# Hurricanes and other storms



## Petertherock (Aug 20, 2017)

Obviously watching the footage of Harvey and knowing another possible Cat 5 coming with Irma I have been doing a lot of thinking about this liveaboard thing. If I stay here in Maine, we still can get hurricanes but most of the time they are a lot weaker by the time they get here. Our biggest concern here in Maine is nor' easters. They are much like a hurricane and can do just as much damage if they are strong enough. 

Also, since I am also considering moving somewhere between SC and FL, Nor'easters won't be a concern but major hurricanes will be an issue. Most likely in Maine, a winter Nor'easter could be easily ridden out on board and since most people will have their boats out of the water it won't be as bad as a summer hurricane during boating season. 

So, the things I have been thinking of, in particular for hurricanes if I decide to relocate south, do people ride out the storms onboard? It seems if you have a Cat 4 or 5 like Harvey and possibly Irma that would be a deadly mistake. But of course this is your home, so what do you do? Obviously it depends on how strong the storm is. I would think anything above a Cat 3 up you would want to leave. I also imagine it depends on how well protected the marina is. Is there a rule of thumb on when you leave or ride it out? 

I have been concerned that all it takes is a bad storm to ruin your boat which is your home, but I guess it's no different than people that lose their homes on the hard during storms. You just have to be prepared to find temporary shelter until your boat gets repaired or replaced.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

You don't "ride out" a Cat 4-5 storm. You die in your boat/home. Look at photos of Rockport (where I have friends who lost homes).

The rule of thumb is that if it's a hurricane of any category and you're not offshore with zero options, you make a sensible choice and go to a shelter. Once the storm hits, there's absolutely nothing you can do to affect the outcome. Leave your boat, your home, whatever if you have any interest in surviving.

There's really no room for discussion.


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## Petertherock (Aug 20, 2017)

So another option would be living in Maine during the summer and hurricane season and going south for the winter. I was wondering how much fuel it would take to get from Portland Maine to somewhere between Jacksonville and Daytona Florida. Looking at about a 35 foot trawler. I just want to get a rough estimate to get from Maine to Florida. If that's too much money I could go to around Charleston, SC as it's pretty decent there in the winter.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

You are unlikely to live on your boat in Maine during winter. (mind you now I have said it a million people will now post they they always live on boats in ice.)

Winter lasts 6 months. A hurricane a day or 2.

Balance out your reality and the news media's reality. How many years in a row has Texas been battered by a hurricane?


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Our fellow poster @zeehag rode out Hurricane Patricia, which had maximum _sustained _winds of 215MPH, *in a hotel*. That is how you ride out a hurricane.

After the storm, she went back to check on her boat, and it survived. Amateur videos posted to Youtube showed conditions that looked like God's pressure washer blasting her location.


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## kd3pc (Oct 19, 2006)

OP, 

having lived aboard for some time, and did a fair amount of "blue water" sailing...I can tell you that you DON'T want to "ride out" a hurricane of ANY size. Even tropical storms or thunderstorms can try your body to the limits. Sadly there is no way to change your mind or step OFF the boat once the storm sets in. And to expect "someone" to rescue from such situation is ...well...never mind.

And those weather heads that tell you - the storm simply (and safely) went to sea...it still continues to be a storm/hurricane/typhoon and being anywhere NEAR one - can be deadly to the boat in it's path.

I sat one night, on the boat in Callao, in a slip pinned to one side, tilting 20-25 degrees as one of the bays' nightly thunder heads rolled through. Luckily it only lasted 20 minutes, but it pulled the chocks off the dock and several boats were destroyed bouncing against and under the adjacent slip/catwalk. Three sank, as their gunnels were trapped under the dock and when the storm abated and the tides rolled through - they took more water than they could get rid of, if the pumps even came on.

Given the choice, NEVER ride out the storm, of any kind. There is just too much that can, and most often will, happen.

YMMV, and as I usually say - your money, your boat and your life...


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## Petertherock (Aug 20, 2017)

MarkofSeaLife said:


> You are unlikely to live on your boat in Maine during winter. (mind you now I have said it a million people will now post they they always live on boats in ice.)
> 
> Winter lasts 6 months. A hurricane a day or 2.
> 
> Balance out your reality and the news media's reality. How many years in a row has Texas been battered by a hurricane?


That may be true..but some people that liveaboard in Maine during the winter say they enjoy winter more on a boat then they ever did on the hard. But I think I would be more comfortable in the south.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

eherlihy said:


> Our fellow poster @zeehag rode out Hurricane Patricia, which had maximum _sustained _winds of 215MPH, *in a hotel*. After the storm, she went back to check on her boat, and it survived. Amateur videos posted to Youtube showed conditions that looked like God's pressure washer blasting her location.
> 
> That is how you ride out a hurricane.


if the orientation of my boat is correct, with bow into winds, i will ride out on board to cat 3, than run like scalded cat on crack into a hotel or office of the marina with my critters. unless i am in a designed cane hole so proven such as the one in which i weathered patricia. i felt safe there. 
friends rode patricia on board their boats--those headed bow into winds were fine. beam presentation, such as was my boat and a neighbor, was inadequate preparation. the situation was total white out and painful raindrops. crawling possible at best. 
always pump bilge in and during eye of storm.
canes are hell on your hair.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

Don't have much to offer on riding out big storms, but I can say there is nothing unusual about living aboard in cold climates. It's just part of life when you live aboard a boat above a certain latitude. Having the right infrastructure in place makes a big difference. 

The best can think of as a cold climate city with lots of live aboards is Toronto. It must have half a dozen winter live aboard Marina's and clubs, between them there are a lot of people who live aboard through ice conditions. But, Toronto isn't Maine and Toronto doesn't get Nor Easter's or Hurricanes, so cold and ice don't really equate to hurricanes and storms.

As long as you have enough amperage to run a couple of ice eaters and a reliable heat source, it's not unreasonable to live on a boat somewhere with freezing temperatures.

It's kind of fun in a hard to describe kind of way.


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## MarkofSeaLife (Nov 7, 2010)

I have only been a fool twice in my life. 

Both times I rode out a hurricane. 

By the time the fear of your own death settles into your heart and mind its too late to get off the boat. 

By the time you realize your foolishness could kill the person you love most, that you've told 'it will be fine', and she looks at you with eyes that say 'so I am going to die?' it's too late to get off the boat. 


Yes, I was a fool twice. 


Never again. 


Mark


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

There are several videos on YouTube of people staying on their boats during "hurricanes". I put that in quotes because your location has almost everything to do with whether you actually experience hurricane level conditions even with a hurricane in close proximity.

This is a good one from hurricane Wilma which at one point had been a Cat 5.






By the time this was taken, the storm was a Cat 2+. And as you can see in the video, he lost his boat along with most of the others that were in the area. And lots of structural damage to buildings, etc. to boot. This is the real deal.

Then there is this one from hurricane Matthew which was a Cat 4 when it hit Haiti where this boat was...






BUT, this boat was around 80-100 miles away from the eye, and in a very, very sheltered bay called Petite Guave. And from what I recall in his video he estimated the peak wind *gusts* where he was at to be about 80 knots. That's below Cat 1. So to call this "riding out a hurricane at anchor" is *definitely* pushing it. Sure there was a nasty hurricane in the area, but he didn't experience a hurricane. Much of what these guys do is purely youth and hubris. They are smart, capable people - but make really bad decisions a lot of the time. They've had luck on their side thus far. I hope it continues.

Mark is the one to listen to. You just don't do it.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Here is a marina at Port Aransas which took the hit from Harvey...
































































And another marina at Rockport...


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Amazing pics Smack.

Also amazing is to see the number of boats with roller furling headsails and dodgers biminis not removed. Basic hurricane prep.


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## Petertherock (Aug 20, 2017)

From the videos and pics I can see it's better to collect the insurance and get another boat then to try to ride it out and end up dead.


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## midwesterner (Dec 14, 2015)

smackdaddy said:


> BUT, this boat was around 80-100 miles away from the eye, and in a very, very sheltered bay called Petite Guave. And from what I recall in his video he estimated the peak wind *gusts* where he was at to be about 80 knots. That's below Cat 1. So to call this "riding out a hurricane at anchor" is *definitely* pushing it. Sure there was a nasty hurricane in the area, but he didn't experience a hurricane. Much of what these guys do is purely youth and hubris. They are smart, capable people - but make really bad decisions a lot of the time. They've had luck on their side thus far. I hope it continues.


And, for all these videos of people who survived riding out at the edge of a hurricane, the videos we won't see are the people who tried it and lost their life, their boat, and their video camera.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

More reasonable is to migrate with the seasons. New England in summer. Eastern Caribbean rest of the year. Yes you can shrink wrap the boat and run the wabasto but it's hard to get or make water, hard to get fuel and hard to negotiate ice coated docks with your hands full of groceries. Yes, the boat is toastie warm but the rest of your world isn't as most marinas aren't plowed and shoveled nor spread with ice melt. 
Current issue is hurricane season used to be well defined with September 10 its peak and just about nothing in the spring or after beginning of November. Due to climate change the bell shaped curve isn't as reliable and the tails on both sides seem longer. We've made arrangements for a short haul in advance for named storms that look nasty. This is easy in the northeast. It's harder to do in southern US and nearly impossible if you are constant motion in the Caribbean without a long term relationship with a marina.
My insurance (as does most) pays for getting out and I'm willing to pay for going back in. Suggest you do the same. Given cyclonic flow no hurricane hole is going to always be safe. Depending on whether the storm track is to the left or right of you you will see surge or wind.


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## capecodda (Oct 6, 2009)

The last one that really hit my neighborhood was hurricane Bob in 1991. I was on my way to the Cape, got as far as Situate when the storm started to make the turn north just off Georgia. Spoke with the harbormaster, and was able to secure an inner harbor mooring before most people were even thinking about it. Got some chafe gear from the local hardware store, and took all my sails and canvas off. 12 hours later, everyone was doing the same. There was a big trawler yacht in the harbor, the harbor master could not talk them into moving off the boat, it was their home. He asked them to name next of kin. They still stayed with the boat. We took the boat papers off and moved into a hotel, but could see the bay from there. It blew only about 110 according to the harbormasters instruments, but the spray (not rain) from the ocean, in the bay was visible to about 20' elevation above the water. 4-5' short chop in a tiny bay with no fetch. The harbor entrance looked like the bonzi pipeline. The coasties had the survival suits on, and a boat at the ready, although it looked to me like they couldn't have done much in those conditions. Quite a few boats broke loose and were damaged. Our boat was not damaged, but I'd say this was mostly luck. Lucky the harbormaster put me on a good mooring, lucky no one up wind broke free, lucky it was only 110. 

This was only about cat 2 when it hit, and short duration as they often are in NE as they get swept up in the jet. In the bay on CC where we keep the boat now, most of the boats that were on moorings either dragged their moorings or broke free and ended up against a causeway and bridge. Damaged, sunk, or destroyed. We don't stay here above tropical storm conditions, we pull the boats. Staying aboard in those conditions, out of the question. I'd like to be here a few more years. It's just a boat.

This was a relatively minor hurricane.

Great point by Out, if you don't have a relationship with a boat yard, you will likely not get hauled as they deal with their regular customers first as a storm approaches. Either be someplace were hurricanes are out of season, or someplace where you've got a relationship with a yard. 

We are watching Irma closely.


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## FrankAPR (Sep 5, 2017)

I wouldn't take my chances with even a Cat 1 hurricane.... damage can randomly happen from any storm. I'd always side with a system that is overly prepared and cautious than playing roulette with mother nature.


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## hellosailor (Apr 11, 2006)

Riding out a Cat4 or Cat5 storm would be an interesting option, because the strongest building codes and hurricane shelters are generally built to the "Miami Dade" standard. Which is only Category 3.

If Irma moves up Florida as a Cat4 or Cat5...please look online for photos of Hurricane Andrew (Cat 4) and what that did in Florida. Or Wilma, Cat2. With the "new" Cat3 building codes, even if no one cheated, a slow moving Cat4 will probably leave several counties with no roofs. A Cat5 will be a 400 mile wide bulldozer. 

So, sheltering on board? Arguably wouldn't be worse than sheltering on land, because the only places built to withstand a Cat5 are generally the EOCs (Emergency Operation Centers) and similar government/fire buildings of fairly new construction. Even the hospitals are not built to withstand Cat4/5.

You might read the classic "Fastnet, Force 10" for a observation and study of what and how a boat caught in Force 10 winds might do to survive.

Houston only survived because Harvey was downgraded from Cat4 to Tropical Storm almost immediately on making landfall. "GTF out of Dodge" is pretty much the only good hurricane plan when they are that strong.


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## Slayer (Jul 28, 2006)

As to living aboard in the N'East during winter I'm reminded of an article written by Fatty Goodlander where he describes he and his wife living aboard during winter in Winthrop, MA, which is not as far north as Maine. They woke up to go to work and his wife's hair was frozen to the hull of the boat. Condensation formed inside the hull where their birth was, and when the temperature dropped with her hair resting on the hull it froze to it. He had to use a blow dryer to unstick her. She took it in stride and that was when he was certain he had the right woman.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

hellosailor--harvey hit rockport as an intensifying cat 4 and didnot slow down until after the next day. where do you get that it was only a ts?? it had to get to houston, which is not on the gulf before slowing down. 
yes much damages you all forgot about--rockport, port aransas, corpus christie and the beach towns were decimated. you forget that part dont you, only houston is important therefore only houston is attended to. wake up. houston is inland. storm was a cat 4 intensifying on landfall and then on to houston. that is a bit more than a day, as you recall.
i guess it is all attributed to short term memory loss these days.....


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## albrazzi (Oct 15, 2014)

Checking with my Insurance carrier today their suggestion (not a requirement) was to find a good place to anchor through the storm. Although its not a bad idea, properly done, we are not doing that. But a 20' surge will ride better if there are no docks. The rest is a wild card, we're in a pretty good spot to anchor and I've seen people do it successfully but I wouldn't stay aboard, if the Boat can't take care of itself you don't need to be there.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

hellosailor said:


> Riding out a Cat4 or Cat5 storm would be an interesting option, because the strongest building codes and hurricane shelters are generally built to the "Miami Dade" standard. Which is only Category 3.
> 
> If Irma moves up Florida as a Cat4 or Cat5...please look online for photos of Hurricane Andrew (Cat 4) and what that did in Florida. Or Wilma, Cat2. With the "new" Cat3 building codes, even if no one cheated, a slow moving Cat4 will probably leave several counties with no roofs. A Cat5 will be a 400 mile wide bulldozer.
> 
> ...


If you intend to stay on your boat in a cat 4 or 5 write your social security number on your arm to help identify your body.

Here is a before and after of the hurricane hole in Tortola. These boats boats were on heavy duty insurance company approved hurricane moorings.

There were about a 100 boats at anchor in Simpson bay almost all are ashore or sunk.


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

I'm tiring of all the "expert advice." No seaman worth his salt stays on a boat during a named storm unless it is his job and he gets caught at sea. Marilyn, 1995, was a Cat 2 (but NE quadrant hit) and several people died on their boats in the Lagoon in St. Thomas. When all they had to do was go to the party up the hill above the boatyard. One of them was found when someone heard a "beeping" and flipped over a piece of fiberglass in the mangroves. It was his watch. I call shenanigans on all this "expert" advice. And riding out a winter Noreaster in Maine? Were you in Maine 2 years ago for the storm? Most marinas pull all their docks, and sitting on a mooring in icewater in a whiteout blizzard would be suicidal.


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## Charles88 (Sep 8, 2017)

smackdaddy said:


> You don't "ride out" a Cat 4-5 storm. You die in your boat/home. Look at photos of Rockport (where I have friends who lost homes).
> 
> The rule of thumb is that if it's a hurricane of any category and you're not offshore with zero options, you make a sensible choice and go to a shelter. Once the storm hits, there's absolutely nothing you can do to affect the outcome. Leave your boat, your home, whatever if you have any interest in surviving.
> 
> There's really no room for discussion.


well said


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## Indevolatile (Nov 3, 2006)

The question I have is this: It seems like the storm warnings start broadcasting 3-4 days before anything happens, so why don't people just sail their boats elsewhere? You could conceivably be 300-400 miles away by the time it hits, assuming 100-mile days in a straight line. Why choose between staying aboard or sheltering ashore while leaving your boat to fate? It looked like Irma was only moving at an average 4-6kts at times, which should give you plenty of time to get out of it's way.


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## Slayer (Jul 28, 2006)

Indevolatile said:


> The question I have is this: It seems like the storm warnings start broadcasting 3-4 days before anything happens, so why don't people just sail their boats elsewhere? You could conceivably be 300-400 miles away by the time it hits, assuming 100-mile days in a straight line. Why choose between staying aboard or sheltering ashore while leaving your boat to fate? It looked like Irma was only moving at an average 4-6kts at times, which should give you plenty of time to get out of it's way.


Read "At The Mercy of the Sea." It's a great book. Hurricanes can be unpredictable and can follow you if you try to sail away.


