# Finances - Stock Market -- Cruising



## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Hi folks,

Here's something most don't wish to discuss publicly, and nor do I. But I will discuss it as its important, I have been through this before, and just at times when u have the hat you have to wear it.

Stocks around the world are not doing well and for a cruiser living off them it's a very difficult time.

I was cruising in the Pacific in 2008 when the Global Financial Crisis happened.

Many who successfully came out of it did not sell their quality stocks. The went and hid behind an island 🏝 until things stabilised. Reduced spending to zero or near zero.

Yes, we did not have Crypto then. I do not have any and would not be able to share any thoughts whatsoever about them, suffice to say many people have been told that things can't go to zero in a day when today we have seen that with the "stable coin" Luna Tera








For folks in Crypto it's a difficult time.

This thread is not meant for people to give financial advice, and any posts that do will be removed.
This thread is just to extend an arm to those in difficulties. There's lots of people in this situation but maybe not aware to you because few talk. Many are in it, so take comfort.
Find that metaphorical Island and cut the spending to zilch until we see the other side of it 😊

If you are currently cruising and are finding things feeling insurmountable pease send me a PM (private conversation). I can't do much but offer support and how we got through 2008.
😊

Mark


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

Lately when I feel crushed by the market drop I look up on my tracker spreasdsheet to see when that puts me back in time and did note how much better that is than what I planned for 5 years ago. It feels week, but helps ride it out.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

I believe there are money market accounts which are not linked to the market,


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## Dogscout (Jan 7, 2017)

Buy the ticket and take the ride. I have very much enjoyed watching the gains in the market for the past few years and I remember well October 1987 just like February 2020. My advice to anyone is to have a good Financial Advisor who can help you manage the falls as well as the gains.


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

The current market is particularly difficult for those who depend on income from stock/fund sales, which presently locks in recent losses. Switching now from stock funds to bond or money market funds does the same thing. If you're dependent on sales of crypto-based "investments" (parenthesis are my editorial addition) those losses are going to be catastrophic. Buy high and sell low ain't the way to go. If there is any way of avoiding selling low, like @MarkofSeaLife said, by reducing costs to the barest of minimum, and riding this out, you'll come out way ahead in the long run.


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## denverd0n (Jun 20, 2008)

Besides death and taxes, there are two other things that are certain -- the stock market will go up, AND it will go down. Right now it is going down. There is no doubt at all that it will eventually be going up again.

I think the big problem for a lot of people is that they get to fixed on what is happening right now. When it's going up, they think it is always going to go up. When it's going down, they think it is always going to go down. Stop being so fixated on the short term, and realize that stocks are a long-term investment (or, at least, they should be).

As Mark said, try to cut your spending. Try to avoid selling stocks, if you can. Mainly remember that this, too, shall pass.


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## AndyL (Dec 1, 2019)

Maybe it's like being stuck somewhere in an extended patch of bad weather. It's miserable but it does give you an opportunity to catch up on stuff and be ready for when the weather clears. Perhaps some planning time spent now will prepare you for making your portfolio stronger when the financial weather clears.


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

Anyone that has owned equities for any significant period of time has seen this many times. Yes painful in the short term but not a concern for those that don't panic.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

When the market goes up I to tell my wife "Look we made $3,000 last week in IMAGINARY money!"


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

Don L said:


> When the market goes up I to tell my wife "Look we made $3,000 last week in IMAGINARY money!"


You’re supposed to say “Look how much money I made last week!”


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

Don L said:


> When the market goes up I to tell my wife "Look we made $3,000 last week in IMAGINARY money!"


There have been many times I wish I could harvest the green without cutting the stock count. Diversification and quality stocks are the key. Never did like crypto. To me it was just a number in a computer file. We have been in the market for close to 40 years. So this bear market isn't new and shall pass. I think it will be a soft and soon landing considering how much 401k money enters the market each year.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

AWT2_Sail said:


> You’re supposed to say “Look how much money I made last week!”


