# Predictions on the 2020/2021 season in FL/Caribbean ... ?



## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

So ... for various reasons I got my boat out of the water and on the hard in Indiantown. So, it's reasonably safe from any hurricanes. And I got myself a place to stay in Pennsylvania and a job for the summer to replenish the kitty.

The thing I'm considering now, is should I even try to return to the water this fall? With the lockdowns and everything else, does it make sense to continue working until fall of 2021 and return to the ocean then? I mean, what are the chances that it will even be possible to cross over to the Bahamas this fall? Let alone anywhere else?

I know that it's impossible to be sure what the future will be, but I thought it would be an interesting discussion to see what others think.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

We are simply waiting to see. What else can one do? Make plans either way, and be ready for anything. 

If the extra money is needed, then the safer bet is to just work for the next year. That might make the following year much easier and more fun.

Mark


----------



## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

The bahamas reopens july 1st
Have a friend help look over your boat...be confident, losing that worry
Pick a good window and make the short jump
Once youre there it will be easy day hopping
Steps...get confidence..it all flows from there

Im on my way back to fl now...slowly


----------



## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

BillMoran said:


> So ... for various reasons I got my boat out of the water and on the hard in Indiantown. So, it's reasonably safe from any hurricanes. And I got myself a place to stay in Pennsylvania and a job for the summer to replenish the kitty.
> 
> The thing I'm considering now, is should I even try to return to the water this fall? With the lockdowns and everything else, does it make sense to continue working until fall of 2021 and return to the ocean then? I mean, what are the chances that it will even be possible to cross over to the Bahamas this fall? Let alone anywhere else?
> 
> I know that it's impossible to be sure what the future will be, but I thought it would be an interesting discussion to see what others think.


IMO Winter in the Bahamas is not all that great. Lot's of wind from the cold fronts heading down from the North. Now Springtime is another story. Make the green over the winter then hop on over to the Bahamas in the Spring is my advice. Better weather and better times.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

mbianka said:


> IMO Winter in the Bahamas is not all that great.


But it sure beats winter in NY! 

Mark


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

That’s the $64,000 question, Bill. The best answer is no one knows.

I predict there will be a Fall outbreak. I’m hopeful the brains have figured out a better way to manage it than shutdown/lockdown, next time. I believe, once the economic and human cost of the shutdowns is fully realized, they think harder next time. Protecting nursing homes, the elderly and vulnerable, mandatory distancing and masks, etc. Pretending that people aren’t starving (no school lunches), suffering domestic abuse, or deferring life extending medical care (as opposed to emergency life saving) can’t go on perpetually. I think there should be very strict rules, short of a shutdown.

That said, I’m not sure the island nations have the kind of sophistication to deal with it. They may be the first to lock down again.

I am not booking a bareboat next winter. Principally, because I can’t assess the ability of the operator to remain in business, with thousands of dollars of deposit money. Wondering what may be open is another.

If I owned a boat down there, I would at least make plans to splash her for a couple of months and play it by ear, even if I didn’t leave FL. Boats don’t like to sit.


----------



## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Minnewaska said:


> ...That said, I'm not sure the island nations have the kind of sophistication to deal with it. They may be the first to lock down again...


I take issue with your characterization of island nations as unsophisticated. The US needs to take a look in the mirror.

It doesn't take much sophistication to wear a mask all the time when away from home and avoid congregating in large crowds. One island nation, Japan, is VERY GOOD at this, as are many other islands. The "red state" unwillingness to require masks and distancing, and to encourage defiance of this common sense approach as some political statement of "asserting our rights", will go down in history as one of the great failures of our country. America's battered reputation in the world as a bunch of careless dupes who don't follow guidelines may be the single biggest impediment to our being allowed into other nations. It's the US that lacks sophistication.


----------



## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

colemj said:


> But it sure beats winter in NY!
> 
> Mark


Actually last winter was not that bad in NY. But, that did not stop me from implementing my newest retirement plan. Which was to try and get someplace warm every month for the winter. Worked great for December and February when I jumped on cruise ships out of New York. In January it was three weeks in Bonaire. But, things went south (no pun intended) in April when my annual trip to check out the time share in Key West had to be scrapped due to the lockdown. Likewise our annual May sailing charter in the Bahamas was also scrapped. I'm hoping to re-implement the plan when December rolls around this year. Our deposit for the May Bahamas charter has already been applied to next years trip. Meantime I'm pretty much full time on the boat enjoying the northeast sailing season.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

I agree with your point TakeFive, but I didn't read it that way. I interpreted it as many of these smaller nations do not have the healthcare facilities or support apparatuses to handle outbreaks while keeping their countries open to visitors. Hence, they may be the first to lock down again because they have fewer options and tools available.

To your point, pretty much every island nation did better than the US on this initial round. They continue to do better and smarter still. Our politicization of this health issue is literally killing us.