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## AJC506 (Nov 3, 2016)

Indevolatile said:


> The question I have is this: It seems like the storm warnings start broadcasting 3-4 days before anything happens, so why don't people just sail their boats elsewhere? You could conceivably be 300-400 miles away by the time it hits, assuming 100-mile days in a straight line. Why choose between staying aboard or sheltering ashore while leaving your boat to fate? It looked like Irma was moving at an average 4-6kts, and at that rate you could stay ahead of it almost indefinitely, even if it were chasing directly after you.


Irma was moving at 14 knots.
3 days out, the projections were mainly centered around hitting Miami.
Actual landfall, Key West and Port Charlotte, couple hundred miles west. 
Storm is a couple hundred miles across.
Look at potential tracks 3 days out and show where you go that you know is safe.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

AJC506 said:


> Irma was moving at 14 knots.
> 3 days out, the projections were mainly centered around hitting Miami.
> Actual landfall, Key West and Port Charlotte, couple hundred miles west.
> Storm is a couple hundred miles across.
> ...


Boats in the Leewards and VIs could sail south and get to a safe zone in less than 2 days sail.


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## Indevolatile (Nov 3, 2006)

AJC506 said:


> Look at potential tracks 3 days out and show where you go that you know is safe.


Well, considering potential targets (in this case boaters) were either on the east coast or west coast of Florida, you'd go either 200 mi west (conservatively), or 200 mi east. This gets you well outside the projected storm track from 3 days earlier. https://www.gannett-cdn.com/media/2...04783497685885-090817-irma-fri-2pm-online.png

I mean, you might still be in force 6-8 conditions, but it seems better than the alternative.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

I think that the decision to get out of Dodge pre Irma if you were in the USVI BVI St Marten ANtigua was an easy one to make. I know of a number of cruisers who left and sailed South AFAIK all arrived safely in Martinique or points further South. Of the cruisers who decided to stay many/most lost their boats. 

If you were in Florida pre Irma then sailing to Mexico or maybe just South Padre Island makes sense. 

I don't think the bug out option is as clear cut for a storm like Harvey and you are sitting somewhere like Houston. Where do you go? Bearing in mind the likely strong easterly winds.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

i give notices to folks when i see the damn thing forming. folks donot pay attention, folks get hurt. too bad. their laziness choice. 
every year, every storm this identical situation happens. 
folks get 2 weeks lead time in atlantic ocean and caribbean except for the strange lil carib originating storms, to move, prep, whatever, and still fail to attend to their boats issues and potential issues. apparently most folks in east coast donot know how to prep for a storm. nor do they know how to figure their weather..they rely on predigested weather input and therefore have 4 days lead time. 
when i was 7 i was advised bny my sailing maestro that i need to know my weather if iwas going to be a sailor. real sailors know their weather, i was told. ok so i started learning at that age as a hobby. next visit to grandmothers, i was not even 8 yrs old, i told uncle phil our pending weather, so we went sailing. 
no issue.
is easy to be able to know weather... to not know it is to die or lose boat, which used to be worse than death for a real sailor. 
a lot has changed. 
which is not for the better.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Darwinism will thin the herd if you ascribe to the above.
Most on this thread are on 5-6kt. boats. Some are a bit more fortunate ( self ) being on 7.5-8.4kt boats but in actual practice a days work is 125m - 135m for most and 150-175m for some. I've had 14 200m days in 4 years. Quite a few 180-190m days but it's not something to count on. We do 6.5kt -6.7 Kt. under power at 2200rpm and have 200g burning 1.1g/h. Compare this to your own boat and you'll see you aren't going very far under power. 
Hurricane systems often extend over ~500-600m. Associated waves maybe even farther. Some here have experience a few hours of line squalls or t-storms. Or a day of gale. Even 3-4d of a nor'easter. But a hurricane is a different kettle of fish. 
Between wind and wave safe may mean being close to a thousand miles away. You don't know it's path. You don't know will it weaken or strengthen. You don't know how long it will persist. You do know the general hx. of systems in your area.
So prepositioning makes sense. Spend the hurricane season in Granada or Trinidad. Watch the 500mb and the INVESTs and head south when the thing is still off of Africa. Go a couple of hundred miles up a river ( Hudson made sense for Sandy). But visions of out running a hurricane in a few days before the strike doesn't. Even 4-6d of gale/storm force conditions is more than most here can handle let alone your boats. So being out of the hurricane doesn't mean you're out of danger.
Hindsight is 20/20.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

eherlihy said:


> Our fellow poster @zeehag rode out Hurricane Patricia, which had maximum _sustained _winds of 215MPH, *in a hotel*. That is how you ride out a hurricane.
> 
> After the storm, she went back to check on her boat, and it survived. Amateur videos posted to Youtube showed conditions that looked like God's pressure washer blasting her location.


So how can you say, "you cannot ride out a storm" if the boat survived? A good well prepared sailboat is far safer than a house. Water rises above the house and your screwed. So you are going to say get farther away, same for the boat. Just get farther away or better protected and better prepared.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Mark more people die on land than in a boat. More houses are destroyed than boats. More people get trapped in or on their houses than get trapped in a boat. There are generally more looters and gang members out to harm you on land than in a boat. When the ones that do go ashore, do they just hit the beach and sit down? No they go as far as they can get. They find good protection and get provisions (If they can find them). A boat moves, move it. Most any blue water boat can withstand a hurricane. Prepare the boat, move it as far as you can, Stock it up. Stay away from hard docks and other boats. You proved you can be safe on a boat. You have yet to prove what it is like to sit on top of a house an wait for help.


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Do you get many hurricanes in "Dickinson, ND?"


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

I believe that the reason that there are so few fatalities on sailboats in hurricanes is that most people that live on or own sailboats have the sense to prep the boat and get off before the storm hits (that's what our friend @zeehag did).

From another thread;


cdy said:


> I know the Keys got just about wiped out - here on the east coast of Florida ( Cocoa area) storm did a lot of damage to anything on the west side of the intracoastal - the anchorage where I moor my Pearson 26 was pretty much wiped out - about 20 boats before the storm - only 4 left after - ( mine was one of the lucky 4) the storm also destroyed the park where the boat ramp was located and the wooden river walk in downtown Cocoa - the boats were a mixed bag - some derelicts and other nice livaboards - the nicest - Cabo Rico 38 - smashed up against the seawall - pretty much all the large boats were trashed - only 3 survived without damage - mine, a Hunter 25, and a Erickson 35. There was a nice SOuth African made boat that a couple was cruising on - well equipped - talked to them before storm - they were keeping the boat there on a large anchor but staying ashore - saw the boat sunk and smashed against boat ramp. All of these boats made it through Matthew last year - Matthew actually had stronger gusts - but Irma blew 50 knots plus for 12 hours from the east and southeast - building up huge wave /surge on the western shore - I am sure the increased wave heights is what got most. The marina.slips behind the condo next to me was destroyed - most boats on the lifts survived but anything in the water was sunk or damaged - marinas on the east side or marinas protected from the SE did OK- further up north a number of marinas were destroyed in Jacksonville area - I assume most in St Augustine sustained heavy damage - Jax is suffering its worst flooding ever. My old sailing Club - the Rudder Club - the docks were pretty much wiped out - Green Cove Springs Marina survived pretty well - a couple of sunken boats but not too bad.
> 
> The are probably 1000's of boats sunk or jammed on shore - Florida had a program to remove derelict boats in the recent years and had gotten pretty much all of them removed - now they will have to start over again with 10 times as many - how is going to pay?
> 
> ...


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

I have gone through somewhere around 50 tropical cyclonic storms over my career and the only significant one I did not stay aboard the boat for was Andrew. I do not recommend that anyone else do so, but to say flat out that it is insane to stay with your boat home and do your best (which is often enough) to keep her safe, is based more on fear and ignorance than reality.
As Irma has once again shown, "hurricane holes" aren't necessarily the safe haven that so many inexperienced sailors wish to believe they are. And lack of preparation is indeed a significant reason why so many boats are lost unnecessarily. We not only take down our sails and canvas, but lay the booms in the scuppers as well.
However, for those staying aboard, the choice of where to stay is a huge factor in how well your vessel survives. As the pictures from any hurricane will show, a marina is not necessarily the best choice. I've lived through some pretty horrendous storms without any damage at all, in mangrove lagoons or up rivers, but I've been alone with no other boats nearby. If I choose to stay in a marina, as we did for what was to become Matthew, I chose a slip with motor boats on either side, so my rig would not foul with another sailboat's.
*"Once the storm hits, there's absolutely nothing you can do to affect the outcome."* This is absolute malarkey! I believe most boats in the water are lost due to chafe. And that's where a boat with a crew has the advantage over those left without. Checking dock lines or anchor rodes for chafe and doing something about it before a line/rode fails can be the difference between the boat surviving and not.
It is not fun, adventurous or a great experience to go through a cyclonic tropical storm on a boat, or even in a building. I describe the experience as being similar to standing one foot away from a freight train doing 60 miles an hour for 8 hours or so, without a break. It's unrelenting noise and pressure and tension. There are no do-overs: if you decide to stay somewhere during a storm (building or boat), you will not likely have any opportunity to change your mind and seek shelter somewhere else once you are in the thick of it. Nobody is going to come help you, should things get out of control. You are most certainly on your own.
Of course, the best survival method when contemplating an approaching tropical cyclonic storm, is to just not be there when it arrives. These days there is certainly plenty of information available online for the mariner to avoid a tropical cyclonic storm, in most cases. Forecasts are helpful, but what directs and guides these storms is pretty well understood these days and you have a pretty good chance of avoiding one if you are able to interpret the information available. Even without paying a great deal of attention to the systems directing Irma, it was pretty apparent she wasn't going to make any massive moves to the south as she approached the Leeward Islands. Therefore, sailing south into the open waters of the central Caribbean was surely a better bet than sitting in St Martin or the Virgins, even in the best "hurricane hole". I would also have felt pretty confident about sheltering on the south coast of PR. The Keys and Florida were a completely different story, but I had no reason to monitor Irma carefully at all, much less up that way, so I'm not sure what would have been my thoughts as to the best course of action up there, had I been carefully studying the weather.
Just as some will ignore evacuation orders to protect their homes from wildfires, some of us feel it our responsibility to protect our boat homes as best we can. There is no "rule of thumb". It is a personal choice and one that should not be lightly come to. So far, I've chosen to stay aboard and I have been 100 percent successful in keeping my boats from harm, and that includes one storm with wind gusts reportedly around 180 knots. 
As in anything, fear filled cries of doom by the inexperienced and ignorant should not be your guide. Your own judgement of your capabilities in any situation, especially one of this nature, must be your guide.


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## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

eherlihy said:


> Do you get many hurricanes in "Dickinson, ND?"


My wife was born in Dickinson, she can be a bit of a hurricane some days. Never more than cat 3 though.


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## zeehag (Nov 16, 2008)

reaffixing lines in a 215 mph steady winds situation is fools game.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Minnesail said:


> My wife was born in Dickinson, she can be a bit of a hurricane some days. Never more than cat 3 though.


I think most people missed my point, I think Capta captured it though.

It is not that Hurricanes cannot be managed it is that we refuse to do so. Take away the insurance or render it a mute point. You are not going to leave your boat in harms way. And for some their house so to speak. On shore you see people putting up plywood on their houses, yet you see boats with sails and the Bimini up. A house you cannot move, a boat you can. The original poster wanted to know if they could survive a Hurricane if they moved down South. That's no different than asking if you can survive a Tornado in Kansas. Yes you can IF you get prepared with a good plan. I've been through 3 Tornadoes one 100 yards, one 1/4 mile and one 10 miles. you have NO warning to at best 30 min to 1 hour. You don't have a plan, forget it. I think marinas should offer bunkers that would put the keel below ground level with a bunker for the mast along side. Yes it costs a little money to rent it and prep but you save the boat, save the insurance, and just have that I'm covered feeling.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

outbound said:


> Darwinism will thin the herd if you ascribe to the above.
> Hindsight is 20/20.


outbound if your referring to me, how is getting out and or preparing thinning the herd? Your idea is to just leave your boat tied hoping it does not destroy your neighbors boat? If you do not think your boat is safe enough to stay on it why do you leave it? It just becomes someone's problem. Move it to a place that is safe or make it safe. Your thinking just thins out the serviceable sailboats available.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

zeehag said:


> reaffixing lines in a 215 mph steady winds situation is fools game.


Totally agree, especially if you have other options like not being there in the first place.


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## hellsop (Jun 3, 2014)

Indevolatile said:


> The question I have is this: It seems like the storm warnings start broadcasting 3-4 days before anything happens, so why don't people just sail their boats elsewhere? You could conceivably be 300-400 miles away by the time it hits, assuming 100-mile days in a straight line. Why choose between staying aboard or sheltering ashore while leaving your boat to fate? It looked like Irma was only moving at an average 4-6kts at times, which should give you plenty of time to get out of it's way.


Which elsewhere? Is that where the storm is going or not? Is there a place to be, there, or are you now 300 miles out with no idea where the storm is going? (99% of the boats in an average marina have no provision for getting even a weather forecast even 30 miles from shore. Heck 90% never even GO that far from dock.) And from Florida, you're kind of constrained. Cuba's only 100 miles south, and it's a LONG LONG way around. Either west or east is cut off, depending on whether you're on the east or west coast of Florida. And north? Well, if the storm is going to turn, it's going to turn north. Which means you're just as screwed, a day or two later. And in the gulf, you run out of "north" pretty quick too.

Granted, I'm making a pretty big presumption that one is "in Caribbean or Florida, or the Gulf of Mexico", but that's kind of where most of the hurricanes are/go, and you're a lot less worried about them if you're even as far north as Charleston. At that point, you're probably already dealing with a much-weakened storm and are pretty unconcerned about more than making sure your floating dock has tall enough pilings and you've got enough anti-chafing measures deployed.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Hellsop, If you have no where to go take it out, stake it out, with everything removed. A boat that is just anchored out and left or left on a mooring ball without being prepared is just a danger to other boats that did get prepared. It is or should be the nature of owning a boat in the hurricane belt during hurricane season. Also you can go up the Mississippi I am pretty sure. Maybe it's just me, but if I owned a boat in the Hurricane belt I would have a plan. I am also sure that the boat I would own would not cost me over $30,000.00 and there is no way I could afford to loose that and just start over. My point still is that it is possible to save yourself AND your boat in Hurricane alley.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Dan seems you're trolling without a lure. Every insurance I've ever had over 35+ years pays for a haul for a named storm. We make sure we're all set to be hauled if need be before the start of hurricane season and make sure we are not in the hurricane zone during hurricane season. Many of the islands just hit have storage which includes a pit for the keel and steel I beam or other heavy duty supports for the boat. Have friends who left their boats in such facilities. They lost their boats. Apparently such arrangements do no good when the boat floats out of its confines or is adequately restrained but underwater and inundated. All such facilities I've seen are in coastal settings. Yet to see storage at higher attitudes except for in Mattipoissett.
Going up a river is viable in some circumstances. Particularly if you can get up the river far enough to escape severe surge and are surrounded by cliffs or high hills. The Hudson is navigable for hundreds of miles. Know of boats who survived sandy by doing this. 
Mangroves offer multiple opportunities to run a multiplicity of lines with clean runs to secure the boat. They also buffer the wind like being protected by surrounding cliffs. However, such advantages will be overwhelmed in a cat 5 storm with severe surge if you are seeing 185mph winds. 
Due to climate change we are seeing more 500y events. What works for cat 3 often doesn't for cat 5. Only safe thing in a cat 5 for you is be in a building constructed to withstand a cat 5 or out of the area. Only safe thing for the boat is to not be in the hurricane zone or stripped and properly stored above any projected surge. Even then it's still at risk.
Dan we're in a different mindset about this. The boat is my major asset but it's meaningless compared with my life. My social group is comprised of live aboards, bluewater sailors,cruisers and people who run or move boats. I've experienced storm conditions ( NOAA definition not smackies - just kidding big guy). It beats all the macho out of you. Agree with Ms. Zeetag, never want to be on a boat in a hurricane. Got stuck on my boat securing thing at the start of a hurricane. It fell to a storm. Mooring was rated to 60'. Had a Tayana at the time. Was totally delighted when CG came by and got me off. Even though things weren't at hurricane force yacht club launch couldn't run nor could the smaller harbormaster boats. I had left instructions to give me 1/2h then get me with the launch. Expected strike was hours away. System moved much faster than expected so club called CG to pick up its members. 
So yes the herd I trail will tell you the herd that doesn't respect the forces involved will be thinned. The death rate for the last two has yet to be counted. Some will die of disease, social breakdown or further mishaps. Still as you know we were very fortunate death count to date is so low. Think we should pray for those in the leewards as they have years of work to recover and do what we can to support those in Florida and the Eastern Gulf coast. Please send checks to Red Cross or Salty Dawg Sailing Association relief Fund. Stop trolling.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

hellsop said:


> Which elsewhere? Is that where the storm is going or not? Is there a place to be, there, or are you now 300 miles out with no idea where the storm is going? (99% of the boats in an average marina have no provision for getting even a weather forecast even 30 miles from shore. Heck 90% never even GO that far from dock.) And from Florida, you're kind of constrained. Cuba's only 100 miles south, and it's a LONG LONG way around. Either west or east is cut off, depending on whether you're on the east or west coast of Florida. And north? Well, if the storm is going to turn, it's going to turn north. Which means you're just as screwed, a day or two later. And in the gulf, you run out of "north" pretty quick too.
> 
> Granted, I'm making a pretty big presumption that one is "in Caribbean or Florida, or the Gulf of Mexico", but that's kind of where most of the hurricanes are/go, and you're a lot less worried about them if you're even as far north as Charleston. At that point, you're probably already dealing with a much-weakened storm and are pretty unconcerned about more than making sure your floating dock has tall enough pilings and you've got enough anti-chafing measures deployed.