Well I do say that, but I also say it isn't really money till you take it out.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

I just checked the S&P 500. Based on it I chose to just say that I haven't made any money since last April.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

I agree to the sit tight and economize theme.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Don L said:


> I just checked the S&P 500. Based on it I chose to just say that I haven't made any money since last April.


I checked and I now own a 12 footer without sails.... 

Mark


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> I checked and I now own a 12 footer without sails....
> 
> Mark


so still afloat


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

Hmmm... Let me check my portfolio. Yup, the same as it was yesterday. _Nadda_. Not trying to downplay the very real challenges for some folks, but sometimes it's good to be poor .

Inflation sucks though. Means one less craft beer per day so far, but if this keeps up I might actually have to start drinking boring beer. Now THAT would be a crisis!


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Don L said:


> so still afloat


Like my Scotch. On the rocks. 


Mark


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## oldmanmirage (Jan 8, 2022)

Since I'm still working, what runs through my mind is when will I get to finally stop ? I'm in the last few years before I truly retire, and if things went well I could maybe go sooner and get cruising. If things don't then I may need to work an extra year or even 2, which right now feels like torture.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

Well that always exists and your have to decide if you are going to go for it as there is always a risk. When I left 5.5 years ago I didn't have anywhere near the "wealth" recommended to "retire". But I risked it and it has all worked out as I never expected the market we have had the last 5 years and based my plan on 3% gains. Even with the drop this year the Market has been great over the last 5 years and it is expected to return to a more normal 5%/year gain. Just like all these ups and downs, now that it is down there is opportunity, but it involves risk.


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

Yes it has been a great 5 years. Even with the recent drop, the S&P 500 is up 50%.


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## tempest (Feb 12, 2007)

Malcolm Forbes once said in an interview during the 1987 crash something like. "For everyone out there Selling, someone is Buying"


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

tempest said:


> Malcolm Forbes once said in an interview during the 1987 crash something like. "For everyone out there Selling, someone is Buying"


Well there isn't anything to buy unless someone is selling


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## tempest (Feb 12, 2007)

Don L said:


> Well there isn't anything to buy unless someone is selling


Yes, I'm sure that was the point he was making


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

The smart buyers are buying low (like now) and the smart sellers are selling high (like earlier this year). Everyone else is either desperate or dumb. In the long run.


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## s_ruffner (Aug 5, 2019)

AWT2_Sail said:


> The smart buyers are buying low (like now)


Knife catchers you mean?


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

s_ruffner said:


> Knife catchers you mean?


Or dead cat bounce catchers. (dead cat bounce is a known term in the stock market world, not throwing shade onto cats)


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

s_ruffner said:


> Knife catchers you mean?


I would post a picture of my scarred up palm but I would get banned for grossing people out.


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## s_ruffner (Aug 5, 2019)

Skipper Jer said:


> I would post a picture of my scarred up palm but I would get banned for grossing people out.


It was a lesson I learned early, and though very dearly at the time, in hindsight, pretty cheaply. Mostly can't see the scars anymore. I concur about the cat at the moment, though I never try to time anything anymore (or attempt to beat a room of random monkeys throwing darts with stock picking prowess).


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

We just sold our house, closed end of March. I think we just about topped the market. Buuuut now our money is with a financial manager, rather conservatively invested. I am feeling somewhat exposed in this tumultuous period. Buuut, while not rich we have adequate resources. If we go down there will be a whole lot of people under us. Dark comfort in that thought.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

hpeer said:


> Buuuut now our money is with a financial manager, rather conservatively invested.


Is that finical manager young or old, rich or poor?

Personally I feel they are nothing but an extra 1% fee loss that really don't know anything more about the market that you do. They are just following some other financial guy who might have better info. Or they are gamblers who get to use your money and get paid whether they win or lose.


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## Barquito (Dec 5, 2007)

Don L said:


> Is that finical manager young or old, rich or poor?
> 
> Personally I feel they are nothing but an extra 1% fee loss that really don't know anything more about the market that you do. They are just following some other financial guy who might have better info. Or they are gamblers who get to use your money and get paid whether they win or lose.