Mark


----------



## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

colemj said:


> I agree with your point TakeFive, but I didn't read it that way. I interpreted it as many of these smaller nations do not have the healthcare facilities or support apparatuses to handle outbreaks while keeping their countries open to visitors. Hence, they may be the first to lock down again because they have fewer options and tools available.
> 
> To your point, pretty much every island nation did better than the US on this initial round. They continue to do better and smarter still. Our politicalization of this health issue is literally killing us.
> 
> Mark


Good points. The appropriate word would have been "capacity", not "sophistication".


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

mbianka said:


> Actually last winter was not that bad in NY.


Hehe - a justification necessary around late February by everyone living in winter climes! 

I know what you mean. When I lived in the North, by mid to late winter I was depressed and despondent winter would never end. Yes, I played hockey, skied, snowmobiled, etc, but by late Feb/early March I just couldn't take it anymore.

So I started chartering for 2 weeks during this time. It's amazing how that can reset you and stiffen one up to face the remaining bit of winter back home.

Now we get all despondent if we are caught in an area where there is a week or two of low 60's with colder nights during the deep winter. I could never live in Northern climes again.

Mark


----------



## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

TakeFive said:


> It doesn't take much sophistication to wear a mask all the time when away from home and avoid congregating in large crowds. One island nation, Japan, is VERY GOOD at this, as are many other islands. The "red state" unwillingness to require masks and distancing, and to encourage defiance of this common sense approach as some political statement of "asserting our rights", will go down in history as one of the great failures of our country. America's battered reputation in the world as a bunch of careless dupes who don't follow guidelines may be the single biggest impediment to our being allowed into other nations. It's the US that lacks sophistication.


And yet this is what The New England Journal of Medicine posted in May:

_"We know that wearing *a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection*. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). *The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.* In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."_

Personally I'll wear a mask if I ever enter a store which is rare these days. My barber required for both of us to wear one which is fine. But, it scares me when I see someone driving with the mask on. I'd like to know they are breathing clean air not a mixture of bodily exhausts when operating a vehicle.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Yes, Wearing Masks Helps. Here's Why


Politicians argue. Those opposed to mask mandates protest. But meanwhile, growing evidence shows that mask wearing is a critical tool in curbing the spread of the coronavirus.




www.npr.org





Mark


----------



## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

mbianka said:


> And yet this is what The New England Journal of Medicine posted in May:
> 
> _"We know that wearing *a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection*. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). *The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal.* In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."_
> 
> Personally I'll wear a mask if I ever enter a store which is rare these days. My barber required for both of us to wear one which is fine. But, it scares me when I see someone driving with the mask on. I'd like to know they are breathing clean air not a mixture of bodily exhausts when operating a vehicle.


You are part of the problem. 

First, you quoted an opinion piece, posted on April 1. Beyond the hugely ironic date of publication, our knowledge has advanced since then. Presymptomatic transmission is now known to be common, in fact there is evidence that the most contagious period is a few days prior to showing the first symptoms. So we now know that he is factually wrong in that statement.

He is also too vague about his statement about a mask's "protection from infection." Depending on its design, the mask may provide minimal protection to the wearer, but it is well known to significantly reduce the distance of expelled aerosol droplets away from the wearer. So its main benefit is "herd protection", though such altruism gets little value in the selfish USA. However, it's clear that countries and islands that are taking such precautions are far outperforming the US.

Brief passing in a public outdoor space does pose minimal risk, but unless you are clairvoyant you don't know whether you will be put into a situation where interaction is at higher density or for longer time. That's why I keep a mask around my neck when walking on the sidewalk on a hot, sweaty day, and put it over my nose/mouth when needed. The mask will become ineffective if my the mask's pores become clogged with sweat. But I do put it on whenever someone is approaching on the sidewalk.

If you see someone driving in a car with a mask, it's really none of your business why. Maybe they work in a high risk environment and are wearing it to protect their kids in the back seat. Maybe they just got into the car and are so used to wearing it that they forgot to remove it (as has happened to me a couple times). I recently had someone point at me laughing when I had a mask on while mowing my lawn. I've worn masks for YEARS while mowing in dry weather to reduce pollen inhalation. Observers have no effing idea, and it's none of their business.

Finally, have a look at this picture. I was working on my boat in the slip when I looked up because I smelled cigarette smoke. The two women were 150' away smoking, and I smelled their "tracer particles." We can argue all day about how highly sensitive the nose is to aromatic compounds, and how much of a dose of odorless virus particles you would actually need to lead to an infection, and how a mask wouldn't stop those particles anyway. But every time you're outside and smell a smoker's "tracer particles", a little light bulb should go off in your head wondering what you might be breathing in that you cannot smell. If everyone wears a mask, the aerosols that people expel from their mouths and noses are proven to travel much shorter distances.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

colemj said:


> I agree with your point TakeFive, but I didn't read it that way. I interpreted it as many of these smaller nations do not have the healthcare facilities or support apparatuses to handle outbreaks while keeping their countries open to visitors. Hence, they may be the first to lock down again because they have fewer options and tools available.
> 
> To your point, pretty much every island nation did better than the US on this initial round. They continue to do better and smarter still. Our politicization of this health issue is literally killing us.
> 
> Mark


