and Mid Atlantic states.
> 
> The Northeast U.S. scenario
> 
> ...


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

CalebD said:


> Smurphny,
> We live 2 blocks from the Hudson in lower Manhattan.


Caleb, Upper Nyack may be an option for you, too. We had the boat there when Bill passed (2009). It was on a mooring and everything was fine.

Good luck

Daniela


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

This from Washington Post: Experts sound alarm on Hurricane Sandy, likely to be worse than 1991 "Perfect Storm" - Capital Weather Gang - The Washington Post

As Hurricane Sandy whips the western Bahamas and models reach consensus that this storm is destined to slam the Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast, many trusted sources in the weather community are voicing cause for concern and urging residents to begin preparing.

Reasons to be concerned...

1) Longevity

Jim Cisco, NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event. It's going to be a widespread serious storm." (via the Associated Press)

National Weather Service (NWS), Philadelphia: "The storm will be slow moving. This worsens the impact for coastal flooding as it will affect multiple high tide cycles."

2) Lack of precedent

Brad Panovich, broadcast meteorologist, Charlotte: "It's very rare to see a strong tropical system merge with such a strong winter like trough of low pressure. Throw in a full moon and the potential is there for a significant storm. This system is 1 part Hurricane, 1 part Nor'easter and 1 part Blizzard potentially. Impacts of all 3 types of storms are possible depending on location.

"For those on the coast don't let the Category of the storm or whether it's "just" a Nor'easter dictate your response. Your personal memories of previous storms are no use in this unique situation."

Jim Cisco, NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting." (via the Associated Press)

3) Potential for record flooding

NWS Philadelphia: "If the center of the storm makes landfall along the New Jersey or Delaware coast, record coastal flooding is possible [for DE and NJ beaches]."

4) Expanding area of strong winds

James Franklin, National Hurricane Center: "[Sandy] will get broader [when it makes landfall]. It won't be as intense, but its effects will be spread over a very large area." (via the Associated Press)

Dave Tolleris, Wxrisk.com: "In [the mid-Atlantic] winds could reach up to 75 miles per hour in gusts during the height of the storm which will be fairly prolonged."

5) Inland snow potential

NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center: "HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE ONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST"

Dave Tolleris, WxRisk.com: "The snowstorm potential here remains high especially in the elevation above 800 or 1000 feet. It is still too early to know which portion of the interior Middle Atlantic mountain areas are going to see the heavy snow but somebody is gonna get really crushed with an early season snowfall."

6) Potentially worse than 1991 Perfect Storm, that struck 21 years ago

Background on Perfect Storm, Will Komaromi, researcher University of Miami: "Something similar [to Sandy] happened in late October through early November 1991. It was known as "the Perfect Storm", resulting in 13 fatalities and caused > $200 million in damages to the northeastern U.S. and fishing and shipping interests. In the Perfect Storm, northward-moving Hurricane Grace phased with a mid-latitude trough, similar to the one over the Central U.S. today. . . .

"The Perfect Storm deepened to 972 mb..."

Why Sandy could be more powerful, Will Komaromi: "Most of the models now indicate even stronger jet dynamics will occur next week than occurred during for the Perfect Storm, and that today's storm could potentially deepen to well below 960 mb or even below 950 mb. The fact that the Gulf Stream is anomalously warm for this time of year means that Sandy will weaken less as a tropical system..."

Sandy will be worse, Jeff Masters: "The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion.Yeah, it will be worse."(via the Associated Press)

7) Some good advice

National Weather Service, Philadelphia: "Leaves! There a lot of leaves on the ground. Leaves are excellent material to clog/block storm drains, worsening local/neighborhood flooding. Get leaves and any other obstructing materials away from storm drains before this storm arrives."

By Jason Samenow | 04:25 PM ET, 10/25/2012


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

CalebD said:


> Smurphny,
> We live 2 blocks from the Hudson in lower Manhattan. During h'cane Irene the buildings across the street from us were in the un-enforced evacuation zone. The tidal surge of Irene was pretty large but not to catastrophic proportions. Hoping this one is similar, however unlikely.
> 
> Definitely thinking about heading the boat up north but at this point is unlikely. At a minimum all canvas is coming off and extra pennants run to the mast, then hope and pray.
> ...


Just looking at all the surface and upper air charts, this storm has got to be a problem for computer programs. It looks like it could essentially go anywhere. I can't remember seeing a storm like this. The forecasts show it combining with some *ridiculously* low pressure, way inside the 564 mb line which usually creates the "track" for pressure systems. Glad I put two extra stands under the boat (over on Lake Champlain) a couple of weeks ago. Irene made a hell of a mess up here in the Adirondacks. We sure don't need a "500 year flood" again.

Just got this email from the NYS Canal System and thought it would be good to post here:

WATER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE CANAL SYSTEM MAY CHANGE WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE.

The Canal Corporation is closely monitoring Hurricane Sandy. The path of the storm is still unpredictable and conditions may change rapidly. Water levels in the Mohawk Valley are currently being drawn down to minimum navigable levels.The Canal Corporation is planning to further reduce water levels in the Mohawk Valley to below navigable levels beginning on Saturday.Any vessels located between Locks E-8 and E-16 may become grounded once this occurs. All mariners should consider removing their vessels from the Canal in advance of the storm while the opportunity exists.

For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4 and www.canals.ny.gov/index.shtml.
06:30:11PM 10/25/12


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

so far looks like a center-punch hit to nyc and philly---hunker down and be safe, folks....


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## RobGallagher (Aug 22, 2001)

Well, it's official. Sandy will be a non issue for New England. I headed up river and hauled early... Way too early. If it gets to warning or watch status for Ct/RI my insurance company will pay for a hurricane haul and that will be about half my winter fees. Any bets??


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

RobGallagher said:


> Well, it's official. Sandy will be a non issue for New England. I headed up river and hauled early... Way too early. If it gets to warning or watch status for Ct/RI my insurance company will pay for a hurricane haul and that will be about half my winter fees. Any bets??


you ARE joking?? yes??

Hurricane SANDY

https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherDork

and storm 2k---http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114082&sid=dd1e4a0514bf9f86f697e39b8bb9e31b


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## Flybyknight (Nov 5, 2005)

935 by the glass! 
Zikes!!
I'll concede that is a bit too low for my humble little boat.

Dick


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## RobGallagher (Aug 22, 2001)

zeehag said:


> you ARE joking?? yes??
> 
> Hurricane SANDY
> 
> ...


Yes, I was joking. Then again the way my luck runs, every time I've prepped for a major storm it fizzles. I'm prepared.

Now if I left my boat on my mooring with sails up and the barbecue running we would get hammered. . That's how I roll


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

i am hoping for a fizzle, but....i am thinking -- oops-and uh oh.... good luck, folks. be safe.
6-7 ft surge for nyc and philly??? eeps..and a blizzard for rhode island?? ouch. 
gawd i am glad i am in west coast mexico.....


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

*Friggin' Unbelievable Marina Conversation*

So this morning I looked at the weather models and more than half had us in the bullseye of the cone. Called BoatUS and got my advance claim number. Told them I'd be hauling ahead of the storm. I did this with last year's hurricane as well. BoatUS was great.

Last year the marina brought in extra guys, worked 12 hour days and got everyone hauled ahead of the hurricane. I figured it would be the same this year. I was VERY wrong.

The Dock Master tells me they're already booked with normal end of season haul outs on Friday, Saturday and Monday. There are no plans to have anyone there on Sunday. You're kidding right??? Can you squeeze me in?

Well I can add you to the "emergency haul" list.

"You'll be number six but we probably won't get to you before the storm gets here".

Now bear in mind this is only an hour after they opened and they've already had six people calling to schedule haul outs.

I pointed out that a significant storm surge is being predicted and a lot of boats tied in their slips is likely to cause a lot of damage if that happens.

"Well I didn't know that. Besides we have to winterize all these boats as we haul them out."

I suggested they focus on hauling boats and winterize after the fact. "Yeah I guess we could, I didn't think of that. I have to check with the owner and get back to you."

So I called another marina up river. "Yep we're putting on extra guys and working overtime all through the weekend until we get every boat hauled ahead of the storm. Come on down Saturday morning and grab an empty slip, we'll take care of you."

It's now 12 hours later. I still haven't heard anything from my marina and I'm F#@%!#@ pissed. I really like this marina, but if I wasn't already paid for next year I just might be switching. I know they have some cash flow issues but not putting guys on to haul boats ahead of a hurricane is just unforgiveable.


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## downeast450 (Jan 16, 2008)

I guess I will head for Northeast Harbor tomorrow or Sunday and ride it out there on a town mooring float. 

Down


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

CalebD said:


> skygazer,
> Today The Weather Channel, the fast food source of weather info discussed the differences between the GFS and Euro models, how they initially diverged but are now beginning to agree on a landfall in the northeast.
> That is pretty bizarre about your gray squirrels finding your boat. They must know something, or did you leave a bag of peanuts on your boat?
> I hate to say this but if Sandy is coming I hope she hits north and east of NYC. My boat is scheduled for haul out on 11/4/12 and not before then. This one is going to be a bit of a nail biter!


I'm sorry to hear that. I originally started this thread so sailors could get a couple days head start on the rush. I would look for a hurricane hole and leave my boat there. Tying up seems just as dangerous as anchoring. Make sure that the pilings are tall enough for a tremendous storm surge. My ideal hole would have good holding, be small enough to not have a big fetch, and have room enough for lots of scope. Or so small I tied to the trees on shore, or to anchors buried on shore which will not blow down in heavy rain.

You know, I almost agree that it would be better to hit up here. Too many people in NYC, too hard to deal with it. Further north, not just people but buildings are more prepared. We have nor'easters that are like hurricanes, but we survive.

Dr. Ryan Maue says that the pressure could fall below 940 mb. That is a very serious storm.

I say, Never mind this nonsense about tropical/extra tropical /warm /cold bs. Those are excuses. No one made those distinctions in the past. This storm has the potential of making Irene (who destroyed my corn crop) or whoever look like a squall. Be as safe as possible. And remember, it could still be a miss for you. If you see a crew of squirrels go by on a sailboat, you will know it hit Maine instead of NY.



CalebD said:


> ...did you leave a bag of peanuts on your boat?


I had no food on the boats, two were totally clean and washed inside, the third had some honey in a jar, and some Maker's Mark in an (almost) full bottle, nothing most squirrels would be interested in. I thought about it a lot today. I'll have to say that in my experience wild animals are much more accurate than computers. When I see deer in the daytime chowing down in the open field and ignoring me, I run and put the snowplows on the trucks even if the forecast is for clear.

I generally see only lone squirrels foraging for food. In nature the food is spread thinly, and they can't gang up. I think they were ganging up at the boats to crowd together and keep warm. The boats are in the back field. I just mowed it with a flail mower, height about up to a squirrels knee, and no where to hide from a fox, coyote, or hawk. I have deer, bear, moose etc. crossing my yard. To cross that bare field is something squirrels normally avoid. The boats are fiberglass, not wood, so a squirrel would slip and slide on it. The whole thing is fantastic to me.

And the idea of a bunch of squirrels boating is just too much! Obviously they have heard that anyone can run a power boat, but they don't realize that sailing requires someone teaching you the way. 

More seriously, I can't help thinking that no "instinct" could cause a squirrel to go to the top of the hill and get in a boat. To me, it must be God's providence guiding them.