I agree. We just pay a flat fee to CFP. The only danger is that he is jealous enough of our plans that he retires before we do!


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## AndyL (Dec 1, 2019)

I have never worked with a CFP so don't know what they do. There are occasions that I've thought it would be reassuring to have a second pair of eyes looking at my models to see if I've missed anything.


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## Flybyknight (Nov 5, 2005)

Buy! buy, buy now.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Don L said:


> Is that finical manager young or old, rich or poor?
> 
> Personally I feel they are nothing but an extra 1% fee loss that really don't know anything more about the market that you do. They are just following some other financial guy who might have better info. Or they are gamblers who get to use your money and get paid whether they win or lose.


My Wife has been with him quite a long time and me for +10 years. And it is impossible for him to know less than I do, I know nothing. Every time I tried the market I turned dollars into dimes. He has been steady positive.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

hpeer said:


> My Wife has been with him quite a long time and me for +10 years. And it is impossible for him to know less than I do, I know nothing. Every time I tried the market I turned dollars into dimes. He has been steady positive.


Well I guess if that. But I don't pick individual stocks, I do sector funds and mutual funds.

I met with an advisor once and he said I was doing good, but not "playing" in all the areas. The model he showed me changed me from knowing and understanding what and where my money was to instead being a confused mass of numbers.

One thing I believe is don't put your money into things to don't understand or which can not be easily explained to you.


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

Then there's the old joke: 
Q: How to you make a small fortune? 
A: Give a financial planner a large fortune.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Hpeer says he knows nothing doesn't want to control it and has 10 experience with that financial advisor. So it's right for him, and that's fine.

I found mine very, very expensive and my Growth profile had only ETFs and cash in it. I can buy ETFs! I don't need a planner to do that. And 10% was cash. Why do I need cash as an investment?
So I learned as much as I could from him. Set up my own small account to test my ideas. Then
made a change where I'm now in control of my life.
I'm now really happy, even with this downturn as I know it will come back up. I've moved more into my USA account and now have less in the Australian market. I still do have an ETF based portfolio but instead of Whole World or whole index they are strong growth. QQQ does the NASDAQ 100 and I know and daily use and appreciate all 10 of its top 10 holdings.
I have about 25 individual companies too all in Tech. No banks, miners, bio-tech, pharma, food.
I've only made a few mistakes. But it does take time to settle in. Years in fact. Probably to start when one is young and make mistakes with a few dollars they can re-earn.

At our age every dollar loss does hurt. And I don't think I've the patience or longevity of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger.


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

We went to a planner. He wanted to invest our money into "products" but wouldn't disclose what those "products" were. Hmmm...not buying a pig in a bag unless I get to see him. The very first stock I bought was Allegheny Airlines . I was reading Forbes and the article said it would go to 20 something. I bought around 15 and by golly it did go up but stalled prior to 20. We all know what happens to an airplane that stalls, tailspin and crashes. I sold around 10. I have come to believe that the majority of stock articles are pump and dump.


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## sailordoc89 (Sep 2, 2017)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> I checked and I now own a 12 footer without sails....
> 
> Mark


Hahahaha


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## Dogscout (Jan 7, 2017)

It took some interviewing and shopping around to find my Financial Advisor. That was about 10 years ago and I have been very very happy. He earns his 1% well because I have consistently made very good money on the investments. Of course I am not really talking about this year. Im 13% down YTD. Some of the investments have gained very well and some are now worth less than when I bought them, but overall I'm winning. 

When interviewing planners I saw the clowns that handed me a pamphlet and said If your a conservative investor we pick the stocks on the right page and if you'll accept risk then we pick the stocks on the left page. SOB probably used to sell used cars. Another guy had a big ass jug of coffee and a cigarette going when I met him. Looked like he would be dead in a month. He had managed investments for a friend and was successful, but I didnt see a long term relationship coming.

In any case I truely hope that this year improves, I dont want to go back and do any more consulting.


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## AndyL (Dec 1, 2019)

On the plus side, Treasuries and CDs are getting close to 3%. Inflation is the wildcard for us.