Actually, if you look at the stats; Coronavirus Update (Live): 8,970,475 Cases and 467,699 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer, you'll see that many of the Caribbean island nations did a fantastic job of not only controlling the virus, but keeping people alive. 
As for the "red" states acting like idiots re precautions against spreading the virus, I think most will see the result in infections and deaths so they will reap what they have sewn. However, since their "leader" has shown little regard for leading by example re social distancing and wearing a mask, I guess you can't blame them too much.
There is talk here of reopening the airport soon and I'm sure there will be countries that won't be welcome until they get the virus at least somewhat under control. I hope that will include mandatory isolation in specific hotels as SVG has done, but we'll see.
To the OP: Since most expect a 'second wave' in the fall, I expect the Caribbean islands will again go into a lockdown, so any expectations of the 2020 winter cruising season being on are pretty slight, IMO. Unless you'll need the boat as a residence, I'd leave her safe and sound on land until such time as you can see a future that makes the idea of cruising a reality again.


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

TakeFive said:


> I take issue with your characterization of island nations as unsophisticated. The US needs to take a look in the mirror.


Obviously, you lack the self awareness to recognize your explicit politicization of the matter, while you criticize those that politicize the matter. I never mentioned the US as the role model. We totally screwed this up at every level, Fed, State and Hospital. They'll do it better and smarter the next tIme, because they'll have to.

Have you ever had any interaction with a Caribbean island government? Seriously lack sophistication, generally. Poor information, poor communication. Flagrant corruption, not just cute political accusations. My wife and I have both turned down work, because we wouldn't play the game. No doubt there are exceptions.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Minnewaska said:


> Have you ever had any interaction with a Caribbean island government? Seriously lack sophistication, generally. Poor information, poor communication. *Flagrant corruption*, not just cute political accusations.


I'm really surprised to see this posted. I've been in the* eastern *Caribbean off and on since 1978 and have encountered very little corruption. Perhaps it's rampant within the island governments, as it is presently in the US, but every where I've been, entry, exit and overtime fees have been posted and adhered to meticulously, to the point I've been given a receipt for every nickle I've ever given a government official.
Even when importing things, though the process may be tedious and bothersome, any money paid has always come with a receipt and an explanation. However, more often than not, customs officials have given us a pass without payment, rather than going to the trouble of itemizing each item and making us pay duty on each, since it is all obviously not going to be landed and consumed in their country.
Now, if you'd like to discuss open corruption that personally affects we sailors, let me suggest Indonesia, Morocco, Turkey, Greece, and Egypt as places you'd want to avoid if corruption is something you wish not to deal with.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Minnewaska said:


> Have you ever had any interaction with a Caribbean island government? Seriously lack sophistication, generally. Poor information, poor communication. Flagrant corruption, not just cute political accusations. My wife and I have both turned down work, because we wouldn't play the game. No doubt there are exceptions.


Having spent the past 9yrs living in Caribbean nations and with their governments, I can state that almost all of them are exceptions to your description. Very few are as you describe. Even very few local officials are as you describe.

No doubt there are exceptions.

Mark


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Minnewaska said:


> Now, if you'd like to discuss open corruption that personally affects we sailors, let me suggest Indonesia, Morocco, Turkey, Greece, and Egypt as places you'd want to avoid if corruption is something you wish not to deal with.


I don't have much experience there, but I did spend 3 weeks in Turkey sailing with cruising friends there, and didn't experience any corruption at all. My friends are there full-time and described the yards, marinas, and workers as honest and good, and have had no problem with government officials at all.

Mark


----------



## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

The anchor alarm went off
Serious drift


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

colemj said:


> I don't have much experience there, but I did spend 3 weeks in Turkey sailing with cruising friends there, and didn't experience any corruption at all. My friends are there full-time and described the yards, marinas, and workers as honest and good, and have had no problem with government officials at all.
> 
> Mark


Mark, that was my post you attributed to Minnewaska.
I must admit my experiences in Turkey were some years back, but I can't imagine that some of the small south eastern towns aren't still a bit on the baksheesh system.


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

capta said:


> I'm really surprised to see this posted. I've been in the* eastern *Caribbean off and on since 1978 and have encountered very little corruption.


Even tho I have had my occasions with being shaken down, as a tourist (mostly in the Bahamas), I was not referring to tourist interactions with Caribbean Island government officials. Even when I've been given receipts, I knew they were for fees that didn't exist or were incorrect. I'm not even convinced my entry fees to the BVI last winter were accurate. There was no breakdown or calculation. Rather a number circled on the bottom of a page that was double my previous entry.

I'm referring to deeper inside their legislatures, law enforcement and judiciary. It's not hard to find hundreds of articles: cash payments to high ranking officials to avoid import tariffs, judges dismissing cases. Just a few years ago, the Dutch Caribbean Coast Guard was caught trafficking drugs. In fact, they've been making progress in recent years, as it's had global attention, but it's still rampant.