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## floridajaxsailor (Aug 4, 2010)

Sandy is quite a storm to be observed with caution, bigtime
here on the West Coast of Florida we have ominous winds, tepid light rain
though today seemed fine
take care,
-JD


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## floridajaxsailor (Aug 4, 2010)

Sandy kills 11 in Cuba, then batters Bahamas - CNN.com


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

Hudson Valley Weather


> To be blunt and to hopefully clear up what has certainly been an information download of a day. This storm is very serious, and although there is time for things to change it is important to know that this storm will likely be larger then Irene is size, more powerful then Irene and move slower then Irene, it is a completely different monster and should not be taken lightly. As far as who in what area can expect to see an impact? The storm is currently 1600 miles across and everybody will fell its effects. What we should all be doing is utilizing the fact that not only was this storm mentioned here on Sunday,but now we still have 5 days to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you end up with some extra candles and batteries then so be it, but to not take advantage of having advanced knowledge of what may be a very serious storm is not something that is recommended. For the first time in history all National Weather Stations are launching extra weather balloons, the storm is striking on a full moon which will lead to worse coastal flooding. It has the potential to dump 6-12 inches of rain over a 24 hour period with and even longer period of damaging winds possible. So to sum it up it does not matter where you live, if you are in the Hudson Valley you should be aware of this threat and have a plan in place if the worst is to happen.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Jim...go to Silver Cloud. They bailed me out on a trip home from NE once. David is a really great guy there. I would keep my boat there too.

Dave


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## Familycruisers (Dec 15, 2011)

Looks like lots of rain, and some high winds. I just pulled mine into the docks off the mooring for the winter. Think I'll take all the sail off and take her back out to the mooring.


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

Zeehag,
This quote: "This storm is very serious, and although there is time for things to change it is important to know that this storm will likely be larger then Irene is size, more powerful then Irene and move slower then Irene, it is a completely different monster and should not be taken lightly."
is exactly what scares me.
We have weathered a few tropical storm events with our boat on a mooring but I get the feeling that this one could be a lot worse than we have seen, so far. Stronger winds, greater duration, yada, yada.

I find it amazing that you are sitting on your boat in Mexico and watching this. Does Bubba the boat cat keep an eye on h'cane Sandy with you? Howz the old Maine ****?


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

JimMcGee said:


> .......I know they have some cash flow issues but not putting guys on to haul boats ahead of a hurricane is just unforgiveable.


They must have business mental disease. What could they possibly pay a few yard guys per day? Compare that to the revenue from a dozen or two quick hauls. As long as a marina doesn't withstand damage, hurricane's are incredibly profitable!!


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

CalebD said:


> Zeehag, I find it amazing that you are sitting on your boat in Mexico and watching this. Does Bubba the boat cat keep an eye on h'cane Sandy with you? Howz the old Maine ****?


Bubba is a Maine **** cat? Cool!  I always like hearing Maine mentioned. Next time you watch a weather video, I'll bet the weather girl stands right in front of and blocking Maine. We are generally ignored. We get huge winter storms and no mention.


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

Food for thought. Its VERY rare that commercial vessels pick up and leave ( in my area anyway ). While I was working on a boat at the processing plant capts and owners were in a mad dash to get their fishing fleet out of Point Pleasant. Only 2 boats had an alternative spot while all the others are forced to ride it out. I have on occasion seen a few boats relocate over the years but at that point it was within a 36 hour window of impact. Ive never seen the fishing fleet panic while a storm still sits at its current location. That said alot to me about how bad it could actually be in my area.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Maine conspiracy huh:laugher:laugher:laugher:laugher:laugher

Even if she was off to the side...Id be watching her.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Two of the computer models now show the storm passing much farther south through The Chesapeake. This storm is leading the weathermen and their computers on a merry chase The HWRF track actually has it headed back south. That would be the best outcome for us here in the NE but bad news for the upper Chesapeake.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

chef2sail said:


> Jim...go to Silver Cloud. They bailed me out on a trip home from NE once. David is a really great guy there. I would keep my boat there too.
> 
> Dave


I'm already scheduled to haul there.

Dave is a good guy and runs a tight marina. I've also got quite a few friends at Tall Oaks which is part of Silver Cloud.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

smurphny said:


> Two of the computer models now show the storm passing much farther south through The Chesapeake. This storm is leading the weathermen and their computers on a merry chase The HWRF track actually has it headed back south. That would be the best outcome for us here in the NE but bad news for the upper Chesapeake.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) model rather new and unproven, and used mainly for research and model improvements? I'm not sure a long term accuracy chart has even been developed for it yet.

Nevertheless, the many and widely differing paths models are showing indicates that there is no real 'lock" on what Sandy will do. "It's a woman's privilege to change her mind" may apply here. She could kick up her heels and head off someplace surprising. Makes life "interesting".


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

This *is* really interesting. I think this mess is more than computer models can predict with any reliability more than about 12 hours out. The NWS model now shows the track actually doing a loop back over the Chesapeake. That would be bad news for the whole bay area.

Description of the models are here:NHC Track and Intensity Models

The chart of reliability and time shows how far off these forecasts can be :

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/5yr_ALtkerrdist.gif


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

Re: Halloween Hurricane
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalebD 
"Zeehag, I find it amazing that you are sitting on your boat in Mexico and watching this. Does Bubba the boat cat keep an eye on h'cane Sandy with you? Howz the old Maine ****?"

"Bubba is a Maine **** cat? Cool! I always like hearing Maine mentioned. Next time you watch a weather video, I'll bet the weather girl stands right in front of and blocking Maine. We are generally ignored. We get huge winter storms and no mention."

this looks to be a special winter. 
yes, bubba is maine **** mix, and spotted this system when he thought it was going to come to us--we watch everything in summer--when i saw it , it was still moving west, toward mexico--then she pulled a switch to come get you guys--
i am prolly more east coaster than west--grew up there, learned to sail there, but always loved kali, until political...still have a lot of family back east.....maine has super cold and harsh winters...it hurts there in winter.....


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## Familycruisers (Dec 15, 2011)

The tracks are mostly looking to come in around NJ or DE. Those storms typically don't hurt the upper Chessy. Infact besides the deluges of rain the wind is going to tend to push water out of the Chesapeake. People are quite panicked regardless. Guess we'll see.


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

They just put out their first impact map, looks to be between Cape May and Sandy Hook, however things can and do change within a matter of hours its just what they have thus far.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

this is not merely an impending hurrycame--is 3 fronts potentially uniting and making a wondrous event--let us hope for a non event, instead, but please prepare for the worst. good luck, and may the 3 not meet together.


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

IF.. IF it does happen the way they say it could it will be the worst storm to hit the Jersey Shore since 1938.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> Maine conspiracy huh:laugher:laugher:laugher:laugher:laugher
> 
> Even if she was off to the side...Id be watching her.


Dave, here in Maine we are not important enough for a conspiracy, we leave that to DC. 

Instead, we suffer from benign neglect, which can be pretty OK since it leaves a lot of wild countryside to enjoy.

Zeehag, if our winters weren't so fierce, and our spring black flies so bad, everyone would live here and I wouldn't be able to afford to. We have lakes, rivers, forests, mountains, and the sea, everything I like rolled into one.

When I mentioned this is a hunting community, I mean that here the wives hunt and get big game. Part of shopping for winter food. Biggest bear in a decade was shot by a wife just up the road from here.

My wife has been pestering me for weeks that hunting season is almost here, and she has to shoot her gun to check the sights. I finally got to it last evening. She had to stop working on her art projects, and wait till her grilled chicken was done. She only had five cartridges, which she feels is "plenty, I only need a couple to sight in". She shot my .22 four times with me coaching her. The first two shots were to the right, she fixed her trigger pull, and put the third into the bullseye (size of a quarter). I told her to exaggerate her follow through, and the fourth shot she hit the the x where it marks the center of the bullseye.

Then she fired one precious shell from her deer rifle, a 30-30. She hit the x dead center at the crossing, touching the last shot from the .22. This was done while standing up, no rest, and is remarkable shooting. She walked down, looked at her shot, and calmly told me "let's see you beat that, I have to go to band practice". She's the singer in a jazz band.

I did not "beat that", and I was state champion 6 years in a row. I'm hoping that little exhibition of shooting in our backyard will discourage the squirrels from moving into the boats.

The only time I've seen her worry about not having enough cartridges was when she dropped one, and only had two left. She was hunting on our land and met some hunters who stopped to tell her that they had just seen three bears run into our woods where she was going. She decided three bears were too much for two bullets.

As part of getting ready for the storm I painted two snowplows yesterday, now they are glossy and slippery in case of sticky wet snow.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

DivingOtter said:


> IF.. IF it does happen the way they say it could it will be the worst storm to hit the Jersey Shore since 1938.


Wow, I'm not kidding that they are still talking about that '38 hurricane around here, and not from this one coming but just because they were so impressed by what it was like and all the trees that blew down and totally blocked the roads.

My father used to talk about spending all his time cutting up the pines that blew down - I think he used an axe and handsaw.


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Wow.... the projected tracks for this hurricane are _literally _ all over the map;










This thing could come ashore anywhere from Maryland to Maine...


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Wow skygazer....sounds like you and your wife are living the dream... far away from the maddening crowds.

I see you are from western Maine, where is it you keep your sailboat...what kind is she?

Dave


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

maine is very important--they have awesome lobsters,,,,,,


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

> maine is very important--they have awesome lobsters,,,,,, zeehag


Maine is important..great place to sail also. Lobsters from cold water are the best. Not just Maine but also NH, Mass, And RI....and oh yes Canada


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## jimjazzdad (Jul 15, 2008)

chef2sail said:


> Maine is important..great place to sail also. Lobsters from cold water are the best. Not just Maine but also NH, Mass, And RI....and oh yes Canada


Oh yeah, Canada - that little bit of land north of Maine...

I can't believe we are sitting here watching a hurricane head for land somewhere between Florida and Maine. Usually when they make it this far North, they have only grazed Hatteras on their way to whack Maine, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Hope it doesn't build into the superstorm that some are prognosticating. Good luck neighbours (that's Canadian for neighbors) and stay safe!


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## Tim R. (Mar 23, 2003)

DivingOtter said:


> Food for thought. Its VERY rare that commercial vessels pick up and leave ( in my area anyway ). While I was working on a boat at the processing plant capts and owners were in a mad dash to get their fishing fleet out of Point Pleasant. Only 2 boats had an alternative spot while all the others are forced to ride it out. I have on occasion seen a few boats relocate over the years but at that point it was within a 36 hour window of impact. Ive never seen the fishing fleet panic while a storm still sits at its current location. That said alot to me about how bad it could actually be in my area.


Interesting. This morning I noticed a couple of big fishing boats I have never seen before coming into the harbor.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

NOAA forecast detail for the Jersey Coast
NOAA Graphical Forecast for New Jersey


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

zeehag said:


> maine is very important--they have awesome lobsters,,,,,,


mmmmh yummy 
- and don't forget their famous delicious clam chowder


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## christyleigh (Dec 17, 2001)

jimjazzdad said:


> Oh yeah, Canada - that little bit of land north of Maine...


 There's land north of Maine  Aww..C' mon...I thought is was just ice and snow up there 
It seems the latest guesses from the experts make it look like Delaware and New Jersey have volunteered to take it on the chin for us. Good Luck down there !!


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

And I always thought Maine *was* part of Canada with all those sissy little black flies compared to those here in the Adirondacks....eh.


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## kjones (Aug 4, 2011)

How may Chesapeake sailors are hauling?


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## downeast450 (Jan 16, 2008)

Looks like I can wait until Sunday to hide Tundra Down in NEH, ME. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day for a sail. Things look nasty through Wednesday. 4 nights on a moored float @ $5.00/night! This storm is going to cost me twenty bucks! Lucky me! I will take the opportunity to change the engine's oil. Here is hoping it ends up being that simple here.

We hauled the Marshall Cat Boat Sunday. It was due anyway. That boat's mooring field is closed after November 1st! Had a beautiful sail before we hauled. Double reefed and a little splashy. What a great sailboat design. Fun!

Good luck to you mid coast sailors.

Down


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## miatapaul (Dec 15, 2006)

The Erie Canal is closing and dropping the water levels down in preparation of the storm. Just got this from their email alert system:

HURRICANE SANDY 10/26 UPDATE

The Erie Canal from Lock E-8 (Scotia) to Lock E-17 (Little Falls) is projected to close at 7:00 AM on Sat, October, 27, 2012. Water levels in this section will begin to be lowered, at that time, to approximately 3-5 feet below minimum navigation levels. Any vessels remaining in this section which are able to navigate at reduced water levels, will be allowed to transit to safe harbor. Additional closures are possible depending on the storm track.