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

AndyL said:


> On the plus side, Treasuries and CDs are getting close to 3%. Inflation is the wildcard for us.


The only thing anyone could have done to not be down 13% YTD is to move money into treasuries and/or CDs or similar instruments before all the nonsense started. Some people did this right as COVID hit and scored big time. The ones who did this when Russia started up with Ukraine will also end up scoring. As far as market indicators, this was a pretty obvious one, Russia being Russia and being a major petroleum and NG producer exporter. If you missed either or both of these major market events, just sit tight and stop checking your account balances for a year.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

.




Crikey.​



.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

If I had one of those what is going to happen books like in time traveling movies, well .................. I wouldn't be on forums with the boat scum.


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

I need to switch my graphics card color pallet so red gets displayed as green.


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## jtsailjt (Aug 1, 2013)

Like hpeer said about his own investing, I too know almost nothing about investing so depend on a financial advisor. My most important criteria was to have someone I could completely trust and I happened to meet and become friends with him a couple years before we ever talked about me becoming a client of his. I knew him as a very honest and bright and well educated person but it turned out that he’s the head of the local UBS office and has been nationally recognized on a couple occasions. He was quite embarrassed when one of those recognitions resulted in him being put on the front cover of some investing magazine. He’s only a few years younger than I so we have fairly similar timeframes for retirement and I asked him to invest my money just as he invests his own. I see him socially, and occasionally we talk about the market and investing but every 6 months one of his assistants calls me to set up an appointment with him. I dutifully go in to his office or meet him for lunch and he explains the choices they’ve made and the reasoning behind it and what he’s expecting to happen but he almost might as well be talking to his dog about it because I know so little about investing and I’ve told him just that. He doesn’t second guess me when we talk about areas like engineering or flying or sailing where I have more expertise than he and I have no inclination to second guess him on anything to do with investing. I’ve thought of trying to learn about it so I could be more hands on but I always seem to have something else I need to do first. Besides, even if I really took it seriously and tried to learn all I could, about the best I might hope for is to get myself to the level of financial savvy that my financial advisor achieved as about a sophomore in college, maybe. So I think I’ll remain pretty ignorant about it and things will hopefully continue to work out ok. In times like this I tend to just not look at my investment accounts because I know it will seem depressing and I’m not going to do anything about it anyway. I do know my CFP/friend didn’t get us into crypto so I’m sort of relieved about that. Hopefully things will eventually turn around and I can once again look forward to occasionally logging on and seeing how much it’s gained. But until then I’ll keep my head stuck in the sand in regards to investing and stay busy with things that I find to be more interesting, like sailing. I do get that it’s best to limit withdrawals as much as possible while your investments have temporarily shrunk but I’m a couple years from needing to withdraw from investment accounts so I’m hoping that’s enough time for a rebound to occur. I’m also delaying starting my pension because for every month I wait, the amount I can collect goes up very slightly more than 1% until it maxes out at age 70. So my friend says I should avoid taking that until I really have to. For now I have no income so am trying to not spend much. I think I’d be eligible for welfare if I applied for it but I won’t. Another friend suggested that now, while my income is non existent so I’m in a low tax bracket, I should convert some 401K money into a Roth. I’ll have to remember to ask my CFP about that. Luckily I got my divorce over with and my boat pretty well ready over the past few years while I was still working so it’s back to living like a poor college student for me, at least for now.


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

*jtsailjt, *next time you talk to your adviser ask him if it is wise to keep 2 years of withdraws (RMD) in cash so one doesn't need to sell income producing assets in down turn times. We have managed our own and so for we are only down about 5% from all time high. I don't know if that is good or bad. Also I don't know if you are in the United States or not so the following may not apply, be aware that medicare preimums are based on your income. We got caught on that and it really hurt for a whole year. Had I known, the asset relocation would have been time structured differently.