My point was not to gratuitously kick the islands, rather point out that few have the governance horsepower to manage an issue like a pandemic, without just shutting down.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

capta said:


> Mark, that was my post you attributed to Minnewaska.
> I must admit my experiences in Turkey were some years back, but I can't imagine that some of the small south eastern towns aren't still a bit on the baksheesh system.


I see that now. Don't know how it happened, and wasn't my intention. All I did was hit "reply" under your post, trimmed out the bit I wasn't replying to, then hit "post reply". How the quote got misattributed I can't explain.

I don't even know how that could intentionally be done. Maybe a software bug?

Mark


----------



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Cloth mask or dust mask wearing is about you not transmiting the illness not about you’re being protected. Protection is increased by a combination of face shield, N95 worn correctly, gloves, gown and studiously following ID protocols.
RNA virions are rendered inactive by being denatured. Alcohol acts as it evaporates in the main but also as a lipid solvent. UV acts directly on RNA/protein as does acids (chlorox).
Pragmatically if you wish to decrease your risk you would decrease risk of exposure. Leave boat/home as rarely as possible. If you do so be in open environment. Ideally with some wind to decrease density of aerosols. In sunlight and appropriately distanced from others. The magical 6 feet is wrong. Distancing needs to take into account environment. Density of aerosol, droplet exposure, stagnant air movemen, level of personal protection etc. Obviously if your suited up and your suit maintains positive pressure with external sterile air you can be inches from virions and at no risk. In a contained stagnant room filled with a density of contaminated aerosol no distance suffices.
The OP speaks directly to my daily concern. My boat is in the hurricane zone. I’m in Massachusetts. I’m paying zone insurance. I’m paying more for guardianship. I’m not sailing. I’m not a happy camper. St. Lucia is opening very slowly. Due to incidence and prevalence Americans are more likely to be vectors of disease than others. A negative test is required within 48 hours of arrival. Testing for asymptomatic individuals remains difficult and a cost here. Our airline is not yet flying to St.Lucia. We rarely pay for flights as we use our credit card points. The US is not in a second wave. Look at the graphs. We are in a continuation of the first wave as the infection penetrates new regions. Herd immunity will not be reached anytime soon. Even with fast tracking 60-70% of the population being vaccinated will not occur anytime soon. Covid will be present in the US come fall by all predictions.
Our hopes are:
Flights will be available late Octobe/early November.
We will test negative immediately before the flight.
Boat will be splashed before our arrival.
Situation will allow us to island jump downwind with the trades heading eventual for the states. Boat will then be kept in home waters until covid risks subside.
In the interim we are limiting risk of exposure. Spending time outside as much as possible away from others. Doing as few trips to stores as possible. No inside restaurants or other non critical activities. Wearing masks due to our concern for others. Following ID(infectious disease) protocols. Will continue to do this regardless of governmental mandates until risk is minimal.

Read a interesting discussion about why the US is an outlier on persistence of first wave. Basically it’s cultural. American culture stresses individualism and self reliance. In the past this has allowed us to be quite successful. Although we are capable of altruistic behavior frequenfly we are resistant to mandates that speak to an invisible common good. It goes beyond a simple red/blue divide although that’s used as a rough measure. This holds comparing us to Asians, Europeans and others. It’s just not in our culture to do what’s necessary in this setting. The current anti intellectualism, anti-science, low opinion of mass media and government doesn’t help either. Nor does the proliferation of lies in the “eithernet “, social media nonsense.


----------



## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

RegisteredUser said:


> The anchor alarm went off
> Serious drift


It lost it's gps fix and is lost.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Don L said:


> It lost it's gps fix and is lost.


Are you two looking to become moderators or thread police?


----------



## Don L (Aug 8, 2008)

Nope, just trying to read things that are about a topic thread title that i clicked on to read about instead of something else that it drifted off to


----------



## BillMoran (Oct 1, 2016)

Bleah ...

I was really hoping for a discussion about how difficult it is to move around the Caribbean right now and what trends people were seeing in the rules going forward. Disappointed that it degenerated into political bickering.

Oh well. I guess I'll try again in a few months with a more carefully considered title and question body and hope for more useful discussion.


----------



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

I’ve been following this closely. Answer very difficult at present for a US documented boat with US crew. As stated above we continue to hope to island hop from windwards to southern Gulf Stream. Then ride that to New England. At present really only feasible being fully provisioned, depend on watermaker and no landfalls but for sleep breaks under a Q flag. Quarantine and testing requirements make anything else not feasible.
Unless things change our fallback remains straight shot to Newport.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

BillMoran said:


> Bleah ...
> 
> I was really hoping for a discussion about how difficult it is to move around the Caribbean right now and what trends people were seeing in the rules going forward. Disappointed that it degenerated into political bickering.
> 
> Oh well. I guess I'll try again in a few months with a more carefully considered title and question body and hope for more useful discussion.