+1.

Honestly, anyone that talks about "outrunning" a storm - especially one like Irma - is blowing hubris-choked smoke. First, have you guys been watching how many systems blow off of Africa and are marked by the HC as potential storms? These 2 in this image have blown up just in the last few hours...










So, if you're in the Bahamas/Virgin Islands/(etc.) - will these be a threat? How do you know? And if you think they will be, which way do you run? HC won't start modeling them until they turn into a tropical storm...which usually happens quite a bit further west than they are now, meaning they'll be a lot closer when you make that call. Remember, there is A LOT of area north and west of these current tracks.

And as was said above, if it's something like Irma, which covered *a few hundred miles* - you have *very, very little room for error*. Yet some talk like they don't need a cone of uncertainty.

Yes, it's possible to see something coming and leave the place you're in to make as much room as possible once you're pretty sure it's coming at you (especially if you live on your boat and have no ties to any place). And then it's also possible to actually have that storm go over the exact spot you *were* in. And then you'll probably brag a lot about how good of a skipper you are.

But the bottom line is that, if the storm is at all fast and big - you were simply lucky. And lucky is just never a good game plan. For those of you who have sailed offshore - who has *NOT* been caught by a storm they tried to skirt or outrun? In our last video I showed a big system that came on us within a couple of hours and encircled us almost 180 degrees. In the video you can see a small crack of daylight in the front. We sailed for that. And, no surprise, we didn't make it because it was MILES ahead of us and the system was changing way faster than we could adjust. We took it on the chin because there was no other choice.

So I think Zee had it exactly right in her decision-making during her hurricane. I will follow in her wake over that of others. I'd say she's more than proven herself as a good skipper. Her boat made it *through* a monster just fine.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Outbound I responded by email but it did not show up. not sure what trolling means, but talking about a subject is what these boards are about. If one asked a question and just listened to one response where is the discussion? We are of different mindset, you have the money to just leave your boat to it's fate. I do not. I have a mindset that if there is a hurricane I'm going to leave the area, live somewhere else and see different countryside for a bit. The original poster wanted to know what to do during hurricane season. some told him don't bother coming down stay home. Some said come down get out of your boat and leave it to it's own fate. I say go on down, but be prepared with a plan. During hurricane season make sure you can go somewhere safe with your boat. I am sure with all of your knowledge you know of the hurricane box. Just be prepared to leave the box if need be. Again have a plan. It is not that difficult.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

smackdaddy said:


> +1.
> 
> But the bottom line is that, if the storm is at all fast and big - you were simply lucky. And lucky is just never a good game plan.


You hit that on the head, do not rely on luck. Have a GOOD game plan from the start if you plan on being in the box during hurricane season.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Have poor internet so can't copy pics. Local paper showed pics of hurricane hole,coral bay,usvi this am. Total loss. All boats gone. Guess won't be getting my favorite hamburger in the leewards for years to come. 
Looking at pics and talking with friends seems multis and monos fared just as bad. Be interesting to read surveyor reports on nature of destruction. Wonder if any Brent boats got through it and then just sailed off afterwards.


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## eherlihy (Jan 2, 2007)

Read this; 'Destruction amid devastation': The Daily News takes 1st look at damage on St. John | Breaking | virginislandsdailynews.com


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

Skipper Dan said:


> Mark more people die on land than in a boat. More houses are destroyed than boats. More people get trapped in or on their houses than get trapped in a boat. There are generally more looters and gang members out to harm you on land than in a boat. When the ones that do go ashore, do they just hit the beach and sit down? No they go as far as they can get. They find good protection and get provisions (If they can find them). A boat moves, move it. Most any blue water boat can withstand a hurricane. Prepare the boat, move it as far as you can, Stock it up. Stay away from hard docks and other boats. You proved you can be safe on a boat. You have yet to prove what it is like to sit on top of a house an wait for help.


flawed logic... the number of boats compared to dirt residences will show that boats are less likely to survive a hurricane.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Dan in reality it is difficult for many in south eastern US to even preposition or make a good plan for hurricane season. We entertained spending part of the summer at charleston city dock. In the northeast boats haul for the winter so there's ample room and hauling facilities for an upcoming storm with a bit of forethought. It's much more difficult in the south east to make a viable failsaft plan.
Insurance commonly requires you be north of 40 between June 1 to November 1. Historically season started in June and ended November 30 in a bell shaped curve peaking September 10. The tails were a very sharp drop with little or no activity near the tails. Now the picture seems different with sporadic activity occurring outside that smooth curve. Also as predicted by climate change models intensity is likely to be higher. Still, prepositioning outside the hurricane zone and being either near the equator or north of 40 continues to make sense. Even doing that can be hard. Last spring we tried to follow that rule. Left sopers end of May. Due to a front extending from central Bahamas to Nova Scotia was forced to slow the boat and ultimately hove to 200m north east of Abacos for six days. Had no interest in seeing 60kt with my wife on board. Trip that normally takes 7-9 days to Newport took us 16. While hove to saw tstorms 360 around the boat at times. If a cyclonic system developed during that time we would have been up the creek without a paddle.
Reality is even on a gunboat or rapido 60 best advice is to not be in the hurricane zone during hurricane season. If possible be north of 40 or in Trinidad. Even then have not a plan but actual arrangements for a storm haul. I feel sorry for those living on board south of 40 where options are more problematic.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Outbound, now that seems like a very sensible plan. Mother Nature does not always work into our plans, but I think she trumps here. No matter where you live in the US or world for that matter there is something you have to worry about. I think that is the aspect about living aboard that makes it so great. Just keep moving with the seasons to the best places on Earth.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Dan we're on the same page. Sorry for prior confusion.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

When you own a boat you need to consider the weather/climate where you keep and sail the boat. Hurricanes are very intense and boats don't get on well with them... so you want to not be where they are when they are expected. It's that simple. If you can't secure or protect your boat or keep it from being in harm's way... you probably will lose the boat one day when the odds catch up with you.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Okay, let's play the game...

Here's the update with that system just coming off Africa now increasing to a 60% chance of development into a cyclone...










You're in Martinique or Tortola or Turks & Caicos or Miami or Charleston - do you leave yet? Which way do you go? And how far will have to go to be sure you're out of its way?


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## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

smackdaddy said:


> You're in Martinique or Tortola or Turks & Caicos or Miami or Charleston - do you leave yet? Which way do you go? And how far will have to go to be sure you're out of its way?


New York is lovely in autumn.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Minnesail said:


> New York is lovely in autumn.


I was thinking Panama or Columbia, maybe a trip up the Amazon River.... so many places to go so little time..


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

New York and Panama. Okay, I like it...

Have you left yet? And if so, from which of the listed places? If not, to help you nail down the direction you should go FOR SURE, here is the historical track data of all hurricanes since 1965...










Might help you narrow down your choices so you're sure to get this right. As of now, in relation to this particular storm, I'm staying put in the hypothetical Tortola.

Who else wants to play?


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

They're coming...










Anybody "outrunning" yet? Which of the listed starting areas did you pick above?

Martinique
Tortola
Turks & Caicos
Miami
Charleston

And where are you headed - and why?

No takers?


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

smackdaddy said:


> They're coming...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You don't out run a hurricane... If your boat is in the Leewards, the VI you sail south to avoid the typical paths. Boats in these regions can move south out of harm's way in a 2 day sail.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

Only the Bounty outruns or try's to out think a hurricane with logic and reasoning. Look where that got them .

Respect that they are unpredictable and as Sander says ..... go south


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Not sure why it is always said to OUT RUN a hurricane. You should be long gone before it even forms. Up here in the North we do not wait for Nov to prep our boats. It's done well before the first frost. Yes, we could leave them in the water and they might survive, but why would you take that chance just because it is a lot of work and costs a little money. Common sense says that for Blizzard season prep the boat for winter or go south.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

This is a total nobrainer for anyone in the Eastern Caribbean. GO SOUTH. 

Even a 4 ktsb leaving Tortola should make it to safety. IE Martinique. 

The people who left the USVI the BVI and St Marten before Irma still have their boats. Almost all of those who elected to stay lost theirs.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Those are all generalities (except for TQA's which is a bit more specific).

*When exactly* do you leave from your *selected area* in the above scenario *and where exactly do you go*? Of course "sailing south" is a good call in general - just as is "not being in the box in the first place". But those are also huge generalities. For example, sail south from where? Miami? Charleston? That doesn't sound very smart based on what we're seeing right now. And if you are in the Eastern Carib - have you already left? Or are you still watching and waiting.

To up the ante a bit, let's say your boat is at a marina/mooring where you typically keep it - and you have every day life going on. In other words, you're not just at anchor while out cruising which gives you far more flexibility (even though that's okay too for this game if you want to make it easier). Now make your decision.

Again, as of this moment, in my spot in hypothetical Tortola at a marina, I'm not going anywhere yet.

So to play this game, you have to be very specific. Anyone can be "generally right" and can claim they're awesome in hindsight - but put some skin in the game.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Stakes are being raised. Looks like there will likely be two storms coming now...










That system 1 now has a 90% chance of becoming a cyclone. And it's 1100 miles east of the Windwards with expected wataches/warnings to come for the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. So if you've "sailed south", you're heading into its currently projected path.

For now, I'm still waiting and watching in Tortola. You?


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## Minnesail (Feb 19, 2013)

OK, I'll bite. I'm living aboard my Catalina 22 in Key West. I belong to an obscure sect of Mennonites that doesn't believe in trailers, so I can't bring my boat ashore. I'll head south tomorrow morning.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Do Mennonites sail? And, if so, where do they keep their horses on board? I mean, you definitely can't have an engine.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Hypothetical totally misses the point. Thoughtful decision is to be north of 40 or in Trinidad or Blas/panama before hurricane season even starts. Tortola doesn't exist btw.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

outbound said:


> Hypothetical totally misses the point. Thoughtful decision is to be north of 40 or in Trinidad or Blas/panama before hurricane season even starts.


In the context of what we're talking about - sure it does. Does every boat in Miami or Charleston move to Boston? Again the context here is if a hurricane is threatening your area what action do you take? If you're already in Yarmouth NS, or Rio, then no this game is not for you. But you're being there certainly doesn't affect/miss the point of this exercise.



outbound said:


> Tortola doesn't exist btw.


Okay.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

SE USA is a crap shoot ... Canes generally move north as the move west... or sometimes make a turn and head out to sea not reaching USA.

The Caribean thru the Bahamas and Turcs and Caicos and maybe even south Florida could consider sailing the boats south in the Hurricane season. Cruisers who live aboard can and should do this. Residents who LIVE and keep a boat in a marina or maybe mooring pray and few will move their boat because most are not set up to sail across the Gulf of Mexico on one run to say Venezuela or the ABCs... Trinidad become an upwind sail the further West you start from. So the Leeward Island boats have a pretty easy reach sailing out of the way of the hurricanes. The further west you are the harder it would be to sail out of the way... especially if the boat is not ready for a ocean passage.

We saw what Irma did as it went right over the northern Caribbean Islands and then turned north do wreck Fla.

If you can't get out of the way... you should try to un step, haul and have the keel blocked with the keel burried. This is obviously not possible for all the recreational sailboats because there are not enough marinas which can do this.... people don't store boats down there as they do up north where most of the boats come out of the water and into boat yards for the winter.

Do people take their boat out for the hurricane season and get it unstepped and the keel buried? No... they hunker down and hope for the best.

I cruised for about 4 years in the Caribbean but sailed north in the summer... which is what most of the yachts do or sail down island.

Or so it seems.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

That leading system is now up to 80 percent chance, 1000 miles out and moving west at 20 mph.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Was told by crew for upcoming November passage to Antigua ARC 1500 is going to nanny key. So smackie owe you an apology. Tortola does exist. Wonder how crew are getting home. Also heard through the grapevine st. Thomas is not expected to service commercial flights for 3-4months. Short hops out of Beef I. were always mucho $$$ wonder when they're going to open and what they will charge. 
In prior post expressed my heart felt concerns for sailors solely based in US southeast. Think upcoming years will be stressful. Totally agree with Sandero. It's been amazing how many cruising friends from Caribbean winters I meet during New England summers. Seems normative behavior is Caribbean in winter somewhere else during hurricane season. See all the big powerboats being craned on to dockwise leaving USVI in the spring heading to the med.
No smack the premise is not viable. You make your decision before hurricane season. Those stuck due to time constraints, family obligations, or financial issues need to decide if they can pay for sufficient insurance or absorb a total loss or have an ironclad storm haul arranged in advance. For those who are not limited and have the time to move the rational decision is to leave BEFORE the hurricane season arrives.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Well, remember, Capta said he's dealt with 50 tropical cyclonic storms over his career. So north of 40 is obviously not on every sailor's agenda. And I also personally won't be moving my own boat from Florida to Nantucket and back...along with hundreds of thousands of other boats down here. So, yes, the premise is perfectly viable. Maybe not for you - but for many, many more it is. Especially those who think this is easy...in hindsight or "in general".

So, back to it, at what point do we take action based on what we're seeing with these approaching systems? Right now in my hypothetical Tortola, I'm getting nervous - but I haven't yet moved. I have no idea where to go.

Anyone else?


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## contrarian (Sep 14, 2011)

I make the call when the storm is 5 days out and move outside the projected cone as far to the west as I can get within 48 hours which is 250 mile or so and hope the models are fairly tightly grouped at that point. This means I have to have the boat prepped at 7 days out. Getting my storm anchor set up on the boat kills a complete day and I'm just now getting the boat put back together from Irma and now you're saying 
pony up again cowboy and get ready for another ride?:ship-captain:


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## alysonsfather (Sep 16, 2017)

This is worth exactly what you're paying for it...

I will say "survived" is a relative term. Lot's of people didn't. They're still finding bodies. And the Houston metro stretches all the way to the Gulf. "Houston" is huge. From Galveston, north to Humble, from west of Katy to Beaumont is considered "Houston metro". You can drive 2 hours, and still be considered "In the metro". My house is full of refugees who've lost everything. Including my mom, who is undergoing treatment at M.D. Anderson for cancer. A 30 minute drive was taking 2hrs until the easing started this week. She lives/lived 60 miles southwest of Houston in a little County called Wharton. It was completely underwater and fatalities there aren't counted. Rockport was completely destroyed. As were many other communities that won't get any news coverage. There are neighborhoods here that will NEVER recover. Families won't get their loved ones back.

This is my 5th hurricane in the last decade or so. (Katrina, Rita, Ike, Norman ((A fast forming Cat 1 that most don't remember)) and now Harvey. I tried to warn everyone what it was going to do. Those that had been through Ike, knew. But there are over a million new residents here since then, that had never experienced a hurricane. There are 10k people a month moving here... They had NO clue. I can say without question, the worst I've ever experienced was Frederick, on the USS Christobal, from New Orleans to Panama. 100' waves were not "rouge". The captain was a "Salty Dog" for sure, and when he came by with a worried look, we knew it was going to be bad. I don't want to be in so much as a thunderstorm on the water... EVER!!! 

Hellosailor, you are soooo correct in your advice. I will second the GTFO!!! Immediately. Man has NEVER built anything Mother Nature couldn't rip apart in seconds. After Katrina/Rita/Ike, all these structures are built to the CAT3 code. Pfft... You don't have to look to hard to see the damage to those structures now destroyed. Recovery, if there is such a thing, will take years at the minimum. 

I was part of the "Cajun Navy" before I sold my boat and moved here but, the people of rural Louisiana and Texas are resilient and take care of our own, long before the government responds. It is just my opinion but, having seen the Red Cross in action, they're a waste of resources. They are a government agency, in every sense of the word. You're much better off giving your money to local churches and food banks and forego paying their CEO's 6 figure salary. HEB foods will have my business forever. They have done SO much for Houston's people, it can't be measured. And it's A PRIVATELY OWNED company. 

Just my $0.02

Please be safe and God bless us all.


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## Indevolatile (Nov 3, 2006)

smackdaddy said:


> Okay, let's play the game...
> 
> You're in Martinique or Tortola or Turks & Caicos or Miami or Charleston - do you leave yet? Which way do you go? And how far will have to go to be sure you're out of its way?


