# What does "Chance of Thunder Showers" really mean?



## miketucker (Mar 23, 2011)

I sail in Lake Ontario on a Hunter 36, based in the Outer Harbour Marina in Toronto. This is my first full season of sailing. This past weekend my wife and I made the 25 NM trip south across the lake to Niagara-on-the-Lake for an overnight stay. We had beautiful weather both ways (although a little more wind would have been nice).

We almost didn't make the trip because the forecast was calling for "Chance of thunder showers" for most of the time we would be sailing. I checked the Environment Canada radar before each crossing and everything looked clear, and as it turned out everything was fine. But those forecasts made me very nervous and had me constantly scanning the skies for approaching thunderheads (which never materialized).

How dangerous is it to be caught out on Lake Ontario if a thunder storm does develop? I'm fairly confident in my ability to handle the boat in the rain/wind/waves that might be encountered (assuming I have enough advance notice to get the sails properly reefed or even dropped completely). How worried should I be about lightning?


How seriously should I take warnings of 'chance of' thunder showers/thunder storms? Did I just get lucky over the weekend? What sources of weather forecasts are reliable in my area? I check the Marine Forecasts for Lake Ontario, and use the Environment Canada weather radar. Most of the 'possible thunder shower' warnings were coming from The Weather Network, it occurred to me that maybe they are very 'conservative' with their predictions, preferring to predict possible rain and have the weather turn out to be nice than the other way around? That seems generally sensible, but it almost cost me a very nice weekend of sailing.

Mike


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## Barquito (Dec 5, 2007)

I would imagine that if you like playing the odds, it would go something like this: Say there was a 30% chance of thunderstorms. In ten trips across the lake you would get nailed in three times. Of those three, maybe one would be no big deal, and one would be hair raising. Having the skills and a boat that can handle most any wx (short of a long November gail, or the Chi-Mac storm) would make me comfortable.


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## tommays (Sep 9, 2008)

Well

Last night it went from a sunny 5 knots

To god help anybody in the way 40 knots and downpour

To 5 knots and sunny in 45 minutes 


And pretty much the same thing today nice day right now BUT towards evening another system will be passing through 

Without being able to look at weather radar its tough to make a call on what your in for


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## Donna_F (Nov 7, 2005)

Sometimes it means they're just guessing.

On the Chesapeake (and at my house in PA), I've noticed that if the forecast is 50% chance or below, we *probably* won't get rain, but I keep an eye out. Anything above that and I take it as a definite and plan accordingly.

I've never sailed on any of the Great Lakes but my understanding is that storms can be extreme. I would suggest that you start paying attention to the weather (at home and at the boat) as a normal part of your day, not just when you want to go sailing. Learn the prevailing winds, how the environment changes leading up to a storm. Think about it until weather becomes second nature to you.

Three days before a planned trip, even a day sail, I start looking at the weather. In the northern hemisphere most systems move west to east. So if I see a storm tracking across the upper midwest, it may be strong enough to keep moving towards the mid-atlantic without breaking up. I keep an eye on things until I leave the dock and then every so often I'll listen to the marine forecast while I'm on the water. The Chesapeake is notorious for summer squalls.

A good barometer is also a handy thing to have on board. It's not just falling barometric pressure that you have to watch out for, but how fast it falls. Quickly and something's up.

Sudden change in wind direction or temperature sometimes means a front is nearby.

Get a good weather book or take a class to learn how to read the weather. It could save your life someday no matter how much you think you can handle your boat in a storm.

_Heavy Weather Sailing_ by Adlard Coles is popular and there are others. I think the Pardys wrote a book on sailing in heavy weather. I have their video on the subject.

In the end, if my gut says don't go, I don't go. I try to be educated enough to know what to do should I get caught in a storm, but many times I've made the decision not to go and sat at the dock listening to maydays on the radio. The few times I did go, I had a miserable sail. Others will disagree and love the challenge and excitement, but I prefer to have my boat and myself and family around to sail another day.


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## RobGallagher (Aug 22, 2001)

miketucker said:


> I sail in Lake Ontario on a Hunter 36, based in the Outer Harbour Marina in Toronto. This is my first full season of sailing. This past weekend my wife and I made the 25 NM trip south across the lake to Niagara-on-the-Lake for an overnight stay. We had beautiful weather both ways (although a little more wind would have been nice).
> 
> We almost didn't make the trip because the forecast was calling for "Chance of thunder showers" for most of the time we would be sailing. I checked the Environment Canada radar before each crossing and everything looked clear, and as it turned out everything was fine. But those forecasts made me very nervous and had me constantly scanning the skies for approaching thunderheads (which never materialized).
> 
> ...