Well I sure didn't get that from the OP, but I'd be glad to offer my impressions.
Right now, to the best of our knowledge, the French islands are only letting in EU residents and I don't know about quarantines. 
Trinidad is still closed to all traffic. When it opens there will be a strict quarantine.
Many EC countries are open but with 15 day quarantines which makes moving about for short visits problematic. Last I heard, SVG required sailors to abandon their vessels for quarantine and reside in a hotel ashore at their expense. Antigua is open but I don't know their quarantine requirements.
Grenada is open to those who wish to wish to come, but they must make prior arrangements and if storing their vessel in Carriacou, they must exit the island soon after haul out. A 15 day quarantine period is required on both islands.
In all cases it is highly recommended that arriving vessels have all the provisions and water necessary for a 15 day quarantine, though some arrangements have been made to supply quarantined vessels should the need arise.
To the best of our knowledge, and my wife monitors this pretty carefully, no country down here has published any information about any definitive plans after July. It seems, as we all are, that the governments are taking a wait and see policy.
All in all I wouldn't expect the winter 2020/2021 to be very conducive to vacationing down here as it is generally expected that there will be a second wave of infections in the fall. We certainly aren't looking forward to any charter guests this coming season.


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

capta said:


> ....
> Right now, to the best of our knowledge, the French islands are only letting in EU residents and I don't know about quarantines.


That's interesting. Residents or citizens? I would guess it's the passport that matters, not the permanent home, as many cruisers don't have one. I qualify for EU citizenship, which I've never bothered to apply for. My wife has dual US/UK citizenship. I've often wondered if having the other passport would make situations like this more flexible.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Minnewaska said:


> That's interesting. Residents or citizens? I would guess it's the passport that matters, not the permanent home, as many cruisers don't have one. I qualify for EU citizenship, which I've never bothered to apply for. My wife has dual US/UK citizenship. I've often wondered if having the other passport would make situations like this more flexible.


I believe even in the US being a legal resident is sufficient for entry even in these days of limited entry? Perhaps I misspoke, but I don't think it important for this post. Anyone heading anywhere these days needs to check the regs as they seem to change on a daily/weekly basis in some places.
Personally, if I had the opportunity for multiple passports I wouldn't hesitate for an instant. Going to Cuba is a great example of the advantages of what multiple passports affords one.


----------



## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

capta said:


> ...... Going to Cuba is a great example of the advantages of what multiple passports affords one.


What passports/citizenship does cuba deny entry


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

RegisteredUser said:


> What passports/citizenship does cuba deny entry


duh
Beginning on Wednesday, *the United States* will not permit group educational and cultural trips known as "people to people" trips to the island unless they were booked before June 5, the Treasury Department said in a statement. Nor will it allow cruises, private yachts or fishing vessels to stop in *Cuba*.Jun 4, 2019


----------



## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

capta said:


> Going to Cuba is a great example of the advantages of what multiple passports affords one.


I am not 100% sure about this but I believe that US citizens are generally not allowed to visit Cuba (with some exceptions) independently of whether they use their US passport or another one, in case they are also citizens of another country. At least this is what it was before Obama opened it up, and then Trump closed it again.

How they (US immigration) would know is a different question but that was the law IIRC. At the least you would have to lie at the border when they ask you which countries you have visited, and that is never a good thing.


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

Not even in Obama's days was travel to Cuba without significant limitation. It's an economic ban, technically. No US citizen is permitted to spend money there, other than for specific purposes. Some exceptions still exist, but they've rolled back the pay to play schemes. Under Obama, if you could afford the "cultural visit" group fees, you could go. 

It's a crazy showdown between the two countries, that has some very dangerous history. Nevertheless, I would not go, just because I had another passport. If I really felt the need, it's simply enough to go via Canada or Mexico, with one's US passport. The Cuban's don't care and they don't stamp your passport.


----------



## MastUndSchotbruch (Nov 26, 2010)

Minnewaska said:


> It's a crazy showdown between the two countries, that has some very dangerous history. Nevertheless, I would not go, just because I had another passport. If I really felt the need, it's simply enough to go via Canada or Mexico, with one's US passport. The Cuban's don't care and they don't stamp your passport.


That is correct, and those US citizen who did go to Cuba must have done exactly that. Which means they must have lied at the border if they were asked which country they have visited (I get asked this all the time).


----------



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

SDR did have a cruise to Cuba. We were quite interested in sailing and snorkeling their southern coast. Due to the relative absence of land development it’s still a beautiful place to dive. However for a US citizen the restrictions were onerous and we didn’t go. From those who went probably a good decision. Remains hard for US citizens to just cruise around and explore.

One of the main concerns for cruisers is not only government mandates but also flight availability. Friends remain stuck in Grenada. They can’t fly out. Also for US citizens due to our still being in the first wave with cases increasing are being viewed differently. As is already occurring elsewhere believe both windwards and leewards will either restrict our access or treat us differently in the future. I’m going to have my yacht manager run my various Diesel engines periodically as I’m not optimistic I’ll be able to return to my boat come November.