Alrighty, I'll bite. I'll start with Miami

Do you leave yet? - Not yet. I'll wait for the five-day forecast.

Which way do you go? - Depends on the forecasted track.

How far will have to go to be sure you're out of its way? - According to wikipedia, the average diameter of hurricane force winds is 100mi. The average diameter of tropical storm force winds is 300-400mi. So if it's set to hit you dead-on, you should be able to travel 200mi perpendicular to the path to get below 40-knot wind speeds. In actuality, I'm going to go as far as I can get in those 5 days. Lets say 400mi.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Indevolatile said:


> Alrighty, I'll bite. I'll start with Miami
> 
> Do you leave yet? - Not yet. I'll wait for the five-day forecast.
> 
> ...


Well if I was in the area from Martinique to the USVI I would be leaving this Saturday morning and heading South. Weather guru Chris Parker thinks there is a good chance that the system due to hit on MONDAY may develop into a major hurricane we are talking cat 33 or 4.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Okay, so there is the latest update....










#15 has a 100% chance now and here is the projected path...










So, being in my hypothetical Tortola (not today's version, but before) I'm definitely taking action. We're going to get hit at some level - though currently not shown to be winds above 110 mph. It looks like that, to be safe, I have until Tuesday to have the boat where ever I'm going to have it.

Now, let's talk a couple of scenarios here...

1. My boat is at the marina, I don't live on it - and have a job, etc. And can't just drop and get away easily.

-In this case, at this point, I'm probably going to haul out and strip her today or tomorrow. I'll add straps and hope for the best. As mentioned above, this thing can possibly blow up into a Cat 3 - though that's not yet showing in NOAAs predictions, so this is definitely a gamble. The issue is, if I run south based on this current track - just to save the boat in this particular scenario - where do I go and what do I do?

Aruba, Grenada, Curacao look like safe options. And it looks like Lee behind this system is currently projected to weaken and head north. So it's a good option.

But again, realistically, let's look at that. That's going to be a ~400 mile run. This means that, if I leave tonight, I'll arrive at one of these destinations just as the hurricane is passing over Tortola and I'll probably hit some heavy weather along the way. Then, realistically I should probably head right back that way if I'm unable to take another week or so off from work. So this has been an 8-9 day non-stop run. Sure it's the plan that is "most certain" and "most seamanlike" - but in this scenario, I would probably opt to gamble and put the boat on the hard - or at least run it to a hurricane hole. It will definitely get hit, but this gamble is why I pay so much in insurance.

2. I live on the boat but am tied to a job or other responsibilities...

I would haul the boat as mentioned above - or if this wasn't possible I'd try to get her into a hurricane hole and, based on what we saw in the Irma imagery for those boats that survived, anchor her and get her up against the mangroves... and then head to a hotel.

3. I live on the boat and am cruising...

Easy call. I'd head to Aruba or Curacao this afternoon. I have no ties, no schedule, so no problem.

So, again, a lot of how easy or hard this is depends a lot on your circumstances. And the hurricane could always very easily change directions as we all know. It's never a cut-and-dried call. I'll either get lucky in the above choices, including heading south, or I won't.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Another update...now Maria is a tropical storm and is expected to become a major hurricane right over Tortola...










And she's looking like she will hit Cat 3-4...










You'll also see that the track has pushed a bit further south, along with the watches. So Grenada is out, and it's looking like Aruba and/or Curacao if you're running. But the spaghetti is still crazy...










My above Tortaola scenarios still hold. At this point Tortola is likely getting hit. So, I'm now in "hope" mode if I've stored the boat. If I've started south this afternoon, I'm getting a little concerned with that southward shift. Even if she comes down to the southern end of that cone I could be in serious trouble on my "seamanlike" way to Aruba.

How about you guys that ran south? Are you in trouble yet.


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## Skipper Dan (Mar 31, 2017)

Columbia, Panama and the Amazon still look good. Although ND is getting colder I can hold out until Dec.


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## Indevolatile (Nov 3, 2006)

If I were anywhere in the DR or Puerto Rico at this point, I'd likely be starting south, possibly for Aruba. In Miami, I'd wait a few more days to see how things pan out.


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## Rocky Mountain Breeze (Mar 30, 2015)

Risk aversion is similar to perpetual motion; it is impossible to attain. I grew up in Iowa and survived one major and one minor tornado before I left the area. There are prudent measures you can take to increase your chances of survival but it boils down to chance and judgement. Here at the foot of the mountains, we are pummeled by hail and blizzards (3' or so of snowfall accompanied by 40+ mph winds) which happen on a somewhat regular basis. We have not had the 12 year hiatus that the US has enjoyed on major hurricanes. My thought is to embrace life, don't be stupid, and have good insurance. It makes no difference where you live; if you live in fear of nature you shall never enjoy life.


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## Petertherock (Aug 20, 2017)

Skipper Dan said:


> Not sure why it is always said to OUT RUN a hurricane. You should be long gone before it even forms. Up here in the North we do not wait for Nov to prep our boats. It's done well before the first frost. Yes, we could leave them in the water and they might survive, but why would you take that chance just because it is a lot of work and costs a little money. Common sense says that for Blizzard season prep the boat for winter or go south.


There are people here in Maine that keep boats in the water all winter and liveaboard in cold and blizzards and all.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

smackdaddy said:


> Easy call. I'd head to *Aruba or Curacao* this afternoon. I have no ties, no schedule, so no problem.


I'm confused why you keep mentioning Aruba and Curacao as an escape from a Windward or Leeward Islands storm.
The ABC's are 500 miles from Grenada and more from any other Island. That's *days* of sailing, staying well off the Venezuelan coast and well clear of Isla de Margarita. And to get back to the Windwards or eastern Leewards is akin to sailing from Hawaii to Frisco: a real female dog.
On the other hand, Trinidad is 80 easy miles (either way) south of Grenada. It is a very friendly and welcoming island, if you follow *their* rules. It is also rather inexpensive compared to the rest of the Antilles, which means that should one get stuck there, it won't break the bank.
Sure Chaguaramas isn't the cleanest or most pleasant anchorage, but there's a lot of interesting traffic and it is not a place frequented by hurricanes or even strong squalls. 
It just seems silly to sail 500 miles to get to one of the most expensive destinations in the Caribbean, if not the world, and have to sail almost twice that to get back to the eastern Antilles, when there is such a perfect alternative so much closer, which is easier and much safer to get to.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

My primary concern in this exercise is to get out of Maria's way. You're talking about cost and inconvenience. That doesn't matter to me right now.

Even so, I think you're confused. Remember, I said my hypothetical port was *Tortola* - not Grenada. If I started out toward Trinidad from Tortola - I'd be making a bad move based on the current projected track. On the other hand, if I were in Grenada right now looking at this storm, I wouldn't be too worried yet and probably not headed to Trinidad...and yes, it would be silly to sail to Aruba from there.

So, would you be headed to Trinidad from Grenada (if that's your choice in this exercise) about now based on this above track?

What would you do if you were in Tortola, or even Miami about now?


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

Hauling out is not an option for every sail boat down there. If you are an absent owner you are way down on the list. Chances are you won't even get hauled out. Depending on someone else to protect your property is rather iffy when they are making their own storm preparations. If you can't get down to the boat... and this is not easily done because of schedules and maybe job commitment. I would think most manager/bosses would give someone time off to protect their valuable assets if a storm was coming. Many jobs you simply take a LOA or use vacation time.

Further consider that in the islands they storage on land capacity is much less than the moored, docked and anchored boats around these islands. Local commercial interests will grab the on land storage space. No ifs ands or buts.

Everyone has "ties" and responsibilities.... even people who live on boats. When a relative goes ill or dies or gets married they usually will fly home. Leaving a boat far off unattended essentially is a fairly risking and can be irresponsible thing. An unoccupied boat is an easy target for vandalism... and then things like lines and leaks and the bilge and electrics need to be watched. It's kind of like leaving a Ferrari in public lot for months on end. No one with that car would do it.

Hopefully you can make 100 miles a day and sail south perpendicular to the CL of the prediction cone. You make the call based on a 5 day prediction. THAT is the last moment to decide. It's simple math Indevolatile did in the post above.

In southern NE I have hauled out when a storm was on its way. You need to do that early because the yards are working full time getting boats out and their regular customers come first. I was forced to ride out Sandy because the yard I stored out was too busy with the summer slip customers who came first in line. There were very very few boats in the harbor and several were on the shore having chafed their lines... Shiva dragged about 700 or more feet but was OK. She was prepped and had a bow eye free of chafe for a shorter main storm line... but the bow eye wore and parted leaving the two main mooring lines which did not chafe. I was of course very lucky.

If a cane is coming I would head to a large ship yard across the Sound and get hauled. It's a 4 hrs trip at most.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Maria is forecast to go over the southern tip of Guadeloupe. Some small deviation is possible but nothing major. If I was in Guadeloupe St Croix, the BVI or USVI I would be beating feet South. 

Anybody South of Guadeloupe and in an anchorage exposed to the West needs to plan for some westerly winds and swells. 

Grenada would be fine as a safe destination, we might get some light westerlies Monday pm. 

The ABCs are also a safe destination but getting back to the Eastern Carib is a royal PITA.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

smackdaddy said:


> My primary concern in this exercise is to get out of Maria's way. You're talking about cost and inconvenience. That doesn't matter to me right now.
> 
> Even so, I think you're confused. Remember, I said my hypothetical port was *Tortola* - not Grenada. If I started out toward Trinidad from Tortola - I'd be making a bad move based on the current projected track. On the other hand, if I were in Grenada right now looking at this storm, I wouldn't be too worried yet and probably not headed to Trinidad...and yes, it would be silly to sail to Aruba from there.
> 
> ...


I wouldn't be in the VI right now, especially after Irma, but I wouldn't have been there for Irma in the first place. There are plenty of places to stick a boat in the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area that would be reasonably safe. Leaving that area for somewhere with fewer good places would be foolish.
We had three choices where we were going to do the work we are presently doing here in Trinidad, this hurricane season. San Juan was a very good option, but St Martin would have been our choice if the company we were discussing the job with hadn't been so unprofessional. Fortunately, we chose Trinidad.
I still maintain that the ABC's are not nearly as good a destination as Trinidad, mainly because of the difficulty of returning to the eastern Antilles. You might not be considering the costs now, but if you could throw in the best labor at the cheapest cost and the most reasonable haul outs anywhere this side of the DR, why would you not take advantage of your time there?
Nobody in their right mind would sail back to a hurricane ravaged island after a storm, so even if you left Tortola, it would be unlikely you would or could return. They certainly do not welcome outsiders after the sort of catastrophe that Tortola has just had. They just do not need any more mouths to feed or 'disaster' tourists. They have enough problems on their plate supplying food, water, medical supplies and shelter to their own people.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

capta said:


> I wouldn't be in the VI right now, especially after Irma, but I wouldn't have been there for Irma in the first place....
> 
> We had three choices where we were going to do the work we are presently doing here in Trinidad, this hurricane season. San Juan was a very good option, but St Martin would have been our choice...


So basically you *would* have been there for Irma. You got lucky. It's not always sober calculation and good decision making. Many times it's luck. And that's been my point of this exercise.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

smackdaddy said:


> So basically you *would* have been there for Irma. You got lucky. It's not always sober calculation and good decision making. Many times it's luck. And that's been my point of this exercise.


No, I absolutely would *NOT* have been in StM or the VI for Irma, period! The south coast of PR was a really good option. Even a hundred miles south of either place hove to at sea would have been safer.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

capta said:


> No, I absolutely would *NOT* have been in StM or the VI for Irma, period! The south coast of PR was a really good option. Even a hundred miles south of either place hove to at sea would have been safer.


Well that's exactly what I'm pointing out with this exercise. In retrospect those are very easy calls to make. But as you said, you almost had your boat in St. Martin - during peak hurricane season - to do the work you're doing now in Trinidad. Had that been the case you would have had to "outrun" Irma - maybe with a boat that was torn up and in the middle of projects. Irma certainly slammed St. Martin every bit as much as she did the VIs...










As many experienced sailors have said in this thread, the most prudent move (and some say the ONLY move) is to not be anywhere near "the box" during hurricane season. But as you illustrate, that's not always realistic. So, in those cases, it comes down to "running" and/or "hoping" if a storm is coming. Hence the exercise...

I assume that had you run to the south coast of PR for Irma as you say, you'd definitely be running again with Maria coming in - and it wouldn't be back to St. Martin. So where would you go now? Would you still do Trinidad from PR with the current forecast track? Or would you head north and hope for an early turn - then keep going north of 40 to play it safe? Or somewhere else?


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

smackdaddy said:


> Well that's exactly what I'm pointing out with this exercise. In retrospect those are very easy calls to make. But as you said, you almost had your boat in St. Martin - during peak hurricane season - to do the work you're doing now in Trinidad. Had that been the case you would have had to "outrun" Irma - maybe with a boat that was torn up and in the middle of projects. Irma certainly slammed St. Martin every bit as much as she did the VIs...
> As many experienced sailors have said in this thread, the most prudent move (and some say the ONLY move) is to not be anywhere near "the box" during hurricane season. But as you illustrate, that's not always realistic. So, in those cases, it comes down to "running" and/or "hoping" if a storm is coming. Hence the exercise...
> I assume that had you run to the south coast of PR for Irma as you say, you'd definitely be running again with Maria coming in - and it wouldn't be back to St. Martin. So where would you go now? Would you still do Trinidad from PR with the current forecast track? Or would you head north and hope for an early turn - then keep going north of 40 to play it safe? Or somewhere else?


First off, we are rebuilding our generator and reworking our davits, neither of which prohibit Skipping Stone from sailing.
I wasn't paying any more than casual attention to Irma (after I determined it could not affect us here) until a friend in the BVI asked for advice. Since I had not been tracking the storm for at least 3 days prior to her request, I could not offer any informed advice other than to say she should evacuate with her newborn.
However, that got me interested so I began watching Irma. It quickly became apparent that Irma would not migrate south appreciably, making the south coast of PR a viable option for those in the VI, and an even better one was to just sail 100 miles south into the sea. Running south from St M beyond Antigua and Guadeloupe was simply the only correct move this time. As reports of the devastation began coming in, it was apparent that there would have been no possibility of continuing the work in St M and little in PR so, ss winds were light southerlies throughout the storm, out in the Caribbean Sea, I probably would have begun sailing south east anyway. 
Chances are, I probably would have headed for Trinidad from either place to finish the work, leaving us well clear of the storms presently of interest.
I may have said it poorly in my post, so you should understand that we were well aware that this was forecast to be a very active hurricane season and the only intelligent action really, was to go to Trinidad. That was the determining factor in the choice we made, not luck. Still, I am thankful the guys in St M were such jerks, taking St M off the table well before June first.
Any picture of the boats piled like cordwood in St M and the VI should be ample evidence that leaving one's hurricane planning to luck is not a good policy, don't you think? It also seems quite apparent that the bareboat companies in the BVI took a rather cavalier attitude to a cat 4 or 5 storm headed their way. Companies farther south and in the Grenadines were already moving boats to better shelter or hauling them out as the season was winding down, well before June 1.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

capta said:


> I may have said it poorly in my post, so you should understand that we were well aware that this was forecast to be a very active hurricane season and the only intelligent action really, was to go to Trinidad. That was the determining factor in the choice we made, not luck.


That didn't come across in your earlier statement...



capta said:


> We had three choices where we were going to do the work we are presently doing here in Trinidad, this hurricane season. San Juan was a very good option, *but St Martin would have been our choice if the company we were discussing the job with hadn't been so unprofessional. Fortunately, we chose Trinidad.*


And I may be missing something, but I'm not sure why you think Puerto Rico was a good option for Irma at that point. Here is her track on Sunday, showing her coming straight up for PR as a Cat 4-5...










This is showing her projection a bit north of PR, but you remember how big Irma was. So this is when you'd have to make your go-call to leave the VIs and head to PR.

But then, as you're making that sail, we have this on Tuesday...










Now you can see that Irma has shifted SOUTH and PR is under a major hurricane *warning*. *Category 5*. NO WAY in *any* of these scenarios would I think ANY coast of PR would be a good place to be if I were in the VI.

In any case, like I said, it's always easy to make these calls after the fact. But as you can see, it's never easy in thick of it. You were definitely fortunate as you say.

Now, back to the exercise, as you can see, Maria has shifted south...










So, in my scenarios where I left the boat in Tortola, I'm in big trouble. I'll be in her teeth. And all I can do is hope that she's a weak Cat 3 and my boat is securely strapped down on land. But in the scenario where I've sailed south toward Aruba I'm getting nervous and hoping she doesn't shift south any more than this. Because I'm completely exposed out there. If she dips, I'll be dead.

Who else is making moves? What about you guys in Miami?