As I understand it; A 30% chance of thunder showers means that there is a 30% chance that any one place in the forecast area will be hit by a thunderstorm. In other words, the thunder showers will most probably be out there, but, there is only 1/3 of a chance they will come over you.

I also look for the marine forecast that says high wind, dangerous lightning, hail, or waves that will be X% higher than predicted. That stuff often comes with small craft advisories.

A smart phone is a big help. I use Wunderground.com

As for getting struck by lightening, I'm in Fisher's Island Sound, CT. so I don't know if being in fresh water is a factor. I have a keel stepped mast and getting anywhere near it in lightening makes me nervous, to say the least.

Then again, sailors drown, get run down by power boats, get hit in the skull by a boom, and do untold damage to their livers every year. I have yet to read about one getting hit by lightening. Sailboats yes, sailors?.... so, of course, I get the bright idea to google it...

Laser sailor gets struck by lightning | The Daily Sail


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## sailortjk1 (Dec 20, 2005)

> How dangerous is it to be caught out on Lake Ontario if a thunder storm does develop?


The Great Lakes are not to be taken lightly. Have seen or heard of the recent tragedy in the Chi/Mac Race?
We routinely sail longer distances on the Great Lakes. If we have a trip planned and there are scattared showers amd thunderstorms, we generlly take our chances, but than again, we have many years of experince under our belts. If we are on our marina and simply want to go out for a day sail and there are thunderstorms in the area, we probably stay secured to the dock.
Tommays gave you a fine example 5 knots to 40 knots in a matter of minites.
You also received excellant advise from DRF. Make sure you and the boat are preparred everytime you go out. You never know what might happen.


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## SailKing1 (Feb 20, 2002)

Living in VA Beach between the ocean and the bay we have a chance of showers everyday during the summer. So I have taken "chance of showers" to mean because the heat from the pavement is going to cause a sea breeze and the subsequent drawing of moister into the air, there's a strong possibility that we will have showers at the end of the day. And we typically do. The question becomes where, for how long, and how severe. Hence the common reference to bay squalls that last for 10 to 15 minutes. 

I would think living on Lake Ontario you get the same. We typically do not pay much attention to it unless there is a storm front that is moving our way from elsewhere.


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## welshwind (Feb 27, 2005)

I have a theory about Chance of Rain. I've noticed that our weatherpeople seem to use Chance of Rain/Thunderstorms much more often than in the past. I've concluded that if there is even the slightest chance, they now will say 'Chance of ...' whereas before they would say "Partly Sunny" or something like that. I believe that is because when they said "Partly Sunny" but it rained, people were upset with them. If they say "Chance of Rain" AND IT DOESN"T RAIN, people are happy. And they come out looking more like winners  even though they are still wrong.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

As the weatherman says: Tomorrow, the weather will be either sunny, raining, stormy or blizzard, it all depends on the weather. Just be prepared and have Plans B and C ready.

If for day sail, I seldom pay much attention until the hour I set sail. Just get a mental picture what is weather pattern looks like. i go out regardless. A proper sail area is the key, be prepared to duck into a safe harbour or sail to an open area. 

My son and I used to love to sail our 14.2 ft Catalina in 20 to 30 kn storm with horizontal driven rain. We almost turtled her every time. It is good that it was not like a Hurricane, we knew that the storm will only last half hour, we just have to hang on to the boat.   . Learning how to prepare and practice the prudent task improve our survival skills in the big pond.


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## Boasun (Feb 10, 2007)

It means: You are going to get wet with the possibility of lighting strikes and some wind.


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

Boasun said:


> It means: You are going to get wet with the possibility of lighting strikes and some wind.


Hahaha.... that is funny.

I once had a captain that I was crewing. He dodged the rain clouds every 20 minutes. We were in a moon lit sky and not much wind. Everything we tacked to avoid the black clouds, the jib was caught between the mast and staysail. I had to get up the bow and fix it. After the fifth times, I asked if his boat will melt when the rain hits.

I hate to challenge the captain. But sometime it is necessary to conserve my energy for the unpredictables.


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## tempest (Feb 12, 2007)

Around here " Chance of" usually means go sailing. I've been watching their language for a long time. When they upgrade to " Likely" I will take additional notice.

As has been noted, usually just about everyday in the summer, we'll get a "chance of" rain and or thunderstorms. The risk is higher in the evenings that something could happen...more often than not, you can get where you're going..or get a good sail in before anything happens.