For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4 and New York State Canals.
03:58:30PM 10/26/12


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## miatapaul (Dec 15, 2006)

The Erie Canal is closing and dropping the water levels down in preparation of the storm. Just got this from their email alert system:

HURRICANE SANDY 10/26 UPDATE

The Erie Canal from Lock E-8 (Scotia) to Lock E-17 (Little Falls) is projected to close at 7:00 AM on Sat, October, 27, 2012. Water levels in this section will begin to be lowered, at that time, to approximately 3-5 feet below minimum navigation levels. Any vessels remaining in this section which are able to navigate at reduced water levels, will be allowed to transit to safe harbor. Additional closures are possible depending on the storm track.

For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4 and New York State Canals.
03:58:30PM 10/26/12


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

smurphny said:


> And I always thought Maine *was* part of Canada with all those sissy little black flies compared to those here in the Adirondacks....eh.


Clearly you have never had the joy of working in the woods in Nova Scotia in the spring. They have magnificent blackflies!

And St. Margaret's Bay is beautiful.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Here is an inundation map prepared by SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) showing expected submerged land in the NYC Metro area, color coded to category of hurricane. Might help someone with planning.


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## sww914 (Oct 25, 2008)

DivingOtter said:


> IF.. IF it does happen the way they say it could it will be the worst storm to hit the Jersey Shore since 1938.


Maybe it'll wash away that TV show!


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

skygazer said:


> Here is an inundation map prepared by SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) showing expected submerged land in the NYC Metro area, color coded to category of hurricane. Might help someone with planning.


Thanks for that skygazer. I have seen that before but it is timely so I don't have to go search for it.
We are about 3/8" up the Hudson from the bottom of Manhattan, practically in the "Red Zone" for Cat. 1 flooding. 
I'm looking for higher ground to park my car when the SHTF. This map helps me a lot.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Jim McGee asked me for a SLOSH of NJ. Too big, will mess with the page width. But here is a link to all of the counties (half way down) and a very good - and large - state map of NJ/NYC (State Roads Slosh Map):

New Jersey Office of Emergency Management

I can hardly bear to look at these maps, but they are important. Remember they show only storm surge, heavy rains can swell rives and add to the height of the salt water.

In NYC, 80% of people have never experienced a hurricane of such potential, and may wait too long to realize the danger. Remember that at a certain point subways will be flooded. Make sure to move out before roads are submerged.

The terrible inconvenience of moving out beats the heck out of terrible suffering.

On another site I saw the prediction that NYC police will be in boats, rescuing looters from drowning. For my money thieves can be left to swim holding onto their goods. There is a monkey trap where you bore a hole into wood, and put a nut or anything in the pocket below. The monkey reaches in, grabs the nut, and his paw is too big to withdraw. Greed makes the monkey hold on and be trapped long enough for the hunter.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

skygazer said:


> Clearly you have never had the joy of working in the woods in Nova Scotia in the spring. They have magnificent blackflies!
> 
> And St. Margaret's Bay is beautiful.


Some day would love to sail up through The Richelieu through the Chambly and sail up that way. It's on my bucket list. Thanks for that SLOSH link. They're predicting 14" of potential rain for wherever this comes ashore...unbelievable.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoom/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

I'm seeing private forecasts that say the wind speeds will be highest on the north side of the storm, due I think to the polar jet.

Also that the storm may ease a bit, but don't become less vigilant, because they expect it to immediately re-intensify.

I'm passing this info on because I've been less than thrilled with the way the whole forecasting thing has been handled.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

If this storm makes landfall along the NJ coast, the water that piles up in the NY bight and along the LI shore could be devastating. They're evacuating Fire Island already. It would not take a lot to break another inlet or two through the barrier islands. I would not want to be anywhere near Shinnecock Inlet or Dune Road for this.


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## jimrafford (Jan 7, 2011)

Very glad we put in bigger/taller pilings this past spring at our condo assoc.
Jim


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Private forecast is still showing hit at center of NJ, north of the NHC's forecast.

National Weather Service (NWS) forecast, Marine, cut and paste:

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

.MARINE... 
A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ON ALL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LATER SUNDAY ON ALL WATERS...INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL GREATLY INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG WIND...WITH 25-30 FT OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 5 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ON THE SOUND.


HYDROLOGY... 
A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN BANDS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY...WITH FLOODING OF FLASHY...FAST RESPONDING STREAMS LIKELY AS WELL. THE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE EXACERBATED BY FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING DRAINS...AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LARGER MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MON AND TUE AS A RESULT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... 
A MAJOR AND PROLONGED COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING SUNDAY...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE AS WELL. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF THE COASTAL STORM WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A MAJOR TO LOCALLY RECORD BREAKING COASTAL FLOODING EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION...AS WELL AS DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS. HAND IN HAND WITH THE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE INCREASINGLY HIGH SURF BATTERING THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAJOR BEACH EROSION...LOCALIZED WASHOVERS...AND DAMAGE TO VULNERABLE SHORELINE STRUCTURES. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS A RESULT.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
CT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012. 

NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-073>075-078>081-176>179. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. 

NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108. FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. 

MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.


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## jimrafford (Jan 7, 2011)

I was supposed to be leaving tomorrow to go to our place in South Carolina for a vacation. Not happening. 2 boats in the water. Guess I'll have to wait til the spring.
Jim


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

jimrafford said:


> I was supposed to be leaving tomorrow to go to our place in South Carolina for a vacation. Not happening. 2 boats in the water. Guess I'll have to wait til the spring.
> Jim


Life is what happens while you are busy making other plans.

This storm is looking less and less like the quick and dirty slam bam, thank you maam that Hurricane Irene delivered last August.


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Latest wind prediction...


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Computer models seem to be all coming together now, predicting a landfall somewhere on the NJ shoreline. This is bad news for the NY bight and LI barrier islands. Brian Norcross at the Weather Underground site has just posted a pretty dire piece:Bryan Norcross' Official Blog : Sandy on Track - But Is the Message Getting Out? | Weather Underground


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

The 48 hours out European (ECMWF) this morning shows almost exactly the same image it showed 5 days ago when I posted the 216 hr image on the first post of this thread, remarkable consistency. The GFS after flipping around has finally settled on the same idea. Remember that the GFS often flips around, then becomes more accurate when things get close. So it must be taken seriously.

But what is significant is that the GFS has the eye already well over the land in NJ at 42 hrs, while the Euro has it still over the sea at 48 hrs. The maps were made 6 hrs apart, so they refer to about the same time frame. The difference in the speed of movement is *large enough span a 1/2 tide cycle*, so there is still a wide variation in possible inundation by sea water on top of rainfall flooding. Let's hope the surge peaks at low tide, which during a full moon is *lower* than a normal tide.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

The lastest forecast I saw this morning has the eye coming right over us in Forked River on both models.

I was stripping canvas and sails off my boat yesterday before haul out and saw the first of the commercial fleet coming up the river. Gave me an icy pit in my stomach. If these guys are coming into the hurricane hole you know it's going to be bad. What was even more sobering was standing next to the owner of the marina where I hauled. He's been on the bay for a long time. Seeing his face when a commercial scallop boat came up the river...

I swung back past my marina one last time after being hauled. Talked a guy in a Catalina 25 out of trying to ride it out in his boat. Can't believe he was seriously going to do this.

The house is as secure as I can make it. I'm going to swing by the boat this afternoon for one last time.

Everyone who's in bulls eye on this one - be safe and good luck. Hope on Thursday we're all on this thread breathing a sigh of relief.

Jim


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

skygazer said:


> The 48 hours out European (ECMWF) this morning shows almost exactly the same image it showed 5 days ago when I posted the 216 hr image on the first post of this thread, remarkable consistency. The GFS after flipping around has finally settled on the same idea. Remember that the GFS often flips around, then becomes more accurate when things get close. So it must be taken seriously.


I'd like to share this info about waves development for the East Coast, hourly forecast, high res, just updated:






Apart from the waves there is a lot of rain to be expected, too:
HPC HLT QPF Graphics


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## Ulladh (Jul 12, 2007)

Hauled out yesterday at Essington PA on the Delaware River, removed the bimini and put stuff away this morning. The water was at the high high tide level 3 hours before predicted high tide and we are at least a full day before the surge.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

why would they go to Cape Hatteras NOW???

Hurricane Sandy forces HMS Bounty evacuation - Nova Scotia - CBC News


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

weathertrack said:


> why would they go to Cape Hatteras NOW???
> 
> Hurricane Sandy forces HMS Bounty evacuation - Nova Scotia - CBC News


They're not *at* Hatteras, they're way east of the storm. They're there because they were on passage, going way from Canada to Florida. All the crew has been accounted for and are ok.

If this link works, a photo of us on the Bounty when they toured here last June:







http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...48421651033.2090599.1251710304&type=1&theater


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

weathertrack said:


> why would they go to Cape Hatteras NOW???
> 
> Hurricane Sandy forces HMS Bounty evacuation - Nova Scotia - CBC News


What in the world were they thinking?? Not to mention the brave men and women from the USCG that now have to risk their lives to go get them.


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Minne, I think I posted while you were posting; they were there because they were caught at sea while on passage from Canada - they left before Sandy was even on NHC's radar. And they went WELL east of the storm track once it was being tracked, not right off Hatteras as the article makes it appear. 

Generator failed and they were taking on water, they rode it out as long as they could overnight then made the call to abandon. All the crew are accounted for.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

wingNwing said:


> they were there because they were caught at sea while on passage from Canada - they left before Sandy was even on NHC's radar. And they went WELL east of the storm track once it was being tracked, not right off Hatteras as the article makes it appear.
> 
> Generator failed and they were taking on water, they rode it out as long as they could overnight then made the call to abandon. All the crew are accounted for.


Thanks for telling.
Their port schedule:
http://www.tallshipbounty.org/schedule/

Good to hear they are all safe now.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

wingNwing said:


> Minne, I think I posted while you were posting; they were there because they were caught at sea while on passage from Canada - they left before Sandy was even on NHC's radar. And they went WELL east of the storm track once it was being tracked, not right off Hatteras as the article makes it appear.
> 
> Generator failed and they were taking on water, they rode it out as long as they could overnight then made the call to abandon. All the crew are accounted for.


That makes a bit more sense. Far be it for the media to get reporting correct these days.

However, something still doesn't feel right. For them to get from Canada to NC seems like they would have had plenty of notice of the incoming storm. Its been forecast as a huge storm since early last week, even if one may have thought it would turn to open water.

Heading south toward an incoming storm in open water???


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

UPDATE: Coast Guard responds to vessel in distress 160 miles from hurricane's center

I don't think they were that imprudent, based on the early predictions' uncertainty (look at early discussion of the storm right here on SN, for example). And, Bounty was in an area of not-so-horrible conditions when they made the call, indicating to me that they had chosen a reasonable course. A generator failed last night, and the old woodie was taking on more water than they could pump.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

wingNwing said:


> I don't think they were that imprudent, based on the early predictions' uncertainty (look at early discussion of the storm right here on SN, for example). And, Bounty was in an area of not-so-horrible conditions when they made the call, indicating to me that they had chosen a reasonable course. A generator failed last night, and the old woodie was taking on more water than they could pump.


I'm not intending to kick them, while they're down. I know that as of last Wednesday, when I hauled out, it was pretty clear that the storm was coming up the coast. It just wasn't clear that it would turn toward NJ yet. Spaghetti tracks showed landfall anywhere from VA to ME. That seems to be about the time they launched, so I'm not seeing how it was prudent.

Although, something more than the storms seems to be at play. The replica has two 375hp diesel engines in addition to the generator. The original didn't leak enough to require a generator at all. Something did happen to hull integrity, perhaps it was from the pounding. I am happy to hear the crew is safe.