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

PS - If these more southerly GFS models turn out to be correct, then I made good call hauling and storing the boat in Tortola. On the other hand, I'm probably a dead man if I chose to sail south like some thought was the no-brainer.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Trinidad is out of the zone. Granada used to be considered safe as well but for many no longer. What I see is 
people on trawlers start their great loop travels late May get out of zone.
Sailboats head north or south to get out of the zone. Some time their cruise to Europe so to miss cyclonic season. One part of first summer along upper eastern US seaboard. Next year trip back to Caribbean timed to miss late cyclonic systems coming off Africa. Big >60' boats go to Maine, Newport or the med. 
If I was bound by land based responsibilities to southeastern US I'd own a nice Regulator with a trailer and pick up, a cute 12 1/2 to day sail and charter out of Split or Greece. But I wouldn't leave a cruising sailboat in the water in the SE US or Caribbean except in Trinidad. 
See what you're trying to get at smack. Just don't see many getting potentially trapped by the scenario you propose.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

outbound said:


> Trinidad is out of the zone. Granada used to be considered safe as well but for many no longer. What I see is
> people on trawlers start their great loop travels late May get out of zone.
> Sailboats head north or south to get out of the zone. Some time their cruise to Europe so to miss cyclonic season. One part of first summer along upper eastern US seaboard. Next year trip back to Caribbean timed to miss late cyclonic systems coming off Africa. Big >60' boats go to Maine, Newport or the med.
> If I was bound by land based responsibilities to southeastern US I'd own a nice Regulator with a trailer and pick up, a cute 12 1/2 to day sail and charter out of Split or Greece. But I wouldn't leave a cruising sailboat in the water in the SE US or Caribbean except in Trinidad.
> See what you're trying to get at smack. Just don't see many getting potentially trapped by the scenario you propose.


This is the conventional wisdom and practice. If you've lived on a cruising boat down in the islands this is common knowledge.

If you are an absentee owner of a boat down there... it would be advisable to do the same and not wait til the last minute. You need to move it out of the historical storm tracks in the beginning of the hurricane season. If you do that odds are not in the game. But you need to be or get down there or hire a crew to move the boat.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Smack there is no CG throughout most of the Caribbean. The little SAR there is is often volunteer. Often their range is very limited.SAR is primarily aimed at local fishermen and the charter crowd. There is very little commercial traffic in the heart of the center of the Caribbean Sea. Many think of their voyages as in helicopter range v. out of range. Many places there is no helicopter. 
Periodically a storm will not turn north or turn north after crossing the rim of islands. 
In this part of the world you can not count on deploying the epirb and having someone show up right away. 
Given above SanderO is right. Conclusion is get out of the zone before the season. Otherwise you get to make a mistake once. Depending on a weather router is foolish in this setting. Particularly with the violence of the recent crop of storms and with some doing loop de loops before deciding where they will go.
Once you leave theoretical discussion and enter the real world the choice is clear.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

You guys are both are from the northeast. You don't seem to understand that there are hundreds of thousands of boats (or more - who knows?) "in the zone" as we speak. Yes, even during one of the most active hurricane seasons ever (which we all knew to be the probability from ample forecasts).

From Charleston south to Trinidad there are very, very few of these boats that will be moving north (otherwise you'd have no room at your marinas). Sure a few of the bigger ones as you've said earlier, Out - but let's be realistic here.

It's very easy for you and Sander to wax on about getting out of the zone...you already *live* pretty much out of the zone. But because of this, your unequivocal views simply have no skin in the game...and don't really apply here.

This exercise is directed toward those boats *in this zone* - not yours near 40. So you guys don't have to play, but your viewpoints don't really count either. They're just platitudes in terms of this game. Unless, that is, you both have already moved your boats to Boston - or the Bay of Fundy - to be well out of the zone. Have you guys done that? I'm sure you have. It's the only safe thing to do.

I don't think anyone with a boat in Florida thinks that that is the safest place in the world for a boat. We all know it's a calculated risk. But we're simply not going to move our boats to the Bay of Fundy for the hurricane season. It's not going to happen. So we gamble (and have insurance). And that's the point of this exercise...how much can you really *calculate* when taking this gamble in the path of the hurricane? How informed a decision can you really make?

You have Uma dude bragging about riding out Matthew on a big Mantus. But in reality, he was very far away from Matthew in a very sheltered anchorage. Apart from the good call on the anchor and anchorage, it was purely luck that got him through that. Matthew didn't come at him when it very well could have. And at that point he was simply a sitting duck. Yet, I don't think he really knows that. He seems to think he can outsmart and ride out a Cat 4 hurricane on his Mantus. And that's dangerous.

Capta, a FAR more experienced skipper than Uma dude, and one who said he's faced 50 hurricanes probably because he makes his living in the zone, almost had his boat in St. Martin during a Cat 5. I, and many others, had our boats in SW Florida for a Cat 3-4. That's just the reality of boating/living in the tropics.

Thus far I haven't seen any stories of wizened sailboat skippers bravely "outrunning" one of these storms successfully. In fact, very few even want to play this game. The reason for that is obvious - the odds are horrible. You look foolish when you get it wrong. And you will very often get it wrong if you really are trying to dodge the storm. It simply comes down to pure luck. That's the lesson of this game.

When you DO get caught, which you will, if you've done at least a little preparation, you might escape with your boat, and your life if you're dense enough to be on it, when the storm takes a turn you didn't expect and it all blows up around you.

As for the game and my "calculations", unless I went south several days ago, I'm going to get murdered in that mythical Tortola...










Of course, she could still easily dip south. In that case, I'd be dead if I'm at sea. So, I'm a sitting duck at this point....just like Uma dude. It's not up to me anymore. And I won't be bragging about how awesome I am if I survive it.

Even so, I'm still not moving my boat to the Bay of Fundy. I'll just make sure I pay my premiums.

PS - In real life, I'm very happy Maria is pushing east. I really don't want to have our boat in the Ft. Myers area to have to deal with another major hurricane. We've already gotten lucky once. I'm thankful for that.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

One point I'd like to make about trying to outrun a tropical cyclonic storm is that the only way to get away from a storm, once you are in the system, is to beat! The closer to the wind you can point, the faster you will clear the system. If you run you will sail directly into the heart of the storm. So, before considering this tactic, be sure you *and* your boat are up to a long, very hard beat.
In the Indian Ocean it was ten days beating in 40 to 50 knots of wind, before we got free of the system.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Monday morning Maria is now a Cat 3 Chris Parker is awarded an official " I told you so" Track has shifted south a tad and it looks like Dominica is going to be the target for the eye.

Dominica is one of the least developed islands in the Caribbean with a fairly shaky infrastructure. In the last storm to hit Dominica [ TS Erika 205 ] almost all the bridges were destroyed and electricity and water systems were badly damaged. Dominica will need a LOT of help to get back on it's feet.

It gets worse. Most of the models have it attaining cat 4 status before it hits St Johns in the USVI then the NE of Puerto Rico. Fema has called for an evacuation of St Johns.

Cruiser friends are anchored in Trois Islet in Martinique and have been told by local authorities to take shelter ashore. They have stripped the boat and laid two anchors. I also have friends in Cul de Sac de Marin on the south end of Martinique and they are pretty worried. The problem is that the anchorage is so large that big waves can develop especially in strong westerlies which are what is forecast. The other problem is that there are several hundred boats at anchor or on moorings most of which DO NOT have sails and canvas stripped off.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

TQA said:


> Monday morning Maria is now a Cat 3 Chris Parker is awarded an official " I told you so" Track has shifted south a tad and it looks like Dominica is going to be the target for the eye.
> 
> Dominica is one of the least developed islands in the Caribbean with a fairly shaky infrastructure. In the last storm to hit Dominica [ TS Erika 205 ] almost all the bridges were destroyed and electricity and water systems were badly damaged. Dominica will need a LOT of help to get back on it's feet.
> 
> ...


Yeah, the mooring thing is the biggest "fool's errand" play in these situations. When I was first boat shopping, I came very, very close to buying a Beneteau First 435. It was in the BVIs *and came with its own mooring there*. Nice boat in paradise and NO moorage fees? Sounded like the most ideal set-up I could imagine.

Before I made a move, she ended up on the beach after a hurricane (might have actually been that one that Mark rode out). Then I understood the downside.


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## GeorgeB (Dec 30, 2004)

How does the insurance angle work in the Carib for hurricanes? Out here in the Pacific, my insurance works for everything while here in the USA. But it does not cover the boat for named storms south of Turtle Bay – Guymas during hurricane season. When I delivered a friend’s boat to the Carib, we put it on the hard in a hurricane hole in Grenada to wait out the hurricane season down there (again, due to his insurer’s requirements)


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

GeorgeB said:


> How does the insurance angle work in the Carib for hurricanes? Out here in the Pacific, my insurance works for everything while here in the USA. But it does not cover the boat for named storms south of Turtle Bay - Guymas during hurricane season. When I delivered a friend's boat to the Carib, we put it on the hard in a hurricane hole in Grenada to wait out the hurricane season down there (again, due to his insurer's requirements)


As always it depends on the Company. But Pantaenius an insurance company that took a big hit when Ivan clobbered Grenada decided that in future to avoid having all it's eggs in one island they would allow people to sail anywhere they wanted. They also reduce the payout in the event of a named storm to 75% [? ]

Other companies still insist that you must be ashore with the mast down or outside the hurricane 'belt'.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

SanderO and Outbound - are you guys hauling your boats or taking them north for Jose?


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

I doubt Outbound is "making sure his insurance is paid and tying it up real good hoping for the best". There will always be thousands of yachts in a storms path but Outbound wont be one of them. I may fly down to Jamaica to have a beer with him.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Wow Maria is now a cat 5 as it passes over Dominica. 

Really not good.


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## mbianka (Sep 19, 2014)

smackdaddy said:


> SanderO and Outbound - are you guys hauling your boats or taking them north for Jose?


I'm stuck in Washington DC my boat is on North Shore of Long Island. Luckily my sail is already off. Planned to pull it next week anyway to avoid Nor'easters of October. Called the boatyard this afternoon and they don't seem too concerned. They have not pulled any boats because of the storm. Latest track shows Tropical Storm watch has moved even further east so we may have dodged a bullet from Jose.


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## Indevolatile (Nov 3, 2006)

capta said:


> One point I'd like to make about trying to outrun a tropical cyclonic storm is that the only way to get away from a storm, once you are in the system, is to beat! The closer to the wind you can point, the faster you will clear the system. If you run you will sail directly into the heart of the storm. So, before considering this tactic, be sure you *and* your boat are up to a long, very hard beat.
> In the Indian Ocean it was ten days beating in 40 to 50 knots of wind, before we got free of the system.


I ran across this .pdf over on another forum. Not sure what book it's from, but it looks interesting. http://setsail.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Hurricane_avoidance.pdf


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

I noticed things got very quiet when the rubber meets the road....

Okay - so to wrap this thread up once and for all - along with the silly idea of outrunning/outthinking/outskippering a hurricane - I think it's very clear now that it ain't gonna happen. Over on SA a buddy had these "true facts" from Irma...



> BTW gentle readers, I know of five boats which tried to outrun the storm. Two had to be rescued by the CG, one got stuck at the Marquesas, and two haven't been heard from AFAIK. I am becoming more convinced that one cannot outrun a hurricane.


So, your choices are - move your boat to the Bay of Fundy from June to January and feel superior to the southerners. Or for the hundreds and hundreds of thousands of boats like ours who won't be doing that, make sure your premiums are paid, do everything you can to secure her, go someplace safe, and hope for the best. Don't listen to the braggadocios who think they know what they're doing...even if they claim to be all that. To them I say...










PS - My buddy finally heard from the other two who ended up in Mexico after a very nasty trip.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

While working as the First Mate on a Santa Cruz 70 based in New England if a hurricane threatened us we would run to Somes Sound near Southwest Harbor in Maine. The only natural fijord on the East Coast with enough cold water south of it to knock the steam out of a big one. Only a 27 hour run even from Newport. You dont roll the dice trying to ride out the middle of a hurricane in a carbon eggshell. Somes Sound always was a great place to be.


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## Rocky Mountain Breeze (Mar 30, 2015)

As for sheltering in the Caribbean, are the Cayman's a likely spot? None of the current crop of hurricanes have come close to there.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Caymans have been hit but not as often as the Windwards. Safer to run to the ABCs as it is an easier sail back after the crap has blown through.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Rocky Mountain Breeze said:


> As for sheltering in the Caribbean, are the Cayman's a likely spot? None of the current crop of hurricanes have come close to there.


Earlier in the season (before systems start more regularly pushing down from the north to provide steerage north and east like we're seeing now with Maria and Jose) Caymans is as likely to get hit as any. So, it's as safe as the VIs, Barbuda, Dominica, Puerto Rico, etc.

Point being, it's always a crap shoot. So you just have to be comfortable with that.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

I've got Reeds Maritime Meteorology open in front of me, chapter 17 is titled "Avoidance of the Worst Effects of a TRS". The chapter is basically dedicated to strategies to reposition a vessel or alter the vessels route to mitigate the impact of a TRS, including hurricanes.

I would say if Reeds dedicates a chapter to repositioning prior to and during a TRS, then there must be some validity to it.

No where does Reeds refer to "outrunning" a hurricane, but I'm not sure I've seen any one else refer to that either, except for the folks arguing against it.


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## hpeer (May 14, 2005)

Anyone here ever read Typhoon by Conrad?


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

> along with the silly idea of outrunning/outthinking/outskippering a hurricane - I think it's very clear now that it ain't gonna happen. Over on SA a buddy had these "true facts" from Irma...


Hmm the reality is that is was possible to 'outrun' both Irma and Maria.

Quite a number of boats left the USVI BVI St Marten and Antigua 2 or 3 days before Irma hit. They sailed South and were outside the danger area when Irma hit. There have been concerns raised about two boats that left and have not checked in yet but not everybody who raises concerns cancels the alert when they get confirmation that the boat is OK. I also know a number of people who stayed. Those in USVI BVI St Marten had a hard time. Most lost their boats. A couple survived but with serious damage. This includes a catamaran that lost it's mast and seems to have been inverted at one point.

When Maria was developing some boats headed South from the threat zone. I have friends who bailed out of Guadeloupe and took refuge in Trois Islets Martinique. They had 40 knots but survived just fine. Those people who continued round to Marin also did OK although some have some damage. I have not heard of anybody missing at sea from this group.

The decision to leave the USVI BVI St Marten Antigua prior to Irma was an easy one to make IMHO. 3 days warning and the spaghetti was in agreement. I would have been beating feet South.

Maria was a fast developing storm and really only gave 2 days notice with some considerable doubt as to it's path. I do not know if I would have left Guadeloupe. Although I would have got myself round into canal between Basse Terre and Grande Terre and done the mangrove thing.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Arcb said:


> I've got Reeds Maritime Meteorology open in front of me, chapter 17 is titled "Avoidance of the Worst Effects of a TRS". The chapter is basically dedicated to strategies to reposition a vessel or alter the vessels route to mitigate the impact of a TRS, including hurricanes.
> 
> I would say if Reeds dedicates a chapter to repositioning prior to and during a TRS, then there must be some validity to it.
> 
> No where does Reeds refer to "outrunning" a hurricane, but I'm not sure I've seen any one else refer to that either, except for the folks arguing against it.


Oh it's been said both explicitly and implicitly - and even done. Did you not see the example of above of the 5 skippers who did exactly this?

Look at it this way, do the math on how far you would have had to sail with Irma to get out of her way - *IF, that is, you knew the exact point from which you need sail* - which you won't. Then figure out how long that would take at 4-5 knots - . Then figure out when most people with recreational cruising boats would realistically pull that trigger.










Reed positioning her vessel in Chapter 17 makes perfect sense...in Chapter 17...and for working seaman who have little choice than to be out there vs recreational boaters who have all the choice in the world...but let's roll with it...

For example, if you're underway and you're going to get hit, then yes those strategies make perfect sense as they are the ONLY thing you can do to minimize your chances of death because you are already screwed. But as many have said, why would you be out there in the first place in hurricane season? Well, if you're Reed you ARE out there because it's your job. If you're on a small recreational sailboat - you sure shouldn't be out there...and won't be for long.

On the other hand, if you're moving your boat "out of the way" of the storm you either hit the dilemma above (in which case luck is the biggest factor) - or you leave for the Bay of Fundy when the little yellow Hurricane Center X first pops up off the coast of Africa, or, better yet, you just stay at the Bay of Fundy until Christmas.

Most choose to either stay put and hope for the best - or, like the 5 above, try to run and get into trouble.


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## SanderO (Jul 12, 2007)

You don't outrun a hurricane. But for those sailors on the northern part of the Caribbean... they can, with several day's notice head south and avoid the storm. You do this when the storm has FORMED and NAMED and this usually gives you adequate time to get far enough south as the storm is usually several days away from the leeward islands. The safe approach is to get out of the area in the Hurricane season and not wait until the last moment.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

capta said:


> From the picture here Hurricane Maria: Woman and children stranded on vessel rescued - BBC News
> This hardly looks like the bottom of a cruising sailboat. I guess this sort of misinformation is necessary to support an inflammatory post.


Ahm...didn't you say this?



capta said:


> FWIW, I haven't yet heard of any fatalities *in the boating community* from anywhere in the Caribbean or Fla.