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## welshwind (Feb 27, 2005)

rockDAWG said:


> I once had a captain that I was crewing.


I don't even want to know


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## jsnaulty (Jan 18, 2011)

in the mid chesapeake, if the weather says chance of thundershowers, that means it's summer


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## rockDAWG (Sep 6, 2006)

welshwind said:


> I don't even want to know


Most of them are real good.  Either way, I learned for the good, the bad and the ugly. unfortunately, never with the beautiful. * Any red head 20's something female captains, I am yours. *

What matter is, I live and laugh about it.


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Sounds like you did exactly the right thing. Any four or five hour passage should be easily handled with a quick weather briefing prior to departure. 

The Chi-Mac tragedy has been referenced a few times, but that isn't entirely comparable. First, that is a 300+ nm race, which is much harder to predict. Secondly, the boat that foundered had a handicap with the extended wings.

In any case, one should practice heaving-to or have other storm preparation ready to go. Most T-storms will move over in less than one hour, often much less.


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## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

The good news is that between Toronto and Niagara -On-The Lake there are any number of harbours to duck into. If the weather looks iffy, always have a handle on where the nearest port of refuge is. Don't be afraid to be prudent. Plan your refuge when you see black clouds and rain in the distance, not when it is over your head and hitting you horizontally at 40 knots.


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## davidpm (Oct 22, 2007)

RobGallagher;760232 and do untold damage to their livers every year. [/QUOTE said:


> Whatever could you mean.


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

"chance of" really means "We don't know where they're going, it could be here."

Or as the sailors say, a crapshoot. How lucky do you feel?

The real problem isn't the thunder or the showers, but thunder means there will be lightning, and "chance of being struck by lightning" is what would bother me.

that's when you have to pop your head up and make your own decision. How does "a crapshoot on getting fried" sound? Better or worse than "chance of thundershowers" ?

Yeah, but they probably couldn't say it that bluntly on the radio.


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## miketucker (Mar 23, 2011)

Thanks for the responses everyone. A few comments:

Bljones: I'm not sure what route you would recommend between Toronto and NotL, but the route I took was almost due South, straight across the lake. For the first half of the journey, the closest port is to turn around and go back to Toronto. For the second half of the journey, the closest port is to keep going to Niagara-on-the-Lake. So I didn't have any 'safe harbours' to duck into. I guess you could sail around the western edge of the lake, but that would at least double your distance and travel time, turning a 5 hour crossing into a 10 hour trip. Is that what you're recommending?

I agree with the comments that you should be ready to handle the conditions you're likely to face before going out. If I'm not ready to handle 45 knot winds if a thunderstorm strikes, I shouldn't be out. I think I need to work my way up to that sort of wind, although I've been out on days with 35 knot gusts, I wasn't exactly comfortable.

I'd like to hear more about lightning strikes. This is what was really concerning me. Rain could be uncomfortable, and very high winds are potentially dangerous if not handled properly, but the chance of getting hit by lightning was what was really freaking me out. If you do get caught in a thunderstorm, how likely are you to get struck? Are you any safer sitting back at the marina? What do live-aboards do when a thunder storm rolls through? I suppose at the Marina at least there are lots of other masts for the lightning to hit instead of your own, but is that good enough?

If a boat does get struck, how disastrous is it? I expect your electronics would get fried, but are those aboard likely to suffer injuries? Is the boat likely to be damaged structurally, and possibly risk sinking?

Mike


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## Donna_F (Nov 7, 2005)

miketucker said:


> ...
> 
> I'd like to hear more about lightning strikes. This is what was really concerning me. Rain could be uncomfortable, and very high winds are potentially dangerous if not handled properly, but the chance of getting hit by lightning was what was really freaking me out. If you do get caught in a thunderstorm, how likely are you to get struck? Are you any safer sitting back at the marina? What do live-aboards do when a thunder storm rolls through? I suppose at the Marina at least there are lots of other masts for the lightning to hit instead of your own, but is that good enough?


This thread has some food for thought regarding lightning.

I attended an SSCA marine insurance workshop and the speaker said that catamarans have the most claims for lightning in the industry. Might want to sidle up to one in a storm. 

I think if you ask four people about how to protect a boat, you'll get three different answers.


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## WDS123 (Apr 2, 2011)

The general forecasts are not worth much to someone in Thunderstorm County trying to determine if they can go out for a daysail. 