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Oops, correction, they had already left Canada, they were in New London, CT a few days ago. That totally made sense, then, given Sandy's predicted impacts in NY and New England, that they'd be safer at sea than in port. They ssailed out due east to get well clear of the storm before continuing south. The Navy sent all their vessels out from Norfolk in advance of the storm for the same reason - sometimes you're safer away from the dock!


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

wingNwing said:


> Minne, I think I posted while you were posting; they were there because they were caught at sea while on passage from Canada - they left before Sandy was even on NHC's radar. And they went WELL east of the storm track once it was being tracked, not right off Hatteras as the article makes it appear.
> 
> Generator failed and they were taking on water, they rode it out as long as they could overnight then made the call to abandon. All the crew are accounted for.


I'm sorry, but to be where they were is absolutely unfathomable to me...

They departed New London, CT, ON THURSDAY... Seems like they were almost determined to meet up with Sandy abeam of Hatteras...

I can't imagine what they were thinking, or why they didn't run into Norfolk, or the Chesapeake, for example... I'd really like to hear the rationale for this voyage...


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Minnewaska said:


> I'm not intending to kick them, while they're down. I know that as of last Wednesday, when I hauled out, it was pretty clear that the storm was coming up the coast. It just wasn't clear that it would turn toward NJ yet. Spaghetti tracks showed landfall anywhere from VA to ME. That seems to be about the time they launched, so I'm not seeing how it was prudent.
> 
> Although, something more than the storms seems to be at play. The replica has two 375hp diesel engines in addition to the generator. The original didn't leak enough to require a generator at all. Something did happen to hull integrity, perhaps it was from the pounding. I am happy to hear the crew is safe.


It's hard to second-guess why he decided to put out rather than stay docked somewhere. It's not like there are no relatively safe spots along the Conn/RI/Mass shoreline. Up inside New London or behind the storm gates at New Bedford would seem a good place to sit it out. Sounds like she really opened up and flooded all the engines. Maybe the original was built by shipwrights that had built a few of these before

Maybe they had a..... schedule.... to keep.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

wingNwing said:


> Oops, correction, they had already left Canada, they were in New London, CT a few days ago. That totally made sense, then, given Sandy's predicted impacts in NY and New England, that they'd be safer at sea than in port. They ssailed out due east to get well clear of the storm before continuing south. The Navy sent all their vessels out from Norfolk in advance of the storm for the same reason - sometimes you're safer away from the dock!


I'd like to see the track of their voyage... How they would have managed to sail due east to get "well clear" of one of the most expansive hurricanes in history, and then wind up to the west of the eye off Hatteras 4 days later, is rather curious, to say the least...


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Most recent path has put us ( Baltimore/ Annapolis) area in the cone of the projected path. This storm is a juggernaught.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

JonEisberg said:


> I'd like to see the track of their voyage... How they would have managed to sail due east to get "well clear" of one of the most expansive hurricanes in history, and then wind up to the west of the eye off Hatteras 4 days later, is rather curious, to say the least...


Here is a track:
(source: sailwx.info)
http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WDD9114

and here some additional info
BOUNTY - Vessel's Details and Current Position - 0 - 369191000


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

JonEisberg said:


> I'd like to see the track of their voyage... How they would have managed to sail due east to get "well clear" of one of the most expansive hurricanes in history, and then wind up to the west of the eye off Hatteras 4 days later, is rather curious, to say the least...


the link does not work well, here is a pic


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

As I was driving out of the boat yard yesterday, I saw some people on their ~40 foot poweryacht working diligently to cover their hard bimini (open sides) with a cheap plastic tarp. The thing looked like it was already shredded from several seasons of use. I thought, "gee, sailors usually REDUCE sail area when expecting a heavy blow."

Down the road at my marina (which I've vacated for the season), there were several boats that still had their biminis up. Owners were nowhere to be found. I'll go back next week to survey the damage. I helped out some people who were working to prep their boats, but I will not touch an unattended boat without the owner's permission.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> Most recent path has put us ( Baltimore/ Annapolis) area in the cone of the projected path. This storm is a juggernaught.


This is the most recent path info from NOAA:


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

weathertrack said:


> Here is a track:
> (source: sailwx.info)
> http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=WDD9114
> 
> ...


Had trouble with the first link, but it finally went through, thank you.

I googled the last position, looked just under 100 miles off the lighthouse on cape Hatteras, seemingly right in the center path of Sandy.

Here is the map of the location, the green arrow, not the red A marking the Atlantic Ocean

https://maps.google.com/maps?rlz=1T...22'+W+074°15'&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&sa=N&tab=wl


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## kjones (Aug 4, 2011)

Random question, why are none of us (Chesapeake to NYC) under a trop storm/hurricane watch or warning yet?


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Just saw a report on television that the Coast Guard picked up 14 of the bounty crew but several were unaccounted for.

Conditions in a life boat in this storm must have been harrowing. Can't imagine what it would be like for the Coast Guard to try and pick them up.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

skygazer said:


> Had trouble with the first link, but it finally went through, thank you.


you are welcome. 
There is also this information (see below)

However, the Bounty sank and 2 crew is missing....
Let's hope for the best!


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Did they abandon a floating ship? Or was it sinking?


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

kjones said:


> Random question, why are none of us (Chesapeake to NYC) under a trop storm/hurricane watch or warning yet?


The bureaucratic reason can be found here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

In a nutshell, it's because National Hurricane Center believes that by the time it hits landfall it will no longer be a tropical storm, and thus no longer their responsibility. At that point, National Weather Service takes over, but NWS does not issue Hurricane warnings - only NHC does that.

The whole thing reminds me of this:


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

kjones said:


> Random question, why are none of us (Chesapeake to NYC) under a trop storm/hurricane watch or warning yet?


There will not be a hurricane warning, not even for NYC. The 'new' NHC seemingly exists only to entertain graduate students in a lab class for meteorologists, not to warn ordinary people who foot the bill.

The Hurricane of '38 would probably not be called a hurricane today. Just asinine technicalities that make a distinction never made in the past. Likely there will no longer be "hurricanes" this far north.

I think everyone should write their congressmen and express their disapproval with this nonsense. And with the weather services who absolutely had on their screens the map I posted a full week ago Monday the 22nd on the first post in this thread, showing a major hurricane about to make landfall in the mid Atlantic coast of the USA.

I did not mention but due to pulling my boat and other necessities on Friday the 19th - I expected a storm, just not this big - I didn't have computer access and energy enough to look at models until Sunday/Monday. The models may have been just as clear about this storm before I posted that map. The map is dated Monday 10/22 for 216 hours ahead.

The weather services could certainly say 30-40% chance of major hurricane hitting the center of the east coast, or what ever percent they wanted. We have enough gambling that everyone would understand the risk. They will no doubt say "we don't want to panic people", but waiting till the last minute is the sure way to cause panic. Longer warning would allow stores to get in food, batteries, generators etc and make less panic and more readiness.

Also, people are more serious with a hurricane warning. Just this morning my wife heard the weather and said "So we aren't getting the hurricane?"!!

The ECMWF last I looked showed the storm breaking up once solidly over land, I hope it does. The GFS shows it holding together longer, and is quite accurate when close to the event.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

TakeFive said:


>


Your you tube really cracked me up, I laughed out loud a lot!

Thanks for the bright "spot" ("come on boy, here spot") in my morning.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

JulieMor said:


> Did they abandon a floating ship? Or was it sinking?


Apparently she was still floating:
quote:
"On 29 October 2012, 16 members of the Nova Scotia built Bounty abandoned ship off the coast of North Carolina after getting caught in the high seas brought on by Hurricane Sandy.[14]. The ship sank, according to the Coast Guard at 8:45 a.m. Monday 10-29-12" 
(source: wiki)


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

skygazer said:


> There will not be a hurricane warning, not even for NYC. The 'new' NHC seemingly exists only to entertain graduate students in a lab class for meteorologists, not to warn ordinary people who foot the bill.
> 
> The Hurricane of '38 would probably not be called a hurricane today. Just asinine technicalities that make a distinction never made in the past. Likely there will no longer be "hurricanes" this far north.
> 
> ...


Does it really matter what they call it? NYC shut down the subway last night. My sister says there is no public transportation there. I've been reading the NY Times, Wash Post, Phila Inquirer, and Boston Globe every day and Sandy has been in the headlines since at least mid-last week. And remember, it's only been in the last 24-48 hrs that they knew for sure it was not going to turn out to sea. But the projected track has been targeting a hit on the Jersey shore for days now.

Regardless of whether they called it a hurricane, a tropical storm, or a big wet and windy mess, anyone who didn't know there was a good possibility of something bad hitting the mid-Atlantic coast must have been living in a cave. Seems to me that NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have been putting out the information they had and the news media have been reporting it. And local governments have been responding, Gov Christie ordered evacuation of towns around Cape May a few days ago. Hard for me to see what additional information could have been provided.


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## jimjazzdad (Jul 15, 2008)

skygazer said:


> There will not be a hurricane warning, not even for NYC. The 'new' NHC seemingly exists only to entertain graduate students in a lab class for meteorologists, not to warn ordinary people who foot the bill.
> 
> The Hurricane of '38 would probably not be called a hurricane today. Just asinine technicalities that make a distinction never made in the past. Likely there will no longer be "hurricanes" this far north...


Well, as a Canuck, my taxes don't support the NHC, but I sure use and appreciate their resources! And my taxes DO support the Canadian Hurricane Centre, even though we apparently don't get hurricanes this far north (guess I should ask for a tax rebate )! Whether it is called a hurricane, a post-tropical storm, a typhoon or a cyclone, I don't want to be unprepared for FORCE 12 conditions (what the Beaufort Scale defines as a _HURRICANE_). Yep, Beaufort makes no mention of storm's thermal engine source, just the kind of conditions: "Huge waves. Sea is completely white with foam and spray. Air is filled with driving spray, greatly reducing visibility...Very widespread damage to vegetation. Some windows may break; mobile homes and poorly constructed sheds and barns are damaged. Debris and unsecured objects are hurled about." Sounds like a hurricane to me. Maybe we should go back to using the Beaufort Scale and put up the those red flags with the black square!

BTW, here in Nova Scotia, more than 600 nautical miles NE of the Hurricane Sandy, we are getting easterly gales of 35 kt. - this is a huge storm!


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## kjones (Aug 4, 2011)

I wonder if it will matter to insurance companies in terms of covering haul out expenses. Don't most policies have a clause that they will only cover haul out if hurricane/trop storm watch or warning has been issued for the area? If no official warning or watch is issued, could insurance companies hide behind that technicality to not reimburse those who haul?


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

If the National Hurricane Center and the weather services were not busy playing games with our tax dollars, the Bounty would have clearly known the risks - it was Thursday for heavens sake. They were in New London, CT. If you haven't been there, it's sheltered and deep, deep enough for HUGE tankers to go way up river.

The navy ships going out to sea are not in the same league as Bounty. They draw much more water, big ships have foundered in the past when huge waves allowed them to touch bottom in a deep trough. Bounty would be in no such danger in the Thames river.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

kjones said:


> I wonder if it will matter to insurance companies in terms of covering haul out expenses. Don't most policies have a clause that they will only cover haul out if hurricane/trop storm watch or warning has been issued for the area? If no official warning or watch is issued, could insurance companies hide behind that technicality to not reimburse those who haul?


I'm no expert, but I believe insurance companies are "old fashioned" enough that if it's a named storm, they are with it to the end.

Of course, for a few billion they may wish to modernize.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

skygazer said:


> ...They will no doubt say "we don't want to panic people", but waiting till the last minute is the sure way to cause panic. Longer warning would allow stores to get in food, batteries, generators etc and make less panic and more readiness...


While I roll my eyes at the bureaucratic nature of NOAA's explanation, I think that it's a real stretch to suggest that there has not been adequate warning for this storm. It's all we've been hearing about for the last week. Any prediction outside a week is very iffy because so much can change.