And there will be more. In fact I could post more now.

And yes, capta, you are inflammatory. And often wrong about a lot of things. I wish you luck out there.

With that, I must bid you adieu. This thread has run its course.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

You have said adieu twice now. Please mean it this time.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Heres a guy who made good decisions and saved his boat with Irma headed straight for him. A great example of what capta and I agree on.

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=191515


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## bigdogandy (Jun 21, 2008)

Bleemus said:


> Heres a guy who made good decisions and saved his boat with Irma headed straight for him. A great example of what capta and I agree on.
> 
> Post Irma- Here's my Story - Cruisers & Sailing Forums


Personally, I think what that captain did was foolish if not outright stupid, but that's just my opinion. He got lucky and survived, and I am glad he did.....but I wouldn't risk my life to save a boat, no matter how much it cost or how much I loved it. He's lucky Irma didn't jog south, or have some kind of mechanical failure on his way to St. Croix, or arrive only to find the mangroves already full, etc.

Just my two cents.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

+1 bigdog

The moral of the story...



> There I witnessed a bay crammed full of boats with additional boats just getting ready with anchor and lines. *Having arrived so late I felt lucky to not have come in earlier and now being part of this overbooked, ill-advised circus.*
> 
> A few hours later *Irma passed, 60 miles to the north of us, but as everyone knows now, right through the middle of the Virgin Islands with sustained winds of 185 miles an hour&#8230; for nearly three hours. *


This was not "good skippering". This was just luck. Like a china tea cup left untouched on a shelf after a tornado. You don't congratulate the tea cup.

Adieu.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Just step out there and adjust your lines...




__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10208513416786996


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Apparently someone doesnt know the meaning of adieu.


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Bleemus said:


> Apparently someone doesnt know the meaning of adieu.


Doesn't it kinda remind you of one of those yappy little wiry haired terriers that just won't stop tearing up some old rag doll?


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

bigdogandy said:


> Personally, I think what that captain did was foolish if not outright stupid, but that's just my opinion. He got lucky and survived, and I am glad he did.....but I wouldn't risk my life to save a boat, no matter how much it cost or how much I loved it. He's lucky Irma didn't jog south, or have some kind of mechanical failure on his way to St. Croix, or arrive only to find the mangroves already full, etc.
> 
> Just my two cents.


What about staying to save your home from a wildfire? A lot of folks have been able to save their home by using the hose and keeping the roof and grounds wet, as the embers fell from a nearby fire.


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## bigdogandy (Jun 21, 2008)

capta said:


> What about staying to save your home from a wildfire? A lot of folks have been able to save their home by using the hose and keeping the roof and grounds wet, as the embers fell from a nearby fire.


I don't know anything about wildfires, so can't really comment on that. And, my prior post was my opinion only - every skipper has the right to their own opinion and course of action.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)




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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Scott is receiving universal praise for taking decisive action and saving his boat. He was decisive, didnt take undue risks as the 50 mile sail was uneventful. 

He wasn't lucky. Lucky is leaving your boat on the hard with mast up directly in the projected path of Cat 4 hurricane and sitting in Texas hoping you dont lose it. Lucky is the storm going to Cat 2. Complaining to people who have made the decision to evade multiple times successfully doesn't make your deer in the headlights reaction justifiable. 

From what I read I would hire Scott as crew any time.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> He wasn't lucky. Lucky is leaving your boat on the hard with mast up directly in the projected path of Cat 4 hurricane and sitting in Texas hoping you dont lose it.


What a load of ****e!!


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Normally these days I wouldn't (and probably shouldn't) respond to this kind of same old aggro stuff from some of the same guys as before, but I actually think that because noobs read this forum it's important. Very important.

To illustrate what I mean, this Captain Scott himself says this over on CF...



> Saturday was spent watching the slow progress of Irma, along with watching videos and reading articles and observations (as in this Forum!) regarding surviving a hurricane on a boat (something I had never done).


So, I'll do a more full exploration of these issues (and insults) in an upcoming SmackTalk video. But for now let's just stick with the facts...

Was this guy lucky? Or was he decisive and took no undue risks?

1. He leaves his 47' cat *on a mooring* in St. Thomas at the *absolute peak of hurricane season*. The steering is disabled. He flies to Cali.

2. His days/dates listed on CF don't seem to match up. For example, he talks about Friday 9/8 being the day he starts to get worried back in CA. Yet on the 8th, Irma has already passed through the VIs and is nearing Cuba. (No one seems to question that on CF - not surprising.)

So I'm assuming he's talking about the 1st? If so, he leaves Cali *Sunday night the 3rd* flying right into this...










By this point, Irma has been on the NHC's radar for about a week, and has been listed as a tropical storm showing development into a hurricane for several days. Now it's showing at a major hurricane with both St. Thomas and St. Croix in the crosshairs.

3. He gets there Monday afternoon 9/4 to start working on his boat. His *PLAN* is to move to the "hurricane hole" right there at Benner Bay (not "Brenner" as he says). The only reason he does not do this is because it's full (as you might expect due to how close Irma already is and all the other boats already taking action). He himself admits this stroke of luck in being late to the game of preparing for Irma...



> I felt lucky (#1) to not have come in earlier...


*So this stroke of luck defeats is PLAN*. And he has to find another option and picks a spot in St. Croix on Google Earth.

He also finds he has a dead starter battery and says this...



> Luckily (#2) the auto parts store was open until 8pm that Labor Day evening.


Another stroke of luck.

4. He gets up at 0330 on Tuesday morning 9/5 and heads out into this...










As you can see, the projected track has now shifted south, and he is heading from one clearly marked *hurricane warning* area to another. His chosen hurricane hole is within this cone, still showing a possibility of a direct hit, with now a little over 24 hours left. And Irma is now one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in history.

He says he had no idea what he'd find when he got to St. Croix, but got lucky and works into Tuesday evening securing his boat with the help of an experienced person in the same model boat. He says this...



> Lucky (#3) for me&#8230;. as the owner Humphrey offered his time to help me get Silver Lining ready as Island Thyme was already set. I am forever and thankfully in his debt.


5. Irma slams St. Thomas the following morning, 60 miles north and we all know the rest of the story.

There is absolutely no question he was lucky. Luck is what saved this man. Period. *Even he* has admitted this himself at least 3 times. I *certainly* don't hold that against him. Luck saved our boat too as I've already said (with, of course, some planning and preparation on our part contrary to your insults).

Holding this guy up as some kind of "decisive hero" that didn't take "undue risks" will get him or someone else killed. It's that simple. If you have *any experience at all as a sailor*, you look at the above forecasts, what he chose to do, and you KNOW that he got VERY lucky - just as he admits. Holing up in a spot that's under a Cat 5 hurricane WARNING with a HUGE storm that is the one of the most powerful in history, and betting on a 30 mile shift over a 24 hour period? You call this good decision making? Good skippering? Have you ever heard of Robin Walbridge?

The people on CF may not know better than to "universally praise" something like this, but they should. Hopefully new sailors will get a more realistic view of things like this here on SN and/or on CA. This was a stupendously bad call. It's a bit like calling this good footwork...










I am very, very happy he has his life and his boat. But I hope someone has the guts to tell him the truth.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Bleemus I've been reading your posts for some years now. I've thought of you as a experienced professional. I think you know the following.
Yes we want crew who makes the best of what ever difficult situation we're in but captains are supposed to be thinking strategically not just tactically. Hence unless there's a compelling reason sailboats big and small leave the zone BEFORE the period of high risk.
Owners generally have no interest in being in the zone as the "season "has moved elsewhere. Those who accept charters have gone to the med or Maine where greater likelihood of suitable charters to defray costs exist.
Virtually all boats big and small, captained or cruiser are insured. In every policy you pay a financial penalty if you're not north of 38 and not infrequently 40 or south of 12. It makes no economic sense to stay in the zone unless you have no choice.
Moorings/Sunsail are in a different position. Given the way they have set up ownership and inside their business model absorbing the lost of their fleet is survivable. Particularly when the principals are not at risk of loss of life. Yes they will lose the income from a season but will move on. Bottom line will take a hit. Smaller vendors, particularly those self insured, will fold with further market consolidation. 
So, Bleemus, as a professional you know the captain of the 47' cat wasn't thinking strategically. Not a good captain but maybe good crew.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Agreed to a degree. We dont know all of the reasons why his boat was in the box during the season. He did mention steering failure and was in the process of constructing a repair at home. 

I spent a typhoon season in the so called box of the Pacific because the owners schedule dictated it. He was made aware that if we were unable to find a good escape route that the chance of losing his multi million dollar yacht was a very real possibility. He was okay with that and his first concern was that his crew seek safety at the expense of the boat if neccessary. We repositioned twice due to the formation of significant waves developing to our east and avoided any issues luckily. If it were the choice of the crew alone we wouldnt have been there but sometimes other factors exist. 

So, in the case of being in a bad spot due to unforseen circumstances, would I rather prepare a boat in a crowded hurricane hole or find a remote mangrove hole? From the carnage photos we have all seen recently you can probably guess I will take the mangrove solution every time. When a Cat 5 typhoon hit near Cairns Australia the only boats that made it were those who buried themselves deep in the mangroves. Faced with the time constraints and available info I believe the guy who ran and hid in the mangroves of St Croix made decent decisions. Would I have done the exact same thing? I dont know. You would have to put me in Colorado being the owner of a trimaran sitting in St Thomas a few days before a Cat 5 hurricane hits it.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

To wit:


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Big difference between repositioning before the storm and sailing in it.


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

smackdaddy said:


> Normally these days I wouldn't (and probably shouldn't) respond to this kind of same old aggro stuff from some of the same guys as before, but I actually think that because noobs read this forum it's important. Very important.
> 
> To illustrate what I mean, this Captain Scott himself says this over on CF...
> 
> ...


I know Scott, and I know the game of hurricane watching. The last hard landfall was in 1995 with Marilyn. Earl and a couple others gave us some minor brushes for the interim 22 YEARS. There are a LOT of boats on the moorings during hurricane season in the V.I., BVI and Culebra. People live on their boats. Not everyone has the bank to haul out and go rent an apartment for six months a year. I know several who ran to Vieques, stayed on their boats up in the mangroves, took a direct hit from Maria, and did fine with minor damage. They are BACK ON THEIR MOORINGS IN THE V.I. RIGHT NOW. No choice. School, work, life, and certainly no room ANYWHERE to haul out. A bunch of you guys have no clue what you're talking about. Everyone's situation is different. I'm guessing Scott did what he figured he had to do, and it sounds like he made the right decision. But I don't know, and, certainly, the armchair critics don't either.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> Big difference between repositioning before the storm and sailing in it.


I believe they were caught in it which appears the cat owner could have been also. It appears it was the chance he took and was lucky.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

ScottUK said:


> I believe they were caught in it which appears the cat owner could have been also. It appears it was the chance he took and was lucky.


Then they made a bad decision.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

VIEXILE said:


> Everyone's situation is different. I'm guessing Scott did what he figured he had to do, and it sounds like he made the right decision. But I don't know, and, certainly, the armchair critics don't either.


People should do what is right by them as in the instances cited but I could question their choices if they choose wrong and asked others to take risks to mitigate their choices such as the video I linked to above.

I do take exception when a decision is questioned especially when it appears the decision appears to have been the correct one as noted in the pile of bollocks above.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> Then they made a bad decision.


Yes they were unlucky just as the cat owner was lucky and Smack was lucky and I was lucky.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Thanks for posting that video Scott. The first vessel with 4 rescues came out of Sarasota, ~50 miles north from where our boat currently is. The CG dude says that they were 120 miles west in the Gulf, which is what has been said earlier should have been "plenty of room" based on the "projected path" (much less where the storm actually went which was farther east than projections). The second boat was south of Apalachicola, so I'm going to assume they came out of the Tampa area and went WNW. It looks like they would have been ~110 miles out as well. *20' - 25' seas were reported by the CG* the night of 9/9 and morning of 9/10 (while the storm center is still a good way southeast of their positions). With a storm of this magnitude, this is not at all surprising.

So, just judging by distance and assumed speed, it looks like both of these boats left ~1 day before Irma hit their respective areas...which I think would have been the 10th or 11th depending on how far north. (This incidentally fits my 4-5 knot average speed mentioned above because it's not going to be smooth sailing out there if you leave this late - especially in my "very, very slow Hunter"...which rates a 96 BTW. Otherwise, if they left even earlier they're either moving even far slower than 4-5 knots or just hanging out out there which isn't super smart.)

Anyway, here is the spaghetti on that morning of the 9th...










Now, with the above spaghetti, bear in mind that Irma is *still in Cuba at this point* - and has not yet turned north. These rescues are happening *the following morning of 10th - hundreds of miles north of this current position.*

Here is the forecast on that same morning from the Naples area, which gives you a sense of how big this storm is. Even though it's in Cuba, its northern outer bands are already reaching Naples...*and it's still headed west - not north*. And it's maybe twice as wide as Florida.






So, are you really going to "simply run west perpendicular to the track" at this point?

At about 1:50 in the above vid, you can see the predicted direct hit on our boat at Category 4 strength. And as we know, Irma ended up moving *further east* which weakened her. That was our luck. And I acknowledge it and am very thankful for it.

But *even with this move east*, due to her sheer size, those in this video that tried to run a day or so before impact were slammed...*while the storm was still very far off*. The difference is they were just out in the Gulf with zero protection...and SAR was called and their boats were lost.

So, like the dude on CF, what these guys in the video are doing is the absolute definition of trying to "outrun" or "outmaneuver" a hurricane at the last minute. The difference is, these sailors headed out to sea where the CF dude moved into a *fortunately* available sheltered area that *fortunately* remained out of the track of the storm. Simply because one came through okay and the others didn't doesn't make the CF dude's call a good one. These others did the same thing that he's being praised for, and even what has been advocated as good skippering in this thread. They are all the same in that regard.

But, as is very clear in the videos, making a call to run west *was a bad call* despite what has been said earlier (unless they left several days before this when Irma was still very far away...but also when the spaghetti still pointed to a much more easterly track making the threat less...again making that a much less certain call at that point - the dilemma we've been talking about in this thread).

At the end of the day, my so-called "deer in the headlights" move of placing my boat on the hard prior to hurricane season, stripping all the canvas, and securing everything was a much wiser move than taking some of the above advice and being the deer that *runs* directly into the car. I had no doubt about that myself, of course. But, I do also freely admit that we got lucky in that the storm wasn't worse when she hit us. Even so, we certainly didn't need SAR and neither I nor my family were in any danger whatsoever. Only our boat was at risk - and that's a risk I've prepared for and can accept..

The bottom line of this thread for me is that if you're not going to move your boat completely out of "the box" for hurricane season (the wisest skippering move of all) then you've intrinsically assumed a higher level of risk. If, at that level of risk, you choose to leave your boat on a mooring, anchored, or in a marina as opposed to *secured as well as possible on land*, you've assumed a much higher level of risk still. Then if you choose to try to move out of the hurricane's path "at the last minute" (less than *several days* before impact) and find a hurricane-hole to hunker down in, you're still at the same general level of risk of impact that you were on that mooring, just less exposed. Only luck in the path actually being where you *think* it's going to be will save you. But more importantly, it's now your boat* AND YOU* that are in danger...extending that risk out to others who may need to save you. Then, if you make the even worse call of trying to go to sea to get out of its way "at the last minute" (less than several days before impact at a point when there's much more uncertainty as to the strength and direction of the hurricane), you've gone to the highest risk level possible for your boat, you, and others who may need to save you.

Finally, if you're making these higher risk decisions because you're attached to your possessions or can't afford to do anything else, you're making very bad decisions...period....which will easily have an impact on many others around you. This is not good skippering no matter how you cut it.

In all of the above scenarios, aside from being completely out of the box, luck is required. It's just a question of how much luck you're counting on to come out the other side. The worst part is if you *are* the recipient of that luck, but instead think and claim that it was your brilliant skippering that saved you - it's only a matter of time before you skipper yourself into a spot where there's no more luck.

Being a good skipper means reducing risk...and putting the value of life above the value of things. I'd much prefer to sail with good skippers than lucky ones.


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

There were years when every single hurricane that came across the Atlantic jagged north two days before making it to the Islands. Like clockwork. Any "miss" by a hurricane is lucky. It may have been a bad decision to put all your boats in Paraquita Bay instead of running them to Vieques and jamming them in the mangroves. In Irma, Paraquita didn't work. But the Lagoon in St. Thomas did. In Maria, the Lagoon didn't. My boat sat on a mooring when Earl nicked us around 2010 and survived 2-20 plus footers rolling in from the SW. Everybody around me sank. The smartest thing to do is pack your boat up, put it away where you can and get to shore. St. Croix is 40 miles south of St. Thomas. About 4 hours, maybe a little more with a cat. It's an ass kicking reach either way. Some of you guys simply have all the answers, don't you?


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

VIEXILE said:


> The smartest thing to do is pack your boat up, put it away where you can and get to shore. .... Some of you guys simply have all the answers, don't you?