The daysailor needs a precise forecast for a very small area. General forecasts are near worthless the daysailor

One needs to learn to use the raw data (radar maps, iso bars, lightning strikes) to develop a precise forecast for one's own small area. It takes a few years, but after a while, one can be very very accurate. 

It is also part of good seamanship to have some modicum of understanding of weather forecasting. A good book is 'The Sailors Wind" by Stuart Walker, it focuses on round the bouy racing, but has an enormous amount of information for the daysailor.


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## centaursailor (Nov 7, 2010)

Might mean you,r going to get wet.
Going out on a boat in Ireland this summer generally has the same effect
Safe sailing


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## Cruiser2B (Jan 6, 2011)

I usually watch the weather before setting sail. if there are no storms in the "viewing area" then i head out. I always keep my eyes on the sky and keep my storm gear handi. I would never go sailing if i stayed in with a chance of thunder shower here on the lower Chesapeake. I will say i have been very lucky so far. i imagine its only a matter of time before i get caught, hopefully my planning and practice will be enough!


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## Tanley (Aug 20, 2009)

RobGallagher said:


> As I understand it; A 30% chance of thunder showers means that there is a 30% chance that any one place in the forecast area will be hit by a thunderstorm. In other words, the thunder showers will most probably be out there, but, there is only 1/3 of a chance they will come over you.[/url]


Yep,

FAQ - What is the Meaning of

I've also heard it explained as under these specific meteorological conditions, the event (rain/snow/thunderstorms) will occur X% of the time those conditions exist.


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## bljones (Oct 13, 2008)

miketucker said:


> Bljones: I'm not sure what route you would recommend between Toronto and NotL, but the route I took was almost due South, straight across the lake. For the first half of the journey, the closest port is to turn around and go back to Toronto. For the second half of the journey, the closest port is to keep going to Niagara-on-the-Lake. So I didn't have any 'safe harbours' to duck into. I guess you could sail around the western edge of the lake, but that would at least double your distance and travel time, turning a 5 hour crossing into a 10 hour trip. Is that what you're recommending?
> 
> Mike


Mike,
What I mean is that you tailor your passage to your weather, keep your radio on and prepare to change course as necessary. For example, instead of crossing directly, if the weather report was more ominous than it was, you had the option of heading southwest toward Oakville, and ducking in if necessary. If, as you proceed, the weather report improves, then you can bear south towards NOTL. Yeah, it adds time to the trip, but less time than sitting in the harbour waiting for weather to improve or and more fun than a sphincter-tightening white knuckle ride through weather you could have avoided.
For the best weather info, learn how to decode the MAFOR codes, rather than using the Enviroment Canada summary, and cross-reference the american reports from the south side of the lake.

Text Forecasts - Environment Canada

Mafor Code Page


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## tdw (Oct 2, 2006)

Somewhat off topic, but on the subject of weather, I liked this piece from this morning's SMH ...

Yesterday's item about the peculiar subtitling of TV weather forecasts reminded Des O'Brien, of Manly, of ''a wonderful BBC weather forecast I heard years ago. The announcer predicted 'showers so frequent as to amount to almost continuous rain'.''

Column 8


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## jjablonowski (Aug 13, 2007)

*Addicted to Radar*

Weather patterns not so much different here on Long Island Sound, and I've become used to checking the animated radar maps on Web sites like AccuWeather or WeatherUnderground. They're highly accurate, and you can SEE a cluster of red-centered clouds comin' at ya, usually in time to duck (or stay in port).

So I recently bought a 3G USB modem for my laptop, and now take it aboard for overnight trips. Works great! And the pay-as-you-go plan (from Virgin Mobile) lets me buy megabytes in $10/10-day clusters, so I'm not paying for a connection in the non-sailing season.


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## OtterGreen (May 10, 2011)

here on the Barnegat bay storms come from a general west direction and when they do they spring up fast on the radio and radar. learn the weather patterns for your area and compare them to the published weather. i know when i see tall anvils on clouds and something is approaching from the west its time to head in or hunker down.


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## Bene505 (Jul 31, 2008)

I use intellicast.com to see the storms coming and whether they will pass to the north or south of us.

Intellicast - Current Radar in United States

Watch the maps that show the storms in motion, then predict their track based on their current movement. Usueally they are moving pretty straight, sometimes they curve as they go, so you can extrapolate the curve. Also look for the center of curving storms (the Low) and how that low is moving.

My wife and others call me to know the exact time rain will start. I measure on the screen the distance covered by the 2-hour-motion-loop and then give them a best guess, precise (not necessarily accurate) to 15-30 minutes.