You can gripe all you want about them not calling it a hurricane, but the fact is that we've been told very explicitly what level of wind and rain to expect.

If this thing dies out faster than expected, are you then going to gripe that they hyped it too much? Weather forecasting is an inexact science, and some people have unrealistic expectations. I frankly am amazed at how good these predictions have gotten in recent years.

And while it's easy as an outsider to poke fun at the bureaucratic explanations, beneath the surface there is probably a very good explanation that has to do with preventing duplication of effort, allocating forecasting and emergency resources with different expertise most efficiently, and/or preventing mixed and conflicting messages from different parts of NOAA.

The people who design these systems care about protecting our lives and keeping commerce moving. Yes, even government employees and contractors are human, and many of them are putting in a lot of extra hours right now to help us. God bless them!


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

> If the National Hurricane Center and the weather services were not busy playing games with our tax dollars, the Bounty would have clearly known the risks - it was Thursday for heavens sake. They were in New London, CT. If you haven't been there, it's sheltered and deep, deep enough for HUGE tankers to go way up river.


Give me a break. Assumption not based on any evidence. Stop pontificating. Your congressman has more important things to worry about than your musings about the NHC

Boat US policies are paying or 1/2 the haul out costs for my friends who ad tenor bats pulled prior to this storm

Dave


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

skygazer said:


> If the National Hurricane Center and the weather services were not busy playing games with our tax dollars, the Bounty would have clearly known the risks - it was Thursday for heavens sake. They were in New London, CT. If you haven't been there, it's sheltered and deep, deep enough for HUGE tankers to go way up river...


This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?

I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.


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## jimrafford (Jan 7, 2011)

Went for one last check on the boats this am. It was 1 hour past low and the tide never went out. 1 hour before high boats on the hard were floating. We have about 6' more piling before the docks go free. Going to be a huge mess in the am.
Jim


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

weathertrack said:


> the link does not work well, here is a pic


Thanks for posting that, absolutely mind-boggling...


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

TakeFive said:


> This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?
> 
> I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.


It's been reported that the Bounty was in constant contact with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it's fair to assume that they had the best information that was available. I'd say we need to wait until we know more about how, why, and what decisions were made before we start assigning blame.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

TakeFive said:


> This is one of the silliest things I have read here. You are suggesting that their foolish decision to head out into the storm was the government's fault? What kind of nanny state do you think we should have?
> 
> I think the weather service does an amazing job, and has gotten a lot better in recent years. As sailors, we all reap the benefits. You're really grasping at straws.


I agree with you completely, the weather sciences have been making steady and remarkable improvements, I really like and trust them. I merely believe they should share the knowledge in front of them, not pick and choose what they think we should know. That is being a nanny.

I'm not suggesting the government should stop boats from going out, only that the captain should have had the full weather picture to base his decisions on. I'm sure he had pressure to follow a schedule.

I don't know that it was a "foolish decision" on his part, he may have been informed that the storm was going out to sea, that's certainly what accuweather said.

I sincerely hope the storm is over hyped and dies suddenly to a fizzle, that would make me delighted and I'd have zero complaints. It could still happen, the vortex is involved in a delicate balance right now with all the different air masses about it and the changing water temps.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Question to all:
If you owned a boat that was in the condition _Bounty_ was reported to be in here, would you have made the trek to FL?

For those who would have, would you have headed out to sea knowing what we knew at that time?

Latest reports I've seen is the hurricane has strengthened and now is clocking 90 knot winds. The highest prediction at first was 80, then 85 and now it hits 90. Not good for those in its path.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

skygazer said:


> ...I don't know that it was a "foolish decision" on his part, he may have been informed that the storm was going out to sea, that's certainly what accuweather said...


Even if the eye of the storm was heading out to sea, the storm was 1000 miles wide! You're not going to sail around a storm like that.

If you're going to accuse NOAA of withholding facts, you had better back it up with some facts of your own. NOAA has hundreds of web pages to inundate people with information. The issue isn't lack of information, it's information overload that allows people to pick and choose which predictions that they want to believe.

There is no hidden information. Not in the Intenet age.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Although this says plan view, it should have said elevation view. It's of a vertical slice north to south through the center of Sandy' GFS solution just off the coast of NJ.

You can see how complex the warm core interaction is with the surrounding air masses, I'm not kidding when I say it could and I hope it does suddenly die on the vine, well, not die but stop intensifying or even fizzle.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

JulieMor said:


> Question to all:
> If you owned a boat that was in the condition _Bounty_ was reported to be in here, would you have made the trek to FL?
> .


A clear: NO, NEVER!


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

skygazer said:


> Although this says plan view, it should have said elevation view. It's of a vertical slice north to south through the center of Sandy' GFS solution just off the coast of NJ.
> 
> You can see how complex the warm core interaction is with the surrounding air masses, I'm not kidding when I say it could and I hope it does suddenly die on the vine, well, not die but stop intensifying or even fizzle.


...and you say that there's a lack of information out there?


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## WanderingStar (Nov 12, 2008)

For a slight change of direction, I just went down to look at LI Sound. I've never seen it so ugly.


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## Barquito (Dec 5, 2007)

Waves in southern Lake Michigan are forcast to be 30' Tues night. This thing is big.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Barquito said:


> Waves in southern Lake Michigan are forcast to be 30' Tues night. This thing is big.


We're already getting high wind warnings. Right now I'm about 16 miles WSW of southwest corner of Lake Michigan. I'm having a hard time believing that the breezy conditions I'm seeing can be coming from Sandy.

30' waves in Lake Michigan is killer. Let's hope they are wrong.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

steve77 said:


> It's been reported that the Bounty was in constant contact with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it's fair to assume that they had the best information that was available. I'd say we need to wait until we know more about how, why, and what decisions were made before we start assigning blame.


Sorry, but _"the best information available"_ at the time of the BOUNTY's departure from New London was that Sandy was going to be a remarkable "Perfect Storm" of extraordinary complexity, and in all probability guaranteed to compare in intensity and duration to the Ash Wednesday Storm 50 years ago... To attempt to shoot the gap between Sandy and The Graveyard of the Atlantic, in such an unweatherly vessel, seems to me nothing short of sheer lunacy...

And, if you're gonna look for anyone else but the Captain of the BOUNTY on which to place "blame" for this tragedy, well, then we have nothing further to discuss...


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

JonEisberg said:


> Sorry, but _"the best information available"_ at the time of the BOUNTY's departure from New London was that Sandy was going to be a remarkable "Perfect Storm" of extraordinary complexity, and in all probability guaranteed to compare in intensity and duration to the Ash Wednesday Storm 50 years ago... To attempt to shoot the gap between Sandy and The Graveyard of the Atlantic, in such an unweatherly vessel, seems to me nothing short of sheer lunacy...
> 
> And, if you're gonna look for anyone else but the Captain of the BOUNTY on which to place "blame" for this tragedy, well, then we have nothing further to discuss...


I'm not actually looking for anyone to blame. But obviously, you're free to blame whomever you choose.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I'm just not following how the Bounty could have possibly thought it was going to get far enough East to avoid Sandy. At the time of their departure, it was well known to be a big problem in the Northeast, they would have needed to get a third the way to Europe to avoid it. Then they must have tracked back to the West to try to outrun it? If they realized the flaw, they should have returned north, as it was then becoming very clear it was a Jersey landing.

I just don't get it and now it sounds as if some lives have been lost. Very tragic. I'm sure there are some decision makers that will live with this for the rest of their lives. I won't pound further on them, but we probably can learn from this as we understand more.


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## Familycruisers (Dec 15, 2011)

It was for sale in a very dismal market. Makes you wonder why you would head south toward FL with a hurricane in the Caribbean.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Familycruisers said:


> It was for sale in a very dismal market. Makes you wonder why you would head south toward FL with a hurricane in the Caribbean.


To collect the insurance?


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Minnewaska said:


> I just don't get it and now it sounds as if some lives have been lost. Very tragic. I'm sure there are some decision makers that will live with this for the rest of their lives. I won't pound further on them, but we probably can learn from this as we understand more.


We can analyze and try to learn. But lets try to keep the level courteous and elevated - I know, unusual for this group, but TRY, okay? We spent 3 days on the ship volunteering with them for their education mission when they were in Annapolis, and met many of the crew and the skipper. He's one of the two missing. Respect, please.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Got notification a couple of hours ago that the entire NYS Canal System is now closed:

HURRICANE SANDY 10/29 UPDATE

Mariners are advised the entire New York State Canal System is closed to navigation. Guard gates and lift bridges Statewide will be lowered to prevent structural damage from high winds. The Canal Corporation continues to closely monitor the forecast of Hurricane Sandy and additional actions are possible depending on the storm track. Water levels throughout the Canal System may change with little advance notice as the storm progresses. Additional updates will be provided as information becomes available.
For updates and information monitor 1-800-4CANAL4

Was just over to Lake Champlain to check the boat and snug up stands. We're about 300 miles from this storm and it's already blowing pretty hard.


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Speaking of canals... FDR drive is now a canal;


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

Ventor Avenue, in Atlantic City -

http://media.philly.com/images/300*300/A6YQGZvCMAAECMu.jpg


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

steve77 said:


> Ventor Avenue, in Atlantic City -
> 
> http://media.philly.com/images/300*300/A6YQGZvCMAAECMu.jpg


A little salt on your burger?


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

wingNwing said:


> We can analyze and try to learn. But lets try to keep the level courteous and elevated - I know, unusual for this group, but TRY, okay? We spent 3 days on the ship volunteering with them for their education mission when they were in Annapolis, and met many of the crew and the skipper. He's one of the two missing. Respect, please.


WnW, I'm not sure if you were suggesting I was being less than respectful. I acknowledged that there would be many that would live with this for the rest of their lives, for that reason.

However, I don't agree that any criticism is disrespectful. Quite frankly, they made a very bad decision that seems to have cost lives. If one chose to drive someone home after a couple of beers and they were killed, they would be vilified. I submit that the odds of killing someone on a Tall Ship near a hurricane are higher.

Thye made a very bad call, in my opinion. We just dont know why. Not intended to be offensive or self-righteous, just honest.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

steve77 said:


> > Originally Posted by JonEisberg
> > Sorry, but "the best information available" at the time of the BOUNTY's departure from New London was that Sandy was going to be a remarkable "Perfect Storm" of extraordinary complexity, and in all probability guaranteed to compare in intensity and duration to the Ash Wednesday Storm 50 years ago... To attempt to shoot the gap between Sandy and The Graveyard of the Atlantic, in such an unweatherly vessel, seems to me nothing short of sheer lunacy...
> >
> > And, if you're gonna look for anyone else but the Captain of the BOUNTY on which to place "blame" for this tragedy, well, then we have nothing further to discuss...
> ...


Agreed, "blame" is probably an unfortunate choice of words...

While being little more than a semantic distinction, the point I was trying to make was that it was the Captain, and the Captain alone, who ultimately shoulders the "responsibility" for this tragedy...


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## Ninefingers (Oct 15, 2009)

These guys are pinned in Haverstraw.

Toronto 2 St Maarten

Just passing through, and then a hurricane...


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Pressure at 939mb. Winds at 90mph. Traveling at 28mph. And they say there is so much power in the storm it will take hours, even 10's of hours, before it begins to lose strength once it makes landfall. This storm is a terror!


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Steve ,

Is that Ventnor and Trenton next to Chelsea Towers. Spent summers in AC growing up.

Dave


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

JonEisberg said:


> Agreed, "blame" is probably an unfortunate choice of words...
> 
> While being little more than a semantic distinction, the point I was trying to make was that it was the Captain, and the Captain alone, who ultimately shoulders the "responsibility" for this tragedy...