----------



## mickeyrouse (Oct 10, 2000)

BillMoran said:


> So ... for various reasons I got my boat out of the water and on the hard in Indiantown. So, it's reasonably safe from any hurricanes. And I got myself a place to stay in Pennsylvania and a job for the summer to replenish the kitty.
> 
> The thing I'm considering now, is should I even try to return to the water this fall? With the lockdowns and everything else, does it make sense to continue working until fall of 2021 and return to the ocean then? I mean, what are the chances that it will even be possible to cross over to the Bahamas this fall? Let alone anywhere else?
> 
> I know that it's impossible to be sure what the future will be, but I thought it would be an interesting discussion to see what others think.


It's pretty obvious that cruising decisions are a subset of the greater coronavirus landscape. Americans, due to the record ("we're NUMBER ONE!") death rate and increasing infection rates are beginning to experience restricted entry- no Texans in New York, for example. 
Yacht cruisers are ever so much more so. It's not much of a stretch to say that you can expect no entry anywhere arriving on a yacht (like the cruise ships) until you can show vaccination by an accepted vaccine- which doesn't exist yet. 
In the meantime, get your boat ready, replenish the cruising kitty, stay alert to developments, be safe, don't get impatient.
A worst-case scenario is being in international waters when you develop fever and a non-stop dry hacking cough. Who do you think will let you in?


----------



## Minnewaska (Feb 21, 2010)

mickeyrouse said:


> .....beginning to experience restricted entry- no Texans in New York, for example.


The silver lining now is that governments are starting to understand better ways to manage this. NYs order explicitly defines the characteristics of other state's that drive quarantine, as opposed to target shooting states subjectively. X% growth in cases, for example. Early bans were broad and stupid. RI, for example, demanded quarantine of the entire planet. It was simple minded and evidence of no plan. NYs newest is still far from ideal, but I'm hopeful is an indication that managment of the pandemic gets smarter. I'm not terribly hopeful that Caribbean nations follow along and are more likely to resort to the simple shutdown everything approach.



> A worst-case scenario is being in international waters when you develop fever and a non-stop dry hacking cough. Who do you think will let you in?


This is a very good point. I'm not sure I'd personally even want to be a week offshore, if I wasn't certain I departed without the contagion. Tough times.


----------



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Pragmatically if you had a decent test with a low false negative rate (not the ~20% for some of current ones) and were negative and same with all crew and it was done as close as possible before leaving risks during the voyage would be negligible. Ideally would test everyone on the boat for both viral RNA and presence of antibodies. That way know risks to people when they get to the new environment as well as knowing occupants weren’t vectors.

Spent today with a fellow outbound owner and SDR member. SDR usually does a Maine cruise. Folks from Chessie commonly come up. OCC does something similar. However Maine is still requesting full quarantine for new arrivals or a documented negative test. For many this is an out of pocket expense if the test comes back negative. crazy times. Got a president who doesn’t understand if percentage of positive tests increases virus is winning regardless of number of tests done (yes you can think of ridiculously unlikely scenarios where that wouldn’t be true). Got insurance companies and states unwilling to pay for negative tests. Got citizens who still think the whole thing is not a big deal. That being the case think Europeans and Canadians will be cruising the Caribbean but US citizens won’t be.


----------



## Melrna (Apr 6, 2004)

Stranded in paradise... We have been cruising the Caribbean now for 3 years. We are currently stuck in Grenada. During the pandemic, we have seen how the islands have reacted to it and come to understand how the governments enact regulations to keeping their citizens safe. I for one believe the ex-British islands did a fantastic job in keeping Covid in check and are now Covid free. The French islands and Trinidad are still wrestling with cases of Covid. One can get into politics and medical this and that but in the end of things, the ex-British isles followed the WHO protocols to the nth degree and it worked; Lock-down, curfew, quarantine , masks, social distance and most important contact tracing with quarantine. 3 months into it, things are open within reason and no fear of Covid. 
We and about 500 or more cruisers here in Grenada are trying to figure out how to get home since the Prime Minister said last Saturday that the airport will be close for the unforeseeable future. The long and short of it, they don't want to live with Covid in their society. The politicians care about the people and their well being. Tourist, cruisers and business will not be welcomed as long as countries where passengers come from have Covid. Since foreign governments (mainly USA) and airlines refuse to comply with protocols that Caricom ( Caribbean islands UN) set-up, flight in and out will be limited to charter and repatriation flights for the time being. 
If and when we head back home, I give the 2020-21 cruising season about 15% chance of happening. With the continuation of the first wave in US and the supposedly coming of the second wave this fall/winter, I do not see them opening up the borders for cruisers. The borders are NOT open now without restrictions, quarantine or not allowed to enter at all (majority of them), even with Covid contained. I cannot imagine governments would cater to the cruising community's wishes of free border crossings. They simply are not doing that now. We are very small part of the islands GNP. We would not be in Grenada if it wasn't for one person, the manager here in Port Louis Marina. The government did not want us here but she formed a Maritime Association and convinced the government to let us in with many restrictions. The rest of the Caribbean islands feel the same way about us. We are not worth the risk with Covid still active. When we haul out, I don't expect to see Moondance for 18 months. 
In the meantime, enjoying paradise; fresh garden fruits and vegetables fresh bread/croissants, homemade chocolates, beautiful sunsets and rum drinks with our friends. Cheers