Not sure to whom you are referencing having "all the answers" but from your first sentence above we are in agreement as is, from his postings, Smack.

Cheers for the above analysis Smack.


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## heading168 (Sep 27, 2017)

VIEXILE said:


> I know Scott, and I know the game of hurricane watching. The last hard landfall was in 1995 with Marilyn. Earl and a couple others gave us some minor brushes for the interim 22 YEARS. There are a LOT of boats on the moorings during hurricane season in the V.I., BVI and Culebra. People live on their boats. Not everyone has the bank to haul out and go rent an apartment for six months a year. I know several who ran to Vieques, stayed on their boats up in the mangroves, took a direct hit from Maria, and did fine with minor damage. They are BACK ON THEIR MOORINGS IN THE V.I. RIGHT NOW. No choice. School, work, life, and certainly no room ANYWHERE to haul out. A bunch of you guys have no clue what you're talking about. Everyone's situation is different. I'm guessing Scott did what he figured he had to do, and it sounds like he made the right decision. But I don't know, and, certainly, the armchair critics don't either.


I'm sitting here waiting for a window to go down there Culebra/Vieques(doesn't seem like USVI there is much left) info coming out is about nil I'm trying to figure out where to go first. Do you really know people down there now? if so might you contact me so we can exchange info maybe I could bring something down for them etc etc...


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## capta (Jun 27, 2011)

Two stories from folks out here doing it, not playing a game on an internet forum:

THE LESSON FROM HURRICANE IRMA. We arrived at Simpson Bay Marina in St. Maarten. I talked to other sailors and to the dock master. Everybody said to us to tight well and stay. We started to feel safe. Then an old guy (A/C service) came. He said to me the place was not safe. He said some boats sunk for hurricanes in the past. I managed to move the boat in the safest place of the marina... Then my rigger from Antigua started to email me. He said this hurricane was going to be... BAD. And that I had to leave. Everyday the forecast was getting worst. On Saturday, I decided we had to leave. On Sunday morning, we went to clear the customs. We were alone. At the opening of the bridge we were the only boat to sail away! On Monday, by early afternoon, we were anchored in anse d'Arlets in Martinique. Tuesday morning we decided to move even southern, and we made it to St. Lucia, Rodney Bay Marina. Then Irma came. The first spot I was in St. Marteen doesn't exist anymore. The pier has gone. The boat that took our place in the safe spot... has sunk. All the boats but two have sunk. Even the one of the Swiss guy that welcomed me on arrival and showed me that he worked for days to prepare his boat for the hurricane. Now he can see only the top of his mast... underwater. The lesson? We have boats. They do move. Once you are sure of the track and it looks bad... run in time away from it in a safe place!
- Massimiliano Lisa 


On the Thursday before Irma hit We were sailing north two hours out of Barbuda heading to st Martin. Decided on One last weather check before we lost Internet and boom Irma showed up as a major hurricane on a direct path through Barbuda and st Martin. We literally just turned the boat around and sailed for 30 hours about 220nm south to Marigot Bay St Lucia. Sat a day there and still felt to close to the eye of such a huge hurricane so we moved further South to Bequia In the Grenadines. Watching the weather the whole time and preparing to sail further if needed. I too could not believe how many sailors stayed and thought there was any chance of surviving a cat 5 hurricane.
- Helen Bell


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

The difference between those that do it for a living and the computer cowboys is quite alive. No dodger needed! LOL!


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

As Scott said above, I'm not sure what we're saying here is so different from the point of these stories. Again, it boils down to the impact window (time and path).

In the instance of Massimiliano Lisa, *they left Sunday morning* - long before Irma was even at the position shown here at 11 pm that night ~640 miles to the east of Barbuda...










...leaving them roughly *3 full days* of sailing time before impact. They sail ~250 miles in the next ~30 hours (good speed - cat?), and are well out of the cone with Irma still ~200 miles out from Barbuda. Then they push even further south another ~35 miles to St. Lucia stopping there Tuesday afternoon - because they see that they are still gambling that Irma won't dip further south than currently shown in the above track. They are now around 300 miles south and Irma is just now starting to impact Antiqua/Barbuda...










And it's the same with the Helen Bell story...it's Thursday she says. That leaves them a *a full five days* to get out of the way. What's not to like?

Both of these skippers are well away from all this by the time things go pear-shaped *because they left plenty early*. That's good skippering and is nothing like the other instances above where people are trying to outrun/outmaneuver it with too little time or room left before impact. Sure it's definitely more risk and more need for luck than those skippers who left in May for Brazil or the Bay of Fundy - but still.

And as I said in our game, the scenario where you're cruising like these people and are mobile and not tied to places or jobs, it's a great call. It's an easy call. Especially when you know it's going to be BAD as she says. Otherwise, it sounds like she might have stayed and gambled a bit more if it was a lesser hurricane.

So, both of these skippers use time as the safety factor to reduce risk and their need for luck. Yet, they *still* had luck on their side that Irma didn't dip further south than she did. Florida, on the other hand, was a much harder call on every level.

So it seems all us out-there-doing-it skippers are in violent agreement here - unless we're including CF dude in this group. Cheers.


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

heading168 said:


> I'm sitting here waiting for a window to go down there Culebra/Vieques(doesn't seem like USVI there is much left) info coming out is about nil I'm trying to figure out where to go first. Do you really know people down there now? if so might you contact me so we can exchange info maybe I could bring something down for them etc etc...


See if you can get through to Stuart at Lazy Jack's in Vieques and see if there is anything they need. The only contact I had with Vieques was right after Maria, when a friend and family stuck it in the Mangroves and sent out a retransmitted Ham notice that they were O.K., a little damage, sitting in a big mess. They're back on the mooring in St.Thomas now.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Read the above posts with interest but see flaws obvious to even to someone with only a few seasons in the area.
Goingeast from anywhere in the leewards is difficult. Most wait ( sometimes for days on end) for a suitable window. Once at the "elbow " of leewards/windwards going west or south are much easier. 
Boats are lost in the mangroves. Storm surge, chafed lines, high winds lead to total loses even with well prepped boats. 
Knowledge of weather requires minimal expenditure. Cruising nets both on vhf,and ssb are available for free. It's just a few bucks for a chip in an unlocked smart phone to go the next level up. There is little justification to be unaware of predictive models.
Jobs, school and financial issues are no excuse to not go to an area where none of the spaghetti models show a possible hit. There is no school during a hurricane nor immediately before or after. Same with routine work. If in a low paying job where you're required to prepare someone else's processions no reason not to leave. There be plenty of clean up work afterwards. Key personnel jobs pay enough that it becomes practical to have the boat insured and on the hard so you only have to pay attention to personal and family safety. Loss of the boat is absorbable. If living on resources previously acquired and kids home schooled there is no reason to be there at all.
So prepositioning before hurricane season makes sense for just about all. Prepositioning well in advance once cyclonic motion is detected makes sense for those still in the box. Being able to make it to Trinidad or at least Grenada days before a possible strike if in the windwards or at the elbow is reasonable. If in the leewards there are very limited options to be truly secure. Up current, down wind sailing still possibly leaves you in the cone. So either accept you may lose your boat or arrange your life to be out of the zone during hurricane season.
Can't fool Mother Nature.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

smackdaddy said:


> Being a good skipper means reducing risk...


Does it? Or does it mean recognising, analyzing and managing risk, including some times tolerating it?

On another point, twice in this thread I have seen references to high profile occurrences on tall ships. I'm wondering if the folks quoting them have read the reports on those occurrences?

In one of those situations the vessel had taken shelter, she did not run to the open sea. She attempted to take shelter behind Roatan and became boxed in by 2 lee shores and a large storm approaching from the only exit point. This example is hardly a good example of why not to reposition to avoid a storm.

The other example had some fairly straightforward forward findings in the NTSB report. The cause was determined to be the decision to sail into the well forecast path of a hurricane in an aging ship with inexperienced crew.

Maybe if the decision to put to sea and avoid the storm rather than sail right into it, the outcome would have been different? Maybe if the vessel had been newer and better maintained things might have turned out better? Maybe if the crew had been more experienced, it might have turned out different?

The devil is in the details, and the details on these two occurrences are well published.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> The difference between those that do it for a living and the computer cowboys is quite alive. No dodger needed! LOL!


Do not think most on this forum sail for a living. It seems you are either referencing yourself as a computer cowboy or you do you actually actively sail for a living?


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

ScottUK said:


> Do not think most on this forum sail for a living. It seems you are either referencing yourself as a computer cowboy or you do you actually actively sail for a living?


Only sailed professionally for 20 years. Just recreationally now.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> Only sailed professionally for 20 years. Just recreationally now.


So a computer cowboy as per your definition.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

ScottUK said:


> So a computer cowboy as per your definition.


Here is a photo of me singlehanding a 76 footer out of Grand Cayman. We had computers on board so I guess your right!


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> Here is a photo of me singlehanding a 76 footer out of Grand Cayman. We had computers on board so I guess your right!


So as per your changing definition(s) it would appear a person is worthy to post on this forum if they are computer cowboys (sorry computer cowgirls) but only if the computer is on board a boat. Check - I'm on my boat and on my computer so I am good to go. I think we are going to lose a few posters though. I'll take a knee for them.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Anybody can post on a public forum but BS should never be allowed to be passed off as experience. 

PS In the photo above we were in the "box" in the middle of hurricane season. When you are on a boat that can easily put 250 miles under the keel from noon to noon you dont worry about it. It also helps that the owner was a personal friend of the CEO of Pantaenius.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> Anybody can post on a public forum but BS should never be allowed to be passed off as experience.
> 
> PS In the photo above we were in the "box" in the middle of hurricane season. When you are on a boat that can easily put 250 miles under the keel from noon to noon you dont worry about it. It also helps that the owner was a personal friend of the CEO of Pantaenius.


Not sure what BS are you referring to but I would suggest presenting a cogent argument rather than blanket aspersions seen in previous posts.

Call me a worrier but I would still want to remain vigilant despite the speed of the boat in the "box".


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

The discussion was about the viability of repositioning to avoid the worst of a storm. Some here claim that it is a poor option. The boats that moved from St Martin to Luperon would disagree. I'm with them.


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## TQA (Apr 4, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> The discussion was about the viability of repositioning to avoid the worst of a storm. Some here claim that it is a poor option. The boats that moved from St Martin to Luperon would disagree. I'm with them.


Also remember that most boats that escaped from USVI, BVI St Marten pre Irma, simply went South. Even a 4 knot SB would make 150 miles in a day and a half. That would see you into the Canal de Sens between the arms of the butterfly [ Guadeloupe ]. This is a damn good mangrove hurricane hole. I know of people who sheltered there with no damage and no drama.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

TQA said:


> Also remember that most boats that escaped from USVI, BVI St Marten pre Irma, simply went South. Even a 4 knot SB would make 150 miles in a day and a half. That would see you into the Canal de Sens between the arms of the butterfly [ Guadeloupe ]. This is a damn good mangrove hurricane hole. I know of people who sheltered there with no damage and no drama.


And great restaurants!


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Bleemus said:


> The discussion was about the viability of repositioning to avoid the worst of a storm. Some here claim that it is a poor option. The boats that moved from St Martin to Luperon would disagree. I'm with them.


I think the argument is concerning timing rather than viability and making decisions effecting others. I also believe your straw man "some here claim" argument is conflated.

Though what is viable could become untenable should the forecast/cone change. It is bit like a game of Russian roulette and, eventually, the stats will catch up.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

All I know is that experience never trumps common sense. If a skipper has years of making questionable calls, that's experience - of a sort. As arcb mentions above, we probably saw that with the Bounty. A friend of mine knew the Bounty skipper very well. He said this incident was indicative of how that skipper typically did things, with the other skippers around him shaking their heads. Decades of "experience", yes. But when you think your experience makes you smarter than a hurricane you get into trouble. You've lost common sense because you think you've got it under control because of your experience.

And yes, arcb, reducing risk is what a good skipper does. That's what "managing" it means. It's always there but you're always taking steps to reduce it as much as possible. Tolerating increasing risk is not good skippering.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

smackdaddy said:


> And yes, arcb, reducing risk is what a good skipper does. That's what "managing" it means. It's always there but you're always taking steps to reduce it as much as possible. Tolerating increasing risk is not good skippering.


I think we agree on your first point.

But I think we'll need to agree to disagree on your second point.

Hypothetical situation. We are doing a crossing from x island to Y island in 30 knots of wind.

Some of the risks we face might include:
Crew Fatigue
Large Seas
Down flooding through a hatch or vent
Damage to stressed rigging.

Risk management controls we put in place:
Crew rotation processes to minimize fatigue (watch system)
Engineered systems to reduce the risk of crew being washed overboard (life lines)
Engineered systems to reduce the risk of down flooding (new hatch seals, check the dogs, test the pumps)
Process to reduce the risk of rigging damage (reef early)
Risks we tolerate, the possibility we may strike on unseen submerged object, the possibility that the forecast is completely wrong. Etc.

I guess I must be a bad skipper, because there are plenty of risks I tolerate.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Okay.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> I think we agree on your first point.
> 
> But I think we'll need to agree to disagree on your second point.
> 
> ...


Reducing risk = risk management, no way around it.

It appears from this thread you are only a bad skipper if you are unlucky. If you sail into the middle of a Cat 5 and make it you are a very experienced sailor and everybody wants you on their crew.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

A we all tolerate risks but :

There are old sailors
There are bold sailors
There are few old, bold sailors

When I am racing or have really good crew reef later. 
When boat is set up for blue water versus the coastal set up will tolerate more green water 
The list goes on on but constantly recalculating risk. With hurricanes you get one chance to call the the shot. Wrong and boat's gone +/or you're dead.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

Skipper!


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Bleemus said:


> Here is a photo of me singlehanding a 76 footer out of Grand Cayman. We had computers on board so I guess your right!


Computers have come a long way since the time that photo was taken when we were still doing punch-card navigation...










That is a roomy aft cabin though. Heh.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Reducing risk = risk management, no way around it.
> 
> It appears from this thread you are only a bad skipper if you are unlucky. If you sail into the middle of a Cat 5 and make it you are a very experienced sailor and everybody wants you on their crew.


Did I say anything about sailing into the middle of a category 5 hurricane, or did I say tolerating some risk is part of a skippers job.

Pretty sure the job of a professional skipper is to make the owner money by using his judgement to accept certain risks.

Folks intent on eliminating all risk wouldn't do too well in that line of work.


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## Bleemus (Oct 13, 2015)

smackdaddy said:


> Computers have come a long way since the time that photo was taken when we were still doing punch-card navigation...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We actually had GPS and a laptop at the time that photo was taken. I remember fondly sending the Magnavox 5102 Sat Nav to the bottom of the ocean.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> Did I say anything about sailing into the middle of a category 5 hurricane, or did I say tolerating some risk is part of a skippers job.
> 
> Pretty sure the job of a professional skipper is to make the owner money by using his judgement to accept certain risks.
> 
> Folks intent on eliminating all risk wouldn't do too well in that line of work.


No, you did not say that nor did I say you did nor did anybody, I believe, say they could eliminate all risks.

Yes, the professional skipper should, in my view, reduce risk where it can be reduced and be aware of risks that can not be mitigated.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> where it can be reduced and be aware of risks that can not be mitigated.


Yes otherwise known as "tolerating" risk.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> Yes otherwise known as "tolerating" risk.


Never argued against risk toleration, however you posited in a previous post risk can not be reduced. That is untrue.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Never argued against risk toleration, however you posited in a previous post risk can not be reduced. That is untrue.


Nonsense. Show me where.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> Nonsense. Show me where.


Post 173 and I agree it is nonsense.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Post 173 and I agree it is nonsense.


Do you need help with your reading comprehension?

Explain to me how that says I said risk can not be reduced?


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

You're all getting trolled by people that have never been within 1000 miles of the Caribbean zone. Stop it.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> Do you need help with your reading comprehension?
> 
> Explain to me how that says I said risk can not be reduced?


Smack wrote "a good skipper reduces risk". You replied "does it?" I admit my comprehension might be diminished due to your semantical excercise.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

VIEXILE said:


> You're all getting trolled by people that have never been within 1000 miles of the Caribbean zone. Stop it.


Elaborate please.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Smack wrote "a good skipper reduces risk". You replied "does it?" I admit my comprehension might be diminished due to your semantical excercise.


If you're going to quote then quote, don't make up your own version of what I said to suit your argument.

You can't pick two words followed by a question mark and say that is the full meaning of a paragraph. That's not how English works.

I'm not looking for approval from you or Smack on how I manage risk or from how I skipper a boat, pretty sure I've got enough experience to figure out how much risk I can stomach without your help.

Reducing risk is not always my goal. Managing risk is part of what I do every time I take a boat out.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> If you're going to quote then quote, don't make up your own version of what I said to suit your argument.
> 
> You can't pick two words followed by a question mark and say that is the full meaning of a paragraph. That's not how English works.
> 
> ...


Being a good skipper means reducing risk...
Does it?