You can also see thunderstorms popping up over the course of the 2 hour loop. Those are the ones that are hard to predict.

By the way, I've recently found intellicast to be perhaps a bit inaccurate compared to ground observations and so started using other radar sources.

Regards,
Brad


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## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

I believe Intellicast takes sq mile blocks of data and mathematically smooths the edges to make it look pretty on the map. Still pretty good.


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## Bene505 (Jul 31, 2008)

I just compared intellicast to another site, and intellicast didn't show a storm that went right by the boat. That's all. Maybe there was a bug in the system that day.

Regards,
Brad


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## Cruiser2B (Jan 6, 2011)

*It happened!*



Cruiser2B said:


> I usually watch the weather before setting sail. if there are no storms in the "viewing area" then i head out. I always keep my eyes on the sky and keep my storm gear handi. I would never go sailing if i stayed in with a chance of thunder shower here on the lower Chesapeake. I will say i have been very lucky so far. i imagine its only a matter of time before i get caught, hopefully my planning and practice will be enough!


Well it happened yesterday, took a nice day sail out to Cape Henry light house from Little Creek. Wind was great 10-15knots clear blue sky, forcast slight chance of t-storms in the evening. We headed out at about 1pm and reached the Cape Henry Light house by 2:45pm. As we were approaching the light house i looked behind and saw the ominous sky. I immediately double reefed the main, we only have the 100% jib on. as the storm approached i was real nervous because of all the anchored tankers and commerical traffic in the area. we kept sailing toward the light as our cell phone radar indicated the storm would stay in the bay and it did. We maybe saw gust to 25 and all seemed well. Wind died down to about 10kts so we put the main completely up and changed the head sail to our 140% we were making great time back as we passed back through the tunnel at about 4:30-45 the wind started kicking up again. much stronger this time 15-20knot with gust to 25kts as we were about 2miles from Little creek, wow all of a sudden all hell broke loose. I say all of sudden because there was no dark clouds, no rain, slightly overcast....we immediately dropped all sails and started the motor. within 3-4 mins winds were blowing a sustained 35kt with gust to 40+(verified later by bouy data). Wife and I donned our life jackets as we were taking spray and wave over the bow. we were making almost no head way directly into the wind and waves so i decided to go at a 45 to them we started to make head way but we were getting broadsided by the chop and getting wet!!!!!! we kept motoring for the next 20-30 minutes into this mess and just like that, wind was 10knts. when we made it to the entrance to the channel it was almost calm.

We docked and everyone was safe. Although there were a few other boats that did not fair so well. A few boats at our marina(out sailing) lost sails, one went aground that was anchored by our marina. One of the crew of the boat that lost his sails said they saw 50kt wind with gust to 60 according to their instruments....

All in all, an experience we needed. Our boat never felt unsafe but Jacklines and tether have now become priority #1, when we reef lifejackets go on when a storm is near or approaching! ......although Hurricane Irene just bumped into #1 today.


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## sailortjk1 (Dec 20, 2005)

We sailed from Holland Michigan to Chicago last Saturday. The forecast was for a "Chance of Thunderstorms" on Saturday.
This is what a chance of thunderstorms means on the great lakes.

YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.

Smacky, I hope you get to see this. Like I have always said, you go out enough and the crap will find you. I was going to put this in bfs but figured it was better suited for here, not really a bfs because we are bare poles and thank god we were.


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## Cruiser2B (Jan 6, 2011)

link does not seem to work, it may be me though


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## flyingwelshman (Aug 5, 2007)

bljones said:


> For the best weather info, learn how to decode the MAFOR codes, rather than using the Enviroment Canada summary, and cross-reference the american reports from the south side of the lake.


Attached are copies of the MAFOR sheets I use. I have them as Word documents and print the second page inverted on the back of the first so that the codes are easy to decipher.

I added the time conversions as my wife has challenges with the time differences and the 24-hour clock.

I find the MAFOR (for Georgian Bay) to be pretty reliable - the timing is often off, but I can usually account for that.


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## Capt Psycho (Aug 5, 2011)

Here in Florida...It's just about our daily summer forecast, either isolated or scattered showers. If I listened to the weather man…I would end up staying home!!!


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## JordanH (Dec 13, 2008)

I just spent 6 weeks cruising the Canadian side of the Great Lakes. Lake Huron, North Georgian Bay/East North Channel, then back through Lake Huron, Lake Erie and across Lake Ontario.