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## jtsailjt (Aug 1, 2013)

Skipper Jer said:


> *jtsailjt, *next time you talk to your adviser ask him if it is wise to keep 2 years of withdraws (RMD) in cash so one doesn't need to sell income producing assets in down turn times. We have managed our own and so for we are only down about 5% from all time high. I don't know if that is good or bad. Also I don't know if you are in the United States or not so the following may not apply, be aware that medicare preimums are based on your income. We got caught on that and it really hurt for a whole year. Had I known, the asset relocation would have been time structured differently.


Thanks, I will ask him thst question but that’s sort of what I did on my own before retiring, stashed a few years worth of cash in a savings account that I’m now living off. I just started Medicare too and was shocked by the IRMAA I had to pay. But fortunately a friend mentioned form 44S to me so I downloaded it and filled it out and sent it in and about 6 weeks later my Medicare cost was reduced to reflect my current lack of income, rather than what it was 2 years ago. 

For those in the US who may not be aware, when you become eligible for Medicare at age 65 the government assumes your income is still the same as it was 2 years ago and increases your Medicare premiums accordingly. For me it was about 3 times the normal amount! 😳. But if you’ve retired so your income is less, all you have to do is fill out that form 44s and your premiums get adjusted back down. Then they make the same erroneous assumption about your income again the next year so you have go once again send in that form to knock your premiums back down. Technically not a financial planning issue but good to be aware of while you consider financial decisions as you near retirement.


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

With the market recovering it is time to start thinking about what the growth reduction/stoppage of the population is going mean to the demand for goods and the cost of labor.


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## danstanford (Aug 3, 2010)

Don L said:


> With the market recovering it is time to start thinking about the growth reduction/stoppage of population is going mean to the demand for good and the cost of labor.


Could you elaborate on your point Don? Are you predicting a reduction in population or a reduction in the growth rate or something else?


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## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

danstanford said:


> Could you elaborate on your point Don? Are you predicting a reduction in population or a reduction in the growth rate or something else?


Reduction in population growth and even reduction in population. That is going to reduce demand just from number of buyers. Add to that the reduction of Market pusher buyers in the 20-35 age group main buyers is going to be starting in 2025. Universities are already concerned about how that is going to effect them.

With decreasing population growth rates country economies can not grow as there aren't workers to fill new jobs so growth stops. The US is already at that tipping point as we can not even fill the open jobs now. So to get workers companies will have to steal from other companies and that is wage inflation that will drive up all costs. But who is going to be willing to pick up the trash etc.????

Japan has been in decline for over 20 years because of population. China picked up on this, but there 1 child thing is coming up bite them on not having workers (China population growth is going to drop fast as young men greatly outnumber women)

There is no real model for this as in the history of man as there has never been a declining buyer population and a near full employment.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

@jtsailjt 
On your first post: Excellent  

On the other posts, I know nothing of 401K, Roth, Medicare etc. These things are so country specific. My GF is French and it's impossible for me to batter my head against their crazy system. 🤣🤣🤣 
I tell her if she gets sick or loses a leg take Vitamin C (double dose for loss of leg). 

Mark


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

Re Population, 

How clearly do I remember the fear of the 1970s where were all going to die of famine. It started immedietly after the we're all gunna be Nuked. 

If it becomes a problem governments will do as China and stop the ridiculous anti-childten laws which force women to work. (not talking about recent US court rulings). 

We are a growing affluent world with masses more leisure time & post retirement leisure time. We should be all celebrating. 

I'm celebrating that I can invest some money and live in relative bliss compared to every generation before me. 


Mark 😊


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I became aware of the rapidly approaching global population crash a number of years ago. I really think it's something we as a civilization, and as a species, are woefully ill prepared for. Outside a few very brief, and mostly local events, we've never faced the challenge of population decline. We know how to manage growth, but we have no experience dealing with decline.

The fertility rates in pretty much every developed nation has been well below replacement rare for decades now. The only way most of our countries grow is through immigration. But as the rest of the world moves below replacement rate fertility, this resource is going to quickly dry up.

It's going to be interesting times indeed...