I agree that the Captain bears the ultimate responsibility for the ship and safety of the crew. But my feeling, at this point, is that I don't want to second-guess someone who had far more experience and knowledge of the situation as it developed than I do. I can't sit here in my warm, dry home and criticize the decisions he made without knowing why he made them. Or even what exactly those decisions were.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

> Re: Halloween Hurricane
> Pressure at 939mb. Winds at 90mph. Traveling at 28mph. And they say there is so much power in the storm it will take hours, even 10's of hours, before it begins to lose strength once it makes landfall. This storm is a terror!
> Like


Juggernaught. Winds outside the boat are 45 steady gust hit 63 on tridata wind instrument, driving rain sideways, Haleakula bouncing around in slip. Just had a nice bowl f homemade chili after walking around the docks, which took a huge effort , my Gill folulies are great, nice and dry inside, took my snorkel mask and put it on, as well as boots,

Got the picture......Halloween early.......trick or treat...


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

chef2sail said:


> Steve ,
> 
> Is that Ventnor and Trenton next to Chelsea Towers. Spent summers in AC growing up.
> 
> Dave


I don't know exactly. I'm from Philadelphia originally and spent my share of time in AC, but I haven't been there in many moons.

More pictures here: Sandy: Photos by our readers


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## Ninefingers (Oct 15, 2009)

chef2sail said:


> Juggernaught. Winds outside the boat are 45 steady gust hit 63 on tridata wind instrument, driving rain sideways, Haleakula bouncing around in slip. Just had a nice bowl f homemade chili after walking around the docks, which took a huge effort , my Gill folulies are great, nice and dry inside, took my snorkel mask and put it on, as well as boots,
> 
> Got the picture......Halloween early.......trick or treat...


Let me know if you have some suggestions for these guys:

Toronto 2 St Maarten


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

chef2sail said:


> Juggernaught. Winds outside the boat are 45 steady gust hit 63 on tridata wind instrument, driving rain sideways, Haleakula bouncing around in slip. Just had a nice bowl f homemade chili after walking around the docks, which took a huge effort , my Gill folulies are great, nice and dry inside, took my snorkel mask and put it on, as well as boots,
> 
> Got the picture......Halloween early.......trick or treat...


While you're out walking around, don't forget the words of Ron White, "_It's not *THAT* the winds are blowin', it's *WHAT* the winds are blowin'._" 

Skip to 4:00...


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Julie, that's a classic. Saw him in person. Great comic relief among all of this. Thanks.


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## JonEisberg (Dec 3, 2010)

steve77 said:


> I agree that the Captain bears the ultimate responsibility for the ship and safety of the crew. But my feeling, at this point, is that I don't want to second-guess someone who had far more experience and knowledge of the situation as it developed than I do. I can't sit here in my warm, dry home and criticize the decisions he made without knowing why he made them. Or even what exactly those decisions were.


Well, looks like I'm not the only one who's mystified about this one...



> *Picton Castle captain questions Bounty being at sea during storm*
> 
> October 29, 2012 - 11:08am By BEVERLEY WARE South Shore Bureau
> 
> ...


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## chamonix (Jun 25, 2010)

Chef, I doubt I need to say this to you, but we can all use a reminder. CALCULATE YOUR RISKS CAREFULLY!
To all on the coast, be careful and good luck.


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## Cruiser2B (Jan 6, 2011)

Adventures of Salacia: Hurricane Sandy Day 3

some videos of our marina flooding, I think we got off fairly lucky. One last tide to go.

Let hope Sandy doesn't bring the damage to NE area like they predict.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

*NJ Gov Christie Chastises EM Officials Who Didn't Listen*

NJ Gov. Chris Christie has just publicly chastised those emergency management officials who didn't heed his warning. He said EM rescue efforts have been suspended until tomorrow and "if you can hear me... you'll have to just hunker down."

In Atlantic City some sought shelter in a building only a block away from the shore and "that area is now under water."

Christie had earlier ordered a mandatory evacuation but later rescinded it under pressure of local officials. In his press conference, he chastised those who didn't order a local evacuation.


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## steve77 (Aug 5, 2010)

JonEisberg said:


> Well, looks like I'm not the only one who's mystified about this one...


Oh, I never said that I wasn't mystified- I am. I'm sure we'll get more details in the coming days/weeks.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Having worked in Atlantic City for 18 years in one of the casinos, they are the safest place to shelter and they are on the boardwalk and beach. Sometimes the street ends flood due to the storm sewers being long pipes from street ends buried under the sand reaching out into he ocean. The governor was probably misinformed

The problem with nor'easter s and hurricanes for those of us on the east coast is wind and water

Water is divided into storm surge., usually felt in the northern quadrants of the onshore flow of a hurricane. And flooding. Most people who have never lived on a barrier island like Atlantic City, most Nj seashore communities, NC islands. Don't understand the true ways the danger exists for flooding. It does not come from the ocean side. 

A barrier island has a by or back bay behind it with an inlet somewhere. When a hurricane rides up the coast it's head flows NE winds pushing we're in the inlet. High tide occurs but the water cannot come out because of wind direction, and the next high tide comes into the back by on top of he previous one, a hurricane moves fast so this Galen's once, while a northeaster happens for 2-3 days thus 4-6 high tides on top of each other. Islands lie Atlantic City do not loos from the ocean side rather they flood from the bayside. Moving into the back or center of the island will not be prudent. Moving back just far nough o beat the storm surge is best.

Atlantic city is a large island called Absecon island and consists of 4 cities. AC, Ventnor, Margate, and Longport. i think the highest ground point s 10. Ft above sea level


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

We've decided that a nice boutique Napa red goes best with this hurricane. Things are looking up.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Not looking up here yet....need another 12-15 hours or so. Have a nice David Roth Pinot fr me.

Dave


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Well, its not really looking up here yet either. But its feeling better.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

I've been channel surfing the past 30-40 minutes. This is pretty big. It's on all the news channels, most are having almost exclusive coverage on it. CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, WGN and even MSNBC during their Politics Nation show. 

All, that is, except Fox. Fox was covering the attack on the US Embassy in Libya, the Romney campaign and how Obama is losing states were once a lock for him.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

JulieMor said:


> I've been channel surfing the past 30-40 minutes. This is pretty big. It's on all the news channels, most are having almost exclusive coverage on it. CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC, WGN and even MSNBC during their Politics Nation show.
> 
> All, that is, except Fox. Fox was covering the attack on the US Embassy in Libya, the Romney campaign and how Obama is losing states were once a lock for him.


Well, I just flipped over and FOX was on Sandy coverage. So, if anyone was political here, I'm afraid it was you.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

Here is a video from the coast guard rescue of the Bounty's crew showing dramatic scenes.
These guys are really Guardian Angels!


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

Ninefingers said:


> Let me know if you have some suggestions for these guys:
> 
> Toronto 2 St Maarten


For the Canadians in Haverstraw Marina:
There is an anchorage, the closest thing to a hurricane hole, on the Hudson about 1/4 mile south of Haverstraw Marina. It is locally called Bowline Point and is behind a water park that has a hexagonal gazebo visible from the water. 
The problem here is that the spit of land that separates this 'pond' from the river is not very high. There is a shoal in the middle to north side of the entrance. You hug the entrance to the south side when entering or leaving. If you look on google maps for Bowline Point you should see where the shoal shows up at low water.
The bright side is that there are some trees around this 2 or 3 acre pond that one could tie to. The down side is there may already be a boat (or 2) in there. 
Members of my club like to raft up their boats here in 'normal' conditions.
I would not want to be in their shoes.

Please pass this on to your Canuck friends.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

How much water is in that pond Caleb? The ENC charts have no depth info. With the wind forecast as it is: SE, anchoring over on the Croton side anywhere along the beach would probably keep them well protected. The big tide surge will come on tonight's high tide.


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## DivingOtter (May 5, 2012)

AC is now underwater. Its really bad here in ocean county. Alot worse than earlier in the day.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Minnewaska said:


> Well, I just flipped over and FOX was on Sandy coverage. So, if anyone was political here, I'm afraid it was you.


Correction - Apolitical.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

Some quick updates I'm hearing from around the Bay.

There is severe damage to homes and marinas on Long Beach Island.

On parts of the island the dunes have been overtopped and the ocean has reportedly met the bay.

Hope anyone who decided to ride it out on the island makes it through the night OK.

The USGS weather station at Barnegat Light reported wind gusts in excess of 80 miles an hour.

The tidal surge up Cedar Creek is up to 7 feet acording to USGS Tide Station.

It should be about the same surge for those who've gone up Forked River.

*Update on Shelter Harbor 10/31 3PM:*
The news is getting better for Shelter Harbor. Boats in the 12th street lot are OK. Boats in the lot behind the condos took the hit. One boat that was earlier reported missing has been found. The boat on C dock that was reported sinking is OK now (no other details). There's damage to the floating docks but they didn't float over the pilings as originally reported.


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Wind gust of 90 reported last night at Bay Bridge. Storm center (not an "eye" because it wasn't officially a hurricane when it came ashore and mixed with the cold front according to NWS) stalled over Baltimore area last night at midnight. Had we been aboard, we would have watched the low pressure peg the dial on our barometer (938 mb?) Water here at our marina is to the stringers; or about 2-3 ft above normal. No major casualties; a couple of shredded biminis. We and our boat are chilly but ok. Conserving power.


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## jimjazzdad (Jul 15, 2008)

wingNwing said:


> Wind gust of 90 reported last night at Bay Bridge... No major casualties; a couple of shredded biminis. We and our boat are chilly but ok. Conserving power.


Good to hear! Hope that life returns to normal soon for all the SN folks that were in Sandy's path. Sailors are a resilient bunch.


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

Thx JimJazz & JulieMor! We're taking the day off to rest, recover, put the boat back together and generally process the storm. And to raise a glass to all who were on duty yesterday: Navy, Coast Guard, LEOs ... and our excellent marina staff.


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## Ulladh (Jul 12, 2007)

We got lucky in the Philadelphia region, the center passed to the south near Wilmington DE, producing 55mph winds and a surge of 3 to 4 ft.
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Water levels are predicted to return to the normal range for the rest of the week.

Coastal NJ and NY City appear to have got the worst of this one.

Rick at TakeFive checked on my boat this morning and it was still on the stands, thanks Rick.

The section of the marina where the boat is located is under a few inches of water at normal high high tide.


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## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Yes, I did a brief tour of all the Essington boatyards and no boats tipped over. I saw a couple boats with shredded biminis because the owners left them up. After Irene I had seen bent and twisted metal, but this time just shredded cloth. Several powerboats had canvas enclosing their cockpits and left it up, and from a distance they appeared to fare just fine. As long as all edges of the canvas were secure (and stayed that way), it appears that things did not get shredded.

Flood level did hit a record in Philadelphia, reaching 10.62'. Previous record was 10.5'. Irene hit 10.0', which was equal to what it hit during a Noreaster in April 2011. So the Delaware River flood in Philly was the highest ever, but not by much, and comparable to peak floods we see every few years. So all the docks that I saw did not float off their pilings. [EDIT: I should add that the next flood at ~2pm could go back to the same level.]

My own boat fared better than I expected. We had absolutely no topside leaks - nothing in the battery compartment, nothing in the bilge, nothing under the v-berth hatch. It was a different story for Irene, where despite taping a bunch of seams, I got enough water to kick the bilge pump on. It looks like the speaker I sealed up a month ago completely eliminated the prior leak problem.

I'm hoping that all of you have similarly good news.


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## Yofy (Aug 15, 2007)

Our thoughts are with all of you riding out the hurricane. We hope that southbound sailors were able to find good shelter. It doesn't sound like much fun from over here. 

Manny and Robyn


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

*Re: Forked River & LBI Updates*

I just received an email from a friend who lives in Forked River, NJ. Evidently Silver Cloud Marina took a bit of a beating but most boats appear to have weathered the storm OK. Water got up into the parking lot at Tall Oaks but boats blocked up seem to be OK, so my boat should be OK. Fingers crossed.

Wilberts and the State Marina are still under water. Definitely a great job by Dave, Dennis and the crew pulling and prepping boats. These guys know what they're doing.

No word on marinas closer to the bay. Evidently Bay Ave is still flooded out. I'm going to try and get down later today to check on my boat if the roads are passable.