Melissa
SV Moondance


----------



## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Good to hear from you. Miss you and can’t wait for you to continue to teach my bride. She misses you as well. Ironic an accomplished airline pilot has their life turned upside down by the lack of flights. Look forward to a FaceTime or WhatsApp


----------



## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Melrna said:


> Stranded in paradise... We have been cruising the Caribbean now for 3 years. We are currently stuck in Grenada. During the pandemic, we have seen how the islands have reacted to it and come to understand how the governments enact regulations to keeping their citizens safe. I for one believe the ex-British islands did a fantastic job in keeping Covid in check and are now Covid free. The French islands and Trinidad are still wrestling with cases of Covid. One can get into politics and medical this and that but in the end of things, the ex-British isles followed the WHO protocols to the nth degree and it worked; Lock-down, curfew, quarantine , masks, social distance and most important contact tracing with quarantine. 3 months into it, things are open within reason and no fear of Covid.
> We and about 500 or more cruisers here in Grenada are trying to figure out how to get home since the Prime Minister said last Saturday that the airport will be close for the unforeseeable future. The long and short of it, they don't want to live with Covid in their society. The politicians care about the people and their well being. Tourist, cruisers and business will not be welcomed as long as countries where passengers come from have Covid. Since foreign governments (mainly USA) and airlines refuse to comply with protocols that Caricom ( Caribbean islands UN) set-up, flight in and out will be limited to charter and repatriation flights for the time being.
> If and when we head back home, I give the 2020-21 cruising season about 15% chance of happening. With the continuation of the first wave in US and the supposedly coming of the second wave this fall/winter, I do not see them opening up the borders for cruisers. The borders are NOT open now without restrictions, quarantine or not allowed to enter at all (majority of them), even with Covid contained. I cannot imagine governments would cater to the cruising community's wishes of free border crossings. They simply are not doing that now. We are very small part of the islands GNP. We would not be in Grenada if it wasn't for one person, the manager here in Port Louis Marina. The government did not want us here but she formed a Maritime Association and convinced the government to let us in with many restrictions. The rest of the Caribbean islands feel the same way about us. We are not worth the risk with Covid still active. When we haul out, I don't expect to see Moondance for 18 months.
> In the meantime, enjoying paradise; fresh garden fruits and vegetables fresh bread/croissants, homemade chocolates, beautiful sunsets and rum drinks with our friends. Cheers
> ...


Paints a picture of a country who cares about its citizens and protecting them. Even though small with limited ports of entry they are willing to put correct restrictions in and not pander to the money. Stay safe


----------



## Tsteen1 (Aug 23, 2020)

TakeFive said:


> I take issue with your characterization of island nations as unsophisticated. The US needs to take a look in the mirror.
> 
> It doesn't take much sophistication to wear a mask all the time when away from home and avoid congregating in large crowds. One island nation, Japan, is VERY GOOD at this, as are many other islands. The "red state" unwillingness to require masks and distancing, and to encourage defiance of this common sense approach as some political statement of "asserting our rights", will go down in history as one of the great failures of our country. America's battered reputation in the world as a bunch of careless dupes who don't follow guidelines may be the single biggest impediment to our being allowed into other nations. It's the US that lacks sophistication.


Mask quality & effective application varies wildly. Broad "edicts" are insulting to free people...not an indication of national "sophistication".


----------



## TakeFive (Oct 22, 2009)

Tsteen1 said:


> Mask quality & effective application varies wildly. Broad "edicts" are insulting to free people...not an indication of national "sophistication".


Thanks to that kind of attitude, the US has been banned from travel to other countries while those in other countries are free to travel. Over 170,000 deaths, mostly avoidable. Even adjusted for our size, our per capita death rate is an embarrassment . Our economy is in the dumper.

Freedom comes with responsibilities. Fail to live up to those responsibilities, and you lose the ability to exercise your freedom.


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Tsteen1 said:


> Mask quality & effective application varies wildly. Broad "edicts" are insulting to free people...not an indication of national "sophistication".


I guess these folks below may agree with you, but I think they have completely missed the ideals upon which this country was founded.