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

If this global population crash is coming, it still seems a bit of a ways off...



https://news.yahoo.com/un-global-population-reach-8-203012017.html



Mark


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

colemj said:


> If this global population crash is coming, it still seems a bit of a ways off...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes, this is the kind of headline that keeps us blind to the coming wave, or rather trough, of global population. Regardless of who's prediction you believe, the world is headed for peak population very rapidly. Some demographers indicate we could peak as early as 2050. The outside range is around 2100. Either way, it is a blip in time that is coming at us very fast.

Once population peaks, and global fertility rate drops below replacement of 2.1, decline will come very fast; within a few generations. Outside of the couple of ancient genetic bottlenecks **** sapiens seem to have experienced, we've never dealt with the coming situation.

ADD: The forum software censors the word "H0m0" ... really?


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Doesn't sound like most of us will have to deal with it. Not that many of us are in positions to help if we wanted to...

Mark


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

colemj said:


> Doesn't sound like most of us will have to deal with it. Not that many of us are in positions to help if we wanted to...


This is true ... all except the Elon Musks of the world who will likely have transitioned to full cyborg by then ... if he's not already .


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## danstanford (Aug 3, 2010)

Not that many want to hear about it, but the most causal factor in the deterioration of our Planet's ability to support human life is population growth. Many believe that all the greening of our behaviours will be ineffective if population growth is not stopped and perhaps reversed.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

MikeOReilly said:


> This is true ... all except the Elon Musks of the world who will likely have transitioned to full cyborg by then ... if he's not already .


Well, Elon is in a position to help now apparently. He is on his 10th kid by several women, and has stated that he is intentionally doing this to help prevent a population crash. 

Most of us don't have the financial means to support 10 kids and several women, let alone have a partner who allows us to keep having kids with different women.

Mark


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

danstanford said:


> Not that many want to hear about it, but the most causal factor in the deterioration of our Planet's ability to support human life is population growth. Many believe that all the greening of our behaviours will be ineffective if population growth is not stopped and perhaps reversed.


There is a difference between stopping and reversing population growth and what Mike is talking about. Stopping and reversing population growth is what China did, and it is just a matter of limiting the number of kids being born. What Mike is talking about is the fact that fertility rates are falling pretty rapidly in general. This means the ability to make children at all. Once this drops below 2.1 kids/woman, the world population will crash in a generation or two.

Not just reverse a bit - crash to the point of not being able to hold together civilizations at all.

The world fertility rate is 2.4 right now. To put the trend in perspective, it was 5.0 in 1965. In just the US and Canada, the rate is ~1.5. It is at or below 2.1 in almost all developed nations. High rates in Sub-Sahara Africa is the only reason it isn't below 2.1 globally. Unfortunately, high birth rates in poor and strife-torn countries only makes matters worse.

Mark


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

What Mark said .

The rate of global population growth has been slowing since the 1970s. By all predictions the rate will slide to the negative soon, and population will peak. Once we go below replacement rate (2.1) we'll decline quickly. So this is a problem with a solution in sight.

While population numbers are a primary driver of the challenges to the global biosphere, it's not as simple as all that. It's not sheer numbers, but total resource use, which is the issue. And we in the developed world use a lot of resources -- way more per capita, _and_ in absolute terms -- than those folks where population is still increasing. 

So while getting global population under control is an essential development, the far more relevant issue for folks like us has to do with the intensity of resource use required to sustain our lives.


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

colemj said:


> Well, Elon is in a position to help now apparently. He is on his 10th kid by several women, and has stated that he is intentionally doing this to help prevent a population crash.
> 
> Most of us don't have the financial means to support 10 kids and several women, let alone have a partner who allows us to keep having kids with different women.


I wonder if we'll start to see the Musk's of the world as some sort of demographic heroes, given his baby-making propensity.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

Interesting. QQQ has lost 28.5% of it's value since the first of the year. The S&P lost 20.4% over the same time frame.


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## danstanford (Aug 3, 2010)

_By all predictions the rate will slide to the negative soon_

Soon is a pretty broad term so I will not attempt to quarrel with this assessment. However, the bulk of the reading I have done says the world's population *growth* will not hit zero till around 2100.