Water levels reported by the USGS tide station on Cedar Creek are at 7.25 feet above normal and not dropping. Probably a combination of rain water run off and water trapped in Barnegat Bay. I'd expect water levels on Forked River to be similar.

Long Beach Island didn't fair so well. What I've been hearing out of Shelter Harbor Marina in Beach Haven is pretty dire (see post #203). Evidently Morrisons took a pretty good hit as well. The picture below is a cell phone photo forwarded to me by a friend on the island. I don't have any more details on Morrison's but the photo speaks for itself.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Doing fine here. Worst appears to be over although system is parked north of Baltimore and needs to move on. High tide with south winds gavels us 3 ft above normal and washed over our piers and docks at 7 bit was manageable. Only one dock box broke cause the owner didn't put holes in the bottom. One more high tide to go and the water is emptying from this AM. 

Still no power so running of the batteries. Black cat propane heater getting a workout as the temps are in the low 40s. Glad the wind finally died off. Probably sty tonight and back to work tomorrow.

Haleakula is one tuff gal.

Dave


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## wingNwing (Apr 28, 2008)

*Re: Forked River & LBI Updates*

Jim, that is one UGLY photo!



JimMcGee said:


> I just received an email from a friend who lives in Forked River, NJ. Evidently Silver Cloud Marina took a bit of a beating but most boats appear to have weathered the storm OK. Water got up into the parking lot at Tall Oaks but boats blocked up seem to be OK, so my boat should be OK. Fingers crossed.
> 
> Wilberts and the State Marina are still under water. Definitely a great job by Dave, Dennis and the crew pulling and prepping boats. These guys know what they're doing.
> 
> ...


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

These photos were just posted by Southwinds marina.

Water looks to be about 2-2 1/2' in the parking lot. Docks under water. Most of the boats who decided to weather the storm there were tied in the lee of the condos. No photos from there so no telling how they made out.

Boats blocked behind the office. I'm wondering how high the water was during the surge. Notice the power boat on the right is shifted off at least one of its stands.









Looking out towards Forked River, the Beach Bar is on the left.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

This storm that was supposed to drop 2-4" of rain and give us 55 mph winds has seemingly just...well.. disappeared. It was almost calm this morning. The skies in The Adirondacks are clearing at present, very little rain has fallen. There's a little wind but Sandy seems to have scooted right by us. Not complaining, mind you, but this was the weirdest darned storm. The idea that a hurricane, packing 90 mph winds could hit NYC, just 250 miles south and then veer off to completely miss us is astounding. We and the folks in Vermont are breathing a sigh of relief that we did not get the "500 year" floods that occurred with Irene last year.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

smurphny,

The worst is probably over, but I don't think you've seen the last of this yet.

Post-Tropical Cyclone SANDY


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I think it is just headed due north instead of hooking back east up into the St. Lawrence Valley. It has every appearance of clearing out right now. I can't detect wind direction here down in the valley but would bet it's turning west and clearing out. I fully expected to hear the wind howling and the creek roaring this morning and maybe a ride over to the boat to see if it was still on its stands but it was calm as could be...strange.


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## JimMcGee (Jun 23, 2005)

*This is the first aerial of Long Beach Island New Jersey.

I don't even have words for this.

Chopper View Of Devastation In Long Beach Island And Surrounding Area « CBS Philly*


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Glad you pulled through it Jim. Will meet maybe next summer on our trip to Long Island and share some stories

Dave


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

I'm delighted to see so many who posted still posting, thus they made it through the storm and have time enough and power to post. Thanks Chef for your updates as the storm came through.

I see a glaring absence of CalebD, who posted that he lived near the red area on the SLOSH map. 

I hope his home is OK and that he is too busy and/or no power. Anyone have any contact/knowledge of Caleb?


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

*No Hurricane Warning for What Could Be the Most Expensive Storm in History*

Saw this on Accuweather today, a video made before Sandy hit. Part of the article:

AccuWeather CEO Barry Myers urged the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to reverse its decision not to issue hurricane or tropical storm warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina.

"To indicate that there is a landfalling hurricane and to issue warnings about it is the most effective thing that can be done to warn the public," Myers said.....

.....Not issuing such warnings has already led to mixed signals for both public safety officials and the public.

"Mayor Bloomberg was confused at one point over the weekend whether Sandy was a hurricane. *If the mayor of the biggest city in the United States was confused, emergency management and others certainly can be confused," *Myers added.

Scroll down past the article to see the video.

No Hurricane Warning for What Could Be the Most Expensive Storm in History


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Aw come on, no one was confused about its strength. Guess he should have read your posts here on SailNet. Next timne forward them to him.

Sandy was covered and talked about from days away. I have access to the NY TV stations and they were talking about flooding and surge 5 days out. Bloomberg certainly could and I am sure did call experts from the NHC many times. Unless you lived under a rock you knew this was called a superstorm, perfect storm, Frankenstorm. Everyone knew that this was a merge storm.

Why would the NHC call it a hurrican once it lost what defines it as a hurricane. Early on the were talking about it beconing and extra-tropical storm and why.

Actually it worked out for those homeowners in MD who had things happen to their homes with regards to their insurance and NOT being classified as a hurricane. It is my understanding that when it is classified as a hurricane a special provision kicks in in my insurance which works in the benefit of the insurance company.

Sandy and hurricane deductibles in Maryland - Baltimore Sun


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I agree that there was so much press about this storm, whatever it was called, that anyone who ignored warnings based on what it was called, had their head deeply buried in the sand. That said, it does seem like playing semantic games around what to call a storm is confusing and the NWS could have made it clearer to those who might be easily confused by the wording, that there was no change in the warnings about potential damage. In the future, NOAA probably ought to make sure that meteorological nuances don't even have the possibility of confusing the easily confused.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I have put a question into my insurance carrier for future reference. My policy is clear. There must be a tropical storm warning, or above, in effect at the time I haul out for coverage to apply. Coverage is half the haul out charges. 

In practice, what I've found, is the carriers have been willing to pay anyway, because they know it was in their best interest to encourage you to do so. It was either in Irene, or maybe Earl the year before, they sent me a letter asking me to acknowledge that they did not have to pay under the terms over coverage, but would anyway. I never got a clear answer as to why they needed this. In fact, there was a tropical storm warning in effect when I hauled, so I refused to sign it. They paid, but it certainly left me with the impression that they can and would deny coverage on technical grounds, if they felt it was in their best interest. 

In RI, we most certainly did get tropical storm force winds, but I do not recall there being a warning. It was clear we would expect this level of wind and I pulled for the winter, regardless. I'm not making a claim, but wonder what they would do.

If the NHC isn't going to call something with 74 knot winds a hurricane in the future, this could be an issue. I will let you know what they say.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

my cousin, phyllis schuyler beals, lost her boat--it vanished without a trace-- she was in a morgan area(????) marina, where she said was much much damage, and she is stilnot allowed into the area. 
she sent me this message, after i discovered her boat was a walkabout---


> :
> Hi Karen, wish I knew what happened, yes maybe she's landed atop a building somewhere. Some boats landed atop railroad bridges. I think I brought this on by renaming her. Original name was Heelin Laddie. 10 years no name. Last spring we painted Serenity Now astern (Seinfeld favorite of our family) & now she may lie at the bottom for all I know... My marina living pal (Ruben) continued to look for her. He will be doing diving salvage work also & says he will keep looking... I felt last night as if I didn't deserve to have a boat nor did I take my responsibilities seriously enough. Not much sleep. Ironically 5 vessels that rode out the storm on their moorings came through unscathed. Me I put her by marina up
> A sheltered creek area & with the full moon tide, 12 foot storm surge & 70-100 mph gusts it added up to disaster. Feel for the folks without homes though. Maybe next year is a break year from owning a sailboat- regroup & kayak or sailing canoe! Love ya,
> Schuyler


boat name: serenity now
please keep watch for her...

i dont know what marque boat she is..please help keep eyes open for my cousin!!??


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Happy to report that CalebD and his boat both survived the storm. He just got power back.


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

Approximately 2/3's of the moored boats in the Hudson off Nyack suffered mooring failures due to huge storm surge, wind and wave action. I had considered hauling our boat out but did not. Ironically, many of the boats that were hauled were toppled by the storm surge and winds. Amazingly, our boat survived on its mooring. I'm lucky to have only lost power for 5 days as many others are in much worse situations.

We are not used to being on the "wrong" side of a storm like this as they usually scoot well to our east. It has been a very difficult learning experience for the region.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Caleb....glad to hear you pulled through all right. Ive been waiting to hear from you. Sometime luck is really what determines thuings no matter how much we plan. I am glad the mooring worked out well for you.

Dave


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

CalebD said:


> Approximately 2/3's of the moored boats in the Hudson off Nyack suffered mooring failures due to huge storm surge, wind and wave action.


Are you referring to the mooring field in Upper Nyack as well?


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

weathertrack said:


> Are you referring to the mooring field in Upper Nyack as well?


I am referring to the mooring field in front of NBC and Hook Mtn. Boat Club. 
I have not been up there yet so I can't comment on the mooring field in front of Petersen's Boat Yard, which is just to the north (Upper Nyack). I would assume a similar rate of survival there though since the two areas are barely 1/2 mile apart but they may have fared better as Petersen's services their own moorings (I believe).


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Glad to hear you and boat made out OK. Must be a hell of a mess down there.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

CalebD said:


> I am referring to the mooring field in front of NBC and Hook Mtn. Boat Club.
> I have not been up there yet so I can't comment on the mooring field in front of Petersen's Boat Yard, which is just to the north (Upper Nyack). I would assume a similar rate of survival there though since the two areas are barely 1/2 mile apart but they may have fared better as Petersen's services their own moorings (I believe).


Thank you for the info.

Amazing to hear how lucky you were!


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

JulieMor said:


> Did they abandon a floating ship? Or was it sinking?


Amendment regarding sinking Bounty:

Doug Faunt, a crew member posted to Twitter: "The ship sank beneath us, but we swam free and mostly got into two rafts,".

So they must have stepped up into the life raft.

One crew member, a 42 year old woman, did not make it. And the captain is still missing. Apparently he liked to chase hurricanes...

Bounty captain talked about chasing hurricanes | The Chronicle Herald

This is unbelievable and sad...

CG photos of the sinking Vessel:


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

This is a more literary piece about the sinking of the "Bounty" and scant on details of the captains thinking, but it is good reading: Robin Beth Schaer | The Paris Review
Borrowed from Roger Long's post on sbo.org.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

CalebD said:


> This is a more literary piece about the sinking of the "Bounty" and scant on details of the captains thinking, but it is good reading: Robin Beth Schaer | The Paris Review
> Borrowed from Roger Long's post on sbo.org.


Thanks, that is a good read, not an accident report but a "painting" in language of one person's feelings and experience of being there.


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

I'm glad that some of you enjoyed the Robin Beth Schaer piece I linked above. I also enjoyed reading it.

My original estimate of 2/3's of the boats on mooring getting loose was a bit high. 
I visited Nyack today and saw the boats still there, the few that were placed ashore well above the river banks and one sunk in the mooring field. I'd guess that the survival rate of boats at their moorings during Sandy was well over 50%.


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## WanderingStar (Nov 12, 2008)

Power back tonight, seven days out. House seems warm, bright, noisy. Home and family fared well, boat took a beating, but still floats. She will be repaired. Hopes and prayers for those that lost houses and loved ones.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Glad you are safe and sound Wandering Star. 

Dave


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

The weather just won't quit. Here is the current forecast regarding the approaching Nor'easter;



> Statement as of 3:54 AM EST on November 06, 2012
> 
> ... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning
> through late Wednesday night...
> ...


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

Oh no! 
It's Sandy's ugly little sister Twisty!

Tidal departures of 3'? I just hope it moves through quickly.