----------



## Tsteen1 (Aug 23, 2020)

outbound said:


> Pragmatically if you had a decent test with a low false negative rate (not the ~20% for some of current ones) and were negative and same with all crew and it was done as close as possible before leaving risks during the voyage would be negligible. Ideally would test everyone on the boat for both viral RNA and presence of antibodies. That way know risks to people when they get to the new environment as well as knowing occupants weren't vectors.
> 
> Spent today with a fellow outbound owner and SDR member. SDR usually does a Maine cruise. Folks from Chessie commonly come up. OCC does something similar. However Maine is still requesting full quarantine for new arrivals or a documented negative test. For many this is an out of pocket expense if the test comes back negative. crazy times. Got a president who doesn't understand if percentage of positive tests increases virus is winning regardless of number of tests done (yes you can think of ridiculously unlikely scenarios where that wouldn't be true). Got insurance companies and states unwilling to pay for negative tests. Got citizens who still think the whole thing is not a big deal. That being the case think Europeans and Canadians will be cruising the Caribbean but US citizens won't be.





TakeFive said:


> Thanks to that kind of attitude, the US has been banned from travel to other countries while those in other countries are free to travel. Over 170,000 deaths, mostly avoidable. Even adjusted for our size, our per capita death rate is an embarrassment . Our economy is in the dumper.
> 
> Freedom comes with responsibilities. Fail to live up to those responsibilities, and you lose the ability to exercise your freedom.


My understanding... there was never an expectation that the virus would not "win". The effort is to manage exposure to allow worst cases best efforts treatment. With the exception of the NY "nursing home" debacle, some 35000 deaths, US fatality numbers compare reasonable to yearly influenza fatalities....right?


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Tsteen1 said:


> With the exception of the NY "nursing home" debacle, some 35000 deaths, US fatality numbers compare reasonable to yearly influenza fatalities....right?


No, not correct. You can find yearly influenza fatality data on the CDC website, and it averages ~37,000/yr. 2012 was a low year at 12,000, while 2018 was a high year at 61,000.

The US covid deaths currently stand at 180,000, and are projected to be 300,000 by December.

Even backing out all of the "exceptions" that certain viewpoints object to, influenza deaths aren't even close to being in the same ballpark.

You can "win" over viruses - when was the last polio or smallpox case you saw? We even have influenza under control, in that we have effective strategies and can coexist with it. We test for and track and trace influenza on national, state, and local levels, and the data are transparent. Outbreaks and hotspots are warned about, and public health officials are put on the ground to educate. Heck, we have strategies for Ebola.

The US hasn't even attempted to do any of this with Covid, and is losing badly through mind-blowing willful incompetence and utter lack of leadership.

Mark


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Tsteen1 said:


> US fatality numbers compare reasonable to yearly influenza fatalities....right?


Since there is a fairly effective vaccine for the "flu", most who die from it have chosen to take that chance. Therefor, it could be said that they died from suicide rather than the virus. With C-19, there is no viable choice, yet. Masks and social distancing are proven ways to retard the spread of the virus and I will never understand why anyone would object to that. Some wave the Constitution and Bill of rights around in one hand while waving a war weapon like an AK around in the other. Rather incongruous considering one represents freedom and individuality and the other oppression and death.


----------



## Tsteen1 (Aug 23, 2020)

capta said:


> Since there is a fairly effective vaccine for the "flu", most who die from it have chosen to take that chance. Therefor, it could be said that they died from suicide rather than the virus. With C-19, there is no viable choice, yet. Masks and social distancing are proven ways to retard the spread of the virus and I will never understand why anyone would object to that. Some wave the Constitution and Bill of rights around in one hand while waving a war weapon like an AK around in the other. Rather incongruous considering one represents freedom and individuality and the other oppression and death.


Of course masks & social distancing around other humans but I draw the line a wearing a mask whenever I leave the house. I take the flu vaccine every year...even though it's based on the previous year strain. I appreciate you sharing the info above. I am shut in months now with my 12 year old. I see visuals of beach parties, peaceful protests, riots, and now no return to school...likely til next year. I'm pretty beat down. Trying to rationalize a new normal.


----------



## colemj (Jul 10, 2003)

Tsteen1 said:


> I take the flu vaccine every year...even though it's based on the previous year strain.


It is more hopeful than that. The vaccine is based on actual circulating virus strains on the other side of the world during the time it is more dormant here, along with scientific probabilistic estimates of strains and expected distributions from previous experiences. If it really was based on the previous year's strain, it would be be much less effective.

Sometimes they get it wrong and we have a bad flu year, but other times it is dead on and things go very well.

We are all virtual shut ins with you (and my wife would say she is shut in with a 12yr old) feeling beat down and hoping like you for a new normal. You aren't alone there (and my wife will swap for your 12yr old). I don't know what a new normal is, but the current situation has completely shut down our previous plans and made new planning almost impossible.

Mark


----------



## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

*Tsteen1*
"I am shut in months now with my 12 year old".


colemj said:


> We are all virtual shut ins with you (and my wife would say she is shut in with a 12yr old) feeling beat down and hoping like you for a new normal. You aren't alone there (and my wife will swap for your 12yr old). Mark


Sorry, I haven't figured out the multi-quote thing.
Perhaps the Polynesians has it right. The children belonged to the village so the upbringing of them fell to all and not just their birth family.


----------