There you go- pasted verbatim. Good luck arguing with that.

Not looking to give my approval to anyone. It appears there is something to be said about Smack's argument about common sense trumping experience with statements like "reducing risk is not always my goal". Although I do not really believe you mean that.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Being a good skipper means reducing risk...
> Does it?
> 
> There you go- pasted verbatim. Good luck arguing with that.
> ...


Still don't want to quote me in context eh?

The goal of taking a boat away from dock is rarely to reduce risk. The goal might be pleasure, transportation or profit, amongst other possibilities.

Risk management is a tool that is used to help us measure, prioritise, control and reduce the the probability and impact of risks.

If risk is continuously reduced and never increased or kept the same then the possibility of us achieving our goal will reduce until it becomes impossible to achieve our goal.

Yes, sometimes I accept an increased level of risk if I believe it will help me achieve my goal.

Weather routing and storm avoidance tactics are a risk reduction strategy. But it's a strategy that is totally irrelevant if we don't chose to tolerate the risk of being in a location that some times experiences storms.

It's a complex issue. More complex than-you're a bad skipper if you tolerate an increased level of risk to achieve a certain goal.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> Still don't want to quote me in context eh?


First you say I misquoted you. Now you say the quote is not in context. Get your story straight. By the way it's rubbish claiming it is out of context but English might not be you first language.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> The goal of taking a boat away from dock is rarely to reduce risk. The goal might be pleasure, transportation or profit, amongst other possibilities.
> 
> Risk management is a tool that is used to help us measure, prioritise, control and reduce the the probability and impact of risks.
> 
> ...


Now we are in agreement as qualified by your second paragraph.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Now we are in agreement as qualified by your second paragraph.


And like I said in the first paragraph of 173, the one you are afraid to quote in it's entirety. The one you and Smack figure makes me a bad skipper, some times the out come of risk management is to tolerate a risk.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> And like I said in the first paragraph of 173, the one you are afraid to quote in it's entirety. The one you and Smack figure makes me a bad skipper, some times the out come of risk management is to tolerate a risk.


Your argument has been illogical from the outset and is based on absurd semantics. The second paragraph I referred to above exhibits the fallacy of denying the antecedent in relation to, what appears to me, your shifting position on reducing risk.

I have never figured you as a "bad skipper". I do think you are using two different definitional standards to present a convoluted argument.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

To be clear arcb - I've not called you a bad skipper. I don't know you.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

smackdaddy said:


> To be clear arcb - I've not called you a bad skipper. I don't know you.


In all the years I have read your posts I can not once remember you ever getting personal.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

It's all good 

The reason I posted what I did in 173 and the way I posted it (with question marks) wasn't to disagree with the previous post, but to break it down so it could be expanded on. Nobodies goal (I don't think) is to continually reduce risk, it's to reduce risk to a level that is acceptable to them or their business.

As to Scott's impression that my ideas are convoluted or contradictory.

Yes, being a skipper is complicated and there are often competing priorities, it's not a black and white sort of thing. There is no right way to do things, although there may be a few wrong ways of doing things.


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## RegisteredUser (Aug 16, 2010)

ScottUK said:


> .... but English might not be you first language.


You are a fun guy, I can tell.

Nitpicking is not sporting. 
Sure, you can do replays with play-by-play announcing, but
it's still ranked alongside watching paint dry.

There may be an NA/nitpickers anonymous, but I've not looked in to it.
Not sure if match.com has it as listed as a trait or fetish.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

RegisteredUser said:


> You are a fun guy, I can tell.
> 
> Nitpicking is not sporting.
> Sure, you can do replays with play-by-play announcing, but
> ...


You sound fun too! Best of luck in your cherry picking or singling out. Your choice.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

ScottUK said:


> In all the years I have read your posts I can not once remember you ever getting personal.


Thanks Scott. I try very hard to avoid it, even when people are getting very personal with me. Now as you probably know by now after me being around here 9 freakin' years (with a sabbatical or two), I'm an absolute bulldog when it comes to debating *issues*, and sometimes people get offended by that alone, especially if they feel their opinion shouldn't be questioned. But still I try to stick with the issue, stay with the facts, and laugh off the jabs. After all, it's a discussion forum.

These days, however, I have to keep it far more dialed back and civil than I did in the past. I'm trying.


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## Rocky Mountain Breeze (Mar 30, 2015)

Well this thread has turned into being almost as interesting as the national debate on taking a knee during the national anthem...... All are to be congratulated! Now, take a bottle of water and move into the waiting area......


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## CalebD (Jan 11, 2008)

I think there are some important points made in this thread beyond the prodding between a few members. Risk is real.
You guys kiss and make up, ok?


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

smackdaddy said:


> These days, however, I have to keep it far more dialed back and civil than I did in the past. I'm trying.


Alas, it appears the same pack of malcontents are still baying at your heels as before your recent holiday.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

ScottUK said:


> Alas, it appears the same pack of malcontents are still baying at your heels as before your recent holiday.


Have you reduced your risk in the last 24 hours?

If so, how?


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

I have to say arc, now you just seem to be trolling.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

From SA...



> It is sad to hear that this intrepid soul who bailed from St John and headed South for calmer seas as IRMA approached the Virgins was found washed up on Tortola. No sign of the boat. The toll on the Islands will continue to mount.


Notice where he was leaving from and heading to? Sound familiar? Notice where they found him?

Like I said, we only hear from the few who made it. There will be more...sadly.

Fair winds RB.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

Sure smack, your buddy only stated the facts. 

How did you reduce your risk today?


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Funny you should ask arc...I flew from Texas to Florida today to spend the weekend cleaning up and squaring away our boat after the hit from Irma. She's in amazingly good shape for taking on 100+ mph winds and rain...










I'm drinking a scotch at the table right there as I type this, bathed in my wonderfully cheap (and inventive I must say) LED lights (wafers from Amazon).

I'll do a full video of all the issues soon. We did get a bit of water in the boat - but very little. Too dark for exteriors. So I definitely took some serious steps to reduce risk today and am taking care of our awesome Hunter. I'm very thankful and lucky to have this chance.

PS - I'd also already reduced risk by having a buddy from SA who lives nearby to have a look a couple of days after the storm - otherwise I would have come immediately.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Sad. Good guy. Pretty boat. Would back off on this. Someone's tragedy is a tragedy and not gentlemanly to score points on such events. Unnecessary to get this personal except to express condolences. This is not like a ""professional captain" driving his crew to death against their expressed judgment due to his hubris. See that as open to discussion as a professional whose actions lead to loss and death has committed malfeasance.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

Good job my man. I don't have a problem with you. You research, you share. I don't agree with everything you say, but that's cool.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Out I'm only reinforcing the facts of what happened here. What Richard attempted is precisely what some posters here said would be the sure bet.

Richard was a professional charter captain and long in the area. He was a man who knew what he was doing. *He just got caught...doing what you're "supposed to do".* And that's the point of this entire thread.

So I'm not at all disparaging him. I'm hoping people will learn from real life.


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## chef2sail (Nov 27, 2007)

smackdaddy said:


> Thanks Scott. I try very hard to avoid it, even when people are getting very personal with me. Now as you probably know by now after me being around here 9 freakin' years (with a sabbatical or two), I'm an absolute bulldog when it comes to debating *issues*, and sometimes people get offended by that alone, especially if they feel their opinion shouldn't be questioned. But still I try to stick with the issue, stay with the facts, and laugh off the jabs. After all, it's a discussion forum.
> 
> These days, however, I have to keep it far more dialed back and civil than I did in the past. I'm trying.


For what it's worth: 
My humble opinion as one who took many of your unecessary personal barbs

I like the dialed back non personal attacks. 
You have a lot to contribute. Your "old style " got in the way
The true test comes in how you disagree with others
Sometimes your message got lost with all the vitriol, your much more effective this way
You get through to more of us with this civility.

As a fellow sailor Glad you found your boat relatively safe


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

My last year as a pro skipper I moved 200 000 passengers safely to their destination in some pretty sketchy water. My risk management strategy has been vetted.

Edited.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Arc, I'll be straight with you...I think you're nitpicking here and getting into semantics. And I just don't have the energy for or interest in that kind of debate.

You are right, leaving the couch *by definition* is tolerating increased risk. No question. Going offshore in a sailboat increases that risk *exponentially* relative to the couch (though not nearly as much as wingsuiting). And, as you say, we all tolerate it. But that's only part of the equation and I think you know that.

My point is that in the midst of this voluntarily increased "globalized" risk, if one is not taking very active, logical steps to reduce every possible *"localized" risk* - one is a bad skipper. Period. I just don't think there's any room for debate in that. If you do, that's fine. We don't need to agree.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

You make a fair argument. But the reality is, when you drive boats for money, which I do, You take a risk vs reward attitude. If you don't, some other guy will. My attitude has been well vetted.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Bingo, arc. I think that's the difference between paid and rec boating. In rec, there really is no "other guy". And the pro-slanted "competition" angle can get less-informed recreational boaters in *A LOT* of trouble.

That's why I hit on the common sense vs experience angle. If a noob takes a *pro skipper's* advice based on what he'd do to "win"...that noob is screwed, precisely because heshe doesn't have the experience to evaluate and manage localized risk like you do as a pro. Even the pros screw up. You know that. It's a ticking clock - and we all just try to beat it.

Tell the noobs to get off their boats and stay home in a hurricane. That's common sense. Pure and simple.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

Fair point.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Heh-heh. I don't think I have any "followers". Just "testers".


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)




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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

Now both sides are saying it's all about the money honey. Think that's wrong. Know too many pro captains running and moving boats to agree. Know too many live aboards of all stripes to agree. There is no economic argument to justify placing lives unnecessarily at risk. Can cite actual behavior of prudent captains that mitigate risk during hurricane season. Still think it boils down to strategic versus tactical thinking. Best fight is the one that doesn't occur. Particularly when you're fighting Mother Nature. 
Setting the boat up for passage yesterday. Have 200g in two tanks. Have a watermaker. Still filled up a locker with galleon jugs of water to allow obligate survival water for 4 people for two weeks.
Have a storm jib. It's never been flown in anger. Still went up mast and set up set up dyneema stay for it's possible deployment.
Have an AP. But still set up hydrovane. Now have backup rudder and back up auto steering.
Talked to crew. Trip has been done in 8 days. Longest 16 days as hove to for 6 days to let weather pass by. Told them make sure they can miss work for 2 1/2 to 3 weeks if necessary as I won't leave in an unsuitable window. Also told make sure they won't lose their job in the unlikely event it takes even longer.
Smack is right in one regard. If you don't have the money to set up a boat to be safe you need to suck it up and not sail. But reality is their are many ways to skin the cat. Have friends on 40 y old boats. They scrounge around for the best deals, make home brew, put in sweat equity and end up with safe strong vessels. Some sail much more extensively than me. Budget is not an excuse. They watch the calendar and move to lower risk environments as length of day changes. They are thinking strategically. You don't leave for Northern Europe in November. You leave for the Carribbean. You don't leave for Tortola in May. You go to Trinidad or Maine. Or even western Caribbean as risk is somewhat lower. If you can't leave then you do whatever you can before the season to mitigate risk. Friend works marine refrigeration up here in New England. His saga 43 is down in st.croix. Boat is left stripped and on hurricane mooring. He accepts the risk knowing he may lose the boat even doing all he can with in the realities of his life. But he's thinking strategically. His life isn't at risk. BTW his boat did just fine.
Yes we all screw up even knowing schedules kill. We all miss that one thing that fails at the worst time. We all head up thinking tactically when the storm hits instead of just line squalls or gales. We all head up thinking tactically when the weld in the vang fitting or a stay fails or someone is injured or sick. Still thinking in days instead of weeks or months is tactical not strategic thinking. Look at VM, Afghanistan, N.Korea and tell me is that a way to fight a war? Yes sometimes you need to think aggressively and be competitive. But you need to pick your fights. It's isn't about lack of stones or making that extra buck. Safety first is posted every where in high risk places for a reason.


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## ScottUK (Aug 16, 2009)

Arcb said:


> But when your followers go lipping off about nonsense, somebodies going to keep them in check.


The only nonsense has been your drivel.

Case in point - do you not keep watch when you are moving your boat? Why do you do that? Because it reduces risk. I can go on but the idea is so apparent and simple I should not have to but you continually and, I believe, intentionally miss the point.

I am not a follower of anyone (except, maybe, my wife) but I do remember your trolling of Smack when you first joined this forum. I think a large percentage if not most of your first 50-100 posts exhibit this though I am going from memory here and do not care enough to research it.

As far as your question of reducing risk, yesterday I studied a way of getting more lines on the starboard side of the bow so the boat will be more secure when I leave for the UK in a fortnight. I also bought some replacement acrylic for a port light I am going to re-bed. Both can be considered acts of reducing risk. There could be other smaller acts but I can't be bothered to remember. I do appreciate your interest though.


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## Arcb (Aug 13, 2016)

No, I am not saying its all about money. 

I have never argued in favour of out running a hurricane. I haven't. Show me if I have.

The OP asked if he was better off in Maine or Florida for hurricane season. I gave no opinion on outrunning hurricanes, too much liability in that argument for me. 

My points have been. 

1)Weather routing and storm avoidance are legitimate tactics. 
2)There is no rule about the recreational skipper needing to constantly reduce risks. Its a sport. Be smart, have fun. 

Edit: Yes, Outbound, I agree with you about pro skippers not being blindly mercenary. But most of the ones I know would be willing to accept a little more risk in their lives for an extra $50k or 60k a year. I also agree that a boat should be made seaworthy for any voyage it intends to embark upon.


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## outbound (Dec 3, 2012)

A like the above post but my exposure has been one of the jobs of pro captains is to explain to owners how to think strategically. Owners come all sizes and dispositions but good captains have the people skills to get them to act reasonably. Agree sometimes hard to do. Recent example.
Friend offered a job to bring a 60+ from Northern California to Barth for the races. Owner wanted him to fly to California just before a minimum time window to complete trip. Owner wanted boat locally available for his corporate functions and day sails. Owner wanted to choose the other crew. Friend politely explained how this wasn't in owners best interest. Friend offered his services if he had at least a week on the boat before leaving. Boat was brand new and just splashed two weeks prior. Friend also stipulated he vet crew suggested by owner and have opportunity to choose one of his own. Lastly he be given sufficient time for transport to allow passage to safely occur and still have boat in Barth a few days of before race day. Owner wouldn't commit to terms. Friend said call me back if you change your mind. He was prepared to lose the job rather than his life. He knew if he lost a boat there would be little work down the road as his rep would take a hit.
Owner spoke with other owners. Told requests reasonable and prudent. My friend got the job did the transport and got a juicy bonus.
So maybe some pro captains push the window but from the little I know a fair number don't.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)




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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

More info on RichardB...



> I was waiting for word of Richard's return to St. John.
> 
> I knew he would have taken his beloved Goddess Athena to sea to get out of the way of Irma.
> 
> ...


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## Deina (Aug 28, 2017)

> "two hours before the eye hit St. John."


Two *days* before & he might have had a chance. Why did he wait so long?

Sleep well Richard!


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## VIEXILE (Jan 10, 2001)

They watched him sail out. It made no sense, unless he thought he could singlehand and ride out a same day Cat 5. There was no "running." Most feared the worst as soon as Irma hit. His boat was anchored out beyond Elliot's boat Silver Cloud, which itself (a big steel beast) ended up on the rocks. They got it off right after Irma. Elliot is now going around with Alan (Coral Bay Marine) trying to figure out what is salvageable and what isn't, letting the owners know that they can contact. My buddy just called me and says Alan called this morning. He was all ready to take his gear down and start working on the boat. Alan says it was chin deep with water inside, completely shot as a result of Maria. Right after Irma, it was almost salvageable. Did manage to get the generator, outboard and some other odds and ends off. No more 40 footer. Flights for November cancelled. 

My friends that ran to Vieques (two full days ahead) made it with some caprail damage and ugliness due to mangrove rash. The storm surge from Maria (they had run from Irma, did the Vieques Mangroves, went back to St. Thomas, turned and burned it back to Vieques) was 6 to 8' and put them, in a 48' 45,000# sloop, up onto the mangroves. At least three 90 degree knockdowns and no rigging damage. Maple Leaf is a tough boat. It took them a couple of days with winches, power boats, dinghies, saws and a lot of labor to get the boat off the mangroves. No leaks. Except the port light that simply sucked out of the boat when Maria was overhead. They're back on the mooring in St. Thomas now.


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## smackdaddy (Aug 13, 2008)

Yeah, if the story holds that he left in the eye - there was something going on here more than "outrunning". Even so, I wish his family and friends peace.

As to understanding the strength of hurricanes, our boat shrugged off a direct hit from Cat 2 Irma - and we've already seen what Cat 5 did to the Carib. Here's Cat 4 at Key West which was not a direct hit...

You Tube





You Tube








"]Hurricane Irma, Key West [Live Storm Footage included] - YouTube[/URL]

This should give you an idea as to the exponential strength of the Saffir-Simpson scale.


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