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## weathertrack (Jun 28, 2011)

Photos before and after the Sandy disaster:

Hurricane Sandy: The Craziest Before and After Shots


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

weathertrack said:


> Photos before and after the Sandy disaster:
> 
> Hurricane Sandy: The Craziest Before and After Shots


Thanks for that link, since this is a boat forum I'll mention particularly that if you scroll 1/4 of the way down there is a before photo of hundreds of boats at finger docks. The after photo shows only about half a dozen boats at the docks and big piles of boats tossed all over the land. Boater's nightmare!


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

I don't like seeing a repeated pattern setting up with storms hitting the same devastated area. First Sandy, then the nor'easter with wind and snow. Now the ECMWF is showing another seemingly tropical type storm hitting the same area around Nov. 19th. A long way off, hope it doesn't happen, but the potential is being seen by the European computer model. I wouldn't be concerned, but I would keep my eye on it. Forewarned is forearmed. And the European has been hitting them out of the park, predicting both Sandy and the nor'easter.

The look may be similar, but the pressure is much higher than Sandy, and the winds less. The darn tropical season should be over by now!

Hey storms, come on up here where we have wood heat, chainsaws, and generators. We are in much better shape than NYC and NJ, we had almost no damage.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I know what you mean. We have had almost no significant weather here in the Adirondacks. These storms both bypassed us completely. People I know on LI STILL have no power and someone I know watched his house disappear as he swam away down on the Jersey shore. I won't fret though because we'll surely get our turn. Now I'm kinda glad I decided to stay put instead of sailing south this fall...maybe not.


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## JulieMor (Sep 5, 2011)

Sandy didn't bless us all with her presence but the fact her winds churned up almost record setting waves in Lake Michigan tells me she certainly tired!


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

ECMWF still showing a miserable looking storm driving wind and wave into the same decimated mid Atlantic area around the 20th, if anything it shows it tightening up. Then it has it hook out around Cape Cod, driving water in toward Boston, then hook back in and make landfall right on southern Maine where I pulled my sailboat. I've never been a fan of nor'easter type storms, too mean and unpredictable.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

After living on a barrier island on the South Jersey coast for almost 20 years, the northeasters of fall winter and spring were always the worst storms. Hurricanes would either blow by or land but there was only one high tide. The northeasters which either moved slowly or parked for a few days and spun were the damage producers.. Four or Six high tides drives a lot of water into the back bays and eos a lot of beach erosion. 

They are a fact of life for coastal MidAtalntic and Northeast residents not anything new

The Weather Channel has now decided to "hype" the hysrteria by naming these storms. IMHO I beleive in the long run this will be a diservice to people as it will desensitize them on named storms as well as northeasters

Dave


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

Sandy was so devastating to the Jersey shore because it hit in exactly the wrong spot on a moon tide. Not that it was any different than other nor'easters, except for the fact that it did a lot of damage because of those factors. No one in living memory can remember such destruction on the barrier island around Seaside/Lavallette and up to the Mantoloking bridge. They are just starting to allow people back on the island, busing them in from Tom's River for a short time so they can assess the damage.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Chef, I agree with you about the media hype. They aren't really trying help, they just like hype and overtime $$. And repeating and repeating and repeating! I don't follow them.

Thanks smurphy, I forgot to mention the moon. For this storm it's a quarter moon. While full and new moons increase the tidal effect, quarter moons decrease the tidal effect, so at least that is good. I realize many are aware of this, but it's worth mentioning because it's true.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

*Breaking: NHC Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy*

Following the criticism of the National Hurricane Center's handling of Hurricane Sandy and the non-issuance of hurricane warnings north of North Carolina, it has been decided that the NHC will now have more flexibility in their policy regarding the issuance of advisories.

"The main issue is: we want people to get ready for hurricane conditions, and that's why we are changing the definition of hurricane warning to be a little more inclusive of other things than just a hurricane," Chris Landsea, Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center

"Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right. But we're fixing it,"

"We realize this was not satisfactory and we want to make it better for next year."

Breaking: NHC Modifies Hurricane Warning Definition in Wake of Sandy


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

So this thread is still chugging along.

In defense of NOAA they had every other warning on the books posted for here except a Hurricane warning. I don't understand why they couldn't have just added one more warning though. 

To echo chef Dave's point about the multiple high tides I present a graphical representation of high/low tides at The Battery in NYC. I hate to think of what it might have been like if the storm were slower moving and we had one more high tide cycle to go through.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I still don't have a clear answer from my insurance company on this. They pay half the cost to haul, if there is a warning issued. I asked what coverage I have, if a warning is not issue (such as was the case on NJ!!). 

They said they would make a "case by case" decision. That's nonsense. Now that it seems the NHC may swing the other way and issue more warnings, do you want to bet they are very quick to change the definition of their coverage?d I know. Bad attitude.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Very interesting read. The National Weather Service (NWS) computers are only 10% as powerful as the European model computers, with a discussion of other problems within the NWS. One commenter agrees and says that the blog is being widely read and passed around in the NWS workforce.

Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Rebuilding the National Weather Service


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

From a blog response to the site posted by skygazer. It seemed no one is taking exception to it. Upsetting.



> 80-85% of the NWS budget is taken up by manpower, which supports the antiquated structure. A heavily antagonistic union, probably one of the most aggressive ones in the Federal Government, has been permitted to fight any action designed to streamline the agency...and the professional graves of the last two directors are littered with union influence.
> 
> Also, Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has granted in past years (not the last two) pay raises...authorizing the raises but never appropriating the funds for those increases, challenging the agencies to take that out of hide. With an 85% manpower rate, that leaves 15% to eat those raises. Consequently, the needed technology refresh and sustainment funds are raided to pay the bills, and performance suffers.
> 
> Quite simply, NWS doesn't need 122 forecast offices. Performance could be improved, money could go back to research/technology refresh, with many less offices, but the union and the local Congressman, who is willing to fight for "his office" is the root cause. Pretty simple fix. Last two directors tried to take it on with the "Conops" discussion, but the union took them on and found sympathetic ears on the Hill, which killed the innovation.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I've been down the Jersey Shore a couple of times since the storm, trying to salvage a friend's house. The devastation there is almost too much to convey in words. Municipalities have done a good job of coordinating the recovery but it's going to take a couple of years before it gets back to normal. The scale of the damage is going to cause a lot of reassessment of building codes and new bulkhead projects. The only silver lining is that, in this lousy economy, it's putting a lot of previously out of work construction crews back to work. 

With the apparent increased frequency of large, destructive storms and the rise in sea levels from melting ice, sea level populations around the world are going to have to start planning to deal with these things.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Nothing new here with Sandy. All coastal towns ever hit by a huge hurricane, suffered huge damage. It's just somewhat new for NYC area and there was more population density.

Funny you mention ice melt. The arctic is just a huge ice cube and water expands when frozen. Why, when it melts, would the water level go up? 

Nevertheless, I fully agree with updating building codes. Everyone in the country is paying the bills for people to live directly on the coast. Always have in modern America. If you want a house or building there, you should have to build it to be survivable. Understanding that it can never be perfect.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

I've been a skeptic all along on the global warming issue and don't trust the science but there does seem to be ice melt from glaciers which was not in the sea to begin with but seems to be dropping into the it. Not all the melting is from arctic regions where there is only water below the ice. I don't know the physics of the thing and really don't want to risk opening up the global warming debate yet again

Most of the houses along all our shores started out as little bungalows in a different day and age and have now transformed into high-end, luxury vacation homes for the wealthy. We certainly should not be subsidizing federal flood insurance for them but you know a lot of those homes are owned by the elite and their bought and paid for legislators. So what are the chances that average Americans will be relieved of the bill for their extravagance by rebuilding houses where they should never have been built in the first place? Quite a few of the houses on the Jersey shore were insured. A big bill is coming for repairs.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

It isn't so much the wealthy that actually pay something for the insurance that I think kills us. It's all the infrastructure, roads, power, and commercial losses. Those get passed back to the rest of us in higher insurance premiums, taxes and and utility costs.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

The tax bills around NYC and NJ will most certainly go up. There's been talk about some sort of flood gates which seems feasible right at The Narrows although Staten Island would still be unprotected. It would probably be cheaper than other alternatives. There was a lot of damage all the way up to Haverstraw in this storm.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

> I've been down the Jersey Shore a couple of times since the storm, trying to salvage a friend's house. The devastation there is almost too much to convey in words. Municipalities have done a good job of coordinating the recovery but it's going to take a couple of years before it gets back to normal. The scale of the damage is going to cause a lot of reassessment of building codes and new bulkhead projects. The only silver lining is that, in this lousy economy, it's putting a lot of previously out of work construction crews back to work.
> 
> With the apparent increased frequency of large, destructive storms and the rise in sea levels from melting ice, sea level populations around the world are going to have to start planning to deal with these things.smurphy


I have also made a few trips to the NJ coast. We took some genrators down to some of my friends who are trying to clean up and live there full time. I used to have a house in Ocean Vity, NJ..the island town next going south from Atlantic City/ Absecon Island. My old house is no longer standing as the storm blew it up. The devastation is staggering. As far as building codes. I agree they will change, The only thing that saved most of the houses was that Ocean City and many communities south of there 25 years ago established a very strict dune buhilding program and stayed with it. These dunes surved as the sacrifical property in s a storm like this. and the waves broke further away from the shoreline because of it. However there was no fighting the surge itself.

dave


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## Familycruisers (Dec 15, 2011)

Building codes already have changed, just most of the houses pre-dated those codes.


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## smurphny (Feb 20, 2009)

chef2sail said:


> I have also made a few trips to the NJ coast. We took some genrators down to some of my friends who are trying to clean up and live there full time. I used to have a house in Ocean Vity, NJ..the island town next going south from Atlantic City/ Absecon Island. My old house is no longer standing as the storm blew it up. The devastation is staggering. As far as building codes. I agree they will change, The only thing that saved most of the houses was that Ocean City and many communities south of there 25 years ago established a very strict dune buhilding program and stayed with it. These dunes surved as the sacrifical property in s a storm like this. and the waves broke further away from the shoreline because of it. However there was no fighting the surge itself.
> 
> dave


You were lucky to find a generator. I went to every Home Depot, lumber yard and Lowes up here in the Adirondacks with the idea of bringing one down with me so we'd at least have some light and power for saws. There was not one to be had. Somebody eventually brought one up from Florida AFTER we had all the walls/insulation ripped out by hand, mud shoveled out, etc. What a f%$*ing mess! There had been 3' of water in the house and there was 1/4" of slimy mud throughout. The garage looked as if it had been a washing machine and a neighbor's new Lexus had washed into the backyard! I had to dig through splintered pieces of the boardwalk all around the place.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

smurphny said:


> .....the bill for their extravagance by rebuilding houses where they should never have been built in the first place? .....


Doesn't the bible talk about building your house on a rock, or on sand? Something like - And the winds came, and the waters came, and great was the fall of it (the house built on sand). Better awareness back then??


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

"


> NOAA Administrator to Step Down
> 
> Wednesday, December 12, 2012 12:10 ET
> The administrator of NOAA, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, announced that she will step down from her position at the end of February of 2013. "


Quote from Accuweather Premium, a paid service. I'm sure the NOAA administrator step down has nothing to do with Sandy. 

But there have been lots of conflicting and confusing statements lately about a review panel, dismissal of the panel, internal reviews, etc.


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## skygazer (Sep 3, 2011)

Selected quotes from an accuweather news article:



> .. a phase diagram produced by Florida State University Associate Professor Bob Hart reveals that *Sandy was an asymmetrical warm-core system (a partially tropical system) at landfall and through central Pennsylvania.*
> 
> Nov. 13: Assessment team is slated to begin working on the evaluation of the NWS handling before and during Sandy.
> 
> ...


You can't fire me, I quit! LOL

Full article at free site with ads:

Timeline of Sandy, Controversy Surrounding the Storm


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

skygazer said:


> Selected quotes from an accuweather news article:
> 
> You can't fire me, I quit! LOL
> 
> ...


Maybe some fiscally responsible in the agency decided to not waste more taxpayer money and they will do the assessment within the nomal business that their job descriptions describe.

Dave


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