What I've learned about forecasts... Don't believe them. Learn about reading the weather and you have a better chance of being safe than by listening to the weather pundits.

Specifically for the Great Lakes, the most accurate forecasts we found were through MAFOR codes. These were fairly accurate for Lake Huron & North Channel. These were completely, and drastically incorrect for Lake Erie. For example, Predicted [email protected] of wind, updated to squalls with [email protected] knots. In reality, we hit solid [email protected] knots ALL DAY LONG. A few days later, they predicted [email protected] (usually meaning 'calm') but in reality we started the morning with [email protected], dropped to [email protected] then back to [email protected] knots. Finally, we sailed Port Stanley to Port Colborne... predicted [email protected], reality was [email protected]+knots moving to NW25 knots.

Tidbit #2; Forecasts that predict "Chance of Thunder showers" are predictions made by shore stations and DO NOT reflect sailing conditions. Many of our Ontario thunderstorms are caused by land heating up suddenly, creating warm rising air and when combined with unstable air form rainstorms *over land*. Sometimes these carry out to the lake, sometimes not. For example, we just left Port Weller for a 5 hour motor to Port Credit (no, there are no harbours to duck into, that doesn't make sense in our portion of the lake). Weather predicted gloom, but we had nothing but sun over the lake. Massive rain clouds over Hamilton (We watched them pass behind us) and as we approached Port Credit, there was a solid line of cumulous clouds over Mississauga and haze over Toronto... still, no clouds until we reached shore.

Ok... so, after all that, the key point here is that land stations don't predict marine weather. You can get daily marine forecasts on VHF and even better the MAFOR codes that are updated at 06:30, 10:30 and 18:30 on VHF (urgent updates added as necessary). Further, you can get them in text format on the Internet - FANTASTIC resource for your SmartPhone.
Text Forecasts - Environment Canada

And... if you want to know more, read. Try "Reeds Maritime Meteorology". You can pick it up at the Nautical Mind on QueensQuay. (I'm not an affiliate, just a frequent customer.) You will learn how to use the appropriate pressure maps. Found here: Numerical Model Charts - Environment Canada

By the way, being hit by lightning can open a large hole in the bottom of your boat... Try to avoid lightning storms by keeping a watch on weather - both through advanced knowledge and with your eyes.

Mike, I am moving my boat to Outer Harbour Marina tomorrow for the remainder of the season.. if you see me, say hi and we'll chat!
Correction: I am no longer moving my boat to Outer Harbour Marina. Plans changed and now I'll likely be in Port Credit until the end of the season. I wish they'd get ther $#!T together. Why does it take 4-6 weeks to process an application when OHM and Bluffers can do it immediately, onsite??


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## sailortjk1 (Dec 20, 2005)

Cruiser2B said:


> link does not seem to work, it may be me though


I'll try again...

Storm on Board Julianna - YouTube


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## bubb2 (Nov 9, 2002)

sailortjk1 said:


> We sailed from Holland Michigan to Chicago last Saturday. The forecast was for a "Chance of Thunderstorms" on Saturday.
> This is what a chance of thunderstorms means on the great lakes.


after sailing with you 3 times and twice we encountered storms, I have come to the conclusion that sailing with you means chances are better than not that we going to get wet. You are a storm magnet.


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## JordanH (Dec 13, 2008)

sailortjk1 said:


> I'll try again...
> 
> Storm on Board Julianna - YouTube


I'm surprised to see how calm it was. We just went through Lake Erie after a few days of thunderstorms and tornadoes in the area and the swells/waves were easily 10-14', which is miserable, but even worse was they were reflecting from shore. On our first day into Lake Erie, they forecasted < 10 knots, but we quickly hit 20+ when the 40knot squall watch was broadcast on the radio. We ran at 30+ knots apparent for hours... never did see the 40 knot squall though. The waves were rather large there too - perhaps 6-8' - all the way into Pelee Island.

Those storms do come up fast down here.

Lake Ontario seems to be quite a bit calmer than Lake Erie, but the storms do pass through quickly as well.


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## sailortjk1 (Dec 20, 2005)

It was dead calm for several hours before this hit us. This was the front edge of a new low pressure system moving onto the area. As the day worn on the waves built.
It's not exactly calm if you ask me. We were bare poles and getting healed over pretty good.


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## JordanH (Dec 13, 2008)

right, not calm. The wind and rain were really driving in that video. I meant the sea state was calm-ish; Not 14' swells.

Yes, those storms normally get you out of the blue on the lakes. And then BAM!


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