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## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

danstanford said:


> _By all predictions the rate will slide to the negative soon_
> 
> Soon is a pretty broad term so I will not attempt to quarrel with this assessment. However, the bulk of the reading I have done says the world's population *growth* will not hit zero till around 2100.


Yes, that was my point above. It will happen, but not in my lifetime, so I don't have to worry about it or change my lifestyle. While that statement sounds wrong for things like climate change, etc, there really isn't anything I can do at this point in my life to increase the human fertility rate.

Mark


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## AWT2_Sail (Oct 12, 2021)

colemj said:


> Yes, that was my point above. It will happen, but not in my lifetime, so I don't have to worry about it or change my lifestyle. While that statement sounds wrong for things like climate change, etc, there really isn't anything I can do at this point in my life to increase the human fertility rate.
> 
> Mark


Well, you could do something about it but you’d need to find some willing co-conspirators…This would of course affect your finances, which finally brings us back in thread…


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## MikeOReilly (Apr 12, 2010)

I just noted that the most recent UN analysis of peak population (UN World Population Prospects) is now saying the most likely year this will happen is actually 2086.

From Our World in Data:


> In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086 at just over 10.4 billion people.











Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects


Explore the key highlights from the UN’s latest release of its world population estimates.




ourworldindata.org





The UN analysis is usually seen as the most conservative. Many demographers are suggesting it could happen sooner. But regardless, it's coming fast. 

What this will mean for our economic systems is way above my pay grade. But I suspect it will further challenge the principle of perpetual growth that underlies our economies. I suspect that ultimately this will be a good thing for the humans that remain, and the planet as a whole. But any foundational change like this is bound to cause massive disruption and harm in the transition periods. Probably won't be fun in the medium term.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

GeorgeB said:


> Interesting. QQQ has lost 28.5% of it's value since the first of the year. The S&P lost 20.4% over the same time frame.


S&P 500 CAGR (ex-dividends) since 1950 = 7.8%
I think QQQ or QQQM are much better. 

Got to have the extra volitility to have the higher growth. 

Mark 😊


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## Skipper Jer (Aug 26, 2008)

Mmmm....low birth rate? Will the Social Security Ponzi scheme collapse sooner than 2086, not that I'll be around to say I told you so.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

Tough comparison as QQQ has only been in existence since 1999. The NASDAQ 100 is pretty much all about growth stocks. With companies like Google, Facebook, Apple and Tesla it is certainly a high flyer. But for my time in life, I like the idea of generating income without having to sell off principal. I'm a value investor these days. The Australian market intrigues me. How are you invested there?


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

Can anyone say "correction"? Those of us that have been investing for some time have seen this before. I retired in 2006. Anyone remember what happened in the next couple of years? Even after this recent downturn, my investments are worth about 3 times what they where when I retired. Am I worried? Not even a little.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

GeorgeB said:


> I'm a value investor these days. The Australian market intrigues me. How are you invested there?


I'm a long term growth investor. Google, Amazon, Apple are the cornerstone, IMHO, of a long term growth company... They are almost Value. 

The difference in Australia is we have great tech companies but not good enough to be as big as the US ones. 

We have ETFs that are the same as QQQ., ones that follow S&P etc etc... 
But we can't invest in the individual US stock. 

I have a load of international ETFs. 

So about a year ago I opened a Charles Schwab account and now invest in any US company I want. 
As far as I am aware, any person can do this as long as they are careful with the tax considerations. Australia & the US have an (anti) Double Taxation Treaty. So I can invest directly in the USA markets and only pay the tax that's applicable in Australia (except for dividends which the US has a 30% withholding tax). That doesn't worry me as I'm investing for gains not dividends. 

I know, and appreciate, the dividend investor path. It's fine. A good yielding dividend company portfolio can be fantastic for a retired cruiser. 
Consistant earnings from some of the world's most established companies. 

As Jim says, it's expérience in the market that let's us not be worried about a 2008 type event. But it's tough watching the damage even though we know it will be OK next year. 😅

(sorry for typos, I'm writing in my phone) 


Mark


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## AndyL (Dec 1, 2019)

The S&P 500, had a long period of stagnation between Sep 2000 and Feb 2013. From then it's been a wild ride up. Hopefully we get a quick recovery but we may not. I don't think we can predict either way.

I guess that sounds a bit negative - sorry  But maybe it's useful to take a hope for the best, plan for the worst type approach.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Dan,

RE population driving decline. 

I may not want to hear it, but it is the truth.

Alwo re: population decline is unlikely to be evenly spread. It seems most of the world will he level ir falling while Africa will continue to increase. We MAY be looking at another “out of Africa” migration event.

Not likely in my lifetime, but I am old.


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## JimsCAL (May 23, 2007)

AndyL said:


> The S&P 500, had a long period of stagnation between Sep 2000 and Feb 2013. From then it's been a wild ride up. Hopefully we get a quick recovery but we may not. I don't think we can predict either


Looks like you picked a period that included 2 big corrections. The dot com bubble and the 2008 recession. If you change the starting point to go back to say 1995, things look very different.


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## AndyL (Dec 1, 2019)

JimsCAL said:


> Looks like you picked a period that included 2 big corrections. The dot com bubble and the 2008 recession. If you change the starting point to go back to say 1995, things look very different.


Yes, you're absolutely right.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

Mark, thanks for the write-up. It was very thoughtful. I didn’t realize non-US citizens couldn’t invest directly in the market. Does that also apply to mutual funds and is that why you invest in ETF’s? I am dying of curiosity on how (and when) you convert from Schwab to checkbook, but that is way too personal of a question.

I use the definitions of “value stock” and “value investing” I learned in B-school, so we have a fundamental “Oz –‘Merican” language problem. “Value stock” is one that is trading in low PE multiples and one that returns dividends to owners. These investors are using a slew of ratios and tools to determine the viably of a company. Bu this definition, a company that doesn’t issue dividends cannot be defined a “value stock”. There is nothing wrong in growth companies. These investors are investing in the future prospect of earnings and for the stock value to ever increase.

I’m a Silicon Valley guy and am well aware of the roller-coaster ride that is high tech. I've seen many waves come and go. Apple shares languished at under a buck for twenty years - all through their computer era. It wasn't until the IPhone did the stock finally take off. Tesla came close to bankruptcy in 2018, not so long ago. Everybody is a genius when running the bulls. The real challenge is walking through bear territory.

Back in the 90’s, I was working in business development at a specialty electronics company and were competing an ESM system on the Collins class. One of the things the MOD was big on was local partnerships of which we had no luck in finding. The tech business base was much too small. For the Australian markets I was thinking more in the terms of resource extraction as there are a lot of mining operations down under.

In terms of forecasting the future, the 2008 financial market meltdown isn’t going to happen this time. What could very well happen is a repeat of the 1970’s-80’s when inflation was last in the eight percent range. If that happens, stand by for heavy swells. When looking up your stuff, I stumbled over the ARCA Oil and Gas Index (XOI). One of the few things that are going up this year! Hot stock tip?


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

GeorgeB said:


> Mark, thanks for the write-up. It was very thoughtful. I didn’t realize non-US citizens couldn’t invest directly in the market. Does that also apply to mutual funds and is that why you invest in ETF’s? I am dying of curiosity on how (and when) you convert from Schwab to checkbook, but that is way too personal of a question.
> 
> I use the definitions of “value stock” and “value investing” I learned in B-school, so we have a fundamental “Oz –‘Merican” language problem. “Value stock” is one that is trading in low PE multiples and one that returns dividends to owners. These investors are using a slew of ratios and tools to determine the viably of a company. Bu this definition, a company that doesn’t issue dividends cannot be defined a “value stock”. There is nothing wrong in growth companies. These investors are investing in the future prospect of earnings and for the stock value to ever increase.
> 
> ...


Hi George, 

Lots to discuss there, but I'll wait till I get the laptop out, it's impossible on a phone. 

😊😊


Mark


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